Slow and fast—Characteristics of future business models

The past two decades have been a golden age of rapid economic development. The emergence of a large number of new technologies has changed people’s life trajectories. If we want to use a simple word to summarize the characteristics of past business models, , then my personal feeling is that winning with speed should be the only choice. For example, the well-known Shenzhen speed, infrastructure madness, etc. were all social and economic changes during the release of artificial dividends, land dividends and institutional dividends in the last era. Stage characteristics.

However, in the past two decades, we have been imitating Western countries, especially the United States. Because of eBay, Taobao and Alibaba can do their best. After all, others have done it. path, as long as you are willing to work hard, the probability of success is basically very high.

However, today our economic size is almost the same as that of the United States based on purchasing power parity, or even surpasses it. Except for a few high-tech fields, the business model we adopt is comparable to that of the United States, and even the financial system is comparable to that of the United States. The models of technology are similar, although the underlying logic is very different.

In addition, as an innovative country, the United States has not come up with any new ideas in recent years. Most of its products and services, and even innovations, are actually just concepts. At this time, we will find that if we continue to follow the old path of following the map, we are likely to fall into the illusion of prosperity and a dream.

Why do you say that?

First of all, the technological revolution has not yet arrived, and artificial intelligence is only in its infancy, and the logic of its development is problematic, because if the underlying logic of artificial intelligence is only to replace humans, then one day , artificial intelligence will also encounter its own development bottleneck-just like a person's "left hand hitting the right hand" as boring as that. Therefore, the current economy must not continue to follow the old path of so-called economic stimulation through fiscal policy and monetary policy, which will eventually quench thirst. After all, any economic principle has the law of diminishing marginal effects. Therefore, the top priority now is to vigorously develop new technologies, rather than continuing to engage in Internet+ and financial technology innovations.

Second, the dividends of the merchant economy have basically been released. As the merchant class under the scholar-peasant-industrial-business system, there has been an evaluation since ancient times - merchants value profits but neglect friendship. The so-called wealth first drives wealth later, but practice has proved that it is nothing more than Wishful thinking. When a businessman gets rich, he does not first think of repaying his kindness, but rather invests in immigration, buys overseas, and even promotes various reforms to protect private property. Therefore, the value of businessmen has basically come to an end. , unless the business class actively accepts the reality of the changing times and transforms itself into experts in various fields instead of a rentier class.

Third, the economy cannot be imitated. When we look around the world, there is no economy that an economic power like us can use as a reference. The Japanese and Korean models are very unique and closed. The United States Although the model is open, its foundation is based on the nature of predatory development towards the world, so we cannot imitate it through a simple One Belt, One Road, and our One Belt, One Road is a move by a major country with far-reaching significance, and It is not a simple infrastructure construction.

Fourth, the characteristics of exploration behavior determine the future development of business models, and speed cannot be overemphasized. Crossing the river by feeling for the stones is probably the key word to describe the future business model. Because there is no reference for various industries, burning money will no longer be a wise move. Living within one's means and taking steps step by step may be the characteristics of the new era business model.

The future business model is not about who is faster. Talking about speed has basically become a thing of the past. A large number of cases in recent years, which I will not list one by one, have proven that rapid growth is possible. There will be more sequelae. If many devils hidden in the details are not solved step by step in a down-to-earth manner, then at a certain time, there will be a concentrated outbreak.

For example, the successful Internet model that has been leading the trend in recent years has a very high valuation, but its cash flow is terrible, so I will not analyze it in detail because it is too fast and exceeds the business logic. Computing power, so many unexpected aspects may lay deep hidden dangers for the future.

Perhaps, in the future, slowing down will be a required course for every entrepreneur, so that everything can have a gradual settling process, so that the rough and the fine, the false and the true, are the only way to survive. law.