What will happen if Hainan is not limited to purchase?

Before answering the questions, ask: A, What's the population of China? A: Less than 654.38+04 billion people. How many large tropical islands are there in China? A: There is only one in Hainan Island.

Ok, let's assume that 10% of China people have the financial strength to buy commercial housing in Hainan. Stimulated by the strict regulation of first-and second-tier cities and the good news that the central government approved Hainan to establish an international free trade zone and a free port, 10% of people have the will to buy a house in Hainan. Do you know what this means? It means that there will be more than/kloc-0.0 million people eager for Hainan to lift the ban on purchases-this figure has exceeded the total population of Hainan Province.

-this will undoubtedly be a disaster!

First, the French said with wet eyes: This is the last piece of pure land for world tourism.

I remember that more than 20 years ago, as a reporter, I accompanied officials of club med, a world-renowned tourism agency, to visit Sanya. In Yalong Bay Beach, which stretches for tens of thousands of meters and has not been fully developed, white sand is as silver as a rock. The acting vice president, who is nearly half a century old, took off his glasses and murmured excitedly with wet eyes: This is the last piece of pure land for world tourism!

Indeed, Hainan Island has almost all the beautiful elements of tourism and life that people generally yearn for: coconut wind and sea rhyme, green hills and white sands, fragrant melons and fruits, and evergreen all the year round. Take Sanya as an example, where the average annual temperature is 28.5 degrees and the average seawater temperature is 25 degrees. Theoretically, you can swim in the sea 365 days a year. The clarity of the sea is visible to the naked eye 20 meters underwater, which is unimaginable in the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea.

Hainan is rich in humanities, and the history of human activities can be traced back to 7000 years ago. In Sanya alone, 3,000 senior officials were stationed here during the Tang and Song Dynasties, forming a unique "culture of demoting officials". Hainan's tunes, eight tones, Li Miao customs, Qiong Opera and other cultural heritages all contain unique national and local charm.

Due to the geological structure, the groundwater in Hainan is almost volcanic mineral water, which is rich in a large number of minerals and trace elements. Hainan's air cleanliness is famous, and Haikou and Sanya are among the best in the air quality rankings of major cities in China all the year round. At the same time, Hainan is also a famous hometown of longevity in China, where centenarians can be seen everywhere.

It can be said that Hainan is a unique and beautiful back garden given by God to the people of China. Facing the sea, spring blossoms, this happy life realm, only when we arrive in Hainan Island, can we deeply understand and appreciate it.

Second, the anecdote of the old man and the sales girl in the mainland:

The following story is an anecdote widely circulated in Hainan: It is said that a new sales girl in a real estate in Sanya has no sales performance for a long time. Suddenly, one day, an old man from the mainland came, dressed in untidy clothes. Experienced colleagues judged that the old man had no purchasing power and probably came to the sales hall to calm down, but they ignored him. Only the newly hired sales girl is idle and enthusiastically guides the elderly to see the house. As a result, the scruffy old man was quite satisfied with the introduction service and took out a bank card and said, "No discount, I'll buy a house!" " I want this floor, and then I'll buy that floor. The lucky salesgirl took hundreds of thousands of yuan just for the sales commission.

Whether it is true or not, Hainan was approved to establish an international tourist island shortly after the rumor, and the price of commercial housing has doubled overnight, entering the era of high housing prices. We might as well assume that the rumor is true, so the value of the scruffy old man has risen by hundreds of millions, and the new sales girl has also become rich instantly. How likely are they to invest the money they earn in solar energy, 3D printing or digital technology? The answer is almost zero.

The real estate industry is a simple and rude low-end industry. Although it can drive hundreds of related supporting industries, it consumes a lot of resources and is unsustainable. The economic model focusing on real estate is abnormal, and too much emphasis is tantamount to quenching thirst by drinking poison.

I have a friend who has invested in energy technology projects. It has been more than ten years now, and he still insists on selling iron. If he had used the money for real estate speculation, he would have been a billionaire. The convenience of the real estate industry easily breeds the inertia of wealth reuse. In the long run, the innovation and diversification of our industrial layout have not improved, and hollowing out and simplification have become a reality, which makes people shudder to think about it.

Third, have you ever heard of the tsunami? If Hainan does not limit purchases, it will trigger a series of tsunamis.

What is the private deposit in China now? According to incomplete statistics, it is about 160 trillion yuan. In the case that the investment category is not very rich and the investment export is not smooth, this huge sum is equivalent to a suspended dammed lake. Once a certain target or channel is opened, for example, Hainan cancels the purchase restriction, the financial frenzy will come like a flood, no, like a tsunami, it will engulf everything in front of you, leaving only ruins and rubble everywhere. This has not counted the hot money and hot money flowing in Hong Kong or the international community.

The tsunami in the real estate industry will drive the prices of hundreds or even hundreds of related industries to soar, thus triggering a price tsunami. All the costs have been increased layer by layer, and the income and hard-earned savings of Hainan natives, whose income level is at the bottom of the country, will be diluted to nothing by the tide of funds and prices.

Can Hainan successfully build an international free trade zone and a free port if the people on one side generally complain bitterly and seriously lack enthusiasm and happiness for participation?

Fourth, the consequences of overloading have been seen in India and Southeast Asia-either turtle speed or capsize.

Next, let's estimate Hainan's future real estate demand-the existing population of the province is close to100000, and at least10000 to 2 million houses will be needed in the future; Hainan announced the introduction of 6,543,800 foreign talents and the need for 6,543,800 houses. If the purchase restriction of commercial housing is cancelled, at least one million new immigrants will enter the island; Coupled with the headquarters of major domestic enterprises, R&D institutions, branches of famous universities, investors of Fortune 500 companies and institutions accredited by international organizations and groups, how much more living ability do more and more domestic and foreign tourists need to increase?

Corresponding infrastructure, supporting services, education and medical care, etc. , but also need timely and thoughtful practical protection. Hastily lifting the ban on purchase restrictions will make Hainan's limited natural and social resources shrink and dry up, and public functions will be overwhelmed.

When Hainan is overcrowded and blocked, can it still maintain the charm and attraction of coconut wind and sea charm and brocade green space?

In Southeast Asia, we have seen the consequences of serious overloading and overcrowding of Indian trains and ferries-either the tortoise goes at a high speed or the boat capsizes out of control.

To sum up, if Hainan does not limit purchases, it will cause great confusion and difficulties. Therefore, the purchase restriction is unreasonable and must be strictly enforced.

My humble opinion, welcome criticism and discussion.