Will it be cheaper to buy a house in 2022 (is it better to buy a house this year or next year)

Time flies. It's time to say goodbye. There are less than 60 days left this year. I feel that time should not be so fast, because my thoughts are still around May Day.

This year is coming to an end. Did you achieve your goal? Buying a house, buying a car and saving money all seem to be below the standard. In fact, they should all meet the standards, but they dare not act rashly in the face of changes in the real estate market. A friend said, "Poverty means poverty. How can there be so much truth? " A simple sentence directly pokes the soul, and it really shows that it is really difficult to buy a house in the face of high housing prices. In the past few years, the most important reasons for people to buy houses are two simple reasons:

1. Life needs. In the past, real estate was really just for living. Now, is real estate really just for living? It is more cost-effective to rent a house. According to the current rent-to-sale ratio in China, many cities have reached 1:600, which is obviously not so simple. Today's real estate includes love, marriage, education, medical care, household registration, finance and other attributes. According to relevant research reports, the marriage rate of non-post-90s owners has reached 65%, and the marriage rate without real estate is only 25%. I have to admit. It can't be said to be material, but a necessity of life. Without real estate, all the resources mentioned just now are difficult to solve unless there is a lot of money.

Although the post-90s generation has become the main force in buying houses, young people are very tired of real estate. According to the survey data, the current age of young people buying a house is 27.8. Suppose they graduate from college at the age of 23 and work for five years, how much money can they save? If young people can buy their own property, they have been very successful in society. The reality is that many young people can only buy their own property with the help of their families. After buying a property, they have to pay back their mortgage for 30 years, and the monthly repayment amount basically accounts for 40~50% of their income, which further reduces their quality of life. Unlike car loans, mortgages can be solved in 35 years.

2. Return on investment. According to the statistics of RealData, the average house price in 65 cities in September was RMB 17388 per square meter, the online listing price of second-hand houses was RMB 17020 per square meter, and the average house price in four first-tier cities was RMB 65,000 per square meter. How do you feel when you see this house price? Suddenly, I thought, I can't afford it.

For investors, the higher the house price rises, the greater the profit space. What is the biggest and most stable return on investment in the past 10 years? Everyone said with one voice that if you buy a house, you don't have to worry about it. After two or three years, the house price doubled, with high leverage and high return. Suppose you buy a house worth 1 10,000. The total price of the house rose to 2 million, and the investment cost was less than 450,000. All of them can be settled, and the income reached 1 10,000, and the annual income was as high as 73%. Many people made a lot of money in this way, starting with Wenzhou real estate speculators, and then Shenzhen real estate speculators. After 2065,438+06, "real estate speculation by the whole people" appeared.

Even in recent years, the increase in house prices has not gone as fast as in the past. Some people say that house prices can fight inflation. Real estate has caused many people to have the illusion that house prices "only rise and not fall". In the past two years, the regulation of the property market has been very tight, and the upward trend of housing prices has been curbed. At the same time, there are signs of falling house prices in many cities. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that both transaction volume and transaction price declined in September, and the price of new houses ushered in the first decline in six years. At present, has the property lost its investment value? Investors are looking for opportunities, but they just need people to wait and see the market. Insiders: In 2022, the house will usher in a "price reduction tide", and the house price will be beyond imagination next year.

There are also some people who firmly believe in their own views, saying that housing prices will not easily turn around. With the advent of the era of global inflation, housing prices in the United States, Turkey, Australia, Spain and other countries have risen to varying degrees, with some cities' housing prices rising as high as 30%. Why don't domestic housing prices go up?

The land price, the most critical factor in building a house, has not been greatly adjusted back. The costs of cement, steel and labor are all rising, and it is relatively difficult for house prices to fall. But these people forget that real estate is also a commodity price, which always goes up and down, even though house prices in other countries are rising. But this does not take into account that domestic real estate funds have been completely restricted. Can real estate without funds be "crazy"? In other words, goods don't have to make money. For example, last year, pork cost more than 30 yuan a catty, but this year, the price of pork is only about 10 yuan. Has its production cost dropped? On the contrary, it has risen, and the rise and fall of commodity prices is determined by demand.

At present, the regulation of the entire property market has been gradually deepened. According to the data of Central Plains Research Institute, as of mid-June 10, the number of property market regulation has exceeded 500 times. There are three red lines in the most critical policy regulation, aiming at the debt ratio, cash flow and short-term debt ratio of real estate enterprises. The two red lines are aimed at the upper limit of the proportion of housing enterprises and personal loans, and also crack down on illegal funds flowing into the property market; The reference guide price of second-hand houses is based on policies such as purchase restriction, loan restriction and sale restriction. Owners are not as arrogant as the whole market in the past, and people who own multiple properties are also there, gradually cashing out their houses, and the market has changed from the seller's market in the past to the buyer's market.

202 1, real estate inventory increased greatly;

The number of second-hand housing listings has risen rapidly. According to the data released by Yiju Research Institute, at the end of the third quarter, the number of second-hand houses listed in 60 cities nationwide reached 3.2 million, and the inventory of second-hand houses in Chongqing, Tianjin and Shenyang reached 6.5438+0.5 million. The inventory in Chengdu and Nanjing also exceeded 6.5438+0.2 million sets; The inventory of second-hand houses in Hefei, Wuhan and other cities also exceeded 65,438+10,000 sets; Dalian, Yinchuan, Xuzhou, Zhongshan, Foshan and other cities also hit the 654.38+ 10,000 mark.

202 1 national 100 urban new commercial housing inventory data shows that the inventory area is about 5 1 10,000 square meters, and the generalized inventory is 3.77 billion square meters. Tens of millions of houses will be put on the market in the next two years.

Real estate enterprises are facing the most difficult days:

Before June 2023, we must return to the "green file". However, the whole person was shocked to see such data. In 20021year, the debt owed to housing enterprises reached1282.2 billion yuan, which will become the peak of debt repayment between 20 19-2023. Judging from the current development situation, it is estimated that the debt service will be around 900 billion yuan in 2022. Do real estate developers really have that much money to pay back? The answer is obviously no, we can only choose to sell at a reduced price.

Since the beginning of this year, leading enterprises such as Evergrande, Country Garden, Sunac and Greenland have reduced their prices in third-and fourth-tier cities. Based on the repayment amount in 2022, the property market will continue in 20021year. Recently, many cities have issued "price limit orders" in order to stabilize housing prices, prevent housing enterprises from maliciously reducing prices and disrupt the stability and health of the whole market. This is not to say that house prices can't fall, but that they can't fall in a short time.

The price of new houses has dropped. Is the price of second-hand housing really so strong? There are so many houses in the market, I believe that the owners will definitely be like developers in order to withdraw funds. If you reduce the price by 6,543,800 yuan, I will reduce the price by 6,543,800 yuan.

The golden age of real estate has gradually receded. Don't invest in buying a house yet. If you just need a house, pay attention to your own market and choose the right time to start. Faced with such a market situation, there are many houses left for buyers to choose, and they can mediate slowly according to their own needs, so don't worry at all. Buying only one house is facing an upward trend.