Development Trend of Proliferation Security Initiative

According to the current situation, the future development of PSI may show the following trends:

(1) The legal issues involved in PSI may be solved indirectly step by step, at least it will not form a strong constraint on interception activities. Although the interception activities of PSI violate some existing international laws and principles, its non-proliferation purpose is in line with the development of the international security situation. In addition to the attempt of the United States to attack a few hostile countries by using the Proliferation Security Initiative, the Proliferation Security Initiative is a supplement to the weak links of the existing international non-proliferation mechanism. Although it cannot end proliferation, it can play a role in stopping proliferation activities. If the participating countries of the Proliferation Security Initiative can further improve their rules of conduct and legal basis and eliminate some countries' doubts about it, it may attract more countries' participation and support. At present, the Proliferation Security Initiative is limited by some provisions of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. However, by signing bilateral boarding agreements with major flag countries, the United States can intercept suspicious ships flying the flags of countries that have signed agreements with it on the high seas. In addition, if the International Maritime Organization revises the Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Maritime Navigation under the impetus of the United States, the interception activities of the United States in the high seas and other sea areas will gain certain "legitimacy". Although Security Council resolution 1540 is not an authorization for the Proliferation Security Initiative, it is an important basis for the international community to oppose the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The United States used the interpretation of the resolution to turn a blind eye to the interception activities of the Proliferation Security Initiative. Although it is difficult for the United States to obtain a clear mandate or legal basis from the United Nations or international law, the issue of legitimacy gradually does not constitute an important obstacle to the development of the Proliferation Security Initiative.

(2) Although the number of countries participating in or supporting the Proliferation Security Initiative will not increase sharply in the future, it can at least remain stable or increase slightly. Judging from the current situation, the number of countries supporting or participating in the Proliferation Security Initiative will increase in the future, but it is impossible to surge. There are two main reasons for this. On the one hand, the United States strives for support in a targeted manner, focusing on the work of flag countries, transshipment countries, coastal countries and regional powers, and has little interest in those countries that are neither insignificant nor involved in proliferation activities. On the other hand, some countries are unwilling to participate in the Proliferation Security Initiative because of their own political, economic and security interests, so the number of countries that actually join will not increase significantly; However, with the vigorous promotion of the United States and other countries, more countries may express their verbal support for the Proliferation Security Initiative. Some non-participating countries may cooperate in some interception activities. Others continue to stay out of it and take a wait-and-see attitude.

(3) The tasks and objectives of PSI can be constantly adjusted according to needs. The Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) is a flexible "volunteer alliance", which can add tasks at any time as needed, and may expand the scope of activities in the future. In February 2004, when Bush gave a non-proliferation speech at the National Defense University, he suggested expanding the scope of PSI activities, and taking cracking down on various proliferation networks and activities and punishing relevant personnel as an important task for PSI participants. Some scholars argue that combating human trafficking, illegal immigration, drug smuggling and arms trade should be the task of the Proliferation Security Initiative. In fact, the United States does intend to use the Proliferation Security Initiative to curb North Korea's smuggling of counterfeit money and drugs. In the choice of the target countries of the Proliferation Security Initiative, the United States first focused on North Korea and Iran, and then extended to Syria, Sudan, Cuba and other countries. At the same time, non-state actors of the Proliferation Security Initiative will be strengthened.