The central bank quietly raised interest rates. When is the best time to buy a house this year?

On the first working day after the end of the Spring Festival, the central bank quietly set off a wave in the financial market: on February 3, the central bank raised the reverse repo rate and SLF rate in the open market, which was interpreted by the financial community as the central bank did not raise interest rates.

Undoubtedly, by raising the reverse repo rate and SLF rate, the interest rate can be substantially increased. Therefore, it is not wrong to regard the central bank's actions as a substantial interest rate hike. The key is why the central bank quietly enters the village to "raise interest rates", what kind of signal does the interest rate hike mean to monetary policy, and is the "interest rate hike" aimed at inflation expectations or asset price bubbles?

I define the central bank's move as a "quiet" interest rate hike, and I don't agree that some people in the industry regard the central bank's move as a signal of "a comprehensive shift in monetary policy" and "a comprehensive tightening of liquidity". If China's monetary policy turned, it actually appeared as early as last year.

Both the keynote of the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of last year and the previous discussion on the turning point of global monetary policy have clearly shown that loose money will come sooner or later, whether it is China or other economic powers in the world, after experiencing the amazing bubble cycle and the increasingly drug-resistant reaction of the real economy.

Judging that the global "liquidity turning point" has arrived, I think:

First, under the condition that the effect of global loose money has reached the extreme, any easing has no effect on the economy itself, and major economies including Europe, Japan and China will not continue to expand the scale of easing;

Second, in addition to the historic turning point of global liquidity that may be caused by the US interest rate hike, it is more important that the report card of China's economy on 20 16 far exceeded expectations, and the risk of China's economy has shifted from steady growth? "Suppressing bubbles" and "preventing risks";

Third, the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of last year attached great importance to monetary policy, and proposed that "monetary policy should remain stable and neutral, adapt to the new changes in the way of money supply, adjust the monetary gate, strive to unblock the transmission channels and mechanisms of monetary policy, and maintain basic stability in liquidity." While enhancing exchange rate flexibility, we should keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. We must put the prevention and control of financial risks in a more important position, make up our minds to control a number of risk points, focus on preventing and controlling asset bubbles, improve and improve our regulatory capabilities, and ensure that systematic financial risks do not occur. "

Steady and "neutral" have clearly told you that the currency will be tighter than 20 16, and the previous formulation of "adjusting the currency gate" is even more unusual. Finally, the exchange rate and asset price bubbles are particularly emphasized, which clearly shows that the turning point of monetary policy has indeed arrived.

Therefore, the central bank's quiet "interest rate hike" itself does not mean the overall turn of China's monetary policy, because monetary policy has turned, and tightening the monetary faucet is the keynote set a long time ago.

At the beginning of the new year, the central bank should not only convey the tone of monetary policy set at the end of last year, but also dare not and do not need to make a big splash. Stabilizing the exchange rate and curbing the asset price bubble can not be solved simply and rudely, and it is right to fear bubbles and risks.

During the Spring Festival, it is expected that the local property market will be cold, but this has little to do with the central bank's interest rate hike, but the natural adjustment of the real estate market itself after the crazy rise of 20 16. Regardless of Shanghai, Xiamen, Hefei, Nanjing and Shenzhen, the transaction volume is extremely bleak, which is consistent with the tone that we judged that the whole real estate market will "change the weather" last year.

But the author has always stressed that we should not misread the real estate policy of 20 17. Strict control is only aimed at investment speculation. In the case of increasing uncertainty, we have no capital to actively suppress real estate. However, due to the overdraft of 20 16, it is still a high probability that the volume and price of some hot cities fell together last year. Those who want to sell their houses will have to wait until at least June to make a comprehensive assessment of the fundamentals of the real estate market before making a decision according to the trend.

After the shift of monetary policy, market participants generally believe that gold will continue a new round of upward trend. Neither the Bank of China's interest rate hike nor the US non-farm payrolls data exceeded market expectations, which did not suppress the recent strong formation of gold, showing the characteristics of "negative decline". The property market, which fell into adjustment in the fourth quarter of last year, continues to be the target of bearish market participants.

On the occasion of visiting relatives and friends during the Spring Festival, speaking of the property market, most people think that housing prices in first-tier cities and second-tier cities may stagnate this year. The most important factor leading to the stagflation of housing prices in first-tier cities and second-tier cities this year is the weakening of demand. On the one hand, this weakening demand comes from the influence of the new house purchase restriction policy. Many people who can afford a house can't buy a house because of the new purchase restriction policy. On the other hand, many people who have just qualified to buy a house in a first-tier city cannot make up the down payment for buying a house because of the cancellation of the down payment loan. The stagflation of housing prices in first-tier cities and second-tier cities does not mean that the property market in these places will not increase in price, but that the momentum of housing price increase will be hindered and there will be no skyrocketing as in the first half of 20 16.

Coupled with the central bank's new policies such as restricting purchases, canceling down payment loans and raising interest rates, this year's property market may be greatly affected. Now people in first-tier and second-tier cities have to consider whether it is worthwhile to continue wandering in big cities. There are also many choices online, such as emigrating abroad, Lijiang, and a beautiful place. Many China people began to have the idea of emigrating or emigrating, which made third-tier cities and fourth-tier cities with many idle new houses see new business opportunities. It turns out that a large number of new houses have appeared in these small cities because of insufficient demand. However, under the influence of smog, many people want to return to small cities from big cities and live a life of "picking chrysanthemums under the east fence and seeing Nanshan leisurely". This makes the house prices in small cities, especially those with beautiful scenery, expected to rise from 20 17. Because there are no restrictions on buying new houses in these small cities, and the house prices are much lower than those in first-tier and second-tier cities, many people who work hard in big cities regard buying a house in a small city as their holiday house, so that they can enjoy the investment income brought by the possible increase in house prices and take their families to a small city for a holiday in their leisure time.

In addition to holiday real estate becoming the new favorite of smog economy, B&B may also become the biggest highlight of real estate in 20 17. At the end of 20 16, the country put forward the idea of developing "manor economy" for the first time. As an important part of manor economy, homestay is beginning to show its value. Taking B&B in Moganshan as an example, the investment attraction for characteristic towns and characteristic B&Bs has been continuously strengthened, and B&B is becoming a new target for real estate developers. Especially under the general trend of sharing economy, good and inexpensive homestays are expected to become a new mode of travel and accommodation for Chinese people.

Ren Zeping, a macro analyst at Founder Securities, said that looking forward to 20 17, it is expected that the economy will bottom out on the demand side in the middle of the year, but the supply side will be clear, and the policy will shift from steady growth to risk prevention and reform. The stock market has changed from a "buffalo" to a "performance cow". There are no exponential opportunities, but there are many structural opportunities, focusing on performance and reform. The bond market is deleveraging, and trading opportunities may exist around the second quarter. The RMB has stabilized in the short term but is still overvalued, and the dollar correction is good for gold.

Jiang Chao, a macro analyst at Haitong Securities, believes that raising interest rates means increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold, but raising interest rates will hit risk appetite, while reducing risk appetite is beneficial to gold. From the perspective of inflation, short-term inflation is still at a high level, and the inflation environment is conducive to gold.

With regard to real estate, Jiang Chao believes that the price of steady economic growth in 20 16 is a sharp rise in house prices, a sharp rise in leverage and pressure on the exchange rate. The Central Economic Work Conference decided that curbing the real estate bubble, preventing financial risks and promoting reform will be the primary goals in 20 17. The central bank confirmed that raising the money market interest rate means that there is a risk of a sharp rise in mortgage interest rates. At present, the benchmark interest rate for loans over five years is 4.9%, which means that at a reasonable level of 5.5%, all discounted mortgages will disappear, otherwise banks might as well buy bonds. However, the extraordinary prosperity of the 20 16 real estate market was not supported by the demographic structure, but was entirely supported by a large number of mortgages. If the mortgage interest rate continues to rise in the future, the government will roll out the policy of restricting loans for speculative purchases in some first-and second-tier cities, real estate sales will continue to decline, and the real estate market will come in a severe winter. Ren Zeping predicted that house prices would be adjusted from the end of 20 17 to the end of 20 18.

(The above answers were published on 20 17-02-08. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )

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