When can Japan widen the gap with China?

I. Post-war economic recovery stage (1945- 1955)

The result of Japanese militarism's invasion of Asia and the Pacific War not only brought great disasters to Asian countries, but also made the domestic military economy develop abnormally and the national economy exhausted. In the later period of the war, the city of China 1 19, headed by Tokyo, was severely bombed and destroyed, and everywhere became ruins and scorched earth. Hiroshima and Nagasaki were especially destroyed by atomic bombs.

Compared with 1934- 1936, the national economy and production capacity of 1946 have declined as follows: the actual GNP is 62%, the actual per capita GNP is 55%, the actual per capita personal consumption is 57%, and the actual wage of manufacturing industry is 30%( 1947). Due to the defeat, foreign trade was almost completely interrupted. Compared with before the war, the export of 1947 dropped to 7%, and the import dropped to 14%.

Although the post-war economic recovery has experienced many difficulties and twists and turns, on the whole, it is undoubtedly a great success. 1946- 195 1 year, the economic growth rate is 9.9%, of which the industrial and mining production growth rate is 22.8%; 195 1- 1955 The economic growth rate was 8.7%, of which the growth rate of industrial and mining production was 1 1.3%.

Second, the stage of rapid economic growth (1955- 1972)

Japan's economy experienced three boom periods in the high-speed development stage, namely Shenwu boom, Iwate boom and Izu boom.

Shenwu boom (19541-1958 June): the boom lasted for 3 1 month, and the actual economic growth rate was 1956 7.5%,1958 June.

Iwate boom (1April 959 to1962+April 00): the boom lasted for 42 months, and the actual economic growth rates of 1959, 1960, 196 1 reached respectively.

Iraq's prosperity (1965165438+1October-1July 970): the prosperity lasted for 57 months, and the actual economic growth rate was 1970. Such a long period of sustained high-speed economic growth is rare not only in the history of Japan, but also in the history of developed capitalist countries. Due to the prosperity of Iraq, Japan's rapid economic growth has reached a brilliant peak.

Third, the stage of low economic growth (1973- 1990)

After the first oil shock and the first negative growth after the war, Japan's economy changed from high-speed growth to low-speed growth. 1976, 1977 and 1978 were 4.0%, 4.4% and 5.3% respectively, which were lower than the level of 5.7% during the economic crisis of 1965 compared with the period of rapid growth. Nevertheless, after 1978, the shadow of depression has been shaken off, the prosperity is indeed rising, and the income of enterprises has also increased. To this end, Japan's "White Paper on Economy" summarized this phenomenon and said: Although it is 4%-6% economic growth, there is a feeling of economic prosperity, which means that Japan's economy will enter a "new growth track" in the future. Compared with the growth rate of about 10% in the high-speed growth period, the economic growth rate of about 5% is still a little higher than that of other developed countries, so it is called medium-speed growth. Medium-speed growth continued until the end of 1980s. During this period, except for a few years, Japan's real economic growth rate remained basically at the level of 3%-5%, with little fluctuation, and it was still the fastest growing country compared with other developed countries, so this period was also called a period of steady growth.

There is a gentle boom at this stage, which is the culmination of Japan's economic development. From1June 1987 to1February 19991year, * * lasted for 5 1 month, which was the second longest large-scale boom after the war, second only to the 57-month boom in Iraq. During the Heiping prosperity period, Japan's economy continued to maintain the highest economic growth rate among the major developed capitalist countries.

On the basis of steady economic development, especially the rapid development of heavy chemical industry, Japan's international competitiveness has rapidly improved. Thus, since 1983, Japan has been the largest country in world trade, current account and capital export since it surpassed West Germany and Britain in capital export. 1987, the trade credit and current balance reached 96.4 billion dollars and 87 billion dollars respectively; 1986, 1987 and 1988 have exceeded130 billion dollars for three consecutive years, respectively,131500 million dollars,136.5 billion dollars and. In addition, starting from 1985, Japan replaced Britain as the world's largest overseas creditor, while the United States began to become the world's largest overseas creditor. As a result, Japan's position as the world's second economic power has not only been further consolidated, but has also begun to be called "the world's second super economic power". In this way, Japan's economy reached its post-war peak.

In this context, Japan has launched an all-round challenge to American hegemony under the three-legged pattern of the United States, Japan and Europe and the general trend of multi-polarization of the world economy. Thus, following the era of British hegemony and the era of American hegemony, the world will usher in the era of Japanese hegemony, and "2 1 century is the century of Japan", which became popular for a while.

The prosperous period of Heisei is also the development period of bubble economy. Although the development of bubble economy promoted the development and expansion of Heisei Prosperity through asset effect, it also gave birth to profound contradictions in Japanese economy, leaving serious sequelae. In the process of rapid development of virtual economy, the scale of Japanese assets has expanded rapidly. Take the national total assets as an example. Since 1975 began to make statistics, its annual growth rate has exceeded the growth rate of GNP. Especially in the late 1980s, its average annual growth rate was as high as 14.9%, almost three times the nominal GNP growth rate of 4.9%. As a result, by the end of 1987, Japan's total national assets had reached $36.9 trillion, surpassing the US's $35.8 trillion, and became the world's leading asset country for a time. By the end of 1989, Japan's total national assets had reached 687 1 trillion yen, equivalent to 48. 1 trillion dollars, which was about 17.2 times of the nominal GNP of that year.

During the bubble economy period, the Nikkei average share price of the primary market of Tokyo Stock Exchange (the average price of 225 industrial stocks counted by Japan Economic News Agency) soared, as shown in the following figure. It can be seen that before the bubble economy began, the Nikkei average stock price began to rise at 1985. From 1986, the stock price rose by 44. 1% from 12, thus opening the curtain of the bubble economy. 1989,65438+February, the average share price of Nikkei increased to an unprecedented 38 130 yen, which is about 3.23 times of the average of 1985, 1 18 15 yen. Of which1989 65438+reached 389 15 yen on February 29th. Judging from the average annual share price, 1989 is 34,059 yen, which is about 2.75 times that of 1985.

During the bubble economy, land prices soared, as shown in the following figure. It can be seen that the skyrocketing land price started from 1987 and continued to 199 1. In 1988, the land price increased the most, with a national average increase of 2 1.7%, among which the increase in three metropolitan areas was 43.8% and that in Tokyo was as high as 65.3%. It can be seen that the skyrocketing land price began in the three metropolitan areas, especially in Tokyo.

Although the increase of land price is the result of the increase of business income and land productivity in a large-scale boom, the average annual growth rate of business income (including sales income and non-business income) of manufacturing enterprises is only 5.9% because such a large price increase obviously exceeds the growth of business income and land productivity. Therefore, the reason for its skyrocketing can only be attributed to land speculation. In the process of land speculation, excessive real estate financing by banks has played a role in fueling the situation.

Fourth, the stage of long-term economic stagnation (199 1-)

On February 29th 1989, the Nikkei average share price of Tokyo Stock Exchange was as high as 389 15 yen, but on October 29th 1990, 15438+0 yen fell below 20,000 yen. As a result, the total current price of the Tokyo stock market disappeared by 270 trillion yen like a bubble. This day is called "Black Monday" and it is also the starting point of the collapse of the bubble economy.

The land price of 199 1 year also turned down, falling by 1.8%. Later, due to the increase of large-scale bankruptcies, especially1April 28, 1992, Toyo Credit Vault closed down due to the bankruptcy of Keizo (a real estate company), which broke the myth that "banks will not go bankrupt" for the first time and Japan's bubble economy collapsed.

After the collapse of the bubble economy, with the bankruptcy of real estate companies and non-bank financial institutions increasing, the bad debts of banks have also increased greatly. By the end of March 1992, the total amount of non-performing debts of city banks, long-term credit banks and trust banks (debts delayed for more than six months in a row) had reached about 8 trillion yen, of which loans without any guarantee were 25.61900 million yen. At the end of September of that year, after only half a year, the above-mentioned non-performing loans and loans increased to 12 trillion yen and 4 trillion yen respectively. Since then, bad debts have been on the rise.

During this period, the Japanese economy experienced three major surpluses, namely, equipment surplus, real estate surplus and personnel surplus. 199 1 year manufacturing operating rate decreased 1.5%, 1992 decreased by 7.7%. At the end of 1992, the operating rate of manufacturing industry fell to the lowest level since 1975. A large number of apartments, especially luxury villas, cannot be sold. In addition, the vacancy rate of office buildings is rising, the utilization rate of leisure facilities is declining, and there is a serious surplus of real estate. During the bubble economy period, due to the expansion of business scale and professional field, the employment scale of enterprises has also expanded. Therefore, after the collapse of the bubble economy, due to the shrinkage of business scale and career fields, enterprises have experienced a surplus of personnel.

After the collapse of the bubble economy, due to the rapid depreciation of land assets and stock assets, the investment in equipment of enterprises and the consumption expenditure of residents have undergone diametrically opposite changes compared with the bubble economy period. First of all, from the enterprise's situation, due to the failure of the use of "money-making technique", the loss of assets sold by enterprises has increased. 1990, only the stock assets depreciated 104 trillion yen, which is about 2.7 times of the current regular profit of 38. 1 trillion yen. In this case, enterprises can not only make up for the loss of their own business by "making money", but also make their operating income tend to deteriorate. In the case of business difficulties, it is more and more difficult to issue corporate bonds and stocks because of the decline in the borrowing capacity of asset-backed enterprises and the improvement of borrowing conditions. Not only is the equipment investment of enterprises greatly reduced, but also bankruptcy is greatly increased. Secondly, from the perspective of household and personal consumption, the assets that suddenly expanded during the bubble economy period quickly disappeared. 1990, the stock assets of families and individuals decreased from 237 trillion yen to 163 trillion yen, a sudden decrease of 74 trillion yen, equivalent to 1/4 of that of families and disposable personal income. Since then, houses and land owned by families and individuals have also depreciated sharply. Due to the change of family and individual's concept from rich to poor, their consumption concept has also changed greatly, from extravagance and waste in the past to the pursuit of high-end luxury consumption to careful calculation. As a result, the consumption expenditure of families and individuals has decreased.

Due to the impact of the bubble economy collapse and its sequelae, the Japanese economy has been in a state of bubble economy collapse and depression since March 1990. The collapse and depression of the bubble economy lasted until 1993, and * * * lasted for 32 months, which exceeded the average of 10 economic depression so far 14 months, and was second only to the 36 months of 1980-1983 economic depression.

1993 the bubble economy collapsed in June, 5438+00. After the depression hit the bottom, the recovery was very weak. In May 1997, the boom rose for 43 months. From the perspective of duration, this upsurge is the third longest after the war, second only to the Iraqi upsurge and the peace upsurge. However, although the craze is on the rise, people do not feel prosperous. In three years and seven months, the total real GDP only increased by a little more than 8%, of which 1994 only increased by 0.6%. Compared with the real GDP growth of 67.8% during the Iraqi boom, 24.5% during the Heisei boom and 23.6% during the SHEN WOO boom, this is the worst post-war boom.

1April 1997, Japan's economy entered the recession stage again. 1997, the actual economic growth rate was only 1.6%, 1998 decreased by 2.0%, 1999 decreased by 0. 1%, showing negative growth for two consecutive years for the first time. Moreover, the nominal economic growth rate of 1998 also decreased for the first time, with a decrease rate of 2.0%, and the nominal economic growth rate of 1999 decreased again 1.4%.

Before 1980s, Japan was a top student in the world economy. However, since the 1990s, Japan's economy has lost its former glory. From 1992 to 2000, the average annual real economic growth rate in Japan was only1.0%; Other related indicators are that the average annual growth of household and individual consumption is 1.4%, and the investment in personal housing and enterprise equipment is -3. 1% and -0.2% respectively, both of which are negative growth. It can be seen that during the period of 10, the production capacity of Japanese enterprises and the living standards of Japanese people have basically not improved, and the barely achieved economic growth mainly depends on the expansion of public investment and exports.

In contrast, after getting rid of the economic crisis in the early 1990s, the prosperity of the United States has been steadily and strongly expanding since March 199 1. By September 2000, the expansion of prosperity had been going on for 1 15 months, which was an unprecedented large-scale prosperity. From 65438 to 0992-2000, the average annual economic growth rate was 3.2%, which was always at the highest level in developed countries except for a few years. In addition, the economic development of Western Europe and Canada is obviously better than that of Japan. In this way, Japan has become an "inferior student" in the economy of developed countries. For the Japanese economy, the 1990s can be said to be a lost year 10.

Around 2000, influenced by the American IT boom, Japan experienced a short IT boom, with a century economic growth rate of 2.9%. However, after the IT bubble of 200 1 USA burst, the Japanese economy fell into crisis again, and the real economic growth rate of 200 1 was 0.2%. Japan's economy began to recover in early 2002, when the real growth rate returned to 0.3%. In 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007, they increased by 65,438+0.4%, 2.7%, 65,438+0.9%, 2.0% and 2.4% respectively. This boom started in February 2002 and lasted for 65 months in 2007, exceeding the 42 months of Iwate boom, the 5 1 month of Heisei boom and the 57 months of Izu boom, making it the longest boom since the war. The actual growth rate of this boom expansion is 1.5% per year, which is not high, but obviously higher than the average annual growth rate of 1% in the 1990s.

This strong recovery of Japanese economy was achieved under the favorable international environment of world economy, East Asian economy and especially China's economic growth. Therefore, Japan has achieved an increase in exports, thus promoting economic recovery. In 2002, 2003 and 2004, Japanese exports increased by 8.5%, 6.3% and 10. 1% respectively. Among them, exports to China increased by 34.3%, 33.3% and 20.5% respectively; In 2005, Japan's exports increased by 7.3%, of which exports to China increased by 10.6%.

"China's Special Needs": Due to the rapid increase in exports to China, the operating rate of Japanese enterprises has generally increased, and in 2005, steel even fell short of demand. Orders for machinery and equipment are also very strong, exceeding 7 trillion yen in the fourth quarter of 2005, the highest level since the third quarter1997; Among them, 65438+February was 2 trillion 593 billion yen, the highest level since May 1987. Shipbuilding and shipping are also full of orders, showing a prosperous scene.

However, in 2008, affected by the international financial crisis, the nominal growth rate and the real growth rate of Japan's economy showed double negative growth again, with the nominal economic growth rate decreasing by 1.6% and the real economic growth rate decreasing by 0.6%. The crisis lasted until 2009. In the first quarter, Japan's real economic growth rate dropped by 9.7%, while its nominal economic growth rate dropped by 8.6%, both the biggest drops in postwar history.