World Economic Growth and Changes of Resources and Environment

Since Britain started the industrial revolution for the first time in the middle of18th century, technological progress and industrialization have promoted each other, completely changing the basic pattern of the world economy, and the resources and environment have undergone earth-shaking changes. The direct result of industrialization is the improvement of people's quality of life, which is manifested in the improvement or improvement of per capita household appliances, car ownership, infrastructure and per capita living area in a country or a place. Based on the analysis of the relationship between economic growth and energy, metal minerals, cement consumption and environmental protection, this paper analyzes the general laws of economic growth and changes in resources and environment, so as to lay the foundation for meeting the needs of sustainable economic and social development in China.

I. Economic growth and energy consumption

18 The invention and use of the steam engine in the 1960s marked the beginning of the industrialized society of human society. In the more than 200 years since the industrial revolution, the accumulation of social wealth has exceeded the sum of thousands of years of agricultural society. The extensive use of large machines enables people to conveniently develop and utilize energy and mineral resources on a large scale and turn them into social wealth. With the rapid growth of human social wealth, there have also been problems such as population expansion, resource depletion and environmental pollution, which have become the restrictive factors for the sustainable development of human society. The relationship between economic development and energy consumption is mainly manifested in the continuous increase of total energy consumption, the continuous optimization of energy structure and the gradual decline of energy intensity.

-Total energy consumption continued to increase. From the development trend, a country's GDP is closely related to energy production and consumption. An important reason why developed countries can realize modernization is the large-scale development and utilization of energy resources. The richer the products, the richer the society, and the greater the production and consumption of energy. Since the industrial revolution, the total energy consumption in the world has continued to increase. Total fuel consumption is a typical example. 1857 Texas began large-scale oil exploration. According to the data released by BP World Energy Statistics in 2009, by the end of 2008, the global oil consumption was about 654.38+ 056 billion tons, of which only about 200 million tons were used in the first 40 years, less than 654.38+000 billion tons in the first 50 years of the 20th century and 654.38+046 billion tons in the second 50 years (Table 654.38+).

Table 1 1998 ~ 2008 Global Energy Consumption List Unit: million tons of oil equivalent.

Figure 1 1983 ~ 2008 global energy consumption trend chart

(According to BP's 2009 World Energy Statistics)

-upgrading the industrial structure and gradually optimizing the energy structure. With the progress of science and technology and the acceleration of social civilization, while upgrading the industrial structure, the energy structure is gradually optimized: firewood is the main energy source in agricultural society; Great changes have taken place in the energy composition since the industrial revolution. European countries used wood to make iron at the earliest stage of industrialization. With the increasing proportion of scrap steel in raw materials, electric furnaces are now used to make steel. The train used coal at first, but now the high-speed rail uses electricity. Generally speaking, since the industrial revolution, the energy structure has experienced the evolution from firewood to coal, coal to oil, oil and natural gas to coal. With the rise of global environmental protection movement, the development of renewable energy has been highly valued by all countries in the world. Especially in recent years, preventing global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions has become a hot spot in international environmental diplomacy. Renewable energy is developing rapidly, and its proportion in energy is gradually increasing. According to relevant research, the future energy structure changes are roughly shown in Figure 2.

Fig. 2 composition and development forecast of world primary energy (1940 ~ 2 100)

(According to W.E. Schollnberger and J.R.Frisch, Future Resource Crisis. 1982)

-With the completion of industrialization, the energy consumption per unit GDP in countries around the world is gradually decreasing. When Britain, the United States and other countries industrialized, there was no global energy shortage. In other words, the early industrialized countries have no obvious resource and environmental constraints in the process of industrialization, which is a natural development with no or few constraints. During the rapid development of Japanese industrialization, it just happened to catch up with the first oil crisis in the world. 1973 puts forward that economic growth under resource constraints can reduce energy consumption per unit GDP through scientific and technological innovation and structural adjustment, thus completing the historical task of industrialization (Figure 3). Due to the different supporting technologies of industrialization, the per capita energy consumption and its peak value are also different. Empirical research shows that the growth of per capita energy consumption in early industrialized countries will slow down only when the per capita energy consumption is large, while the peak energy consumption in later developed countries is obviously lower than the former. For example, before the per capita GDP of developed countries reached US$ 654.38+US$ 00,000, energy consumption increased rapidly: at US$ 654.38+US$ 00,000, the per capita energy consumption in Korea was 4.07 tons of standard coal (654.38+0997), that in Japan was 4.25 tons of standard coal (654.38+0980), and that in the United States was 8 tons of standard coal (658). Feng Fei, a researcher at the State Council Development Research Center, drew a conceptual model of energy intensity changes in various countries according to relevant research data (Figure 4).

Figure 3 Energy consumption curves per unit GDP of Britain, the United States, Japan and developing countries.

(Feng Fei. Electric power technology and economy. Issue 3, 2007)

Energy intensity change curves of major countries in the world.

(Feng Fei. Electric power technology and economy. Issue 3, 2007)

Second, economic growth and consumption of major metal minerals.

Similar to the law of energy consumption, with the expansion of the global economy, the total consumption of metal minerals is increasing, and the mineral consumption is positively correlated with the per capita income.

-consumption of metal minerals continued to grow. The total consumption of major mineral products in the world is increasing, which is reflected in the rapid growth of industrialization in some countries. For example, the consumption of resources increased rapidly after World War II, and fluctuated between 1973 and 2000. The decline in demand for mineral products in developed countries is partly due to the completion of urbanization and partly due to the transfer of high-consumption industries to developing countries; Lead is an exception, mainly because it is more toxic and is increasingly replaced by other materials (Figure 5).

Figure 5 Global mineral consumption growth trend

Wang, Wang, etc. Annual report on strategic research of global mineral resources 200 1. Global Mineral Resources Strategy Research Center, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences.2001)

-per capita steel consumption intensity changes with the increase of per capita income. From the change of per capita steel consumption, it can be found that in the early stage of industrialization (per capita GDP is 3000 ~ 15000 USD), the per capita consumption of major resources in developed industrialized countries increased rapidly, and in the later stage (per capita GDP exceeded 15000 USD), the absolute value of per capita consumption of major resources slowed down or even declined. Simply put, the per capita consumption intensity of mineral resources in a country or a place has gone through three stages: (low) rapid rise-(high) steady-(low) slow decline (Figure 6).

Figure 6 Relationship between World Steel Consumption and Per Capita GDP from 65438 to 0968

(Ma Jianming. Thoughts on the demand forecast of mineral resources (minerals). 2006)

-per capita steel consumption is closely related to per capita GDP. Generally speaking, per capita GDP and per capita steel consumption are positively correlated. From the graph of the relationship between per capita steel consumption and per capita GDP (Figure 7), we can see that: 1. Countries and regions with different income levels are roughly concentrated in two regions: the lower left corner of the graph is mainly developing countries and regions, with the main characteristics of low per capita GDP and per capita steel consumption. Developed countries and regions appear in the right center of the figure, characterized by high per capita GDP and per capita steel consumption. Secondly, South Korea and Taiwan Province Province of China are exceptions. When the per capita purchasing power parity is $20,000, the per capita steel consumption is about 800kg. The reason is that heavy chemical industry is the leading industry in South Korea and Taiwan Province Province of China, and export-oriented is its development strategy, and the steel strength of export products is high. Although the per capita GDP of Japan, Italy, Austria, Germany and other countries is similar to that of other developed countries, the per capita steel consumption is higher, because these countries also export a large amount of mechanical and electrical products.

Figure 7 Relationship between per capita steel consumption and per capita GDP

(Lu Xiaoming. Study on the relationship between mineral demand and economic development. China mineral demand forecast, resource guarantee analysis and sustainable development countermeasures and suggestions. 2006)

Third, economic growth and cement consumption.

Cement is a necessary material for urban development and infrastructure construction. The raw materials are non-metallic limestone and some industrial and domestic garbage. With the progress of science and technology and economic development, nonmetallic mineral products are widely used in the fields of architecture, metallurgy, chemical industry, light industry, petroleum, geology, machinery, agriculture, medicine, jewelry and environmental protection, and become irreplaceable materials, which are increasingly valued and favored by most countries in the world.

In the process of industrialization and urbanization, cement consumption presents certain laws. Take the United States as an example. From 1900, the cement production and apparent consumption in the United States showed a slow upward trend. According to the data of the International Trade Bureau of the US Department of Economic Affairs, by 2008, the cement production in the United States was 8 1 10,000 tons, and the apparent consumption was 92.52 million tons. From 1955, the net import of cement in the United States continued to grow, and by 2008, the cumulative net import reached11520,000 tons. 1906 to 2008, the cumulative cement production in the United States was 5.028 billion tons, and the cumulative apparent consumption was 5.440 billion tons (Figure 8).

Figure 8 1900 Changes of Cement Production and Apparent Consumption in the United States

Fourthly, the change of land use in the process of urbanization.

Non-renewable and immovable land is the most basic condition for urban development. One of the essence of urbanization is the development process that the utilization mode of natural resources such as land changes from extensive to intensive, and the degree of intensification changes from low to high.

In the process of industrialization, land use changes in different countries are different. The British industrial revolution was accompanied by the agricultural revolution marked by enclosure movement. The early enclosure movement turned cultivated land into a sheep farm, and later it was accompanied by the increase of cultivated land. From 1793 to 18 15, due to the interruption of trade with France, land reclamation reached its peak. By 1830, the land once called wasteland basically ceased to exist in Britain.

The cultivated land area in the United States also has a changing process. After the Civil War and its aftermath, the United States successively promulgated the Homestead Law and the Poor Land Law. A large number of immigrants planted seeds in the west, and the number of immigrants at home and abroad continued to increase. From 1862 to 1926, the federal government issued1390,000 hectares of land ownership certificates, covering an area of about 230 million acres. The area of agricultural arable land in the United States increased from 407 million acres in 1870 to 9 1965438 in 2004 (Figure 9).

. According to the statistics of the World Bank, in 2005, the cultivated land area in the United States decreased to 43 million acres, and it is still the largest country in the world.

Figure 9 Changes of agricultural land with GNP in the United States

Douglas North. American industrialization, in Apollo Stan, Habakkuk (Postan, M.M., Habakkuk, H.J.): Cambridge European Economic History (Volume VI). Beijing: Economic Science Press. 2002)

In the process of industrialization in Japan, the change of cultivated land area is characterized by a continuous decrease in quantity at first, and then a slow decrease (Figure 10). 1960, 1970 and 1980, the cultivated land decreased by 5000 hectares, 36000 hectares and 53000 hectares respectively. After 1980, the annual decrease is about 13000 hectares, which reflects the consistency between the completion of industrialization and the reduction of construction land occupation. Japan has experienced a process of cultivated land development, protection and control, and the reduction of cultivated land is closely related to the small land area and less cultivated land per capita. From 65438 to 0959, Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries promulgated "Japan's agricultural land conversion standard", aiming at ensuring excellent agricultural land, maintaining agricultural productivity and appropriately restricting agricultural land conversion.

Figure 10 1960 Changes in Japan's gross national product and arable land area

(South Jin Liang. Japan's economic development. Beijing: Economic Management Press. 6438+0992+008)

According to the research of American scholar Lester Brown, Japanese, Korean and China Taiwan Province Province lost more than one third of the arable land in the process of industrialization, which needs the special attention of China policy makers.

Verb (abbreviation of verb) economic development and environmental protection

The research shows that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between per capita income and pollutant discharge (Kuznets curve). If economic growth can eventually improve environmental quality, there is no need to slow down economic growth in order to protect the environment. Because of this, environmentalists and economists constantly verify the laws revealed by Kuznets curve. Here are some research results.

As part of the background research of the World Development Report (IBRD, 1992), some experts estimated the relationship between the environmental indicators of 10 and per capita income. These indicators are: lack of clean water, lack of urban sanitation facilities, level of suspended particulate matter in urban areas, concentration of sulfur dioxide, changes of forest area and annual logging from 196 1 to 1986, dissolved oxygen and Escherichia coli in river water, per capita urban garbage, per capita carbon dioxide emissions, etc. The results show that some indicators do conform to the Kuznets curve, including: the lack of clean water and the gradual improvement of urban sanitation facilities with the increase of income, but the increase of income leads to the deterioration of water quality, and the greenhouse gases that cause global climate change increase obviously with the increase of income; The same is true of the generation and discharge of urban garbage. The relationship between a country's per capita emissions and sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX) and suspended particulate matter (SPM) expressed by per capita income level conforms to the law revealed by the inverted U-shaped curve.

In this report, some experts use the data of world economic growth and population growth to evaluate the relationship between forest harvesting and SO2 emission and predict the global change trend from 1990 to 2025. The research on SO2 shows that the inflection point appears in the per capita GDP of $3,000. Global SO2 emissions will increase from 383 million tons in 1990 to11810 billion tons in 2025; The per capita SO2 emission will increase from 73kg in 1990 to 142kg in 2025. The forest coverage decreased from 40.4 million square kilometers in 1990 to 37.2 million square kilometers in 20 16, and increased to 37.6 million square kilometers in 2025. Because deforestation leads to the loss of biodiversity, this process is irreversible on the scale of biological evolution. By Roger Paalmann, translated by Hou et al. Economics of natural resources and environment. Beijing: China Economic Publishing House. 2002.

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Enlightenment of the relationship between world economic growth and resources and environment by intransitive verbs

1. No country can rely on local resources to achieve industrialization.

Due to the uneven geographical distribution of natural resources, no country can rely on local resources to achieve industrialization. Generally speaking, some countries are relatively rich in some minerals, while others are quite poor; Differences within a country can also be manifested incisively and vividly. For example, Kuwait, which is rich in oil, has little economic value except oil and gas resources. Only countries with vast territory, such as the United States, Russian Federation, China, Indian, Australian, Canadian and Brazilian, can be rich in total resources and complete in minerals. Even these resource-rich countries may have unsatisfactory structures or even structural shortages.

Take oil as an example. The world is rich in oil resources, but their distribution is extremely uneven. According to the assessment of the US Geological Survey (USGS) in 2000, under the existing economic and technical conditions, the final recoverable oil reserves in the world are about 356.745 billion tons, mainly distributed in the Middle East, and the recoverable oil resources are1356.78 billion tons, accounting for 38% of the total global oil resources; Followed by the former Soviet Union and North America, accounting for 17.27 and 590.29 million tons respectively, accounting for 17.3% and16.5% respectively; Europe is the least, only1465438+33 million tons, less than 4% of the world's final recoverable oil resources. So far, there are still about 654.38+028 billion tons of oil resources to be discovered in the world.

According to the Global Energy Statistics Report released by BP in June BP)2009, if Canadian oil sands reserves are excluded, by the end of 2008, the world's proven oil reserves were 65.438+25.8 million barrels, mainly distributed in the Middle East, and the remaining proven recoverable reserves were 75.44./kloc-0.00 billion barrels, accounting for 59.9% of the total remaining recoverable reserves in the world. The remaining proven recoverable reserves in other areas are less than 10% of the global total remaining recoverable reserves (Table 2).

Table 2 Global Remaining Proven Oil Reserves Unit: 654.38+0 billion barrels

Another example is solid mineral resources. The distribution of mineral resources in the world is very uneven. Relevant research shows that 46% of the total reserves of metal mineral resources are concentrated in a few large mines with only 0.25% mineral land, and in a few countries. Specifically, about 25 minerals are mainly concentrated in 3 ~ 5 countries. For example, 76.2% of coal reserves are concentrated in the United States, German, Russian, South Africa, Australia, China and India. 90% of iron ore reserves are distributed in Russia, the United States, Brazil, Australia, Canada, India, South Africa, Sweden, France, Venezuela and Libya, and the reserves of the first five countries account for 80%. 94% of manganese ore resources are concentrated in South Africa, Russia, Mexico, Gabon, Australia, Brazil and India, of which South Africa and Russia account for 88% of the reserves. South Africa, Kazakhstan, Zimbabwe, Finland, India, Brazil, Turkey and the Philippines account for 96% of the world's chromite reserves, and the top four countries account for 9 1.6%.

Most mineral resources such as iron, manganese and chromium in the world are concentrated in a few large or super-large deposits. For example, there are super-large iron mines in Kursk, Russia, with proven reserves of 42.6 billion tons, including rich ore reserves of 2,665,438+billion tons; The proven and predicted reserves of rich ore are about 82 billion tons, and the depth of 600 meters is estimated to be 290 billion tons, which is a shallow resource. Ukraine Krivorog iron ore basin reserves 2065438+ tons; There are 100 iron ore deposits in the "iron quadrangle" area of Minas-Jesra, Brazil, with a reserve of 22 billion tons; In Carajas iron mine area of Brazil, the proven reserves of rich iron ore reach 654.38+077 billion tons. In Hammersley iron mine area, hematite and hematite-goethite are of high grade, containing 54% ~ 62% iron, limonite containing 50% ~ 54% iron, with a reserve of 32 billion tons and a grade of 24.9 billion tons of 54% ~ 64%, which can be mined in open pit. The 65,438+billion-ton super-large manganese deposits include Moanda manganese-bearing layer in Gabon, Matwang type ore in Kara Harima, Morango manganese-bearing layer in Mexico and Lapid-Crick iron-manganese layer in Canada. In Gabon, the manganese-bearing layer in Moanda has proven reserves of 220 million tons, with an average grade of 50%; Mamat Wangxing type ore reserves in Kalahari manganese ore field are about 6543.8+03204 million tons, of which the recoverable reserves are 474 million tons, with an average grade of about 39%. If the recoverable reserves of Kassel deposit are added, the average grade is 48%, and the total estimated reserves of Kalahari manganese ore field are 654.38+0.3.1300 million tons, of which the recoverable reserves are 86.5438+0.3 billion tons.

The sustainable exploration and development of resource producing areas can ensure the stable supply of global resources; The dislocation of production and consumption places does not affect the exploration, development and processing of mineral resources. Especially in developing countries such as China, it is neither realistic nor possible to completely pin the supply of resources on foreign markets. The so-called unrealistic is because there are unsafe factors in the supply of resources, and the so-called impossible is because no country can meet such a large market demand in China. It should be the guiding principle and foothold for China to ensure the supply security of mineral products to find out the family property and base itself on the domestic market.

2. The resource intensity is inverted U-shaped or inverted S-shaped.

The empirical study shows that the resource intensity (metal consumption per unit GDP) is generally characterized by an inverted U-shaped curve, and the growth relationship between per capita metal consumption and per capita GDP is "S" (Figure 1 1). After the per capita GDP reaches $65,438+$0,000, a country or a place enters the "climbing" stage of energy and resource consumption in the process of industrialization.

Figure 1 1 inverted U-shaped pattern of unit GDP consumption of mineral resources and S-shaped pattern of per capita consumption.

There is an "S" curve between per capita metal consumption and per capita GDP. The specific reasons are as follows: First, with the economic growth and the change of economic structure, especially industrial structure, the elasticity of resource consumption first increases and then decreases. Before a country's economy entered a high-speed industrial growth, the "food and clothing" industries, mainly agriculture and textiles, were often the leading industries for economic growth, with low resource consumption intensity. After entering industrialization, resource consumption began to increase continuously, reaching the highest level in history in the middle and late stage of industrialization dominated by heavy chemical industry. Since then, as the growth rate of heavy chemical industry slowed down, the proportion declined, the growth rate of service industry accelerated, and the consumption intensity of unit output resources continued to decline and remained stable for a long time. Second, under the background of sustained economic growth, the price of non-renewable resources has a long-term upward trend, and the growth of demand and production costs are the main reasons. Rising prices will stimulate the rapid development of various resource substitution technologies, such as the replacement of steel by new materials such as plastics, and will also have a direct impact on the consumption intensity of traditional resources. Third, with the growth of per capita income, both the increase of per capita steel production and consumption and the expansion of per capita housing area need to consume a lot of physical objects; Even if we enter the information society, we can't build high-rise buildings and various infrastructures without physical investment.

The wavelength of "S" curve of different metal minerals is different, which is related to its performance and the evolution of economic structure in industrialization. The starting point and shape of the curve also vary with the economic structure, resource endowment and resource policy of each country. Taking the United States as an example, the production and consumption of mineral products and related products in the United States have shown obvious changes in the past hundred years. Judging from the production and consumption of iron ore and steel, the iron ore production in the United States reached the highest level in history in 1.952, and the iron ore consumption reached 1.954/.450 million tons, and has been maintained at 7 1 10,000 tons since then. During the period of 1900 ~ 1949, the apparent consumption of iron ore exceeded the output in most years, and the net import of iron ore did not exceed 5 million tons (only 8 years of net export, the quantity did not exceed 2 million tons). 1954 ~ 1990 The apparent consumption of iron ore is greater than the output, and the difference is1200 ~ 70 million tons, and 199 1 ~ 2007 decreased to1580,000 ~ 4 million tons. 1900 to 2007, the cumulative output of iron ore was 7.045 billion tons, and the cumulative apparent consumption was 8.253 billion tons. In 2006, the steel output reached the highest level in history 1973, and the apparent consumption reached the highest level in history1370,000 tons. According to the data of the U.S. Department of Commerce and the report of Brussels on the world crude steel output and ranking in 2008, the U.S. steel output in 2008 was 910.5 million tons. 19 14 ~ 1958 steel products are net exports, and 1959 ~ 2008 steel products are net imports.

3. Industrialization and technological revolution promote each other.

Since the industrial revolution, the machine production system has gradually formed. Industrialization has brought a series of technological inventions (Figure 12). Every technological invention needs a process, from technological invention to production practice. When the production develops to a certain new stage, it puts forward new requirements for technological inventions, so it is continuously circulated and gradually promoted. In other words, the industrial revolution and technological progress promote and improve each other.

Figure 12 Relationship between Urbanization Process and Important Technological Development in Britain

In this process, the R&D and diffusion of new technologies follow the "point, line and surface" diffusion path of "innovation point of new technology industry-new technology industry chain-new technology industry system": technological inventions first make breakthroughs at one or two key points of the industrial system, then spread along the upstream and downstream direction of the industry to form a new technology industry chain, and then spread to related industries to form a new technology industry system (network), thus gradually driving urbanization.

4. Recycling becomes an important source of raw materials.

Whether it is minerals, energy or other means of production, the "zero growth" of consumption has not yet appeared. America is the most typical. The United States has entered the post-industrial era, but it is still the largest producer of mineral products in the world, and many mineral products rank first in the world. It is the world's largest consumer of mineral products, with per capita consumption exceeding 20 tons, five times that of China; It is also the largest trading country of mineral products, and the import and export of many mineral products ranks first in the world; The processing output value of non-fuel minerals accounts for about 5% of the US GDP.

Post-industrialized countries rely on knowledge and technological innovation to develop their economies. The growth rate of mineral resources consumption is much lower than that of GDP, and the intensity of resource consumption per unit GDP has dropped significantly. With the increase of per capita income, the consumption of non-metallic mineral resources has increased significantly; The generation and accumulation of waste materials create conditions for their recycling and reuse, and gradually become an important supplement to the supply of raw materials. The recovery and recycling of bulk scrap metals such as steel, aluminum, copper, etc. account for an increasing proportion of resources input. The consumption of nonmetals and various new alloys has increased sharply, and new materials and substitutes have emerged constantly, and the application fields have been expanding, which supports social progress and sustainable economic development. Germany, Japan and other countries that rely on renewable resources to develop "vein industry" are examples.