What is the decisive factor of a country's rise?

Professor paul kennedy of Yale University, USA:

A single factor must be wrong, and a combination of many factors must be the reason for the rise of great powers.

Alexei Voskresenski of Moscow State Institute of International Relations:

It must occupy an important position in the world economy. Obviously, a country with a fragile economy cannot become a big country.

Former British Foreign Secretary Jeffrey Howe:

A strong country needs developed economic and political stability, especially mutual trust and respect between people and leaders.

Pierre Rosanvallon, a researcher at the French Institute of Advanced Social Sciences:

It is not enough for a strong country to have strong material strength, it should also be attractive.

Professor immanuel wallerstein of Yale University, USA:

There must be a certain scale, a certain ability, a certain military strength and a certain internal cohesion.

Professor Zheng Yongnian, University of Nottingham, UK:

All former countries and rising powers are due to the perfection of their internal national systems. The so-called external rise of a country is actually an extension of its internal strength.

In the interview, we found that until today, the mystery of great powers is still a difficult topic, and the answers provided by scholars from various countries are also different. An interesting phenomenon is that hundreds of domestic and foreign experts interviewed attach great importance to the influence of ideology and culture and its role in the rise of great powers when talking about this topic.

British Prime Minister Winston Churchill famously said: I would rather lose an India than a Shakespeare. In the process of becoming a great country, the playwright Shakespeare's works carried forward the British humanistic spirit, the scientist Newton's laws of mechanics opened the door to the British industrial revolution, and the economist Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations provided a new economic order for Britain. Their names are strikingly written on the road of great countries that Britain has traveled.

In the Panthé on, the holy land of French thought and spirit, the main entrance is engraved with the following words: "To the great men, the motherland thanks them." There are 72 French historical figures buried here, of which only 1 1 is a politician, and most of the rest are thinkers, writers, artists and scientists. For many years, France and the United States have been making their voices known to the world with their outstanding cultural influence, which may be the fundamental reason.

Wu Jianmin, Dean of China Foreign Affairs University:

If a country wants to rise, it must think creatively, right? If the mind is full of old ideas, can the country rise? Can't get up. Can you innovate when your mind is bound? Cannot innovate. So the role of culture appears here.

Joseph Yaning, Executive Deputy Director of the Center for Applied Political Studies in Munich, Germany:

We can say that cultural factors are very important, such as a good level of national education, which is very important.

Marianne Basti, Academician of School of Humanities and Politics, French Academy of Sciences:

The influence of a culture on the world depends on the powerful economy that produces this culture.

Of course, there is another answer to the mystery of great powers, and that is institutional innovation. /kloc-In the 7th century, the Netherlands, with an area only two and a half times that of Beijing, created a global business empire with the establishment of a series of modern financial and commercial systems. They set up the earliest joint-stock company in the world to gather capital and monopolized half of the global trade at that time; They established the first stock exchange in the world, 300 years earlier than the new york Stock Exchange, and the capital market was born. They also took the lead in establishing modern banks and invented the credit system that we still use today.

After the Netherlands, Britain established a global market by promoting free trade and gradually established a free market economy model; When the disadvantages of this model triggered a social crisis, the United States joined the means of government intervention in the 1930s. Since then, the interaction between "visible hand" and "invisible hand" has changed people's understanding of the traditional market economy model. Some historians believe that in the past 500 years, only three countries really had world hegemony: the Netherlands, Britain and the United States. All three countries have carried out baton-style market economy innovation and development. Scholars also believe that Britain and the United States provide corresponding institutional guarantees for economic development.

Professor Qian Chengdan, History Department of Peking University, China:

Britain is the first country to establish a modern national system. For example, the cabinet system, constitutional monarchy, two-party system and the government's accountability to parliament, which we are familiar with now, were first established in Britain. Such a political system can keep the country stable for a long time, so it is conducive to economic development.

Wang Jisi, Dean of Peking University Institute of International Relations, China:

After Europe immigrated to the United States, it was tantamount to establishing a brand-new country in the New World. Such a country has a supreme constitution and a complete legal system under it. Relatively speaking, this balance of power promotes the development of social productive forces.

The mystery of great powers is difficult to solve because the development models of various countries can never be simply copied and imitated, but they must find a path that suits them. What is the answer for developing countries to become big countries?

1697, a group of Russian youths came to a shipyard in Zandan, the Netherlands as apprentices. The most outstanding apprentice is a man who calls himself Peter mikhailov. He is two meters tall. His master and workmates recommended him as an "excellent craftsman". This man is Russian czar Peter. This move by Peter the Great opened the curtain for Russia to become a powerful country. The ambitious czar moved the capital from Moscow to St. Petersburg. He wanted to shorten not only the space distance with Europe, but also the national strength gap.

Broadening our horizons and learning from developed countries is undoubtedly the beginning of the road to prosperity for late-developing countries. The purpose of study is to catch up. Historically, Germany and Japan are the same late-developing countries as Russia in implementing the catch-up strategy. The social system they established, the road to modernization and the countries that took the lead in realizing industrialization are obviously different.

Director of China Peking University World Modernization Research Center Dong:

Promoting economic construction by the state, such as Germany, Japan, the Soviet Union and other countries in the 20th century, can be said to be a * * * feature of later industrialized countries. Because most of these countries have just experienced national reconstruction, compared with social forces, the power of the state is relatively strong.

Juergen Koka, President of the International Historical Society:

To a great extent, the modernization of Germany is initiated and realized by the state from top to bottom. The United States and Britain are mainly driven by society, and the driving force comes from society.

Wu Jianmin, Dean of China Foreign Affairs University:

The process of modernization is an inflow process. Therefore, if the late-developing countries want to remember it, they must flow in, and if they don't, they will fall behind. Then in this inflow process, it must be state-led.

The reason for becoming a big country may be an endless topic. The mystery of great powers is undoubtedly a multi-solution answer. At different times, only those countries that make correct strategic judgments according to their own national conditions and the needs of the times can gain the favor of history.

However, the mind of history is not as generous as people think. It always makes those countries that conform to its rules for the first time and have the core competitiveness of that period play a leading role in the world.

Today, looking around the world, we can easily find that 60 years after the end of World War II, the pre-war powers are still the most active powers in the world today.

Because, when the vast majority of countries have not completed modernization, these countries have already taken the lead in this process.

Yoshida Yoshida, Honorary Professor of Waseda University, Japan:

Japan has achieved modernization, which on the other hand proves that modernization is not unique to Western Europe, but of universal significance.

Vladimir Mao, President of the State Academy of Economic Sciences of the Russian government:

To become a modern power, we must go through a long road and a process of economic and political modernization.

Director of China Peking University World Modernization Research Center Dong:

The rise of a country is to rise to become a modern country, that is, to realize modernization. The history of nearly 500 years has fully proved this point, especially for big countries.