Dongfeng Yulong recruitment

At any time, self-confidence is the most critical. We can control the epidemic in a short time, so we should also be confident to create an economic miracle in 2020.

On April 17, the State Council held a press conference to introduce the national economy in the first quarter of 2020.

In the first quarter, the GDP was 20,650.4 billion yuan, down 6.8% year-on-year at comparable prices.

By industry, the added value of the primary industry was 10 186 billion yuan, down by 3.2%; The added value of the secondary industry was 7,363.8 billion yuan, down 9.6%; The added value of tertiary industry was122.68 billion yuan, down by 5.2%.

Automobile manufacturing belongs to the secondary industry, so it is impossible to be immune to it. Production and sales declined significantly in the first quarter. According to the data of the Federation of Passenger Cars, from June 5438 to March, the cumulative output of narrow passenger cars nationwide was 2.584 million, down 49.2% year-on-year, and the cumulative comprehensive sales volume was 30 1.4 million, down 40.8% year-on-year.

The sudden epidemic has had a great impact on the domestic economy. In the first quarter, the main economic indicators dropped significantly, but in March, the main economic indicators rebounded and the decline narrowed, which is a positive side.

★ About cars, several predictions

The direct impact of the epidemic is mainly in two aspects: 1, people can't walk around at will, and industries that need to move are affected first, such as aviation and passenger transport; 2. People avoid direct contact, and industries that provide face-to-face services are bound to be suppressed, such as catering and beauty industry.

For the automobile industry, the passenger flow in the exhibition hall of 4S shop is reduced, and the sales volume is naturally poor. After all, at present, almost all car sales need to be seen and delivered in 4S stores. This traditional and huge distribution system still plays a decisive role. The so-called online car purchase is just a beautiful vision.

Judging from the comprehensive sales trend chart of 20 15-2020 published by the Federation, the automobile sales in the first quarter of this year fell to the lowest level in five years. The epidemic was the most serious in February, and sales were almost frozen. It resumed in March and sales increased.

In fact, at the beginning of the year, under the stable internal and external environment, the Federation predicted that the automobile sales in China should increase by 1% year-on-year in 2020. However, the "black swan" epidemic caused the Federation to constantly revise its situation judgment. At the beginning of March, it was considered that the annual sales volume decreased by 8% year-on-year, and it was adjusted to decrease by 65,438+00% year-on-year in early April.

Internationally, McKinsey predicts that global car sales will drop by 29% in 2020 due to the epidemic. They believe that in 2020, China's automobile sales will drop by 15% year-on-year, and the decline in the United States and Europe will be 18%-36%, which is difficult to recover in the short term.

Relatively speaking, the domestic automobile market is better than the international automobile market.

China auto market officially entered the adjustment period, and the high growth bonus disappeared. Referring to the American automobile market, the change of its sales volume is closely related to the economic situation, which is basically positively related. Especially in the face of several major economic crises, American automobile sales have entered a trough, and then with the economic recovery, sales have gradually increased.

The International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economy will decline by 3% this year, while China will grow by 1.2%. China is one of the few countries in the world that is expected to grow. Therefore, the automobile market is also expected to follow the rapid recovery in the second half of the year.

In 20021year, the International Monetary Fund predicted that China's economic growth rate would be 9.2%, indicating that it was optimistic about the economic release next year. Similarly, the expectation of the automobile market next year can be more optimistic. We have encountered a relatively long adjustment period this year. If you survive and make positive adjustments, you may find more opportunities next year.

★ First quarter, sales ranking

We listed the top 20 car companies in the first quarter, and mainstream car companies were on the list. If they are not on the list, it is really dangerous and the possibility of being eliminated increases.

Without exception, the sales volume of all car companies showed a "double-digit" decline year-on-year.

It is meaningless to be miserable, but the sales ranking does reflect some problems.

It is observed that there are two main trends:

1, Matthew effect is more and more obvious, the stronger the strong, the weaker the weak. Simply calculate, in the first quarter of 2020, the sum of the sales of the top 10 car companies accounted for 68. 1% of the total sales of the top 20 car companies, and the concentration continued to increase compared with 66.5% in the first quarter of 20 19.

In times of economic depression, consumers may keep their pockets tight, even if they spend money, they may be very cautious. When buying goods such as cars, consumers will be more inclined to brands with large market share. Because this is the safest choice, at least it has a large market share and will not fall first.

2. Luxury brands continue to rise, and consumption stratification is more obvious. In this list, Beijing Benz ranks 10, BMW Brilliance ranks 14, and FAW-Volkswagen includes Audi brand, firmly sticking to the list of 1.

There are many reasons. The income of the target consumers of luxury brands is less affected, so their purchasing power is still relatively strong. In addition, in fact, every family is declining, but other brands are declining even more, so it seems that luxury brands are less affected by marketing.

No matter how much it drops, at least the car companies in the list still have sales, so hope is here.

There are still three months when the sales volume is less than 1000 units, or it is directly zero. For example, there are only 672 units of Dongfeng Renault (the share reform was announced a few days ago), 24 units of Lifan Motor, 65,438 units of Express Motor, 32 units of Dongfeng Yulong, Jianghuai Volkswagen and Zhi Dou Electric, and the crisis may be more serious.

★ Matthew effect, trend evolution

Since the Matthew effect in the auto market is getting worse, what impact will it bring?

1, China's market position may continue to consolidate.

For many years, China has been the largest new car market in the world. In contrast, the epidemic situation in China is under control more quickly and the economy is recovering. Therefore, the expectation of the auto market is more optimistic than overseas.

At present, the wave of work stoppage is happening overseas. For some foreign brands, this year may pay more attention to the performance of the China market. Volkswagen Group has previously said that only China has income in the global market due to the epidemic.

Foreign brands that have been deeply involved in localization in China market several years ago may have a greater chance to win more market share this year. However, foreign brands that are gradually eliminated are also difficult to save. As for the China brand, focusing on the domestic market may be the main task this year.

2, cash flow test, the knockout accelerated.

Sales decline, the market runs slowly, and cash flow becomes the key.

Some marginalized car companies may fall. In the game, there may be some opportunities for mergers and acquisitions, which may be between China capital and foreign capital, or between China capital and China capital. "Dongfeng Motor acquires all shares of Dongfeng Renault" is a typical case.

3. Talent migration and reshuffle

Pay cuts and layoffs have already taken place in this industry. If the cash flow of enterprises continues to be tight, this situation will only get worse.

We can't simply judge the surplus of talents in the automobile industry, but in this major adjustment of the industry, employees will also migrate and shuffle.

The talents in traditional modules tend to be saturated, mainly focusing on machinery and power, which has been glimpsed from the recruitment trend last year; Talents in emerging cross-border fields such as big data, car networking and autonomous driving are actually in short supply. It is difficult to keep up with the pace only by relying on the evolution of talents in the industry. It needs to be tapped from the IT industry, but the automobile industry may not get the expected high salary.

OEMs hope to master certain core competitiveness in the future, but talents need to be slowly reserved. One possibility is that these emerging core technologies are ultimately in the hands of suppliers, and the role of OEMs is still to accept services, but profits and initiative may be controlled by suppliers.

4. New opportunities for new energy and intelligence.

The troika that drives GDP is investment, consumption and export respectively, and this year it may depend on consumption.

The policy is already in hand to promote automobile consumption, and new energy will still be the most direct beneficiary. For example, the new energy tax exemption and subsidy policy will be extended for two years.

This is a signal that the state will still support new energy sources and local policies will respond soon.

New energy and intelligence require research and development costs and high expenditures. In the tight cash flow environment, the R&D investment of car companies will also be stretched, and the promotion of new energy and intelligent technology may be delayed.

With the policy escort, it is definitely good news for new energy. Moreover, the new energy market is small and it is easier to make achievements. There is no small opportunity to perform against the market this year.

★ Write at the end

As mentioned in the introduction, confidence is the key. We sacrifice some short-term benefits for long-term benefits. With the initial control of the epidemic, the economy will slowly recover and the automobile market will be full of vitality.

We are still looking for the warm sun at the end of the winter, keeping hope.

The author of this article is the Kicking Car Gang? Cao An

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.