How to avoid the middle-income trap

How to avoid the middle-income trap

? Middle income trap? Essentially, it is a description of the process state. Theoretically, the per capita national income of all countries may fall into this state in the process of moving from middle income to higher income. Some countries have adapted to the new situation and development needs through their own reforms and adjustments, thus successfully avoiding being in the middle-income stage for a long time and successfully entering the ranks of high-income countries, such as early Britain and the United States and recent Japan and? Four little dragons in Asia? ; After entering the middle-income stage, some countries can't overcome the crisis of various contradictions brought about by development. The system and mechanism do not meet the needs of economic and social development, the development strategy is wrong or subject to external shocks, and the economic growth has fallen back or been in a middle-income state for a long time, some of which will be repeated. This is the so-called middle income trap, which is typical in Latin America and East Asia. In addition, some countries may even return to low-income countries from middle-income countries.

1. China's entry? Middle income trap? Dangerous period

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, China's gross national product (GDP) in 2065438+2002 was 5 19322 billion yuan, and its per capita income was 6 100 US dollars, belonging to an upper-middle income country. According to the opinions of experts from all sides, the relevant media integrated the ten characteristics of middle-income trap countries, including economic growth decline or stagnation, democratic chaos, polarization between the rich and the poor, frequent corruption, excessive urbanization, shortage of social public services, employment difficulties, social unrest, lack of faith, and fragile financial system. After observing and studying the present situation in China, we can know that China has the above? Middle income trap? Most of the symptoms, objectively speaking, China is entering the ranks of middle-income trap countries or has a strong potential danger of middle-income trap. How to overcome many problems and challenges in the development process, get out of the middle-income trap and become a high-income country successfully is a major strategic goal for China in the future. Among them, it is undoubtedly a relatively convenient way to sort out and learn from international experience and explore some regular things as a reference for China's transformation and development.

Second, overcome and cross the international vision of the middle-income trap.

There are stages in the development stories of all countries in the world? Growing pains? Some are serious, some are slight, some are long and some are short-lived, but what is certain is that no country can develop smoothly and without obstacles. Most of the old developed countries in the world have had such and such problems, all of them are middle-income countries at some stage, but almost all of them have survived the difficulties without exception. Until the recent global financial crisis, some developed countries in northwest Europe faced serious economic crisis, and the status of high-income countries became precarious. At present, they are also trying to restore their past glory. In East Asia, most countries have fallen into the middle-income trap and lingered for a long time. Only a few countries and regions have successfully crossed this trap. In Latin America, Brazil and Argentina have developed by leaps and bounds in recent years and entered the ranks of high-income countries.

Let's share three groups of cases. Middle income trap? The growth story and experience of the country, which has become or has initially become a high-income country.

1, the forerunner of high-income countries in Britain and America.

Britain changed from a modern feudal country to a pioneer of a developed capitalist country, which mainly benefited from three revolutions and laid its long-term status as a developed country. These three revolutions are political revolution, scientific and technological revolution and industrial revolution. Britain is the first country in the world to establish a capitalist political system. With the rapid development of capitalist economy in the first half of17th century, the emerging bourgeoisie could not stand the autocratic rule of feudal monarchs, which triggered the revolution of 1642 until 1688? Glorious revolution? After that, the modern British political revolution came to an end, and it took the lead in establishing a parliamentary-led capitalist system. British political revolution not only provided a strong institutional foundation for economic development, but also cleared the way for scientific and technological revolution and industrial revolution. From the middle of17th century, modern science came into being under the impetus of a group of giants. 1765, more than 30 years after Newton's death, a brand-new steam engine was born in Watt's hands. Watt invented the steam engine, so that human beings have their own creativity, no longer subject to nature. Modern scientific progress opened the door to the British industrial revolution, and capitalist production completed the transition from workshop handicraft industry to machine industry. /kloc-In the mid-8th century, Britain became the most advanced industrial country in the world, ranking first in production and trade. By the standards at that time, it became the first high-income country in the world at that time. Although it has experienced many crises since then, its fundamental position as a developed country has never wavered.

There are similarities between the United States and Britain, which also established a solid democratic system first, which laid a strong cornerstone and guarantee for avoiding the risk of middle-income trap and maintaining the long-term sustainable development of the country. After the American Civil War, industries such as industry, transportation and communication developed rapidly. By the 1960s, its economic scale had surpassed that of Britain, which had ruled for more than 100 years, ranking first in the world. However, in the process of economic development, transitional phenomena such as the gap between the rich and the poor, political corruption, social injustice and conflicts have also appeared in large numbers. However, due to the American Revolution of Independence and the Second Revolution, it created an advanced political system. It avoided the division of the Federation and ensured a unified domestic market, so it successfully overcame the challenges of previous economic crises and became a world-leading country. /kloc-After the 1990s, due to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, it became a unique global hegemonic country in world history. The free enterprise system in the United States has got rid of all kinds of constraints, and the laissez-faire economic policy has provided equal entrepreneurial opportunities for a large number of American immigrants. However, under the supervision of American democratic system and news media, various social contradictions and conflicts have been gradually overcome. Like modern America? Shit movement? It exposed a large number of problems of political and judicial corruption and infringement of labor rights and interests at that time, which prompted the national government to implement reforms, speed up the legislative process, put an end to its harm, and created a good environment for long-term prosperity and development.

2. International examples of Japan and South Korea successfully crossing the trap.

When it comes to Japan's experience in overcoming the middle-income trap, people have noticed its practices in economic restructuring, promoting scientific and technological innovation, strengthening social security and extensive political and social reforms. From 1950s to 1980s, Japan has carried out four large-scale industrial restructuring, changed the growth mode, realized the timely transformation and upgrading from light industry to heavy industry and then to tertiary industry, and completed the transition from? Building a country through trade? Arrive? Building a country through technology? Again? Culture is the foundation of the country? This transformation has laid the foundation for three leaps from production to trade to consumption economy. In practice? National income multiplication plan? In China, Japan has implemented strategic measures such as agricultural land reform, minimum wage system, education policy reform and comprehensive development plan, established a relatively perfect social security and welfare system, and established a solid defense system for social stability. Japan's timely economic and social policy reform and adjustment are mainly due to the establishment of a constitutional monarchy and a complete mechanism of checks and balances with the help of the United States. Japan has established a special chapter on anti-corruption and bribery in the criminal code and implemented a property disclosure system. Japanese media enjoy freedom of the press and strictly supervise government actions.

South Korea also established a democratic system with the help of the United States after World War II, but military coups occurred frequently in the following decades, which also caused its economy to fluctuate for a long time. Until the 1980s, the process of democratization in South Korea was obviously accelerated. Improving government governance and building clean politics have become the key to its rapid economic development and successfully crossing the middle-income trap. On the one hand, we should emphasize the role of the market from the legal point of view, adjust the relationship between the government and the market, change the government-led model into a market-led model, and change the government's overall responsibility for the economy into active guidance. On the other hand, we should promulgate the civil servant ethics law, carry out political reform, implement the property disclosure system, build a transparent government and serve the government. The reform in the political field provides a key guarantee for the government to formulate a development strategy in line with national conditions, strengthen social construction and promote sustainable economic development. South Korea's economy has successfully changed from an export-oriented development strategy to an innovative development strategy supported by technology research and development. New village movement? The new education policy, tax reform and perfect employment and social security system have ensured that the fruits of development are enjoyed by the whole society, thus promoting the development of the domestic market, expanding the endogenous demand, and prompting the country to cross the middle-income trap and enter the ranks of high-income countries.

3. New hope for the transformation of middle-income countries in Brazil.

According to World Bank standards, Brazil has been a middle-income country for 38 years. But in recent years, the economy has developed rapidly and become one of the rising powers in the world. According to the ranking of global economies published by the British think tank Center for Economic and Business Research 20 1 1, Brazil's economy surpassed Britain for the first time and became the sixth largest economy in the world. According to World Bank data, its per capita GDP reached $65,438+02,594 this year, which has initially shown some signs of becoming a high-income country. It is generally believed that it will successfully enter the first echelon of the world economy in a few years. Therefore, for those countries that are still in the middle-income country echelon, or actively strive for the first echelon, or are deeply troubled by the middle-income trap, Brazil's growth experience is particularly worth learning.

1Since the mid-1970s, Brazil's national development has experienced major setbacks, and its economic and social policies have basically failed. It implemented the debt growth strategy, which led to the economic recession from 198 1 to 1983. However, the political reform measures in Brazil during this period created favorable conditions for comprehensive reform and adjustment. What is the process of democratization in Brazil? Through the transformation of the transaction? Masterpiece. After a long game between hardliners and reformers in the government system and radicals and moderates in the opposition, reformers and moderates gained the upper hand. From 65438 to 0974, the military government began to implement a steady and gradual policy of political opening and transition, and finally realized military control from 65438 to 0985. Returning government to the people? The democratic system was initially established. 1990s, Brazil entered an important period of reform and adjustment. Later, in the first decade of the 20th century, its economic development became more and more remarkable, surpassing several traditional developed countries in succession and becoming one of the six global powers. This is due to the great reform of Brazil's domestic and foreign policies under the democratic system. Economically, from low value-added industries to high value-added industries, Brazil's aerospace, national defense and clean energy high-tech industries are competitive internationally; In terms of social policy, since the 1990s, the Brazilian government's social expenditure has been kept at about 20% of GDP for a long time, and poverty reduction has been actively carried out, so that the income gap between the rich and the poor has been significantly narrowed and the national consumption level has continued to rise. It shows that Brazil has all the conditions to successfully enter the ranks of high-income countries.

Three. Enlightenment from international experience

At present, most countries in the world that are in the middle-income trap or facing the danger of middle-income trap are in East Asia, Eastern Europe, Middle East and North Africa, Latin America and other regions. They all have immature and imperfect political systems, manipulation of national politics by special interest groups, and improper economic policies, which lead to polarization between the rich and the poor, long-standing social injustice and inequality, intensified social contradictions, and social unrest or the existence of incentives and dangers of unrest. It is a world-class problem and an important challenge for China in the future to successfully cross the middle income trap and move from middle income to higher income. According to the experience of various countries, we can get the following enlightenment:

Political maturity, scientific system, governing the country according to law, acting according to the system, and fully ensuring citizens' political participation are prerequisites. The cases of the above five countries all show that they all successfully entered the ranks of middle-income countries after establishing a solid and scientific political system, and maintained long-term prosperity under these conditions, otherwise they would not achieve the expected goals or be unsustainable. Only a mature political system can ensure that the country formulates scientific internal and external policies and effectively implements them; Only a mature political system can avoid power rent-seeking and political corruption and prevent the formation and rampant of special interest groups; Only a mature political system can overcome all kinds of complicated contradictions and problems on the road ahead and find an effective path and direction suitable for its own development; Moreover, only under a mature political system can we maintain the fruits of economic development, achieve universal enjoyment, promote sustainable economic development and maintain the level of high-income countries for a long time.

Being good at adapting to new situations and solving new problems, constantly introducing reform measures, innovating government decision-making and science and technology, eliminating institutional and institutional obstacles on the road to development, and improving and perfecting government governance are important keys. Only under the premise of a scientific and mature political system can the national government ensure the formulation and implementation? Marketable? We will continue to reform and innovate the government system, economic development ideas and countermeasures, social policies and scientific and technological capabilities to ensure that the country will always be on the road to prosperity.

Give full play to the main role of the market, take the market as the guide, improve the domestic unified market system, rationally adjust and ensure the internal balance of trade, investment and consumption, and realize stable and sustainable economic development. As far as we are concerned, they are all market-oriented countries. Only by truly letting the market play a fundamental leading role, establishing and perfecting the domestic market economic system, and adjusting trade, investment and consumption policies in time can we successfully avoid the risk of middle-income trap. An important feature of China's reform entering the deep water area is that how to adjust the relationship between the government and the market, how to prevent self-interested trade barriers among China provinces, and how to break the strong dependence on foreign trade and investment have become the most prominent problems facing China's economic development.

Reform social policies, optimize income distribution and narrow the gap between the rich and the poor; Eliminate polarization and promote social equity; Perfecting the security system and stabilizing the national psychology are important guarantees. Civil society in high-income countries is very developed, and civil autonomy and social autonomy are very common. The foundation of social policy is to build an effective civil society. An important feature of civil society is that most citizens are middle class. Cultivating the middle class is not only the cornerstone of social stability, but also the key to promoting consumption. Only by eliminating polarization and establishing equal legal principles can citizens get fair social opportunities and provide the most reliable motive force for sustainable economic development. Whether people can maintain their consumption level and change their savings habits, the first thing is to provide them with a safe dam, establish a basic social security and welfare system, and make active work and rest assured consumption a common social psychology.

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