What is the development trend of China real estate market in the future?

Why the real estate price in China has been rising, so that the central government and local governments regard the real estate rise as a natural law that the sun rises in the east and the west sets, which is completely wrong. The only reason why China's real estate prices will rise all the way before 2020 is that China people have nothing before, and they are in abject poverty, with a per capita living area of less than 8 square meters. Then, in the process of entering the moderately developed countries, all economies are developing, people's living standards are growing rapidly, and every family has a strong demand for improving housing.

This round of strong demand is the biggest horse in China's economic carousel. 1980 food such as eating and drinking, 1990 household appliances and consumer goods, and automobiles in early 2000. After the rise of the merry-go-round, the biggest round of explosive growth from 2000 to 20 10 was the housing demand of China people. Among them, there are two huge demands. One is the improvement of urban population and the demand for new housing. Second, the new urban population from rural areas has a rigid demand for housing. These two rigid demands together constitute the real reason for the skyrocketing real estate in China in the 20 years from 2000 to 2020, and there is no other reason at all.

Then you will know when you see this. What really restricts the development of real estate is the demographic dividend. When the demographic dividend behind these two rigid demands disappears, everything will develop in the opposite direction. Any macro-control that tries to hinder this development trend is a gladiator. Just like the previous 20 years, no policy, whether it is restricting purchases or controlling loans, can hinder the rise of real estate. On the contrary, from the first day of the real estate bull market in 2000, the government did not realize the correct management method of real estate and knew nothing about the strict theory. The world is lighter than me, and the world is lighter than me. There is no concept at all. On the contrary, the world is heavier and I am heavier.

What do you mean, the world is heavier and I am heavier? It is when the whole world is chasing real estate that the government takes real estate as an alternative means of taxation to solve the financial difficulties of local governments and central governments. Drink poison to quench thirst. For every piece of land sold, 70% of the income is taken away by governments at all levels. Real estate developers can only earn 30%. Therefore, in the face of such dividends, local governments are as addicted as drugs, and so is the central government. How can real supervision be achieved in the arena where both athletes and referees participate? So what should the regulation be like in 2000? It is to divide all the millions of commodities in the national economy into four categories or four categories. The first category: people's livelihood commodities closely related to the national economy, such as grain, such as grain, such as gasoline, oil and diesel oil, such as basic means of production and means of subsistence, and commercial houses that meet people's basic living conditions; The second category: military products and technological products closely related to national security. The third category: luxury goods that have little to do with ordinary national life. For example, luxury goods, white jade, jade handicrafts, calligraphy and painting, financial derivatives, the fourth category: money itself. Then, as the key to national macroeconomic governance, where do you put real estate? In the first step, the state must strictly control its price trend and directly intervene its supply and demand relationship through tangible hands. Speaking of food, how do you know that food prices should be regulated? Because you are afraid that ordinary people can't eat, you have changed the grain into commercial housing. You forget that all commercial housing should be directly supplied by the state and priced directly within the limit of 30 square meters per capita living area. More than 30 square meters per capita is a house with a family of more than 90 square meters. If you want to let go, that is to say, the house itself should be divided into two categories, one is low-rent housing, the other is public rental housing, and the other is large villas. Don't worry about the big villa rising to the sky, because it has nothing to do with the people. And ordinary people can live a decent life without luxury. This standard is 30 square meters per capita, which is a universal standard and a biological standard for human habitation. Japan, the United States, Britain and Europe are all around this standard. The price of 200 square meters, 300 square meters and 500 square meters, you have to put it down before you can buy it. No restrictions, no loan restrictions, pure market regulation. This part of the house is rising higher and higher, which is not a bad thing for ordinary people, but a good thing. He has more motivation for life. On the other hand, white jade, jade, Wan Wen and calligraphy and painting can be fried as high as they want, because once they collapse, they will not affect the operation of the real national economy and national security.

All currencies, for the first two kinds of commodities, are international livelihood commodities and scientific and technological military products of the national economy, and it is necessary to completely control supply and demand with tangible hands, which is the fundamental solution to the real estate problem.

So in 2020, the turning point of the demographic dividend I mentioned will definitely happen. Demographers have long told us. In 2000, demographers in China told us that the turning point of China's demographic dividend would happen sometime between 2020 and 2025. From that day on, the population of China will be negative.

Therefore, when China people don't have children today and China people don't want to have children and spend money, the price of real estate will fall. So what did it fall to? To what extent? How much space is there? This can also be used for data. Japan is very much like China. Houses in Japan reached their peak at 1988 and at 1988 to 1990. The most expensive house in Tokyo is almost $950 thousand per square meter. Such a house has fallen by 75% in Japan, and the average house in Japan has fallen by 50%. Therefore, the houses in China, Beijing and Shanghai were undoubtedly the standard of Tokyo at that time, and the houses in Beijing and Shanghai have fallen by about 20% according to the highest point. 20%-25%, so how much do you think is left? Yes, there is still room for 50% decline. At present, there is still a 50% falling space between the houses in Beijing and Shanghai and the highest value, and this 50% falling space cannot be changed by any technical adjustment means and policy control means. It is only a matter of time before it is realized. Therefore, in this process, no matter how much the price is lower than the highest point, as long as there is a callback and a deal, and someone knocks at the door to buy your house, you must sell it. Because any rise is an illusion brought by the callback, do you think it will return to the golden age? Unless the baby birth rate returns to the golden age, if the baby birth rate in China is less than 654.38+million a year, it will never return to the golden age.

The houses in the core area of Shanghai can probably hold up, and the housing prices in Beijing are bottomless. You can refer to Zhengzhou or Shenyang or Xi 'an. Compared with these three cities, Beijing's educational resources are better, but all the educational resources will go to Xiong 'an, and the next thing will be made up by itself.

If you think that house prices will keep rising, just like the sun rises every day, this is a natural law, and you can only see the tax level, but not the monetary level. That look is really shameful. Property tax, besides destroying the stock market, can't restrain the rise of house prices in ten years.

Only by classifying commercial housing, the state attaches great importance to money and agricultural products, and makes a difference, and completely changes the supply and pricing model of ordinary commercial housing is the fundamental solution.

Seeing this, it is not difficult to understand that the immigration officers of the American Embassy, the Canadian Embassy, the Australian Embassy, the New Zealand Embassy and even the Maltese Embassy are all busy.