What are the "mysterious forces" that affect the Olympic medal list?

Olympic performance depends not only on every nerve, muscle, sweat and tears of athletes, but also on the economic, political and cultural backgrounds of different countries.

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But have you looked down at the number of medals in other countries?

The minibus found an interesting thing:

By the end of all competitions on August 2nd, Spain had won 1 gold, 3 silver and 3 bronze, ranking 28th in the medal list.

Georgia won 1 gold, 4 silver 1 bronze, ranking 27th in the medal list. (compare the number of gold medals first, the gold medal is the same, then the silver medal, or the same and then the bronze medal, so as to rank)

You know, Spain has a population of more than 47 million and its GDP is about 1.28 trillion US dollars. Georgia's population is only 37 1 10,000, and its GDP is only 159 billion US dollars. The population difference between the two countries is more than 12 times, while the GDP difference is 80 times.

From all aspects, Spain should be a country far stronger than Georgia. However, the result of this Olympic Games-at least for now, Spain lags behind Georgia.

There is a more exaggerated contrast.

India's population is 1.38 billion, and its GDP exceeds 2.62 trillion US dollars. So far, only 1 silver medal and 1 bronze medal have been won, ranking 62nd in the medal list. According to the performance in previous years, it is very likely to surpass Georgia before the end-in the previous five summer Olympic Games, Georgia won eight gold medals, while India only had 1.

Why is there such a big difference between the ranking of Olympic achievements and the ranking of national strength in our impression? What are the "mysterious forces" that affect the Olympic medal list? Today we will analyze it.

First of all, it must be admitted that although there is some heterogeneity, the number of awards in various countries is positively related to GDP as a whole.

Summarizing the medals of the five Summer Olympic Games from Sydney in 2000 to Rio in 20 16, we will find that the top ten countries with the best performance are among the top 15 in the world:

Putting these countries on the scatter chart, it is easier to see the relationship between the number of medals and GDP:

Why is there such a correlation? The reason is not difficult to understand. GDP Total population (people) Per capita output value (money). High GDP generally means that there are many people in this country and everyone has more money.

People and money are needed to develop sports. Only when life is rich, can you spare the energy to pursue "faster, higher, stronger and more United"; The huge population provides a foundation for the selection of sports talents.

Since1970s, there have been various models to predict the number of medals in the world. After 50 years of development, all models are basically inseparable from two variables: total population and per capita GDP (or per capita income). For simplicity, we only examine the product of the two-GDP. Actually, it is more accurate to calculate separately.

If GDP is divided into population and per capita GDP, we can understand why India, which ranked sixth in the world in GDP in 2020, performed so badly in medals-only won 1 gold, 4 silver and 8 bronze in the past five summer Olympic Games.

India's GDP per capita is only $65,438 +0.900.

The huge population with scarce resources cannot bring efficient sports output. Therefore, India's Olympic performance is far less than that of some European countries with small economies but extremely rich economies.

In the first five Summer Olympic Games, the ranking of the total number of medals from 1 to 10 conforms to the "GDP determinism", but there are many "abnormal values" in1-20.

Cuba won 1 12 medals in the past five times, ranking 1 1.

Ukraine, with 97 medals, ranked 13.

Hungary, 77 medals. Romania, 67 medals. Belarus, 63 medals. Poland, 57 medals.

The GDP and per capita GDP of these countries are much lower than those of Sweden, Norway and Denmark, but their Olympic performance is much better.

Ukraine, in particular, has a worrying economic development in recent years, with a per capita GDP of only $3,700, but the total number of medals is more than that of Canada, one of the G7 countries. (The populations of the two countries are almost the same, and the difference in per capita GDP is more than 10. )

Why? You may have found that these countries were and still are socialist countries. It can also be said that except Cuba, the other five countries are all former Soviet countries or satellite countries. Georgia mentioned at the beginning is also a part of the Soviet Union.

In the history of modern sports, the Soviet Union is a horrible existence-it participated in the 18 Olympic Games, among which 14 was the country with the most gold medals. Participated in the 9th Summer Olympic Games, and won 10 10 medals-in contrast, New China also participated in the 9th Summer Olympic Games from 1984 to 20 16, and * * * won 546 medals.

Thirty years after the disintegration, the foundation of the state system and national sports laid by the Soviet Union is still valid in Eastern Europe, Central Europe (and Central Asia). Russia's high-profile performance in the Olympic Games also benefited in part from this.

As long as we look closely at the medal trends from Sydney to Rio, the sports glory of these countries seems to be fading.

Looking down at the medal table, there are some different faces, ranking 2 1-30.

Kenya won 55 medals in the previous five Summer Olympic Games, ranking 2 1.

Jamaica won 47 medals, ranking 24th.

Ethiopia won 37 medals, ranking 30th.

Neither per capita GDP nor social system can explain the achievements of these countries, but friends who often watch track and field events must know the reason-a new trick, eating all over the world.

Kenya is the king of middle and long distance running. The medals in Barcelona Olympic Games from 65438 to 0992 all came from track and field, most of which were middle and long distance races and marathons.

Ethiopia is Kenya's main competitor, and all the Olympic medals in history have come from middle and long distance running, marathon and 3000m steeplechase.

Jamaica is the king of sprint events. Since 1948 participated in the Summer Olympic Games for the first time, * * * has won 77 medals, 74 of which are from sprint and hurdle events.

Because the classification of track events is very fine, 100m, 200m, 400m, 800m, 1500m, 5000m, 10000m, marathon, 4 100m, 4 400m,/kloc.

For example, in the women's 100 meter sprint of Tokyo Olympic Games, Jamaican athletes won the first and second place respectively. This event alone has surpassed all the medals in India at present.

A similar situation also happened in Australia. Because of the variety of swimming events (four strokes, different distances, relays and mixed events), Australia has always won a lot in the swimming pool, thus improving its ranking.

Is this a racial gift? Not necessarily, at least Su He is still breaking through this restriction.

On the contrary, it is a sports tradition. Just like table tennis in China, it has a better mass base, a more mature training system and more willing resources in all aspects.

It's just that some sports traditions have many medals and some have few. For example, in Spain, the results of the three major sports are good, but even counting them, there are only six gold medals.

In addition to the above three points, there are other factors that affect the medal list.

① Home court advantage:

The word "host" carries a lot of weight. Additional places, the support of the audience, the familiarity of the venue, the tendency of the referee and the care of the schedule may all change the final result.

Australia in 2000, Greece in 2004, China in 2008, Britain in 20 12, and Brazil in 20 16, all achieved more than the previous average. Therefore, it is not surprising that the Japanese delegation has played an extraordinary role this year.

Another study found that under the same conditions, the closer a country is to the host country of the Olympic Games, the more athletes will participate. Visible climate, time difference, accommodation, etc. Are imperceptibly affecting the performance of athletes.

② Gender equality:

Countries with higher female labor participation rate will perform better in the Olympic Games.

In China, female athletes win more gold medals than male athletes. On the other hand, Iran won 69 medals in all the Olympic Games it participated in, of which only one bronze medal came from a female athlete. Without half the sky, the ranking is naturally difficult to break through.

3 right to speak:

In some countries, complaints can only express dissatisfaction, while in others, complaints can change the penalty.

The New York Times also said: "The Olympic Games has nothing to do with politics, but it is impossible and untrue."

There are also immigration policies, the popularity of mass media (such as television) and so on, which will affect a country's performance in the Olympic Games.

The Olympic Games is a collection of individuals who challenge the limits of human beings. It is related to every nerve, muscle, sweat and tears of athletes, but we will also see that it is also related to the economic, political and cultural backgrounds of different countries.

Author | Muyou Pharmacist | Editor on duty | Link

Editor | He Editor | Zheng