Why did India give China a stumbling block in Nepal?

About the happiest countries in the world, we are familiar with developed Nordic countries such as Denmark, Switzerland and Norway. However, we will also see that this country is the poorest country in the world and the country with the highest happiness index, that is Nepal. This seems a little puzzling. Even if there are many ascetic monks in Nepal, their realm is higher than ours, but without material guarantee, how can we make the spirit rich? Therefore, Yun Shijun, more willing to believe that promoting Nepal in this way is more due to the economic effect of tourism.

From a geographical point of view, Nepal seems to be a vassal of India. However, the relationship between this small mountain country and India is not as close as expected, but it is close to China and even annoys India many times.

In the context that India regards China as its biggest rival in the game, it is naturally restrained by India geographically, and its own strength is also very weak. Why does Nepal dare to offend the intimacy between India and China? Can India tolerate this kind of behavior in Nepal? Yun Shijun will make a brief analysis.

Nepal is at the southern foot of the Himalayas, facing Tibet across the mountain in the north; East, west and south are surrounded by India. Although it is also adjacent to China, the Himalayas and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are solid geographical barriers. Its area is only 147, square kilometers and its population is 28.5 million. Topographically, the country is a typical small mountainous country from north to south, followed by mountains, valleys and hills and plain grasslands.

From the geographical point of view, Nepal is connected with the North India Plain and belongs to a part of South Asia. In this case, it is naturally influenced by India. In view of the disproportionate size and strength gap between Nepal and India, Nepal seems to have no reason to become an independent country.

In ancient times, Nepal did belong to Indian civilization, but it did not belong to India politically. As we all know, ancient Indian civilization was severely divided, and it was difficult to form a unified centralized pattern itself. As a result, there is a situation in which the local core area is divided, not to mention unifying the marginal mountainous areas like Nepal. On the contrary, Nepal is closely connected with the rich Ganges Plain, which leads to the ethnic groups living in this poor land of Nepal. Heaven used to plunder the Ganges Plain to get the benefits it wanted, and thus developed a brave national character. Later, the Gurkha cavalry, which became world-famous in the British period, was composed of Nepalese.

However, the hot weapons after the industrial civilization ended the military superiority of Nepal's individual military courage when the cold weapons were used.

Hot weapons based on industry need abundant water resources and lowland plains. In this way, the geographical strength of the North India Plain has been greatly enhanced, which has formed an irreversible geographical advantage for other parts of the South Asian subcontinent, making it possible for India to integrate marginal and backward areas.

In this case, it seems even more impossible for Nepal to remain independent. However, Nepal has special conditions,

first, the independence of geographical conditions. The whole territory of Nepal is mountainous. Under modern civilization, although the role of mountains in maintaining geographical independence has been weakened, it is not all gone.

second, ethnic differences. Because of their proximity to Tibet, Nepalese aborigines belong to the Sino-Tibetan yellow race. Although Indian immigrants of Aryan race keep pouring in, they only live in the southern plains, which makes Nepal and India maintain certain ethnic differences.

However, these two factors are not enough to keep Nepal independent. Especially after getting rid of British colonial rule, the Indian people's thoughts of ethnic chauvinism flooded and tried their best to seek the dominance of the South Asian subcontinent. In this case, Nepal has become the backyard of India, and its internal affairs and diplomacy are controlled by India.

because of its special geographical position, Nepal has to be controlled by India.

However, Nepal sees the hope from China that it will no longer be controlled by India.

Before the founding of New China, it did not have the ability to exert influence on South Asia. Although Nepal and China are neighbors, China has little influence on Nepal's internal affairs and diplomacy.

After the founding of New China, China has the ability to directly manage the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau for the first time, and even has the technical possibility of crossing the Himalayas and projecting its geographical influence to South Asia.

The Sino-Indian border war became the turning point of Nepal's "pro-China". In the Sino-Indian War, India was defeated. Due to geographical restrictions, China, who won the battle on the battlefield, had to withdraw from southern Tibet. However, the military victory still makes all countries in the world sit up and take notice.

Nepal also smells its chance to get rid of Indian control.

Now, the geo-isolation of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has been seriously weakened, and China has the ability to exert influence on South Asia. At this time, Nepal's proper pro-China can effectively hedge India's pressure on itself.

However, the structural geopolitical contradiction between China and India remains the same. If China can further its relations with Nepal, it can extend its influence to the southern foothills of the Himalayas, thus strengthening its containment of India.

As a result, Sino-Nepalese relations quickly warmed up. In July 1963, the Sino-Nepalese Highway broke ground and was declared completed in 1967.

The China-Nepal Highway is very important. For China, it has gained a modern access to South Asia, thus enhancing its influence on Nepal and even South Asia. For Nepal, there is a bargaining chip in the face of Indian oppression. In 1969, Nepal asked India to withdraw the Indian military delegation stationed at the army headquarters in Kathmandu and the Indian military personnel at the northern border post since 1953, which is the best embodiment.

Of course, the China-Nepal Highway can't completely change Nepal's pattern of being clamped down by India. After all, India is not easy to provoke. In 197, it launched economic sanctions against Nepal: Indonesia's trade and transit treaty expired, but India refused to renew it. Since then, India has often used economic sanctions to restrict Nepal.

Nepal, which lives in the inland mountainous areas, must pass through China and India for external traffic. Although China's strength far exceeds that of India, it borders on the Tibetan Plateau, which is the most marginal, with the lowest economic value and the least developed transportation. This restriction determines that the role of the China-Nepal Highway is more political and military, but the economic role of Nepal is not obvious. This also determines that Nepal is still unable to get rid of Indian control.

With the passage of time, China's national strength has increased dramatically, and its scientific and technological level has advanced rapidly, which makes it possible for China-Nepal relations to develop further. If the China-Nepal railway in the demonstration becomes a reality, Nepal's real independence will be possible.

why do you say that?

first, it will further expand China's political and military influence in south Asia. Although it is impossible for Nepal to allow China's military forces to enter, as long as the China-Nepal Railway exists, Nepal will have the confidence to play a political game with India, and with the assistance of China, India will not dare to be too reckless with Nepal.

Second, economically, change Nepal's dependence on India. Compared with highways, railways have higher transportation efficiency, lower logistics costs and are less restricted by natural conditions. In addition, China has achieved remarkable economic strength through decades of reform and development, and its economic influence on Nepal will be stronger by virtue of railways.

The concrete manifestation is that with more convenient railways, some high-value natural resources in Nepal can be effectively transported to the mainland of China. In addition, the number of tourists from China will increase significantly compared with the past, which will be very effective in stimulating the tourism economy of Nepal. These increasingly close bilateral economic activities mean that India's economic and trade monopoly on Nepal will be further broken.

However, the roof of the world in front of us determines that neither railway nor highway can make China-Nepal ties reach the height between Nepal and India. Even so, Nepal's vassal status can be changed to a considerable extent. Coupled with the fact that China is far stronger than India, it can also make up for the limitations caused by the geographical alienation between China and Nepal in economic exchanges, and it also enables China to provide Nepal with political support beyond geographical restrictions.

As long as China has an overwhelming advantage over India, it is possible that its influence on Nepal will reach or approach India, that is, the balance of power between China and India in the region will be formed.

Once a balance of power is formed, Nepal's own role will be highlighted, and its political attitude will determine the country's direction and ownership. Of course, for Nepal, it is in Nepal's best interest to uphold neutrality, help the weak to overcome the strong within the region and maintain the balance of power.

due to the limited land, it is decided that China can't control Nepal. China would also like to see the result of turning Nepal from a vassal of India into a strategic buffer between China and India.

however, India is not happy. A good backyard turned out to be a municipal garden for two families.

Of course, India doesn't want the gap with China to widen. Once this disparity reaches a certain level, the balance of power between China and India in Nepal will be inevitable. At that time, even if there are 1 and 1 unwilling people in India, they can only sigh. Nepal has achieved the long-standing goal of establishing a neutral and peaceful country.