Why can't people stay in the northeast?

Recently, the accelerated population decline in Northeast China has continued to be the focus of public opinion. Yesterday, China Youth Daily reported that restaurants around many factories in Northeast China kept closing, and obstetric nurses in hospitals became more and more idle. The reason for this phenomenon is the ultra-low birth rate in the three northeastern provinces and the increasing number of young people leaving. As the three northeastern provinces are the old industrial bases in China, with high level of urbanization and good implementation of family planning, the birth rate has been low in recent years. In this generation, young people are influenced by ideas and economic factors. Even if they are encouraged to have children, many people are reluctant to have more children. More shocking than the ultra-low birth rate is the outflow of young people. According to the data of the sixth national census in 20 10, the average annual net outflow of population in the three northeastern provinces was 6.5438+0.8 million. The proportion of the elderly population in the three northeastern provinces is higher than the national average, and the proportion of children and young adults is lower than the national average. 1From the late 9th century to the 1980s, Northeast China was mostly a net inflow area, and its rich population resources made Northeast China the most developed region in Asia and the "cradle of China industry" after 1949. Now, however, with the loss of population, the northeast economy has also sounded the alarm. Why can't people stay in this once glorious area of Northeast China? From 100, the large-scale migration of population from net inflow to net outflow in Northeast China can be traced back to 1860. Before that, Northeast China was regarded as the land of Longxing for 200 years in Qing Dynasty, which restricted the migration of Han people. However, with the increase of the country's population, wars and natural disasters, a large number of refugees have successively broken the ban on "going to the East". Internationally, Russia is also eyeing the sparsely populated Northeast. 1860, the Qing government gradually lifted the "ban" on Northeast China, and the population of Northeast China soared from 187 1 year to 19654. During the Republic of China, due to the constant wars and disasters in the North China Plain, the second climax of "de-orientalization" was formed in the 1920s. From 1927 to 1928, more than one million immigrants entered the northeast. From 1870 to 1940, the population of China only increased by 45%, while the population of Northeast China increased by 1 123%. At that time, Northeast China was the region with the fastest population growth in the world, and the comprehensive quality of immigrants was good (high proportion of young people, good physical fitness and strong pioneering spirit). Abundant population resources made Northeast China the most developed area in China at that time. The urbanization level in Northeast China reached 23.8% in 1942, while the national urbanization level reached 23.7% in 1986. 1945, the northeast even surpassed Japan to become the largest economy in Asia, and its GDP was second only to developed countries such as the United States, the Soviet Union, Britain and Germany. From 1949 to before the reform and opening up, Northeast China, as a key economic construction area and the most developed industrial area, was still an immigrant area, although the population migration fluctuated. After the reform and opening up, the situation has changed. Due to the end of the planned economic system, state-owned enterprises generally have difficulties in operating, and there is a surplus of labor in Northeast China. More and more people began to go out to look for employment opportunities. This trend has reached its peak in recent years. According to the data of the sixth national census, the annual net outflow of population in the three northeastern provinces is about 2 million. Among the three northeastern provinces, Heilongjiang and Jilin are net outflows. Although Liaoning still has a net inflow of about 200,000 per year, it is far less than that of Beijing, and the inflow population mostly comes from Heilongjiang and Jilin. In the fifth national census in 2000, there was a net inflow of 360,000 people in Northeast China. Who left the northeast? Who are the 6.5438+0.8 million people who flow out of Northeast China every year? In 20 10, the proportion of the population aged 30-49 /0-29 in China was 1.39, and that in Northeast China was 2.09, the highest in China. It means that in 2030, the proportion of people aged 50-69 /20-49 in Northeast China will be the highest, and the aging will be very serious. Where have all the young people in the Northeast gone? As a Liaoning native, I chose a university in Wuhan, 2 1 1, when I was admitted to a university. Most of my high school classmates are in places where universities are concentrated, such as Beijing, Shanghai and Xi 'an. One fifth of them choose to go abroad. Now I graduated, some stayed abroad, some stayed in Beijing, some girls went back, and I did. It is common to be unwilling to go back to the northeast after being admitted to a foreign university. Those who have passed the exam in the northeast are unwilling to return, and those who went to college in the northeast can't stay. In May this year, a national statistics of college graduates released by the Standard Ranking (China) Research Institute showed that 40% of the students from two "high-paying universities" in Liaoning went to Beishangguang, among which 36% of the graduates from Dalian University of Technology went to first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou for employment, while 38% of the graduates from Dalian Maritime University went abroad. Young people in Northeast China who didn't go to college didn't want to stay, but chose to go out to work. In Sanya, Hainan, in addition to the well-known "old migratory birds", almost every business has a figure from the northeast, opening restaurants, hotels, taxis, buses, and selling houses ... This number reaches hundreds of thousands. In first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, there are also a large number of Northeasters in some industries with low employment thresholds, such as real estate agents, driving black cars and small vendors. Take Beijing as an example, the most nervous thing is the train ticket to the northeast every holiday. According to the data of the sixth national census, the main destination of the net outflow population in Northeast China is Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. Northeast China cannot provide more jobs and a better life for young people. Northeast China, as a model and model of industrialization under planned economy in China, has been greatly unsuitable in the process of transition from planned economy to market economy. 1At the end of 1990s, the state-owned enterprises in Northeast China were restructured, and about a quarter of the 30 million laid-off workers in China were in Northeast China. At the beginning of 2000, the state-owned enterprises in Northeast China accounted for more than two-thirds of the total economic output, but now it has dropped to about 50%, but it is still higher than the national average of 30%. These state-owned enterprises cannot provide more jobs. At the same time, the economic structure in Northeast China has deteriorated, and it is more dependent on investment and manufacturing. In 20 13 years, investment accounted for 65% of GDP in Northeast China, almost twice as much as ten years ago, and the national average was 50%. Although investment can bring economic data growth, it has little impact on the lives of ordinary people. Private enterprises that can provide the most jobs are struggling in Northeast China. Caijing magazine once reported that Wang Min, former secretary of Liaoning Provincial Party Committee, found that some departments and officials in this big industrial province often "beat the dog behind closed doors" after attracting investment-fined private enterprises for various reasons. Caijing magazine quoted several development zone officials as saying that many small and medium-sized enterprises in the south who supported Liaoning state-owned enterprises either withdrew their capital or moved to other places. Some supporting enterprises have moved to Tianjin or Hebei and still have business dealings with Liaoning state-owned enterprises, preferring to pay more freight and no longer pay "institutional costs". The international economic situation is also unfavorable to Northeast China. The United States, Europe and Japan account for more than 60% of global trade for a long time, which provides opportunities for the development of China's eastern coast. However, Japan and South Korea, which are close to the northeast, are both declining in the proportion of China's foreign trade. Japan is particularly affected by Sino-Japanese relations. In the first three quarters of 20 14, Japanese investment in Liaoning decreased by 33.5% year-on-year. South Korea's investment is only one-third of Japan's, and the decline is even greater. There are no more jobs, resulting in a surplus of labor in Northeast China. In 20 10, the labor force aged 20-59 in Northeast China accounted for 68.3% of the total population, only lower than Beijing (73.4%), Shanghai (7 1.4%) and Tianjin (7 1.0%), and higher than the whole country (62.6%). Although Beijing and Shanghai have the same problems, because of industrial advantages, employment can be solved through domestic and international markets, but the northeast industry is still at a disadvantage, and surplus labor can only drive young people out. The more immediate problem is "money". In 20 14, the per capita disposable income of residents was higher than the national average only in Liaoning province, but lower in Heilongjiang province and Jilin province. Compared with more developed regions, the gap is even greater. In 20 12, the average social wage in Heilongjiang province was 2843 yuan, and that in Guangdong province reached 53 13 yuan. Forced by reality, "the most greedy animal" had to choose to leave the northeast. In addition to economic factors, there are many social factors that prompt young people to leave Northeast China actively or passively. Chen Xingjie, a researcher at the Institute of Humanities and Economics, once wrote: "1When state-owned enterprises declined in the 1990s, many people in Northeast China turned to small commodities and border trade, and they were quite angry. Now such news is basically invisible. 20 12 went to Panjin, Liaoning and stayed in that city for a few days. Liaohe oilfield has considerable assets everywhere, and there are almost no decent private enterprises. In addition, a major feature of state-owned cities is that follett is good and there are many pharmacies. There is no reason. The system of almost universal medical insurance has made the atmosphere of "buying medicine, swiping cards and cashing out" very strong, and even became a characteristic industry. "Many Northeasters, especially the elderly Northeasters, are still stuck in the thinking of' entering a large state-owned enterprise and making an iron rice bowl'. Some people choose the Northeast people as the "most greedy animals" in the country. In April this year, some media reported that employees of Daqing Oilfield took to the streets to protest against the reform of the oilfield recruitment system, because after the reform, many oilfield children could no longer enjoy the package distribution. The report quoted these parents as saying: "In the future, they will know how difficult it is to have a stable job. "In many places in the northeast, the core of finding a job is not ability, but relationship. Northeasters are deeply influenced by the system, pay attention to face, and create the most humanized society in China. Take Daqing Oilfield as an example. If the family is not from the municipal government or the oil field, the only way to wait for young people is unemployment, and many young people have to choose to go out to work. It seems difficult to start a business in the first-tier cities in Northeast China. In the absence of its own commercial civilization, even private enterprises that attract investment can "close the door" at every turn, and small and micro enterprises without background simply cannot bear the cost of corruption. And with the loss of population, the business environment in Northeast China is even less optimistic. Young people who are capable, ambitious and unable to accept this lifestyle are naturally willing to choose to work hard in areas with developed market economies such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong. However, there are advantages for people from the Northeast to move out. Northeast China is originally an immigrant society, and the descendants of immigrants have the gene of being aggressive, so it is easy to be aggressive when they hear that the outside world is wonderful and there are more opportunities. What will the loss of young people bring to Northeast China? The 20-64-year-old labor force is the engine to promote economic growth. Both Japan and Europe experienced economic crisis on the eve of the turning point of the population aged 20-64. Northeast China reached an inflection point at 20 13, and the economy began to slow down. In 20 10, children aged 0- 14 in China accounted for 16.6% of the total population, while in the three northeastern provinces, the proportion was only110.8%, which means that the reserve labor resources in Northeast China are seriously insufficient, and the labor force will decline much faster in the future. According to the precedent of Japan and Germany, after the negative growth of labor force, the unemployment rate (especially the youth unemployment rate) will be higher and the labor participation rate will be lower due to economic slowdown and structural imbalance. Therefore, on the one hand, there is a serious shortage of labor in Northeast China, on the other hand, the unemployment rate will rise and the labor participation rate will also decline (hidden unemployment). " "Labor shortage" and "employment difficulty" will coexist for a long time, and the labor force will continue to flow out. In fact, the coexistence of "labor shortage" and "employment difficulty" has already appeared in Northeast China. On the one hand, as mentioned above, there is an overall surplus of labor in Northeast China; On the other hand, a survey data released by Liaoning Employment and Talent Service Bureau in July last year showed that the total number of senior talents was low and the demand gap was large. 20 10 the population structure in northeast China is spindle-shaped, with less at both ends and more in the middle. However, with the ultra-low fertility rate and the outflow of young people, the spindle-shaped structure will soon become an inverted triangle, which will not only accelerate the aging of Northeast China, but also make Northeast China lose excellent labor and purchasing power consumers.