Urgently seeking the Chinese translation of Crash!

Translator: Jiang Ying Ye Zhen

Subtitle: How does society choose success or failure?

ISBN: 7532744892

Title: Crash

Page count: 527

Pricing: 40 pounds

Publishing House: Shanghai Translation Publishing House

Binding: paperback

Publication year: April 2008

In Diamond's view, the reason for the rise of human civilization is simple. However, the collapse of human civilization is not so easy to explain.

First, how did civilization collapse?

1998, professor of geography and physiology at UCLA, jared? Jared diamond published a book called Guns, Bacteria and Steel, which won him numerous honors. 10 years later, another book written by Diamond describing the rise and fall of human history, Collapse, was published in China.

Guns, germs and steel describe the rise of human civilization. Diamond attributed the success or failure of civilization to three factors: gun germs and steel, and the causes of these three decisive factors all point to one point: the development of agriculture and animal husbandry. Diamond used a large number of examples to prove that agriculture and animal husbandry developed first in some areas, not because people there were born smart or hardworking, but because wild animals and plants suitable for domestication happened to grow in that land.

This theory is so simple and complete that readers are filled with the pleasure of "suddenly realizing" when reading Guns, Germs and Steel. This kind of pleasure hardly exists in the collapse, because Diamond did not find a clear and accurate explanation for the collapse of human civilization like the former. However, this is not Diamond's intention. Before writing this book, he felt that he had found a "ultimate theory", that is, the deterioration of the ecological environment. However, with the deepening of writing, Diamond found that in addition to the deterioration of ecological environment, climate change (not only global warming, but also ice age, volcanic eruption and so on. ), strong neighbors, reduced aid from friendly forces and wrong countermeasures can all be used to explain the collapse of different civilizations. Although these five culprits are related, they have different connotations. This is Tolstoy's famous saying: Happy families are all alike, and each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.

In fact, many scholars have different explanations for the collapse of civilization. Arnold, a British historian and author of A Study of History? According to arnold toynbee, a civilized society was led by a few "creative elites" in the early stage, but later, due to the hereditary system, a group of mediocre people were pushed into leadership positions, which eventually led to the collapse of civilization. Joseph, an American anthropologist and author of The Collapse of Complex Society? Joseph tainter believes that with the development of civilization, the social structure will certainly become more complicated. According to the theory of diminishing marginal utility in economics, the more complex the organizational structure of a society, the higher the cost of solving problems. In the end, the cost will be too high for natural resources to meet, so the collapse is inevitable.

In addition, many scholars believe that the epidemic of plague is also the root cause of the collapse of many ancient civilizations. Even Diamond himself discussed this in detail. In the book Guns, Germs and Steel, Diamond explained with detailed data that the demise of Indian civilization in South America was not due to the guns of the Spanish army, but the smallpox virus they brought, which had nothing to do with the ecological environment in South America.

In that case, is it necessary to read "The Collapse of Diamond"? The answer is yes. Although Diamond did not regard the ecological environment as the only reason for the collapse of civilization, he proved with a large number of vivid examples that the deterioration of the ecological environment was the main reason for the collapse of many civilizations in history. However, society can choose a better way to deal with the deterioration of the ecological environment. Diamond chose "How does society choose success or failure?" As the subtitle of this book, I try to use this book to guide readers to learn from their ancestors, sum up historical lessons with a scientific attitude, and avoid repeating the mistakes of those ancient societies that have collapsed.

Second, how to learn from history?

Modern people's attitude towards tradition has two extremes. Many racists believe that it was the uncontrolled deforestation of ancient "indigenous people" that led to the disappearance of many virgin forests. However, extreme environmentalists believe that all ancient people lived in the Garden of Eden, and we should give up the modern lifestyle and go back to the past.

These two attitudes obviously made Diamond very dissatisfied, and he couldn't wait to give them a blow in the preface. "The problems of modern society are different from those of the past. We should not naively think that we can find a solution to the present by learning from the lessons of the past. " Diamond said: "The ancients had no words and could not benefit from the warnings brought by previous examples of social collapse. Their destruction of the ecological environment is an unforeseen and unexpected tragedy, so it cannot be attributed to blind obedience or conscious egoism morally. "

Diamond took Iceland and Greenland as examples to explain the advantages and disadvantages of these two extreme practices. These two islands are extremely fragile places in ecological environment. After suffering a lot, the vikings who immigrated to Iceland took extremely conservative actions and refused all new attempts, so they have survived to this day. On the contrary, the Vikings who immigrated to Greenland stuck to the European way of life on the island, grazing heavily and spending a lot of manpower and material resources to build churches, which led to the complete disappearance of the virgin forest in Greenland and the rapid deterioration of the ecological environment. In the end, all these vikings died. At the same time, the Inuit immigrants from North America to Greenland survived tenaciously on the island.

Traditions are good and bad. If we stick to tradition indiscriminately, the result is likely to be very different.

People who advocate adhering to tradition often scoff at science and technology, but Diamond proved that the power of science is a double-edged sword with a large number of examples. If it is used well, it can achieve remarkable results, and if it is not used well, it will commit suicide. For example, replacing toxic ammonia-containing refrigerant with freon was once considered as the embodiment of scientific and technological progress. I didn't expect Freon to destroy the ozone layer, so I had to stop it urgently and suffered heavy economic losses. Diamond illustrates through this example that new technology may bring benefits to mankind, but it is also likely to bring new problems. We must treat the environment from now on, and we can't expect to invent new high-tech methods to solve the environmental problems left over from now. The effect may not be good, but the cost is definitely higher.

However, environmental protection cannot be separated from scientific guidance. For example, in order to protect forests, the California government prohibits any form of logging and uses planes to prevent mountain fires. As a result, young trees can grow wildly, providing a "ladder" for mountain fires to burn upwards. Once the mountain fire from the surface reaches the canopy, it will spread rapidly and be difficult to control. This is the main reason for the continuous mountain fires in California in recent years. The California government's approach seems to be environmentally friendly, but the result is counterproductive.

High technology is often associated with multinational corporations, which are often regarded as death by environmentalists. Similarly, Diamond thinks that big companies must be treated in two ways, because big companies have great influence, and only with their help can environmental protection be truly effective. Diamond used a chapter to describe the situation of two oil companies on Guinea Island, one of which seriously damaged the environment and the other became a paradise for many rare animals on the island. Diamond firmly believes that if people strictly and effectively supervise big companies, big companies can become role models for environmental protection.

The essence of this book is Diamond's research on several islands. The geographical features of the island are very special, which can be regarded as a closed anthropological laboratory to some extent. Diamond studied the situation of dozens of Pacific islands and came to an interesting conclusion: those especially large and small islands can often enter the track of sustainable development, while medium-sized islands are most prone to ecological collapse. Diamond believes that the big island is prone to dictators, and the small island will become a complete democratic paradise. Whether the former's "top-down" or the latter's "bottom-up", these two management modes will produce better results. The worst-case scenario is medium-sized island countries such as Easter Island and Mayan civilization in Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Due to various reasons, a unified empire did not form, which led to years of warlord melee, the ecosystem gradually declined and finally collapsed.

Diamond drew a novel conclusion from these examples. He thinks that autocracy is sometimes good for environmental protection. For example, Japan's Tokugawa shogunate era and Dominica's dictator Chukilo all made great contributions to the country's environmental protection. In contrast, the latter is more thought-provoking, because Dominica and Haiti are on the same island, and the natural environment is almost the same, but Haiti's dictator did not pay attention to environmental protection, which led to ecological disaster.

The above cases have different forms, and there seems to be no "panacea". But the superficial "chaos" just verifies the central idea that Diamond wants to express: dealing with environmental problems must be "concrete analysis of specific problems", and any prescription that can cure all diseases may be proved wrong. This is the biggest revelation of the book "Collapse" to readers.

Third, the China issue.

Diamond devoted a chapter to China. Diamond's attitude towards China can be described as "cautious optimism". On the one hand, he is worried about the increasingly serious environmental problems in China, and at the same time, he highly praises the strict family planning policy implemented by the China government.

Diamond's view represents the attitude of most western scholars towards China. They are worried that once China's population of 654.38+300 million wants to reach the western standard of living, it will be unbearable for the earth. In fact, the population problem is not only a problem in China, but also the most fundamental environmental problem facing the earth. If the population on the earth keeps expanding, all the natural resources on the earth will be used up anyway.

Diamond did not propose a solution to the "ultimate problem" of environmental protection, but he was still "full of hope" for the future of the earth. However, diamonds cannot have any other choice. We only have one earth, and the earth is like an island in the vast universe. For the future of the earth, we can't choose "pessimism", we can only hold the greatest hope and do our best to protect it, otherwise the earth civilization will eventually escape the fate of collapse.