The main problems and countermeasures of Xinjiang's export at present

The Central Asian market is of special significance to China, because it not only has huge purchasing power, but also has rich energy and resource reserves indispensable for China's economic development, which is an important guarantee for China to realize energy and resource security. Kazakhstan (hereinafter referred to as Kazakhstan) is the most powerful country in Central Asia and has close trade relations with China. As the only region bordering Kazakhstan in China, Xinjiang has always played an important role in Sino-Kazakhstan economic and trade cooperation, and is the main body of China's exports to Kazakhstan. In 2008, Xinjiang's foreign trade volume reached $2221700 million, with a growth rate of 62%, ranking second in the country. The total import and export volume rose to 12 in the country, ranking first in the west and surpassing Sichuan. The border trade with Central Asia was US$ 65.438+07.642 billion, up by 87.4% year-on-year, accounting for 79.4% of Xinjiang's total foreign trade and 57. 1% of the national total border trade. Xinjiang has become a veritable border trade province. In 2008, the number of countries and regions that have established economic and trade relations with Xinjiang has reached 167, among which Kazakhstan, as the most important member of the eight neighboring countries in Xinjiang, accounted for 50.8% of Xinjiang's total foreign trade in 2007, and fell to 40.8% in 2008 due to the financial crisis, but it is still the largest trade target country in Xinjiang.

Affected by the spread of the financial crisis, slowing demand, sharp drop in oil prices and capital flight, Kazakhstan's fiscal revenue has fallen sharply, its ability to invest, pay and accept foreign labor services has declined, infrastructure investment and consumption have decreased, the liquidity of the financial system has encountered certain difficulties, some small and medium-sized enterprises have closed down, and the uncertainties restricting economic growth have greatly increased. The World Bank predicts that Kazakhstan's GDP growth rate from 2009 to 20 1 1 year will be about 2.7% ~ 4. 1%, and the slowdown of economic growth will directly affect market demand, resulting in a very difficult period for Xinjiang's exports to Kazakhstan since the second half of 2008, especially since the fourth quarter. The export data in the first quarter of 2009 also showed a sharp year-on-year decline. At present, Xinjiang is facing a serious practical problem of how to successfully overcome the export trough and realize the sustained growth of exports to Kazakhstan.

Nurgaliev, Secretary-General of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, has made it clear that Central Asia is likely to become a powerful economic center because it is rich in natural resources. According to purchasing power parity, Russia's per capita GDP in 2007 was $65,438 +0 1000, ranking first in the Commonwealth of Independent States, and Kazakhstan ranked second with $9,000. Kazakhstan may even surpass Russia in the future. Obviously, there is still a huge room for improvement in Kazakhstan's import capacity, which is of great practical significance to the study of Kazakhstan's export growth.

Second, the basis of export growth.

(A) the economic base

Kazakhstan has a solid economic foundation and strong economic strength, second only to Russia in the CIS countries. The population of this country is second only to Uzbekistan among the five Central Asian countries. At the end of 2007, the total population was about 15397000. According to the President of Kazakhstan's State of the Union address in 2005, Kazakhstan's social and economic development level has surpassed that of Southeast European countries and is approaching that of Central European countries. According to the standards of the World Bank, Kazakhstan has entered the ranks of upper-middle income countries. In 2007, Kazakhstan's GDP reached US$ 65.438+0038 billion, and its per capita GDP reached US$ 6,744, ranking first among the five countries in Central Asia (see table 654.38+0). Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev said at the17th Foreign Investment Conference that by 20 15, Kazakhstan's GDP is expected to reach 300 billion US dollars. In 2006, the nominal per capita monthly salary of Kazakh residents was about $323, up 26% year-on-year, and further increased to $370 in 2007 (see Table 2). It can be seen that Kazakhstan's domestic market has great potential, and there is still huge room for Kazakhstan to continue to expand its exports.

(B) the basis of trade

1. The two sides have close trade relations and high dependence on the bilateral market.

Kazakhstan is Xinjiang's largest trading partner, while China is Kazakhstan's second largest trading partner, second largest source of imports (after Russia) and third largest export market (after Russia and Switzerland) (see Table 4). Since 1992, Sino-Kazakhstan trade has grown at an average annual rate of 25.2%, and its share in Kazakhstan's foreign trade has increased from 3.5% to 14% (see table 3). In 2008, the trade volume between Xinjiang and Kazakhstan was 9.3 billion US dollars, accounting for 40.8% of the total trade volume in Xinjiang.

2. Bilateral trade is highly complementary.

In terms of resource endowment, Kazakhstan's energy, total resources and per capita possession are very high, while Xinjiang is committed to building a large channel to ensure energy resources in western China, and a large number of them are sold to the domestic market for their own use to alleviate the shortage. This is the embodiment of the strategy of "two markets and two resources", and this field will be the focus of current and future cooperation. According to the market demand, 80% of Kazakhstan's oil needs to be exported, and the main imports from Xinjiang are mechanical and electrical products, transportation equipment, textile industrial products and daily necessities. With the implementation of Xinjiang's strategy of "linking the east with the west, and bringing the west into the east", Xinjiang has become the center of China's trade and investment activities with Kazakhstan and the commodity distribution center. The strong manufacturing industry in coastal areas will provide continuous material support to meet the market demand of Kazakhstan. Compared with Europe and America, Kazakhstan is less affected by the financial crisis. Xinjiang's export structure mainly belongs to daily consumer goods such as clothing, shoes and hats, bags, textiles and agricultural products. There is an obvious comparative advantage in price. In the case that the income expectation of consumers in Kazakhstan is unstable and the consumption of durable consumer goods and investment consumer goods is correspondingly reduced, the demand for basic consumer goods exported by Xinjiang may increase, which can be said to be an opportunity to some extent.

(3) Resource base

Kazakhstan is rich in natural resources, with many kinds of minerals and large reserves. Among them, tungsten reserves rank first in the world, chrome ore ranks second in the world with 30%, copper ore accounts for 10%, lead ore accounts for 19%, zinc ore accounts for 13%, ranking first in the world, and manganese ore accounts for 25%, ranking third in the world. In addition, the prospective oil reserves are1300 million tons, second only to Russia in the CIS countries. Natural gas reserves 1 1700 trillion cubic meters, coal reserves of 54 billion tons. Enjoy the reputation of energy and raw materials base, especially the undeveloped Caspian Sea, known as the "second Persian Gulf", with amazing oil and gas reserves. Kazakhstan's abundant resources and energy provide an important guarantee for Xinjiang to implement the strategy of deep processing and export of imported resources in the future.

(D) the basis of industrial cooperation

Kazakhstan's economic development is dominated by oil, coal, natural gas, mining, agriculture, animal husbandry and heavy industry, but its processing industry, machinery manufacturing and light industry are relatively backward, and its products are not competitive in the international market. The industrial cooperation between Xinjiang and Kazakhstan can focus on extractive industries and heavy industries. Because of the high threshold of investment cooperation, large amount of funds needed and high investment risk, it is suitable for large enterprises in Xinjiang to make centralized investment. By the end of 2007, Kazakhstan had utilized a total of 68.8 billion US dollars of foreign capital, making it the country that attracted the most foreign capital in Central Asia. 45% of foreign capital is invested in mining. At present, EU investment accounts for 53% of Kazakhstan's total foreign investment, and Russia is the second largest investor. By the end of 2005, Xinjiang had set up 30 overseas investment enterprises in Kazakhstan, with an agreed investment of US$ 26.46 million, accounting for 45.3% of Xinjiang's total foreign investment. In recent years, the export of mechanical and electrical products and equipment driven by foreign capital has increasingly become a new growth point for Xinjiang's exports to Kazakhstan. For example, in 2008, due to the full implementation of the Sino-Kazakhstan oil and gas pipeline project, China's steel pipe exports to Kazakhstan increased significantly, accounting for 24.8% of Kazakhstan's imports from China; The export of drilling rigs and other construction machinery increased by nearly 72% year-on-year (the import value in 2007 was $79 million); Moreover, due to the participation of China communication enterprises in Kazakhstan's communication projects, the number and amount of communication equipment exported to Kazakhstan have also increased significantly.

Third, the choice of trade mode for export growth.

(a) We should focus on the government-led model and strengthen communication and coordination at the bilateral government level.

Compared with other Central Asian countries, Kazakhstan has a strong government, and Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev has taken strong measures to ensure national stability and macro-control. However, due to the fact that the Kazakh government attaches too much importance to national economic security, and the preferential policies are untrue, some domestic political forces and news media are hostile to China, believing that the government's "excessive concessions" will harm national interests, and China is "quietly colonizing" illegal immigrants in Central Asia. The government of Kazakhstan holds a conservative attitude towards economic and trade cooperation with Xinjiang, and its trade policy is more inclined to protect trade. During the financial crisis, due to the closure or acquisition and takeover of some financial institutions, the credit of some countries or regions has deteriorated and shrunk, and the performance risk and settlement risk in trade have further increased, which will further shrink international trade and intensify the fierce competition in the international market. The trade policies of countries around the world tend to be conservative, and the threat of trade protectionism has increased. The tight trade environment makes it more difficult for Xinjiang enterprises to explore Kazakhstan market than before. Only by constantly improving the level of trade liberalization between the two sides can we ensure the steady growth of exports. In order to further expand Xinjiang's exports to Kazakhstan, it is necessary to strengthen the dialogue with the Kazakh government and completely lift the institutional constraints in the process of trade liberalization and development with Kazakhstan.

(B) should actively promote the "trade first, industry linkage" "investment and export interaction model."

Kazakhstan's economy is a typical resource-oriented development model. This model is often adopted by countries with rich resources and small population, such as the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries. These countries mainly rely on resource advantages to vigorously develop resource exports and processing and manufacturing industries based on resource advantages. In recent years, Kazakhstan has successfully achieved rapid economic growth by relying on the resource-oriented development model. Xinjiang should continue to expand the import of resources from Kazakhstan, actively implement the strategy of deep processing of imported resources, and gradually increase the export of products of deep processing of resources from Kazakhstan. In the process of export, we should gradually deepen the cooperation in the field of resources, expand the width of cooperation, and lay a solid foundation for further industrial cooperation in the field of deep processing of resources. At the same time, Xinjiang enterprises should also try the strategy of "going out", carry out cooperative development and processing of overseas resources in Kazakhstan, and promote the export of a large number of invested equipment and products in the process of strengthening investment in Kazakhstan, so as to smoothly realize the positive effect of mutual pull between investment and export.

Fourth, the path choice of export growth.

(1) Constantly enrich trade means and expand new trade space.

Border trade plays a very important role in the development of Xinjiang's foreign trade. In 2008, the small-scale border trade volume reached US$ 65.438+07.642 billion, up 87.4% year-on-year, accounting for 79.4% of Xinjiang's total foreign trade, which is the most important trade mode. Xinjiang border small-scale trade means that Xinjiang enterprises take orders from Central Asia, then purchase goods from developed coastal areas and resell them to Kazakhstan. Essentially, it is a re-export trade in China. Due to the backwardness of local industries in Xinjiang, the local products exported are less than 30% of all export commodities. Foreign trade enterprises in Xinjiang are mainly small and medium-sized private enterprises, and their bargaining power in Kazakhstan market is weak. The benefits brought by this domestic entrepot trade to the local economic growth in Xinjiang are actually very limited. Obviously, it is necessary to enrich trade means and actively expand new trade space.

1. Strengthening the construction of local commodity export bases in Xinjiang is an important fulcrum for expanding exports.

There are many historical and economic reasons for the formation and development of domestic entrepot trade. But looking forward to the future, Xinjiang should still focus on general trade, which is an inevitable choice for Xinjiang to upgrade its industrialization level, realize industrial upgrading and even expand employment channels. Therefore, at present, Xinjiang should attract large domestic enterprises to build export commodity production bases in large and medium-sized cities along the Xinjiang section of the New Eurasian Continental Bridge, and carry out various forms of economic and trade cooperation with Kazakhstan in goods trade, service trade, processing trade and investment cooperation. Focus on the construction of agricultural products, building materials and high-tech export bases to lay a solid foundation for the sustainable development of exports. Through the construction of export bases, we can effectively adjust and optimize the product structure, improve the quality and added value of export commodities, enhance the international competitiveness of local products in Xinjiang, and enhance the scale, standardization, intensification and internationalization of export products. Give full play to the demonstration, driving and radiation capabilities of export bases, form a certain scale of industrial agglomeration, promote the organic combination of trade and industry, and enhance the supporting role of industry in trade.

2. Strive to develop export processing trade into a driving force for future export growth.

Kazakhstan's price, labor force and land are relatively high, and its economic security is emphasized everywhere. There are more and more policies to prevent and discriminate against other countries, which leads to a high entry threshold for foreign investment and an increase in costs. Therefore, it is obviously not a reasonable choice to invest in developing overseas processing business of finished products in Kazakhstan. However, Kazakhstan has great market potential, high income and strong consumption power. Therefore, Xinjiang can cultivate and develop its export processing business to Kazakhstan through Urumqi Export Processing Zone, Shihezi Economic and Technological Development Zone, Bole Border Economic Cooperation Zone and Yining Border Economic Cooperation Zone, among which Urumqi-Changji is applying for approval to become the key undertaking point of processing trade in eastern and coastal areas. Shihezi Economic and Technological Development Zone is the closest national development zone to Central Asia, and is currently actively committed to the development and construction of export-oriented processing along the New Eurasian Continental Bridge. At the same time, we can also make use of Kazakhstan's rich resources to vigorously develop the processing trade of imported resources, such as setting up export processing zones at Alashankou and Horgos, the two most important border ports open to Kazakhstan, and building them into a window and an important platform for Xinjiang to expand its import processing trade with Kazakhstan. Developing import and export processing trade with Kazakhstan is also a concrete embodiment of Xinjiang's strategy of undertaking the industrial gradient transfer in the east. Trade-oriented, promoting the development of processing and manufacturing industry is conducive to the implementation of Xinjiang's superior resource transformation strategy and new industrialization strategy. Through the further expansion of trade scale, it will form a strong flow of people, logistics, capital and information, attract domestic and foreign industries to transfer to Xinjiang, and finally build Xinjiang into an export processing base to the west.

(2) Expand the functional width of the port and tap the economic potential.

At present, Xinjiang has approved the opening of Class I ports 17, and 7 ports are open to Kazakhstan, mainly Alashankou, Horgos, Baktu and Jimunai. Among them, Alashankou Port is the only port in China with railway, highway and pipeline transportation. It is known as the west bridgehead of the China section of the New Eurasian Continental Bridge, and it is the golden channel for Xinjiang to implement the strategy of "connecting east and west". Cargo throughput accounts for 90% of all ports in Xinjiang. In 2008, the cargo throughput exceeded 20 million tons, second only to Manzhouli in domestic land ports. Horgos Port is located at the middle end of the New Eurasian Continental Bridge, and its natural conditions are superior to Alashankou. At present, it has the handling capacity of 3 million passengers entering and leaving the country and 2 million tons of import and export goods, making it the largest highway port in western China. With the completion of Jing-Yi-Huo Railway and the opening of China's first transnational gas pipeline, the Central Asian natural gas pipeline, Horgos will also develop into a comprehensive port with three modes of transportation: railway, highway and pipeline, with great development potential. The two major ports have become the most important windows and portals for economic and trade cooperation between Kazakhstan and New Zealand. Based on ports and relying on the new Eurasian Continental Bridge, the role of Xinjiang as an international trade channel will be continuously improved. However, at present, the port can not only be satisfied as an important international trade channel, but should break through the limitations of the original circulation function and strengthen the trade function, so that the original gold trade channel will gradually develop into a trade base with Kazakhstan, and the economic potential of the port will continue to improve.

(3) Starting from the establishment of Khorgos International Border Cooperation Center, continuously improve the level of trade liberalization.

The political and social stability in Kazakhstan provides a stable trade environment for Xinjiang to expand its exports. However, in recent years, although Kazakhstan has continuously improved its trade and investment environment, its economic and trade policies are unrealistic, the policies change rapidly, lack of coherence and consistency, strict restrictions on the entry of Xinjiang products and investments, and imperfect international arbitration mechanism, making it difficult to properly resolve economic disputes among enterprises. The uncertainty of policy increases the export risk of Xinjiang enterprises. In addition, since Kazakhstan has not yet joined the WTO, there is still a big gap between its domestic market norms and those of developed countries, which has affected the fair competition of enterprises. Xinjiang's export commodities often encounter discriminatory treatment with the same quality but different prices, and the investment approval is too harsh and the threshold is very high. Therefore, it is imperative to eliminate trade barriers and promote trade liberalization.

In September, 2004, China and Kazakhstan signed an agreement to establish the Khorgos International Border Cooperation Center between China and Kazakhstan, and made joint efforts to build it into a demonstration area of regional cooperation under the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. This is the earliest free trade zone between Xinjiang and Central Asian countries, which will accumulate experience for the exploration model of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization's free trade zone construction. In March, 2006, the government of China officially granted the Center the dual preferential policies of export processing zone and bonded zone, which marked that the Center entered the stage of all-round development. The center will be built into a free port integrating regional processing and manufacturing, regional transit, regional procurement, financial services, tourism and leisure, and a highly open comprehensive international economic exchange and cooperation zone with free investment, trade and personnel exchanges. In the future, the successful experience of the center can be gradually extended to the remaining six ports open to Kazakhstan, especially Alashankou port, and finally these seven ports will be turned into important platforms for trade liberalization with Kazakhstan, thus continuously improving the level of trade liberalization between the two sides.

(D) Clearly define the functional orientation of prefectures, rationally distribute them, and strive to "let a hundred flowers blossom" in Xinjiang's exports.

Urumqi and Changji should seize the opportunity of the integrated development of Urumqi and Changji, and actively build export processing bases and modern international business centers to Kazakhstan; Yili should rely on Horgos International Border Cooperation Center to form an open industrial structure with production, processing and export as the main body; Bozhou should base itself on the advantages of the port, actively play the role of a major channel for energy resources, and comprehensively promote the strategy of transforming superior resources and the process of new industrialization; Kashgar should become the center of gravity of the Central Asian economic circle with the help of the platform of Harbin Fair. Tacheng area should focus on building green vegetable export base.

Concluding remarks

There are good foundations and realistic conditions to realize the sustained growth of exports to Kazakhstan. China should conduct more government-level communication and consultation with Kazakhstan to strive for a more relaxed cooperation environment for export growth. At the same time, we should also carry out multi-level industrial and trade cooperation with Kazakhstan on the basis of interaction between investment and export. To choose the export growth path, Xinjiang must base itself on the long-term, strengthen the construction of local commodity export bases, and gradually develop export processing trade with Kazakhstan into the driving force for future export growth. In addition, we can make full use of geographical advantages, expand the function of opening ports to Kazakhstan, tap the economic potential of ports, and gradually develop ports from trade corridors into trade bases and trade liberalization platforms. The impact of the financial crisis is only temporary, and the future of export growth can be expected