Blue Book of Real Estate: The interest rate of the second home loan will remain stable, and the regulatory policies will be divided.

Blue Book of Real Estate: The interest rate of the second home loan will remain stable, and the regulatory policies will be divided.

Recently, the Institute of Urban Development and Environment of China Academy of Social Sciences and Social Science Literature Publishing House jointly published the Blue Book of Real Estate: China Real Estate Development Report (20 19) (hereinafter referred to as the Blue Book of Real Estate). The Blue Book of Real Estate pointed out that the increasing urbanization level is still the fundamental driving force for the development of China's real estate market, which is manifested in the housing demand generated by population growth and migration, improvement of living conditions and urban renewal and transformation. In 20 19, the urbanization rate of China is expected to increase by more than 1 percentage point compared with last year, and the real estate market still has great room for development.

The National New Urbanization Plan (20 14~2020) clearly states that by 2020, the level and quality of urbanization will be steadily improved, the urbanization rate of permanent residents will reach about 60%, the urbanization rate of registered population will reach about 45%, and the gap between the urbanization rate of registered population and the urbanization rate of permanent residents will be reduced by about 2 percentage points, so as to achieve the goal of 1 100 million agricultural transfer population and others. In 20 18, the total population of Chinese mainland was1395.38 million, of which the urban resident population was 831370,000, an increase of1790,000 over the end of 20 17; The proportion of urban population to the total population (urbanization rate) is 59.58%, which is 65,438+0.06 percentage points higher than the end of 2065,438+07. The urbanization rate of registered population was 43.37%, an increase of 1.02 percentage points over the end of last year. This trend will continue.

However, neither the policy environment nor the law of development supports the prosperity of real estate. In the government work report of 20 19, the main exposition of monetary policy is: prudent monetary policy should be moderate, and the growth rate of broad money M2 and social financing scale should match the nominal growth rate of GDP, so as to better meet the needs of maintaining economic operation in a reasonable range. In the actual implementation, we should not only supply money to the general gate, but also use various monetary policy tools flexibly, dredge the transmission channels of monetary policy, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, effectively alleviate the financing difficulties and high costs of the real economy, especially private and small and micro enterprises, and prevent and resolve financial risks. Deepen the reform of interest rate marketization and lower the real interest rate level.

According to this, the Blue Book of Real Estate believes that the current general tone of prudent monetary policy and moderate tightening has been basically determined. In the future, under the framework of sound monetary policy, it will be possible for the central bank to effectively "drip irrigation" the economy from multiple dimensions such as flow, flow direction and duration, so as to further enhance the transmission efficiency of the combined policy tools to the market and prevent "flooding". Although the deposit reserve ratio may be further lowered in 20 19, the magnitude and frequency will be less than 20 18. On the one hand, due to the downward pressure on the economy, it is necessary to increase financial support, especially in the case of bottlenecks in non-credit financing, and it is more likely that credit will be moderately accelerated; On the other hand, the economy needs to moderately increase market liquidity by reducing the deposit reserve ratio. However, in order to avoid "flooding", once the market liquidity basically reaches a reasonable and abundant state, it is impossible to continue to significantly reduce the deposit reserve ratio.

With the gradual upward growth of credit, fiscal expenditure rebounded, and foreign exchange holdings declined slightly, the central bank's directional control policy will continue to focus on strengthening credit to support the real economy, and monetary policy will continue the current stable tone and maintain a reasonable and abundant macro liquidity. It is predicted that the growth rate of M2 will gradually pick up in 20 19. The goal of structural deleveraging is to significantly reduce the leverage ratio of enterprises and stabilize the leverage ratio of households. At present, the performance of market credit level is generally consistent with this goal, and residents' performance is that the growth rate of medium and long-term loans has generally stabilized. The proportion of mortgage loans decreased from the end of 20 18 to 25. 13% month by month, and it will still fluctuate slightly at a low level in the later stage of prediction. On the enterprise side, the financing environment of housing enterprises has obviously "recovered", especially the domestic bond issuance has grown steadily, and the financing cost has also shown a slight downward trend.

According to the Blue Book of Real Estate, the space for monetary policy to continue to relax in 20 19 is gradually narrowing, and the stimulating effect on the property market is relatively limited. In addition, the regulatory thinking of "housing is not speculation, because of the city's policy" has not changed. It is predicted that the real estate market sales will fall back in 20 19, the investment growth rate will slow down, and the trend of stable adjustment of the industry will not change substantially.

Excessive pessimism is also unnecessary, and mortgage risk cannot endanger the foundation of banks. The Blue Book of Real Estate holds that individual housing loan is an important means to regulate the real estate market, and its trend is consistent with the overall internal logic of the real estate market. In terms of quantity, the growth rate of individual housing loan balance remained stable or declined slightly. On the one hand, this is the result of the continuation of policy regulation. On the other hand, the existing leverage level does not support the rise, and it is expected that the annual increase will not exceed 20%.

In terms of price, the interest rate of the second home loan will remain stable, with a slight decline at most, which means that the positioning of "no real estate speculation" has not changed substantially, so curbing speculative demand for investment remains the policy focus; The interest rate of the first home loan will be greatly reduced, which is a more prominent residential property of housing and a correction to the "accidental injury" of past regulation; On the whole, driven by the decline in the interest rate of the first home loan, the interest rate of the entire mortgage market will drop slightly.

In terms of risk, although the loan-to-income ratio, debt service ratio and loan-to-value ratio are all rising, there is no problem with the sustainability of debt. On the one hand, due to the low leverage ratio in the past, on the other hand, due to the large increase in house prices, there is a large room for decline. The Blue Book of Real Estate predicts that as long as the regulatory policies maintain a certain continuity, the future debt increment will be less than the house price increment, and the mortgage risk will not have a significant impact on banks in the short term.

For the orientation of real estate regulation and control policies, the Blue Book of Real Estate is summarized in three words: stability, differentiation and dispersion. 20 19 Maintaining the healthy and stable development of the real estate market is the top priority. Continue to maintain the continuity and stability of regulatory policies, strengthen the two-way mediation between supply and demand in the real estate market, improve the housing supply structure, support reasonable self-occupation demand, and ensure market stability.

Real estate control policies will be divided. After so many years of development, the real estate market has shown an obvious differentiation trend among different cities. In fact, different cities adopt different policies, even the differentiation at the policy level is the general trend. We will continue to maintain strict control policies for hot cities with relatively high pressure. While preventing real estate price bubbles, we will focus on promoting supply-side structural reforms. For third-and fourth-tier cities, it is mainly to maintain the stability of the real estate market and prevent the market price from falling too fast.

In 20 18 and 12, the central economic work conference positioned the real estate market in 66 words: "build a long-term mechanism for the healthy development of the real estate market, adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, and implement policies and classified guidance according to cities, consolidate the main responsibility of urban governments, and improve the housing market system and housing security system." This means that the independent power of local governments to regulate the real estate market is further expanded. If "one city, one policy" is set by the central government, then local governments put forward "one city, one policy" in the process of real estate regulation and control, which reflects the flexibility of policies. Emphasize "one city, one policy" and pay more attention to expanding the main responsibility and autonomy of local governments in real estate regulation and control. Because the transaction trend, inventory status and house price status of real estate market in different cities are different, the city government formulates policies according to the actual situation and assumes the main responsibility of regulation.