The political pattern in Northeast Asia and China's security.

Northeast Asia mainly includes China, Russia, Mongolia, North Korea, South Korea and Japan. Due to the influence of the bipolar pattern of the Cold War, the United States intervened in various affairs in this region, making the United States one of the protagonists of this regional pattern. The so-called political pattern refers to the contrast and overall situation of the basic political forces formed in the world under the leadership of the main contradictions in the world in a certain period, which is manifested in a certain international political structure or system. The strategic partnership between China, Russia and North Korea in Northeast Asia is manifested in the US-South Korea alliance of the United States, Japan and South Korea and the US-Japan alliance. After Lee Myung-bak took office, the relationship between South Korea and Japan was strengthened, which actually formed a strategic triangle relationship between the United States, Japan and South Korea. Due to the confrontational situation on the Korean Peninsula and the North Korean nuclear issue that has not been effectively resolved in recent years, the situation in this region has become more tense and complicated. In this case, it is not conducive to economic cooperation in this region, but also has a very negative impact on the peaceful rise of China.

1. Current situation of political structure in Northeast Asia

On the one hand, the political pattern of Northeast Asia is influenced by the Yalta system after the Cold War, and on the other hand, the special historical and geographical background of East Asia is also an important factor in the formation of its existing political pattern. Generally speaking, the political pattern in Northeast Asia has three characteristics.

The situation on the Korean peninsula is tense.

The situation on the Korean peninsula has changed suddenly recently. Since May 25, North Korea

Since the announcement of the successful second nuclear test, North Korea has launched six missiles in just five days. From the launch of a "satellite" to the second nuclear test, and now to the continuous launch of missiles, there are even signs that North Korea will launch intercontinental missiles next month. The tension between the DPRK and the ROK may even lead to a new round of military conflicts and wars on the peninsula, and this region is likely to start an arms race focusing on the development of nuclear weapons. The relationship between North Korea and the United States is once again highly tense. Under the advocacy of the United States, the United Nations finally unanimously adopted a resolution to impose sanctions on North Korea. However, the domestic reaction in North Korea is tough, and the easing of the political situation in East Asia ultimately depends on the mutual compromise and cooperation of the countries concerned in Northeast Asia.

1.2 The state relations between China and Japan are ups and downs.

Due to historical reasons, the mutual distrust between China and Japan is well known in the world. In addition, the objective existence of the Taiwan Province Province issue and the Diaoyutai issue has caused the relationship between the two countries to fluctuate since the establishment of diplomatic relations. China and Japan are both economic powers in Asia, Japan is the largest economy and the largest developed country in Asia, and China is the largest developing country in Asia and the world. Although the economies of the two countries are highly complementary, due to the above reasons, Sino-Japanese economic cooperation has not fully developed its potential. Even so, Sino-Japanese economic cooperation has achieved fruitful results in some aspects. During the improvement of Sino-Japanese relations, such as Yasuo Fukuda's visit to China, Sino-Japanese strategic and mutually beneficial relations will develop, Sino-Japanese economic and trade relations will make new breakthroughs in two years, and Sino-Japanese trade will further increase, reaching 300 billion US dollars in two years. There are also many large-scale cooperation projects between China and China. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs recently, within two years of Yasuo Fukuda's administration, Japan continued to be Japan's third largest trading partner and the largest source of imports, with a total bilateral trade value of US$ 236.02 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. Among them, China imported US$ 65.438+033.95 billion from Japan, a year-on-year increase of 654.38+05.8%; Exports1.70 billion USD, up 1 1.4% year-on-year. The proportion of Sino-Japanese trade in China's foreign trade decreased from 15.7% in 2003 to1.8% two years later, and further decreased to 10.9% two years later. In the past two years, Japanese direct investment in China has declined again, while China's investment in Japan has been increasing. Zhou Yongsheng, a professor at the Institute of International Relations, Foreign Affairs University, pointed out that the main reason for the slow growth of Sino-Japanese economic and trade cooperation in recent years is the "cold" political environment between China and Japan. China and Japan have strong economic complementarities and are close neighbors. Japan has been China's largest trading partner for 65,438 years. However, since 2004, China's trade with Europe and America has accelerated, while its trade with Japan has regressed. In 2002, the number and amount of Japanese investment projects in China dropped sharply, and the growth rate of bilateral trade also slowed down. The lag effect of "political coldness" between China and Japan has already appeared. In the past two years, although Sino-Japanese trade has continued to maintain the growth momentum, it has not shaken off the low growth trend since 2004. It can be seen that the instability of Sino-Japanese political relations has caused difficulties in all-round cooperation between China and Japan, which has brought many unfavorable factors to regional economic integration and cooperation in Northeast Asia.

1.3 The level of cooperation between China, Russia and the DPRK in Northeast Asia is high or low.

Although China, Russian Federation and North Korea have a border that stretches for thousands of kilometers, the level of cooperation among the three countries is relatively low. The biggest feature is that "political heat is cold" and "political cold is hot" between China and Japan, which have diametrically opposite characteristics of cooperation. As far as China and Russia are concerned, although the Sino-Russian strategic cooperative partnership has been established in the 2 1 century, it is also more reflected in the political level. The economic cooperation between China and Russia has not reached the level corresponding to its political cooperation, which is one of the reasons why the political trust between China and Russia has not reached 100% to some extent. The recent Russian "China threat theory" and the "yellow peril theory" based on China immigrants are one of the good manifestations. On the political level, China and Russia have been unable to reach a consensus on some international issues, which has reduced the tacit understanding between China and Russia in solving international problems. The typical event that affects the economic cooperation between the two countries is the diversion of oil pipelines between China and Russia, and the biggest trade project between China and Russia is the energy cooperation between the two countries.

Russia is the country with the largest territory in the world, with a land area of 1 707,540 square kilometers. Its west is integrated with Europe, and its east and south are integrated into the Asian continent. Russia has a vast territory and rich natural resources. Its forest coverage area is 867 million hectares, accounting for 5 1% of the country's land area, and the timber storage volume is 80.7 billion cubic meters; The proven natural gas reserves are 48 trillion cubic meters, accounting for more than one third of the world's proven reserves, ranking first in the world; The proven oil reserves are 6.5 billion tons, accounting for 12% to13% of the world's proven reserves; Coal reserves are 200 billion tons, ranking second in the world; The reserves of iron, aluminum, uranium and gold are also among the best in the world.

The Russian government is also making continuous efforts for the energy cooperation between China and China. According to the news released by the Information Office of the Russian Federation to RIA Novosti, the heads of Chinese and Russian governments attended the opening ceremony of the second Russian-Chinese economic and commercial summit forum at 65438+ on February 6, 2006. After that, the 12th regular meeting between Russian and Chinese prime ministers will be held. In the evening, the two prime ministers also attended the closing ceremony of the China Year and cultural performances. The Chinese and Russian prime ministers will discuss the issue of exporting freshwater fish and seafood to China for the first time, which is also the first time to discuss related issues at such a high level. In addition, the cooperation between the two countries in the energy field, including the second phase of Tianwan Nuclear Power Station, will be discussed. At previous heads of government meetings, the trade between Russia and China has become a routine consultation issue. The two sides plan to expand the bilateral trade volume to 60 billion US dollars in 20 10, and if possible, to 80 billion US dollars.

The level of cooperation between China and North Korea is even lower. Because North Korea has been relatively closed, on the one hand, it still retains the highly centralized political and economic system of the Soviet Union, which greatly restricts the vitality of the market; On the other hand, because North Korea disregarded the unanimous opposition of the international community to develop nuclear weapons, the international community adopted various sanctions, especially economic sanctions, which made the economic cooperation between China and North Korea more difficult. Coupled with the lack of energy and unreasonable industrial structure, the trade between China and North Korea is limited to the commodity trade at the people's livelihood level, such as timber, agricultural products and some daily necessities.

2. Connotation and conditions of China's peaceful rise.

The peaceful rise of China is an irreversible trend, which has gradually become the common sense of all countries in the world. Western developed countries, especially the hegemonic country, the United States, will do everything possible to limit the peaceful rise of China under the impact of the financial crisis, among which North Korea and Taiwan Province Province are their two trump cards to limit the peaceful development of China. Therefore, China should properly handle these two issues through various efforts to create a peaceful and favorable international surrounding environment for the peaceful rise of China.

2. 1 the connotation of China's peaceful rise

As we all know, China, as the largest developing country in the world, should not and cannot rely on foreign countries for our development. We must and can only put things on the basis of our own strength. That is to say, while opening wider to the outside world, we should rely more fully and consciously on our own institutional innovation, on developing an increasingly large domestic market, on transforming huge household savings into investment, and on improving national quality and scientific and technological progress to solve resource and environmental problems.

China's peaceful rise and development is a road of peaceful coexistence, friendly coexistence and common development with other countries in the world. This is a road that relies on its own strength, digs its own connotation and pays attention to overall coordination; This is a way to improve national quality and realize social self-improvement through institutional innovation; This is a road to rejuvenating China based on the common interests of all mankind.

The peaceful rise of China has historical reality, conforms to the trend of world peace and development, conforms to the fundamental interests of people in China, Asia and the world, and also conforms to the historical experience and cultural traditions of the people of China.

The peaceful rise of China is conducive to world peace and stability, which will make the world more balanced and the international community safer. The peaceful rise of China will enrich human civilization and culture, and provide more models and cultural references for human beings. The peaceful rise of China will bring new examples and materials to the history of international relations, proving that human beings can deal with the eternal problem of ethnic conflicts in a rational and peaceful way. The peaceful rise of China is the century-old dream of the people of China, the goal of all generations, and the glorious responsibility of future generations.

2.2 Conditions for the Peaceful Rise of China

The conditions for China's peaceful rise are generally divided into two aspects, namely, domestic and foreign.

2.2. 1 domestic conditions

The domestic conditions for China's peaceful rise are generally stable and developing. As far as concrete stability is concerned, the most important thing is to adhere to the Four Cardinal Principles and comprehensively and thoroughly implement Theory of Three Represents and Scientific Outlook on Development. Development is the top priority of the Party in governing and rejuvenating the country. Specifically, it is to vigorously improve people's living standards and people's livelihood, improve people's welfare level, and solve the immediate problems faced by the broad masses of people such as employment, housing, medical care, and old-age security. Vigorously improve science and technology, build the country through science and technology, and make science and technology truly become the driving force of national economic development, which requires us to vigorously develop education, especially higher education. Under the situation that the information industry economy is the leading economy of all countries, China should vigorously develop information technology and give priority to the development of information industry; In today's increasingly globalized world, more and more multinational companies dominate global trade and even hold the lifeline of the global economy. Therefore, we should make great efforts to build a number of international companies with strong competitiveness and enhance the competitiveness of China enterprises. At the same time, we should actively learn from the advanced enterprise management technology and experience of developed countries, and improve the enterprise management system of China enterprises. At the same time, don't forget China's specific national conditions, combine with China's reality, build an enterprise management system that conforms to China's reality, go out and explore foreign markets.

Especially in economic security, I assess the situation and fully understand the trend of the world economy. The current financial crisis has given a great impetus to China's economy, especially its foreign trade. On the one hand, this is related to the export-oriented economic structure gradually formed in China since the reform and opening up, and we should further improve our economic structure and pay equal attention to both internal and external; On the other hand, we should actively advocate the international community to establish a new international monetary deposit mechanism and improve the international financial security system.

2.2.2 Foreign conditions

The rise of any country is a combination of internal and external conditions. If internal factors play a fundamental role, then external factors will even play a key role in a certain period, such as the tooth war in the late Qing Dynasty and a series of foreign wars, which eventually intensified the domestic contradictions at that time and led to the final disintegration of China feudal society. Without external factors, China will gradually transition to a modern civilized society, but the arrival of that period will be very long, so it will be more difficult for China to catch up with the development of modern western countries. As far as the existing pattern of Northeast Asia is concerned, the impact on China is obvious. With the increasing trend of globalization, the trend of regionalization is also strengthened accordingly, which is embodied in the emergence of regionalized cooperative groups. There are regional political and economic cooperation groups in the world today, such as the European Union and the North American Free Trade Area, but they have always been in a state of confrontation in Northeast Asia, which has had a great negative impact on the development cooperation and even peace and stability of Northeast Asian countries.

For China, this effect is even more obvious. Northeast China has been further developed, and the works of China and Northeast Asian countries are all based on the hidden existence of Northeast Asian pattern, which greatly hinders the pace of China's peaceful rise.

3. The influence of the political structure in Northeast Asia on the peaceful rise of China.

Without a peaceful and stable external international political environment, it is impossible for China to rise peacefully. In recent years, the realistic choice of China government's neighboring diplomatic strategy of being a good neighbor and partner is a good embodiment, because only in this way can the political, economic and cultural cooperation between China and neighboring countries be further promoted, thus creating a peaceful and stable external environment for the rise of China, and truly achieving internal and external integration. The existing political structure in Northeast Asia is extremely unfavorable to the peaceful rise of China, which can be expounded from the following aspects:

3. 1 Impact on economy

The current political situation in Northeast Asia has a very negative impact on China's economic development. First of all, North Korea has long pursued a closed foreign policy for national security. Of course, this is also the result of long-term sanctions imposed on it by capitalist countries led by the West. Although China and North Korea maintain trade routes, so does Russia. However, these cooperations are all in the initial stage. Based on the existence of Northeast Asia, due to the economic development level of China, North Korea and Russia, the characteristics of regional development determine that the depth of cooperation among the three countries is limited, at least based on the current situation, the results are very limited. This antagonistic existence has basically failed to play the role of the Korean Peninsula as an intermediate platform for cooperation in Northeast Asia. Similarly, it has also led to political distrust between China, South Korea and Japan, and has also seriously affected the economic cooperation among the three countries based on sea routes. Although the overall cooperation characteristics of the three countries can be summarized as "political cold and economic hot", it is conceivable that they are based on peace, friendship and Northeast Asia.

Since 1990s, economic globalization and regional economic integration have become two important features of world economic development, and have a more and more profound impact on the world economy. The economy of Northeast Asia, especially China, has made brilliant achievements after years of development. However, compared with the rapid development of regional economy in the world, especially the European Union and the North American Free Trade Area, the process of regional economic integration in Northeast Asia is obviously lagging behind. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the necessity and possibility of economic integration in Northeast Asia and how to realize it. Research shows that regional economic integration is the product of economic internationalization and globalization, and at the same time, it promotes the development of economic globalization to a great extent. Economic globalization and regional economic integration are the relations of unity of opposites. Regional economic integration plays an obvious exemplary role in promoting international economic competition from inter-country competition to inter-regional competition, so economic integration in Northeast Asia is necessary. The effectiveness of regional economic integration is guaranteed by sufficient regional economic strength, and Northeast Asia has such economic strength, so economic integration in Northeast Asia is feasible. Compared with customs union, free trade area is more likely to make trade creation greater than trade transfer, which provides a theoretical basis for economic integration in Northeast Asia to choose the form of free trade area. Bilateral free trade is the basis of multilateral free trade, which determines that economic integration in Northeast Asia should be realized by vigorously developing bilateral free trade under the framework of multilateral free trade. Among the economies in Northeast Asia, China has better conditions for economic cooperation with Japan and South Korea. It is not only feasible for them to establish a free trade zone, but also an important breakthrough to realize economic integration in Northeast Asia, which is of great significance to promoting the process of economic integration in Northeast Asia. China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Area has a bright future, but it still faces some obstacles to development. In order to promote the healthy development of China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Area, China, Japan and South Korea should unify their understanding, form a consensus and eliminate their fear of economic competitiveness. We should vigorously promote the bilateral free trade process of China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Area; We should speed up the construction of a national unified position; We should strengthen political mutual trust among China, Japan and South Korea and create an environment of mutual understanding and harmonious coexistence. Active measures should be taken to narrow the economic development gap between China, Japan and South Korea and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results.

3.2 Impact on politics

After the end of the Cold War, great changes have taken place in the international political structure in Northeast Asia. During the Cold War, due to the confrontation between the two camps of capitalism and socialism, the strategies of all countries were based on security interests. Although the countries in each camp are in a state of cooperation, there is no tendency to cooperate between camps. On the contrary, their relationship is in a state of extreme opposition. With the end of the Cold War, great changes have taken place in international relations in Northeast Asia, that is, the security interests of famous countries in Northeast Asia have been weakened to a considerable extent, while their economic interests have been greatly improved and valued by countries in Northeast Asia. Therefore, the strategic orientation of countries has shifted from the level of conflict to the level of cooperation. The reason for this trend is related to the transformation of foreign behavior paradigms in the world today, that is, the exchanges between countries are more economic and more concerned with their own economic development.

For China, the Korean Peninsula is located in the core of Northeast Asia and an important strategic flank of China. As a neighboring country linked by mountains and rivers with China, the Korean Peninsula has always played an extremely important role in China's geo-security strategy. Since the end of the Cold War, great changes have taken place in the geopolitical environment of the Korean Peninsula, and the bipolar pattern dominated by the United States and the Soviet Union tends to be multipolar, forming a situation in which great powers compete with each other to some extent. The weak Han Dynasty was involuntarily brought into the strategic track of neighboring powers, and the situation on the peninsula was unprecedentedly complicated. The outbreak of two nuclear crises in North Korea has made the development of the situation on the Korean Peninsula more ups and downs. Facing the complicated situation on the peninsula, China has established a security strategy characterized by "dialogue and cooperation" from the strategic goal of "maintaining peace and stability on the Korean peninsula" and actively promoted the peaceful settlement of the DPRK nuclear issue in order to ease the tension on the peninsula and maintain.

The coexistence of the United States and Japan is an important factor affecting the geopolitical security of Northeast China.

In the geo-strategic pattern of Northeast Asia, the triangular relationship between China, the United States and Japan is a key variable that affects the security of the geo-strategic pattern of Northeast Asia. "In this triangular relationship, the United States plays a leading role. Under the condition of the US-Japan alliance, the triangular relationship between China, the United States and Japan is an equilateral triangle, which is the only super in the world today.

The change of diplomatic distance between the great power United States and China and Japan is the main reason that affects the intersection of geostrategic situations in Northeast Asia. "(4) The formation of the US-Japan alliance was the product of the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, and the US-Japan alliance continued to exist after the Cold War. It is mainly the product of the strategic dilemma between China and the United States. After the Cold War, in order to prevent and contain China, the United States gradually shifted its strategic focus from Europe to the Asia-Pacific region, and strengthened the role of the US-Japan Security Treaty. It expanded the scope of application of the US-Japan Security Treaty through the new Guidelines for Japan-US Security Cooperation, and classified Taiwan Province Province of China into the US-Japan security scope by the Global Law, aiming at China. The United States also encourages Japan to strengthen its military strength, so as to play a greater role in balancing China in the Asia-Pacific region. In the global anti-terrorism action of the United States, Japan is also required to undertake part of the military, thus reducing the burden of American intervention in the world. In addition, the United States has another strategic purpose to contain Japan, that is, to prevent Japan from approaching China, obstruct the process of Northeast Asian integration, and divide the formation of Northeast power, thus reducing China's influence in the Asia-Pacific region. The negative impact on the peaceful rise of China is obvious.

It has created an unfavorable international political environment for the peaceful rise of China in Northeast Asia.

3.3 Military influence

Militarily, China has always felt insecure in Northeast Asia due to the unfavorable influence of the Northeast Asian pattern, which will have a great impact on the deployment of China's military forces. While the problem of Taiwan Province Province has not been solved and there are still problems in western China, China's military deployment has been dispersed. Once there are problems in many directions, China will face the unfavorable situation of multi-faceted operations, thus being at a disadvantage in the war. What's more, there is such a big gap between China's weapons level and that of the West. In addition, China has to bear the pressure of military expenditure. At present, China is facing many domestic problems, and economic development is the first priority. If we are burdened with military war again, the prospect of peace in China can be imagined.

3.4 Impact on culture

Historically, China culture is the main body of East Asian culture, and China culture has also profoundly influenced the cultural development of North Korea, South Korea and Japan. China's peaceful rise should give full play to its own cultural factors, which is also the soft power factor of China's peaceful rise.

All countries in Northeast Asia have experienced the process of ideological enlightenment from the wild years to the powerful countries. It can be said that the national consciousness of Northeast Asian countries comes from "learning from foreigners to control foreigners". Self-improvement and national consciousness constitute the cultural themes of major countries in Northeast Asia in the mid-Kloc-0/8th century. Once this theme is established, the inequality between countries is put forward in an unprecedented and clear way, which is why extreme nationalism always reminds us of extremely narrow racial theories. When Mr. Liang Qichao introduced the concept of Japanese nationalism to China, he mocked that all races except the yellow race were lazy races, so as to encourage China people to work hard and even compete with "whites" for colonies. 5. The gradual establishment of regional consciousness in Northeast Asia is accompanied by earth-shaking changes in the regional pattern and the transfer of strength. At this point, the "Confucianism" that Northeast Asia adhered to for 5,000 years finally bowed to Western realism. The comparison of national strength has become an absolute factor affecting the situation in Northeast Asia. It can be said that the process of regional identity of Northeast Asian countries is a process of gradually abandoning tradition and seeking new life. To interpret the history of Northeast Asia from a more macro perspective, many problems at present are just a drop in the ocean. When writing the history thousands of years ago, future generations may not be able to understand the predicament and anxiety, fighting spirit and hope of Northeast Asia today. Throughout the years that have become history, the century-long struggle between France and Germany and the century-long war between Britain and France are still only a moment in history. If China wants to rise peacefully, the cultural pattern of Northeast Asia is bound to be reorganized. Specifically, the influence of China culture will become stronger and stronger, and it will even become the main body of the cultural pattern in Northeast Asia. However, the current political situation in Northeast Asia is very unfavorable to the cultural exchange between China and Northeast Asian countries, and there is no smooth communication environment. On the other hand, it will have a negative impact on the political, economic and military exchanges of Northeast Asian countries and further aggravate the distrust of Northeast Asian countries.

In a word, the political structure in Northeast Asia is closely related to the peaceful rise of China. Any event in the pattern of Northeast Asia will have a far-reaching impact on China, and the pattern of Northeast Asia will definitely undergo major changes in the future, which is based on the balance of the strength of various countries in Northeast Asia. In the new era, I believe that all countries in Northeast Asia will proceed from their own interests, properly handle the relations between countries and solve the problems between countries in a peaceful way. As a big country in Northeast Asia, China is also a rising power in the world, and will certainly successfully use peaceful diplomatic means to solve a series of problems brought about by the pattern of Northeast Asia.