Thirty years later, Russia is still in deep trouble. What will happen in the future?

Russia is the largest country in the world and has a glorious history. From Russia to the Soviet Union, Russia's strength has developed from a world-class power to a superpower. However, with the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia not only lost a lot of territory, but also the country's economic system was destroyed and its strength was greatly damaged. But after the disintegration, Russia still has a territory of 6.5438+0.7 million square kilometers. With the legacy of the Soviet Union, it is still a world-class power that keeps pace with Central Europe. However, although Russia has a rich family background, the situation facing the country is even more severe. Internally, the Russian economic system has collapsed, and the country's livelihood depends on resource exports. The geographical structure of the country has the defect of attaching importance to the west but neglecting the east, and the national hidden dangers are serious-ethnic minorities living in marginal areas lack a sense of identity with Russian civilization; Externally, Russia is located in the northern center of Eurasia, and there are structural geopolitical contradictions with almost all major external forces (the United States, Europe and even China). Even if some countries have not turned against Russia for various reasons, they will be willing to fight with Russia as long as the conditions and timing are right. ? Russia is in such a situation that there is no room for "defense" and it can only advance by leaps and bounds. There are only two final results, either returning to the glory of the Soviet era or disintegrating again and withdrawing from the mainstream countries. It is not normal for Russia to be half dead as it is now. So, what is more likely to happen in Russia? According to the current situation, Yun believes that the possibility of Russia's second disintegration in the future is slightly greater for the following reasons. First of all, Russia's geopolitical structure is flawed. Russia's territory looks compact, but the core area of the headquarters is the eastern European plain at the westernmost end of the country, and the territory of North Asia is vast, not only far from the headquarters, but also with high latitude and harsh environment. Therefore, the development and utilization of North Asia and the acceptance of its influence are greatly reduced. Eastern Europe Plain is not a world-class geo-plate, and its geo-potential is limited, so the geo-structure of Russia is unstable. When the country is strong, the border areas can be controlled by the headquarters, but when the national strength declines, the border areas are easy to separate, and the disintegration of the Soviet Union is the best example. Of course, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia's internal separatist tendency has been greatly weakened, but Russia's emphasis on the West and the huge span between the East and the West have not changed. Therefore, with the decline of Russia's national strength, its separatist tendency gradually appears. Secondly, the current situation of Russia's predicament. Russia, which inherited the mantle of the Soviet Union, eased the economic downturn to some extent because of Putin's coming to power. However, this has not reversed the pattern of economic difficulties. Coupled with the Ukrainian crisis and economic sanctions, Russia suffered another major blow. Perhaps, some people will say that this is short-lived and phased. After all, Russia suffered great setbacks in history, and it didn't take long to recover its vitality and grow into a superpower second only to the United States. From this perspective, as long as Russia is stable, it is possible to rise again. Of course, this statement is not unreasonable. Russia has a territory of170,000 square kilometers. This family property alone seems to be enough to support Russia to make a comeback and return to its peak. However, this is only the appearance, and the situation facing Russia today is not the same as that of the Soviet Union. ? First, on the economic level. When the Soviet Union was founded, it was the end of the second industrial revolution, and the revolutionary achievements entered the popularization period. This provided scientific and technological support for the Soviet Union, which later became an industrial power, to develop and utilize desert land. However, although the industrial scale of the Soviet Union has increased rapidly, the quality is not high (except for the military industry and a few supporting heavy industries, other systems can even be called shoddy). However, this was not a problem at the time. The world is in the popularization period of the second industrial revolution, and the color gap is not obvious. Moreover, as the representative of the second industrial revolution, machine manufacturing takes unit output and unit resource consumption as the standard of quality evaluation to a great extent. Therefore, Russia, which has a lot of land to be developed and a lot of mineral resources, can make up for it with industrial scale. However, the disintegration of the Soviet Union was the outbreak of the third scientific and technological revolution. This scientific and technological revolution is based on the scientific and technological content of products, representing the same type of products, and the level of scientific and technological content determines their different values. However, the technological content of Russia's industrial system other than military industry is inherently insufficient. In the past, the gap in quality could be made up by scale. However, this method is more than enough for the third scientific and technological revolution. The iteration speed of the third scientific and technological revolution is very fast, which makes Russia unable to make up for the gap with mainstream countries in the industrial system, but is left further and further. It has been more than twenty years since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, and Russia's industrial system has not been rebuilt on a large scale, which also proves that it is not suitable for the third scientific and technological revolution. At the same time, changes in the scale of economic development also restrict Russia. When the Soviet Union was founded, it created profits by developing and utilizing vast territory. But this method is not applicable in modern times. At present, the global economic development model has become a trend. Through the integration of global economic chain, big countries have turned most developed regions in the world into their own profit-making platforms. This has greatly dispelled Russia's advantages. No matter how big the territory of Russia is, it is bigger than the whole world; Moreover, the degree of development of most Russian territories is very low, and the income generated is far less than that generated by economic integration in developed regions around the world. Of course, Russia is also willing to join the globalization chain. But Russia's industrial system has collapsed and there are no competitive industrial products. Even if the Russian industrial system catches up with the times, it is a threat to the United States, China, Europe and * * *, so it is impossible for these major forces to fully open their minds to it. As for other marginal forces, they are small in scale and far from Russia, and Russia cannot benefit from globalization. Coupled with the rise of China, the development momentum of western globalization has weakened, and the tentacles of Russian expansion interests have become more slender. From the geopolitical point of view, Russia's future situation is also very unfavorable. Due to its geographical location, Russia has structural contradictions with major global geopolitical forces such as the United States, China, Europe and * * *, which brings hidden dangers to Russia's national security pattern. Of course, these major forces will not unite against Russia. Therefore, some people think that the situation in Russia is not as difficult as imagined. After all, China can break through the blockade. But in fact, the situation in Russia is far worse than that in China. China is located on the eastern edge of the Eurasian continent, and there is no structural geopolitical contradiction with Europe, and the conflict with * * * is not obvious. Although there is a serious structural geopolitical conflict between China and Russia, this contradiction has been effectively suppressed due to the situation of joint resistance to the United States. Coupled with the strong rise of China, China has taken the initiative in Sino-Russian relations. Therefore, only the United States and China have structural contradictions, easing the political pressure on China. Moreover, the characteristics of the United States as a capitalist country make it easier for China to carry out effective checks and balances through economic bundling. ? On the other hand, Russia is different. Russia's geographical location and huge territory make it have structural contradictions with the major global geopolitical forces such as the United States, China, Europe and * * *. The space for strategic transformation between Russia and Europe and between Russia and Europe is not as broad as that between China and Europe. The pattern between China and Russia has also undergone major changes. With the strong rise of China, Russia reversed its dominant position in China. This represents that Russia will face a powerful China on the road to rejuvenation. In addition, North Asia bordering China is a barren marginal plate, which can't be compared with the three adjacent plates of North China, Northeast China and Northwest China in China. Therefore, in the Sino-Russian strategic pattern, Russia will be severely restricted by China. Although China and Russia are now in the honeymoon period because of their common resistance to the United States, when China builds a new East Asian order and has the strength to compete with the United States, the honeymoon period between China and Russia is likely to come to an end naturally. With Russia's huge and weak body, if it loses another powerful ally, its road in international politics will be even more difficult. To sum up, the lack of Russia's geographical structure, its discomfort with the new economic model, and complex external conditions make Russia's road to revival difficult. Coupled with changes in the international environment, Russia does not have enough time to change. So it is difficult to guess the future outcome of Russia now, but if it is not handled carelessly, it is not without the possibility of a second disintegration. Of course, Russia is not completely without opportunities. Not to mention subjective efforts. Objectively speaking, with the warming of the earth's climate, the thawing of the Arctic Ocean and the opening of new navigation channels, Russia in trouble may usher in a once-in-a-thousand-year turnaround. Why is the Arctic Ocean route so important to Russia? What specific changes will global warming bring to Russia? Pay attention to WeChat official account: Yunshi, Yunshijun will continue to interpret it for you in the next section. This paper is the eighth section of the marble geopolitics series 13 1-Russia. To understand the inside story of the big country game and analyze the logic of political depth, please use WeChat to search the official account of WeChat: Yunshi, and watch all the geopolitical series articles of Yunshijun.