Possible paths of real estate market

There are several possibilities for the future road of the property market:

First, the best result: what we have been doing is to freeze the property market, restrict purchases, loans and sales, and reduce the transaction volume extremely, and then wait for the arrival of the industrial revolution until the economy takes off again to support the property market. For details, please refer to the relevant terms of the crane administration. But now I'm afraid I won't get it.

Second, the most unfeasible: actively blasting foam is equivalent to actively detonating explosive charges. In fact, a few years ago, the conditions were met, because the explosive charge was smaller, but now it is absolutely impossible. In fact, the longer it takes, the worse it gets.

Third, there is a great possibility: under the unexpected attacks of subsequent interest rate hikes, tax cuts, appreciation of the US dollar, inflation caused by crude oil, trade wars, instigating Taiwan independence, etc. A large amount of capital will flow out, which will eventually lead to a decline in the property market. This kind is the most dangerous, but it is very possible now.

Fourth, the end of the road: in order to save the declining economy, the property market is completely loosened, the currency is over-developed, and hyperinflation is rampant, allowing real estate speculation. After extreme madness, it is inevitable that the property market will collapse, trapping everyone, and the high-level fleeing class will emigrate one after another, which is inevitable in Latin America.

Fifth, the biggest variable: local war. In those days, we abandoned the liberation of Taiwan Province Province and started the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea. Ensure the foundation of heavy industry in Northeast China, successfully land the "First Five-Year Plan" and lay the foundation of industrialization. Nowadays, the energy strategy of Taiwan independence will be a disaster in the end, with Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao, Greater Bay Area, Hainan Free Trade Ports and reclamation of islands in the South China Sea. So we can tolerate the honeymoon of Han Dynasty. Isn't it necessary to pull out the nail of Taiwan independence? If so, the economy has a new endorsement, and the economy (including the property market, of course) may turn around. But this is a risky move, gambling on the country's luck, so points are the biggest variable.

Finally, I quote a passage from nassim taleb's Anti-Vulnerability as the end:

"In a word, artificially suppressing fluctuations will not only make the system extremely fragile, but also the system will not present obvious risks. We said that fluctuation is information. In fact, these systems are often too calm, and there is an undercurrent under the surface. Although the public intention of political leaders and economic decision makers is to stabilize the system by suppressing fluctuations, the result is often counterproductive. These artificially restricted systems are more likely to lead to the "black swan" incident. Such an environment will eventually be hit hard. "