Can house prices really go to stock?

At the beginning of 2008, the government proposed to destock real estate. This has led to a sharp rise in some first-and second-tier cities. Even panic buying houses and property hoarding. The market seems to have changed from oversupply to short supply overnight. Many people think that the rise in house prices has successfully achieved destocking.

Some local leaders even proudly said that the rising house prices have succeeded in destocking, on the grounds that the sales of houses have increased in recent months due to the rising house prices. In fact, this view is outrageous for the following reasons:

1, only 4% of the inventory was actually removed in half a year, slightly higher than the 700 million square meters of 20 15 1 1. It means that the inventory removed by the price increase within half a year is the inventory increased in the first two months;

At the end of 20 15, the area of commercial housing for sale was 71853,000 square meters, an increase of 22 17000 square meters compared with the end of1.

According to the report of China Times, "the national commercial housing inventory dropped from the peak of 2065438+739 million square meters in February 2006 to 708 million square meters in August, only 3 1 10,000, accounting for about 4%." Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, since February 20 16, although the area of commercial housing for sale in China has declined for six consecutive months, the monthly decline is not much, and it has not exceeded100000 square meters in a month.

2. The area under construction in China is larger, and the inventory of rising house prices can be ignored, less than 0.5%;

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, by the end of 20 15 and 10, the area of commercial housing for sale in China was 686 million square meters, and the area under construction was more than 7 billion square meters.

3. Rising house prices and land prices have led to an increase in the enthusiasm of local governments for land supply, and the enthusiasm of developers for land development that was previously hoarded has also increased, and the newly increased development area will also increase accordingly, even exceeding the area increased by sales;

The excessive rise of house price makes some buyers unable to buy again. And lead to a decrease in total demand;

5. The rapid rise of house prices leads to the decline of China's export competitiveness, which in turn leads to the reduction of employment opportunities and income of ordinary people, which in turn leads to the decline of actual consumption power. The total demand for ordinary people to buy a house will decrease;

As can be seen from the data of bank loans this year, the increase in housing sales is due to the increase in bank loans. The insignificant cost of inventory decline is the result of the substantial increase of housing mortgage loans, not the improvement of people's spending power;

7. The rapid and sharp increase in housing has led to more people selling their real estate in China and overseas immigrants buying houses. It will inevitably lead to the decline of the total housing demand in China. In recent years, China's annual overseas housing demand of tens of billions of dollars is driven by high housing prices. It means that we use high housing prices to force many people to buy houses abroad;

8. Panic buying caused by rising house prices is only the result of overdrawing future consumption. If you increase your consumption now, you will reduce it in the future. For example, 6.5438 million houses were sold this year, and 6.5438 million houses will be sold next year. Can I really go to stock?

9. The wealth effect brought by soaring housing prices and the difficulty of entity management have forced many speculative houses to be entities. This speculative demand does increase demand in the short term, but in the long run, it is just another form of inventory. Only this inventory is in the hands of individuals, because once the house price falls, these speculators may sell the property and become an effective supply in the market. Panic investment and purchase will also be panic speculation and centralized selling in the future, becoming the main force of market decline. Therefore, it is only a form of inventory and is not included in government inventory statistics;

10, high housing prices have caused people to reduce consumption in other fields, which in turn has led to a relative decline in demand in other industries. A large number of migrant workers have to start to return, which will lead to a further decline in total housing demand;

For example, many people in small cities go to work in big cities and rent houses in big cities, but they have their own houses in small cities. Many rural people rent houses in cities and have houses in rural areas. Once the economy declines, they all return to their former hometowns, which will reduce the number of renters in the city. A large reduction in renting houses will actually lead to a reduction in housing demand. If I guess correctly, the rent of houses around Dongguan Industrial Zone will fall and the vacancy rate will increase.

The area under construction for sale is about 7.7 billion square meters, and at least 260 million people need to live, based on 30 square meters per capita. Considering the high vacancy rate, it can accommodate at least 300 million people. If China's economic downturn and the return of migrant workers are included, the rent will be lowered. China's housing surplus is only serious, even if you think about it, you are afraid!

Rising house prices will only stimulate the increase of new supply in the end, because rising house prices means the increase of profits in the upstream of housing supply, and the increase of profits will inevitably stimulate the increase of supply. This is basic common sense and the most basic economic law. At the same time, rising house prices will lead to a decrease in total demand in the long run, not an increase.

If it's very simple, why is there a public opinion in society that house prices are going up to inventory? The reason is that the profit-makers of rising house prices hope to create such a public opinion, which will make buyers panic and affect the central government's policies at the same time. Let high-level decision makers mistakenly think that rising house prices are conducive to destocking and relax the suppression of rising house prices.

Before and after the American subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, American house prices fell sharply. Even below the cost price, the amount of housing construction in the United States has dropped from 2.5 million units per year to 300,000-500,000 units per year for many years. Suppress supply through price decline, and finally let American house prices return to normal after destocking.

The United States is so powerful that everyone knows to respect economic laws. Because they understand that economic laws cannot be changed by manpower. Violation of economic laws will be punished sooner or later. How big the action is, how big the reaction is. The real frolicking is to master the rules, adapt to the rules, and finally use the rules.