Data shows that residents’ deposits decreased by 1.36 trillion yuan in July. Where did these deposits go?

Income is falling instead of increasing, prices are rising steadily, and the surplus grain is getting smaller and smaller, leaving only chicken feathers.

Resident deposits decreased by 1.36 trillion in July. Where did these deposits go?

The reasons for the decrease may be as follows:

1. It may have flowed into the stock market.

According to personal statistics, the transaction amount of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in June was 29,872.8 billion yuan, and the transaction amount of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in July was 30,094.883 billion yuan. The transaction amount in July was only 222.083 billion yuan more than that in June.

This shows that even if some of it flows into the stock market, the amount of inflow will not be too much, at most 100 billion.

2. Economic and epidemic reasons have caused many people to lose their jobs and start living on their own laurels, or even rest on their laurels.

It is undeniable that the economic downturn and the epidemic have led to the bankruptcy of many small and micro enterprises. According to data collected by Tianyan, in the first quarter of 2020, 460,000 companies in China went bankrupt, including those whose operating licenses were cancelled, and Companies that have self-declared to cease operations also include 26,000 companies engaged in exporting.

According to Qichacha statistics, in 2020, 3.01 million small and medium-sized enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households across the country were closed and deregistered.

There should be more this year. The bankruptcy of a large number of enterprises and physical stores will inevitably make many people unemployed. These unemployed people have no income and can only rest on their laurels, leading to a decline in residents' savings.

Personally I think this is the main reason. I personally conducted a survey at the local farmer's market and found that since the pork price increase epidemic began, local pork consumption has been less than half of the original, mainly due to reduced income, which has even affected breakfast restaurants.

The two annual bonuses given to local civil servants in previous years can no longer be honored.

3. Down payment for buying a house.

Judging from the July financial statistics released by the People's Bank of China, in July, RMB loans increased by 1.08 trillion yuan, an increase of 90.5 billion yuan over the same period last year. Among them, household loans increased by 405.9 billion yuan, with medium and long-term loans accounting for 98%.

There is also data saying that the sales area and value of commercial housing in July fell by 8.5% and 7.1% respectively year-on-year, and by 42% and 40% month-on-month respectively, falling to the lowest level in the past year.

Obviously, the mid- to long-term part is personal housing mortgage loans. Then, it is possible that the down payment for home purchases has led to a decline in residents’ deposits, but it will not exceed 200 billion. Judging from the decline in housing sales area and amount , there is a part of the funds for house purchase, but it is only a small part, and it is not the main reason for the decline.

4. Investment and Financial Management

According to data released by the Banking Financial Management Custody Center, the existing scale of financial management products at the end of June reached 25.80 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.37%.

At the same time, the number of investors holding wealth management products reached 61.3773 million, a year-on-year increase of 137.71%

The scale of the existence of wealth management products at the end of July was not found, but the number of wealth management products issued by banks across the country was found. There were 5,182 models sold, a month-on-month decrease of 1,013 models. This data shows that the scale of financial management products may also have declined in July.

Of course, in order to offset deposit time points in June, banks may design financial management products to expire in the days near the end of June, and convert a large number of expired financial products into personal deposits of residents, and in early July The transformation into financial management products has led to a decline in residents' deposits. Judging from personal experience in the financial system, this figure should be in the hundreds of billions.

5. The immigration of wealthy people, studying abroad and other reasons have led to a decline in residents’ deposits.

More and more wealthy people are joining the ranks of immigrants, which to a certain extent has led to the loss of our country’s assets. According to statistics, about 15,000 wealthy people immigrated to my country in 2018, an increase of half compared to the previous year. This number is also the largest in the world.

An article published by the Financial Investment News in August also showed that in recent years, domestic offshore trust assets transferred abroad have reached hundreds of billions. Entrepreneurs such as Jack Ma, Lei Jun, and Liu Qiangdong all have their own Offshore trusts. Of course, not all offshore trusts are intended for immigration purposes, but some certainly are.

However, detailed data cannot be found for analysis, and the same is true for studying abroad.

In short, from the above data analysis, it can be seen that the main reasons for the decrease in residents’ deposits are: first, the impact of the epidemic, e-commerce and economic downturn caused many enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households to close down, and a large number of people lost their jobs and began to eat their laurels; second, This is due to the immigration of a large number of wealthy people and the transfer of assets; third, banks concentrated their wealth management products to offset deposits and turned them into deposits when they matured at the end of June, and then converted them into wealth management products in early July, resulting in a decline in deposits; a small amount of them also flowed into the stock market and bought houses.

The above is only a superficial personal analysis. If there is any inappropriateness, please criticize and correct it.

We, the tourism industry, cannot last long, especially overseas travel

We have spent everything during the epidemic, and our income has dropped

which has been balanced by rising prices.

The mortgage is paid.

Most of those who have spare money go into the stock market and funds.

How much is the resident loan?

Financial management

Moved overseas [呲呲]