Pay a deposit of 500 thousand to go home An epidemic changed the logic of buying a house.

Source | Big Cat Finance

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Under the haze of the epidemic, enterprises finally entered the "in progress" period when they resumed work and production.

All kinds of enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, are full of expectations for spring breeze, even the real estate industry, which has always been rich in gold, is no exception. Since February, some provinces and cities have successively started the "loosening policy" of real estate.

February 1 1, Hangzhou, a big land seller last year, issued "Land 10", in which the part related to housing was mainly land, and the time node of land transfer was adjusted, and it was agreed that the land transfer fee from June 65438+1October 3 1 to February 20 could be postponed.

On February 12, three hot cities were "loosened" at the same time.

Wuxi issued 17 specific opinions overnight, covering almost all aspects of real estate. Delaying taxes and fees, relaxing pre-sales, delaying delivery and other measures are all good news for housing enterprises.

Xi 'an issued "Xi 'an Real Estate 10", which is mainly aimed at land transfer and planning. You can apply for real estate registration by delaying the payment of the transfer fee, reducing the proportion of land deposit and paying 50% of the land payment.

Nanchang's policy is similar to Xi's. The land deposit ratio is adjusted to 20%, and the transfer fee for residential or commercial-residential mixed land can be postponed for 6 months.

In addition, the real estate markets in Tianjin, Jiaxing, Chengde, Shanghai and other cities 10 have been relaxed to varying degrees.

Focus on:

At present, these policies are basically beneficial to housing enterprises, and there is no relaxation for buyers, and there is no change in restrictions on purchases and sales.

Of course, the upstream has changed, and the downstream will not remain the same.

02

Why are there so many loosening policies? Because the real estate enterprises are too difficult now.

1 February was not the traditional peak season of the property market, but it was basically frozen this year. In fact, the sales of 1 were affected by the epidemic at the end of the month, and in June, the top housing enterprises 100 declined 12%.

Since February, there is still no hope that the offline sales office will resume work. Even if you return to work, the reality of "no one can be found" is even more difficult to talk about sales. Large-scale housing enterprises have begun to "sell houses in the cloud". Although the epidemic is expected to improve, it is not over yet. Most housing enterprises have no illusions about Xiaoyangchun in March and April.

This is still a large-scale housing enterprise, and the housing enterprises of Top 100 are basically disasters for small and medium-sized housing enterprises. February is not over yet, and more than 100 housing enterprises have gone bankrupt.

To make matters worse, in 2020, the peak of debt repayment came again. The total amount of bonds due by 95 real estate enterprises during the year exceeded 500 billion yuan, up 45% from 20 19.

Money is the lifeblood, but lack of money is the norm. Without money, expenses have not decreased, so housing enterprises have now started a cash flow defense war.

03

Black swans are flying everywhere, so you have to worry about mines at home.

Hit by the epidemic, it is difficult to return to work. In fact, the economic pressure is very great. Take the GDP that everyone will mention from time to time. 20 19 years is 99 trillion. Roughly converted, a day of 271200 million, a day of 14 is 3,796.8 billion yuan. What is this concept? It is similar to Sweden's GDP of 20 19.

This has not considered the growth rate, so there is great pressure to maintain growth. As a big part of local government revenue, the leading role of land finance is still unshakable.

Many places have begun to urge the resumption of work, and land auctions have also begun. In order to prevent the epidemic, measures such as participation in soil auction, isolation and temperature measurement have been used, live webcast supervision, the first soil auction after the Spring Festival in Beijing, three land auctions, and 12 real estate enterprises bidding, with a final transaction of 8.005 billion.

Wuhan, which is in the epidemic area, has not stopped selling land.

Because of the pneumonia epidemic in COVID-19, the land transfer in Wuhan is handled according to the principle of "online registration, online audit, video unveiling and special handling". Although the listing time of some land was delayed, the deadline for listing and selling two commercial and residential plots in Wuchang District listed on 20 19 was February 19, with a value of 28 billion.

The money that should be spent is still spent. After all, housing enterprises can't survive without food. No money, no land, no money, falling into a vicious circle, that is a dead end.

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Do these changes have a great impact on ordinary people buying houses?

To tell the truth, it's still quite big. In particular, it has strengthened the determination of some wavering middle ethnic groups to buy houses.

For example, in just one month, many people recognized that "renting and selling the same rights" encountered challenges.

Epidemic prevention and control, many areas are known as "hard core" and "it is too difficult to go home", and many people have risen from spit to collapse mode.

Many urban communities have started closed management, but in the face of rework, neighborhood committees and properties have become the biggest "authorities" in each community, but some operations are unacceptable.

Some residential areas in Chengdu directly prohibit tenants from outside the city from entering the residential area, and owners are not allowed to rent their houses to foreign tenants. If you really want to enter the community, the owner and tenant will each get a "deposit" of 500,000.

Only 500 thousand people are eligible to enter the community, but if you can pay a deposit of 500 thousand casually, do you still need to rent a house

Although the community quickly apologized, the sadness was real. However, there are more and more social media messages asking for help because tenants are forbidden to enter the community. Many people have set foot on the road to go home because they are forbidden to enter, and the road to go home is not so easy.

Residential property has no instructions and documents, but it has its own regulations. Legal tenants have documents and even laws to follow, but their tenant status "does not meet the property regulations".

When the real estate license has become the key card of the community, many people still find that "it is useless to call names, and buying a house is still the last word."

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A tragedy happened somewhere. An infected person chose to commit suicide because the hospital was unable to treat him at that time, and he was more worried about going home and infecting his wife and daughter. Many people cried when they saw it. When they calmed down, they would discuss that if there were two houses, such a tragedy might be avoided.

In an epidemic, home may be the place that can give you the greatest sense of security, so we never worry about the desire to just need change.

But when the epidemic ends does have a great impact on this year's market. The basic judgment is as follows:

1. Overall, maintaining the market size of 15 trillion is a high probability event.

Refer to last year: 20 19 annual sales15.9 billion, accounting for 8% in February and 9% in March. Therefore, if the epidemic in February can be controlled, it may be affected by 4-5% throughout the year. If it is delayed until March, it is estimated to be around 10%. If it can be solved in the future,

2. There are three reasons:

1) It is appropriate for local governments to ensure income, one city and one policy, and it is appropriate to introduce appropriate easing policies to stimulate sales under the principle that homeowners do not speculate, which tests the wisdom of local officials;

2) Housing enterprises want to survive, their debts are due, their sales are not smooth, and the pressure of withdrawing funds will prompt them to do many unusual things;

3) In addition to the just-needed buyers, due to the general inflation expectation, if the sales restriction policy is relaxed, the real estate investment in core cities will rise.

The strategy of buying a house hasn't changed much. Those competitive cities are still stable, and those third-and fourth-tier cities with an average salary of 4,000 and a house price of15,000 still lack the motivation to rise.

Even in the hardest hit areas such as Wuhan, the downward trend of second-hand housing has already appeared. Statistics from the Bureau of Statistics show that second-hand houses fell by 0.4% month-on-month, but the fundamentals of the city will not change much, but there are more suitable golden pit opportunities.

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Of course, the epidemic did cause some changes in property buyers, such as:

1, the distribution of medical resources will become one of the key considerations in buying a house, and areas with good medical conditions will be sought after. In some serious cases, a good position can save lives.

2. After SARS in 2003, low-density banlou became very popular, and the value of tower and banlou began to differentiate. This is reinforced by the epidemic.

The famous case of SARS was Taoda Garden, with 19 towers. Hong Kong confirmed 1755 cases with 300 deaths. Tao Dayuan was diagnosed with 32 1 person and 42 people died. The source of the disease is that a patient used to go to the toilet in his brother's house in Tao Dayuan. The virus is a toilet and a toilet connected by a sewage pipe.

However, during this epidemic, someone concealed the epidemic again in Guangzhou Poly Tian Yue Community, which led to three households in Building 18 being recruited, six people were diagnosed as COVID-19, and more than 200 people in the whole building were completely isolated.

80,000-90,000 houses are still like this. Even if it is not natural disasters such as earthquakes and fires, ordinary residential towers with poor lighting, poor ventilation and high population density will only suffer if they encounter more difficult opponents such as viruses.

In short, if you are willing to buy a house and invest in the past two years, you can spend more time observing the market after the epidemic has passed. In 2020, there will be many opportunities.