Has the second-hand house stopped lending? 400 trillion assets may be affected.

Recently, there are rumors that second-hand houses in many places have stopped lending. If you want to buy a second-hand house in this city, you must pay in full.

If so, the impact on the property market will be enormous. After all, the real estate market in China has been marketized for more than 20 years, and the number of second-hand stock properties far exceeds the number of new houses. Investigating the real market, second-hand houses are more meaningful than new houses.

Has the second-hand house really stopped lending?

After careful inquiry, the statement about the suspension of second-hand housing loans is mainly some local news, mainly from intermediaries, group chats and the Internet. No city or bank explicitly stated through official documents that it would stop lending to second-hand houses. However, the second-hand housing loans in various cities have indeed become more difficult, the examination and approval have become stricter, and the interest rates have been greatly increased than before. Some banks don't even do second-hand housing business, and some banks greatly raise the down payment threshold and even stop lending to older second-hand houses.

It is rumored that some banks in Wuhan stopped lending second-hand houses.

In Weibo, I searched the information that some banks in Hefei suspended second-hand housing loans.

Bank of Zhengzhou stopped lending to second-hand houses above 15 or second-hand houses within 60 square meters.

72-city mortgage interest rate index and contracted loan term based on shell statistics

It can be seen that although the market interest rate has not risen, banks have raised the mortgage interest rate in a targeted manner.

At the same time, the speed of mortgage lending is getting slower and slower.

Visible "second-hand housing loans" this matter, there is no unified view on the surface, but in the actual operation level is steadily advancing. There are some things to do, but it's hard to say.

Second-hand housing loans are blocked in some cities, the fundamental reason is that the total amount of mortgage resources is getting less and less. In the previous topic, we have repeatedly mentioned the super-heavy document issued by the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission on the last day of 2020: Notice on Establishing a Centralized Management System for Real Estate Loans of Banking Financial Institutions, which has a huge impact, and most people underestimate the power of this notice. According to the requirements of the Notice, in the future, the management requirements of real estate loan concentration will be set by grades according to factors such as the asset scale and institution type of banking financial institutions.

The "Notice" gives a clear upper limit on the proportion of real estate loans of five-speed banks.

When the document was published, many banks had reached or even exceeded this upper limit ratio, which means that it will be difficult for these banks to obtain new mortgage quotas on 202 1; Other banks with space are also locked because of the upper limit, and the total amount of mortgages that can be approved is greatly reduced compared with the past. In this case, banks tend to issue mortgage loans to new houses, leaving fewer quotas for second-hand housing buyers. Therefore, the so-called "second-hand housing loan suspension" circulated on the Internet before is not an inevitable phenomenon that banks stop in one sentence, but in the case of limited mortgage resources.

This approach is likely to completely divide the property market into two markets, the first-hand housing market and the second-hand housing market, and the operational logic is increasingly different.

Specifically, the price of new housing projects in hot cities is upside down due to the price limit, and the price is significantly lower than that of the surrounding second-hand new housing. Buyers have a feeling of earning as soon as they buy, and they also sign up for new ones, but it depends on luck whether they buy or not; On the other hand, second-hand houses are restricted by purchase restriction, sale restriction, loan restriction and the guidance price of second-hand houses being rolled out, and the transaction volume is getting lower and lower, so the valuable market has become the norm.

If further analysis, this measure will also have an impact on the psychological expectations of new home buyers, because no matter how good the new house you buy, this suite has changed from a new house to a second-hand house on the market from the moment you buy it. The price of second-hand houses that cannot be traded around is artificially high, and the expectation that newcomers will earn when they buy them may be just an illusion.

The importance of credit

Credit is very important whether it is a new house or a second-hand house. It is the most important driving force for rising house prices.

Let's review the logic of this super cycle of the property market after 20 15. From 20 14 to 20 15, continuous interest rate cuts (six interest rate cuts in total) and targeted easing for the property market (such as lowering down payment, discounting mortgage interest rate, and relaxing "mortgage recognition"). The loose credit environment has accelerated the chain-like leverage increase.

(1) Young people come to big cities from their hometown with the savings of two or three generations or the money for selling houses, and buy old and small through loans;

(2) The aborigines saw that the house price was very strong, and improved their living by the way, using the house money sold to the newcomers as the down payment and borrowing money to buy improved housing;

(3) The owner of the improved house sells the improved house as a down payment and buys a luxury house through a loan;

(4) After selling the property, the luxury home owner will use it for business operation/other large-scale asset investment/immigration to the sea. In addition to real estate speculation, this leverage chain basically covers 90% of real estate transactions. If you don't believe me, ask the second-hand owner who sells your house, either replace it or immigrate; You can also learn about the young people who buy your house. The house payment is either the income from selling houses or the "six wallets".

The other chain is the line of real estate speculators: mortgage the existing property and take out cash to increase the property. Or through consumer loans and commercial loans.

It can be seen that every participant in the chain needs leverage, whether it is just needed, replaced or real estate speculation, and most of the leveraged principal is not real money, but released from the original real estate market value (selling houses or mortgages), or overdrawn from the one-time bonus saved by several generations; At the same time, in the relaxed environment at that time, most of these participants' leverage qualifications were forged (fake running water and fake work certificates). 20 15-20 18, I went to a first-tier city to ask an intermediary for help, saying that my income was not good. How can I get a loan? He can help you with the materials in minutes, because the intermediary is closely related to the fake materials, and they can even give you the materials.

Do you really believe that housing prices have doubled in just one or two years because the urban industry is too good? Too many new people? Supply and demand are too tight?

That's ridiculous. These fundamentals can only support a city's property market for a long time, and a city's housing prices cannot double in just one or two years, because these fundamentals are not available in the last year or two, and there is only one reason for the short-term skyrocketing, that is, leverage.

In 20021year, the total household debt in China exceeded 10 trillion US dollars, seven times that of 20 10 year.

(Source: ceicdata.com)

Leverage ratio of China residents (quarter 20 14 1- quarter 202 1 1)

Behind the skyrocketing housing prices is the madness and leverage of residents.

However, there have been signs of peaking in the past two quarters.

The actual situation may be: many people still want to increase leverage, but banks do not lend.

The loose credit policy makes the whole leverage chain run smoothly, while the credit is constrained, just like the chain rusts and cannot move forward. In the past, under the background of the proliferation of fake materials and loose mortgages, the release of credit did not take into account the real income level, and the income level of the whole society was closely linked to the rent, which explained why the rate of return on rent was so low and why the increase in house prices far exceeded the average income. After the accumulation of risks, it is timely and necessary for the central bank and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission to introduce strong measures to restrict real estate loans at the end of 2020.

Knowing the importance of credit to housing prices, it is not difficult to speculate on the next market trend. If the above-mentioned central bank notice continues to be implemented and commercial loans continue to flow into the property market in violation of regulations, then we will certainly see unprecedented things, and people's belief in housing prices may be gradually broken.

May 202 1 is a noteworthy node, and the transaction volume of some hot cities began to decrease in May. If the existing measures remain unchanged, this transaction volume will only be lower in the future, not the lowest.

The transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shenzhen in May was only 3,027 sets.

In April and May, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shanghai dropped by a step.

The turnover of second-hand houses in Guangzhou decreased in May.

How many asset attributes are left?

We gave a judgment in early June, that is, the mortgage will continue to tighten in the future, and it is likely to be aimed at second-hand housing. Now it seems that this direction is determined.

What official WeChat account was shared in early June?

Although the second-hand housing loans have only been greatly tightened at this stage, it is still alarmist to say that the second-hand housing loans have been completely stopped, but for countless second-hand housing with poor liquidity, the current situation is similar to that of stopping loans. What needs to be understood is that the suspension of loans not only affects property buyers, but also affects property owners. If the potential buyer of a house can't even apply for a mortgage, then the house will basically not be sold.

"Housing without speculation" is not an empty talk, and the ultimate goal may be to undermine its asset expectations and strengthen its residential attributes. Nowadays, real estate is the absolute head of China people's value. In some hot cities, real estate accounts for more than 80% of household assets. Even if the house is rich, it is bitter to get rid of it. This is an embarrassing situation faced by countless middle classes. Now the second-hand housing market is frozen, which means that the flexibility of these assets is greatly reduced, and it is impossible to cash out and taste a product carefully. This is really living in a house without speculation.

With regard to the scale of China's housing stock, it is generally predicted that the total market value will exceed 400 trillion RMB, which makes China's housing the most valuable asset in the world. However, under the background that the market is frozen and there is no market for stock houses, such market value does not make any sense.