Fund managers of several private equity companies: A-share opportunities in the fourth quarter

During the National Day holiday, China Fund Newspaper invited directors, general managers or investment directors of a number of private equity companies to analyze and summarize the stock market in the first three quarters and look forward to the investment opportunities of A shares in the fourth quarter for investors' reference only.

Lei Fang, Deputy General Manager of Xingshi Investment:

The pessimistic expectation of the stock market was released, and A shares entered the value range.

Since the beginning of this year, the domestic stock market as a whole can be divided into three stages: "down-repair-down again", and market sentiment has also fluctuated greatly. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting on interest rates in 2022 show the urgency of raising interest rates and shrinking the table. The market interest rate hike is expected to enter a fast-rising channel, and market risk appetite is suppressed. The valuation of domestic stock market has shrunk rapidly from 65438 to this year10-February. In March, local epidemics in China repeatedly began to affect market economy expectations, overlapping austerity expectations continued to accelerate, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine suppressed market risk appetite. From March to April, the domestic stock market suffered double losses in profit and valuation. At the end of April, the central high-level officials released a positive signal, the local domestic epidemic subsided, the superimposed overseas geopolitical risks and interest rate hike expectations were fully priced in stages, and the domestic stock market was actively repaired in May-June. After the rapid recovery after the epidemic eased, the kinetic energy of domestic economic recovery slowed down in July. At the end of July, the supply of real estate loans in some areas was cut off, and the power supply in the southern region was tight in August. The market's expectations for the domestic economy in the second half of the year gradually turned pessimistic, and the performance of A shares fluctuated as a whole. In September, the Federal Reserve continued its hawkish remarks since the middle and late August, and the optimistic expectations of the market for the end of interest rate hikes and the duration of high interest rates were revised, and the stock market performance was weak.

Judging from the market performance in the first three quarters of this year, the two factors that have the greatest impact on the stock market are the recovery of the domestic economy and the tightening pace of the Federal Reserve, and the subsequent risk factors may be mainly overseas.

Domestically, the sustained economic recovery should be better than the recent pessimistic expectations of the market. Although the economic recovery has not been strong enough since July and the real estate turmoil has aggravated the deterioration of economic expectations, the current situation is obviously better than that in April this year. At the same time, the policy tone is biased towards stable growth in the short to medium term. Even if the economic recovery is slightly turbulent, the general direction of domestic economic recovery is certain. As for the current real estate turmoil that the market is worried about, recent data show that the real estate sales side has begun to pick up. Although the sustainability of the recovery remains to be seen, we believe that the drag of real estate on the economy is still under control in the case of policy bottoming risk. A number of data in September showed that domestic infrastructure investment was accelerating due to the fading of high temperature weather, the traditional peak season and the implementation of policy-oriented development financial instruments, which also hedged the downward trend of real estate investment.

Overseas, tight monetary policy, increased risk of recession and energy shortage may all become risk points that affect the capital market. First of all, the hawkish Fed, the upward interest rate of US debt, the strong US dollar index and the fluctuation of overseas stock markets will all suppress domestic risk appetite. Second, the duration of maintaining high interest rates may exceed market expectations, and the recession pressure brought by high interest rates is increasing. If the US economy rapidly enters a substantial recession, it may have a greater impact on China's exports, and the domestic economy may be expected to repair slowly. Third, although the energy shortage in Europe has eased since September, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been protracted, and Europe has imposed strong energy sanctions on Russia, making short-term energy substitution difficult. After the arrival of winter, Europe's energy probability is still tense, and the global economic expectation may be lowered again.

In the short term, there is limited room for the domestic economy to continue to explore, and there is not much room for valuation compression. We believe that the domestic stock market will maintain the characteristics of overall shock and stock game. As of September 26th, the P/E ratio of CSI A is 15. 1 times, which is the lower level of 27% quantile since 2007. National Certificate A refers to ERP 3.92%, which is rapidly approaching the level of April this year. It also shows that the medium and long-term investment value of A shares is increasing.

At present, the stock market has already included pessimistic expectations, A shares have entered the value range as a whole, and the market also contains many medium and long-term investment opportunities, especially the sectors with reasonably low valuation. In the long run, although the domestic economic data fluctuated greatly under the influence of the epidemic in recent years, China's economy still has a comparative advantage in the world. During the period of 20 10-202 1, the domestic nominal GDP grew at an average annual rate of 9.7%, and Wonderland A grew at an average annual rate of 7.3%. The growth of the stock market is consistent with economic growth, and the long-term positive trend of the domestic economy will also be the long-term trend of the stock market. Second, the income of equity assets essentially comes from the profitability of listed companies, and the excess income of investment equity assets comes from the performance growth of listed companies. Taking the return on net assets as the measurement standard, the profitability of medium and long-term listed companies has not decreased significantly, and high-quality companies still have high investment value. Third, in the long run, there is no difference between plates. There are many high-quality companies with huge growth space and high degree of realization in the growth sector. Although the fluctuation of short-term valuation will bring back the stock price, the growth of these companies can still bring long-term benefits; The elasticity of the value sector may be weaker than that of the growth sector, but the relative stability and certainty of profits are also the source of long-term income, which is more favored by investors in a specific macro environment. No matter what kind of investment style, as long as we insist on screening high-quality companies and keep the style unchanged, we can get relatively stable long-term investment income with great probability.

Lei Fang, Deputy General Manager of Xingshi Investment

Tsinghua University, Master of Biology. 12 years of investment and research experience, joined xingshi investment on 20 10, and served as researcher, fund manager, co-director and assistant general manager of xingshi investment department. He is currently the deputy general manager, senior fund manager and chief strategic investment officer of Xingshi Investment.

Zhao, partner and chief strategist of Qinghequan:

The policy gradually became clear and the performance was gradually determined.

Looking at the market position in a triangular way, the support is clear.

Judging from the valuation quantile, the current market valuation quantile is less than 40%, and both the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and the Growth Enterprise Market Index are around 30%. Judging from the yield difference between stocks and bonds, at present, the static PE of the whole market is 16.7x, the risk-free yield is 2.68%, and ERP is 3.3%, which is at a historical high. In extreme cases, it is only about 10% away from the historical big bottom space. Judging from the market sentiment index, the current market sentiment is very depressed, and the latest 38% is close to the historical supercooling range, which means that the market's downward momentum is very limited. On the whole, the current low market level is an optimistic factor of * * *.

Three factors to see the market driving force

The direction is clear, but the rhythm remains to be seen.

The policy focus is expected to return to steady growth. There are many similarities between the present macro-environment and 20 12Q4. On the one hand, policy expectations continue to increase, and the efficiency of transmission to the real economy will also be significantly improved. On the other hand, we have observed that the medium and long-term loans of enterprises have bottomed out, and subsequent residents are expected to start repairing.

As the epidemic recedes, the economy itself has room for repair. This year's epidemic has a great impact on the whole economy and key industries. Judging from the economic aggregate, the recovery of consumption has been relatively weak, with a compound growth rate of less than 3% in three years. There is a lot of space from the central 8% before the epidemic. From the perspective of listed industries, the income of consumer services and travel-related industries has generally not recovered to the pre-epidemic level. With the decline of epidemic situation and the optimization of epidemic prevention policy, the economy itself needs some repair space. From the perspective of industry structure, the profitability of many industries has also improved.

Overseas austerity is expected to slow down. Recently, the expectation of overseas austerity has warmed up again. On the one hand, Fed officials have released the signal of being partial to the eagle and tried their best to curb inflation. On the other hand, the American economy is still in recession, employment is very strong, bank credit growth is very strong, and consumption and services are also good. Although the macro rhythm overseas in the future is still uncertain, two things are certain: First, under the conditions of high interest rates and accumulated monetary tightening, the American economy will gradually slow down or even enter recession, and inflation will tend to fall back. Second, when the US economy begins to decline and inflation continues to fall, the Fed will begin to weigh policy objectives and economic growth, which means that the Fed's interest rate hike path will slow down.

Market style change

Profit trend and cost performance

From 202 1, values and growth styles frequently rotate. The reasons behind it: First, the global inflation and interest rate center have risen, and the macro-environmental fluctuations have intensified. Growth stocks are hard to stand out. Second, under the global green transformation and supply chain reconstruction, value and cycle have played a more important role than in the past. Third, the dislocation of economic and monetary policies at home and abroad has a great influence on the pulling back and forth of style. Therefore, the medium-term market style is regional equilibrium, and dynamic equilibrium will occur if the differentiation is too large. When it comes to investment, we shouldn't make a big bet on style rotation.

Recently, the value has once again outperformed the growth, mainly reflected in the defensive characteristics. Since the resumption of trading on 202 1, the value has outperformed three times, from February to March in 202 1, from August to September in 202 1 and from June to April in 20021. * * * The same characteristics are: First, the market as a whole is in a period of adjustment, and the market seeks to avoid risks; Second, the characteristics of capital trading are mainly: simply doing high throwing and low sucking, and doing hot industries and cutting unpopular industries; Third, the average duration is short. Therefore, behind this rotation, it reflects more the behavior of market defense than the change of the main line of the medium-term market.

Medium-term growth and value will still be characterized by overall balance and frequent rotation. The first part explains the reasons for the medium-term equilibrium model. At present, these macro conditions are difficult to reverse. In terms of short-term rotation, the market pays attention to three relative changes: the trend of emerging industries is expected to the traditional economy, the loose trading in stages is tense to the staged trading, and the trading is overheated and too cold.

To sum up, it is expected that the policy will gradually become clear, the epidemic will subside and the direction of economic recovery will slow down. Although these three focuses are still disturbed, the direction is still relatively clear. Therefore, we believe that the confirmation and deduction of these three focuses in the fourth quarter have a more critical impact on the market and need to be focused on and tracked. In terms of market style, the recent value has once again outperformed the growth. Behind this rotation, it is more about the behavior of market defense than the change of the main line of the market in the medium term. We will still focus on industry trends, profitability and price-performance ratio (PEG) of individual stocks for medium-term layout; In the direction of combination and configuration, we will also balance the layout in stages, instead of betting on short-term style rotation.

Zhao Qing Partner/Chief Strategist

Master of Finance, University of New South Wales, Australia, 1 1 year working experience.

Founding member of Qinghequan Capital, deeply involved in the construction of investment and research system. At present, he is the chief strategist and a member of the investment decision-making committee, responsible for top-down macro-strategy research and in-depth research on market direction, style, industry configuration, finance and other industries.

Zhao, head of quantitative research of Jude Quantou:

Facing the change, grasp the new machine.

Under the influence of multiple negative factors, the performance of China's capital market has been rather bleak since 2022. Several broad-based indexes of A shares all fell by around 20%, or even more. At the same time, the trading volume of the whole market has been shrinking since the beginning of July, indicating that investors are depressed. The Hong Kong market is worse than A-shares in terms of decline and shrinking trading volume. This is mainly due to the superposition of the following factors:

First, the domestic economy continued to slump, lower than expected. When NPC and CPPCC set the annual economic growth target at 5.5% at the beginning of the year, the market had certain expectations for the annual economic performance under the background of obvious willingness to support policies. However, the large-scale and frequent outbreaks of epidemic, the suppression of economic activities by closed measures and the increase of risks in the real estate market have made the economy lower than expected, and investors' expectations for the performance of listed companies have also been lowered.

Second, internationally, global inflation is high, stimulus policies are withdrawn, and tight monetary policies are introduced. The Federal Reserve has continuously raised interest rates sharply, trying to curb inflation by curbing demand, and the expectation of economic recession in Europe and America is heating up. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the international environment facing China became more complicated.

Third, after the all-round bull market in 2020 and the structural bull market in 20021,the overall market valuation was not low at the beginning of this year, and even some sectors were on the high side, which made the downward revision of fundamental expectations often accompanied by the simultaneous downward revision of valuation.

In terms of investment, the first three quarters mainly focused on capturing structural opportunities, and gained alpha opportunities through in-depth industry research and enterprise research to resist overall market fluctuations. From the perspective of industry configuration, high growth rate is scarce when the overall economy is under pressure. We actively explore opportunities to subdivide high-prosperity industries such as new energy. At the same time, in the turbulent global environment, the value of physical assets is prominent, and we have increased the allocation of upstream energy and resources.

In terms of product categories, Yude has three product lines: active equity long-term products, hedging products and overseas funds, which also provides investors with rich choices to choose products suitable for their own risk-return characteristics and asset allocation objectives in a complex and ever-changing market environment.

After a long period of substantial market adjustment, many risks have been released. Follow-up needs to pay attention to the changes in three aspects:

On the policy level, the conference in June 5438+10 will bring a series of changes that will continue to affect the future for many years. Read more and analyze more during this time, don't worry. In addition, the consensus expectation of the current market is that the epidemic prevention policy will not be liberalized until 23 years, but after all, the economic pressure is great, and it is not ruled out that there will be policies that exceed expectations, and the market will continue to trade this change. The new economic policy may not be promulgated until the economic work conference in early February. 65438+ is an important observation point.

At the performance level, it is about to enter the third quarterly report. According to the survey, some listed companies will give good performance. Of course, some companies will be affected by export and consumption, and there will be a high probability of structural differentiation.

At the transaction level, the market experienced a period of comprehensive panic and basically reached the bottom position. The trading volume has shrunk to the level of the end of April, and the data we tracked also showed that the proportion of private equity fund positions reached a low point, indicating that basically all the funds to be sold have been cleared. For white horse stocks, the phenomenon of "killing white horse" is a phenomenon that the transaction is out of touch with the company's fundamentals when the market liquidity is seriously insufficient. At present, the white horse stocks that fell in the early stage, such as Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. and Mindray Medical, have obviously stabilized. From the perspective of trading, it shows that the panic in the market is basically clear.

Overall, there is limited room for the decline of SSE 50 and CSI 300. If the performance in the third quarter is better than expected (it is not difficult to exceed expectations), it will drive the market value to gradually repair the valuation.

Zhao: head of quantitative research of Yude Quantou, series fund manager.

Peking University Bachelor of Mathematics, Tsinghua University Doctor of Management Science and Engineering, GeorgiaTech Visiting Scholar.

He used to be a researcher in financial engineering of Bosera Fund, and was responsible for the absolute income strategy of the fund special account; He used to be the investment manager of equity derivatives department of CITIC Securities, responsible for the buyer's business such as fundamental hedging portfolio, derivative investment and private equity investment, with the largest management portfolio exceeding 6 billion.

Wang Jiandong, Investment Director of Xiangju Capital:

Absolute return investment makes as few mistakes as possible and does not go to extremes.

The trend of A shares in the first three quarters of 2022 can be described as twists and turns. First of all, the "black swan" continues, the Federal Reserve "violently" raises interest rates, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the outbreak of the epidemic? It led to a certain degree of correction in the A-share market, and entered the adjustment mode again since the middle and late August; However, during this period, there was also a wave of rapid rise and rebound, and the structural and staged market put forward no small test for investors.

In our opinion, taking a "moderate avoidance" attitude towards risks can even tolerate staged mediocrity. Absolute return investment makes as few mistakes as possible and does not go to extremes.

Since the beginning of this year, the accumulation of wealth has been balanced and flexible, and the position has been decisively increased in early May. While the overall exit is relatively controllable, it also seized the opportunity of rising. Since the middle and late August, there has been a correction in the market, and we have adjusted our positions and moderately reduced our positions.

Waiting for "bargain hunting" is painful, but it's worth it.

At the end of last year and the beginning of this year, most of the opinions in the market thought that the investment difficulty in 2022 was better than 202 1, or that the market was "easy to rise but difficult to fall". However, unexpected events such as the Fed's interest rate hike exceeding expectations and the imminent outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, especially the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, are beyond the scope of judgment. No matter the direction or time of the conflict, it has far exceeded expectations, the uncertainty has greatly increased, the market has a strong risk aversion atmosphere, and the market has experienced a wave of adjustment. Then there is the impact of the epidemic, including Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing. Especially in Shanghai, as a financial center and supply chain center, pressing the "pause button" has a great impact on the manufacturing supply chain, which is reflected in the secondary market, that is, A shares, as an important part of manufacturing, are under great pressure and their share prices fall for a short time. Growth enterprise market also suffered a bigger decline. A big reason is that the valuation of emerging track growth stocks is relatively expensive in the past two years, and the decline is naturally even greater under such pressure.

After the market began to decline, we reduced some positions, and as the market sentiment fell to the bottom, we also continuously reduced the positions of products. Then, at the beginning of May, we quickly started to add positions, and the positions of old products were mentioned near the normal 80%. As the net value rebounded, the position remained at a high level.

Since late August, there has been another wave of correction in A-shares, especially in the growth sector. On the one hand, affected by the epidemic and high temperature, the domestic economy is still at the bottom, and the consumer demand of residents needs to be further strengthened; On the other hand, track stocks such as new energy, photovoltaics and semiconductors with high prosperity are crowded with a large number of chips, and their growth styles are highly concentrated, which leads to the adjustment of growth plates. At this stage, we have changed positions and reduced positions moderately, so although it has also been affected by the collective decline of the market, the range is limited.

We dared to "bargain-hunting" and add positions at the end of April and early May because we felt that the market reaction at that time was too pessimistic and there were signs of improvement. From a technical point of view, we have entered an interval of bottom layout.

At the same time, this dare to bargain-hunting is actually a revision of 20 18 -20 19. At the end of 18 and the beginning of 19, I was cautious, afraid to bargain, and missed the subsequent rebound. So this bargain-hunting actually learned the lesson that 18 didn't bargain-hunting. If you bargain-hunt, you only need to endure short-term losses, but in the long run it is also an opportunity to make big money.

Because the rebound at the bottom is often very intense, once the bargain-hunting is successful, it will increase by 20-30%. Missed the potential of losing 5% and getting a rebound return of 20-30%, which is very cost-effective. And many times, when I realize it's bargain hunting, the high probability is not the bottom. The bottom can only wait, although the process of waiting is painful, but it is worth it.

The way to invest in growth stocks: comprehensive winning rate and odds

Collection is characterized by growth stock style, which is called "GARP" within us. The so-called GARP strategy is to acquire high-growth companies at a reasonable valuation. First of all, I believe that investing in growth stocks can bring good returns, but at the same time, I don't think we can pay too high a premium for current growth or foreseeable growth in the future, nor can we buy them at very expensive prices. This requires a reasonable and accurate pricing of the company's value and how to treat the company's reasonable value.

In our investment, we hope to discount the company's predictable future cash flow by studying the fundamentals of industries and individual stocks, and compare the current price with its value on this basis. If the price is very cheap, there is a lot of room for future value expansion, that is, we are willing to buy growth stocks at a reasonable or even low price to pay this premium. I won't buy it if it's not cheap when I buy it, even if the current valuation has been overdrawn to the valuation level after five or six years. In essence, one of GARP's strategies is a cost-effective investment method.

We believe that investment should first choose companies with high winning rate and odds, and then choose the best companies among them. Companies with high winning rate are characterized by stable industry structure, deep barriers, high profit quality and strong certainty and stability of long-term operation; Companies with high odds pay more attention to space and flexibility. Typical cases are growth stocks that are in the stage of rapid promotion, unclear industry structure, small current market value but considerable explosive power in the future. But because most companies can't have these two characteristics, we will also buy one of the outstanding leading companies.

For example, we are optimistic about a certain sub-industry, even if we think that the market has been discovered, but we are particularly optimistic about the long-term growth prospects of the industry, we will buy it. There is also a category that may have high odds, but the certainty is not high. I am also willing to buy some positions for such companies and strive for flexibility in the low market value. Because the position is not high, if you stop loss in time, even if you lose money, you won't lose too much. But once you become a "dark horse", the income is very high.

Industries or companies with high odds usually belong to "industries at the forefront" with many participants. At the same time, new technologies are constantly emerging, industrial forms are rapidly iterating, and various new formats and technologies are constantly emerging. This requires investors to have very high technical sensitivity and industry tracking strength. Investment managers need to quickly respond to changes and seek "phased correctness" in constant evolution and iteration. The stock price will reflect this correctness. It can be said that the process is more important than the result.

In addition, we belong to a relatively balanced configuration, and the position of tracking stocks is not high. Overall, new energy-related positions are around 30%. Most of them are unpopular tracks, mainly relying on stock selection.

There are many kinds of investment logics in stock selection in unpopular industries, and the industries are also particularly scattered. In fact, I am particularly willing to buy a company with an unpopular track, mainly because the probability of losing money is not high. The so-called unpopular track means that the market attention is not high, that is to say, it is a kind of protection for investors, because the market attention is not high and the stock price bubble is less. Buying such a low-key company is a kind of protection for fund managers who manage a certain scale.

Investment in the fourth quarter: there are both tracking stocks and unpopular industries

A few days ago, after the disclosure of the interim report of listed companies, our first concern was some situations in which the performance exceeded expectations. If it exceeds expectations, it means that the company is very resilient and we will basically hold it. In companies that are less than expected, it is necessary to divide the situation. If you can explain the reasons (such as the epidemic) that are not as expected, you are still willing to continue to observe for a while. There are still some companies that have not been affected by the epidemic, but their performance is relatively weak, indicating that they do not have the ability to withstand stress when dealing with adversity. If there is no obvious upward reversal kinetic energy in the next six months, some reductions may be made.

For example, some companies in the military industry, new energy, medical devices and other industries performed very well, especially medical devices, which were hit by the epidemic, but performed well. It means that if there is no epidemic, the growth of performance will be faster, and such a company is what we like.

For example, the pharmaceutical industry can pay attention to stocks with accelerated growth or inflection points, especially innovative equipment companies. Some companies have turned around from their difficulties, or their performance has shown a trend of accelerated growth.

In addition, I am also optimistic about the beer industry, which has both short-term and long-term investment logic. The pattern of beer industry is stable, and the influence scope between brands has been divided according to the transportation radius, and often only one beer brand in a region can dominate. From the time dimension of ten years, under the condition of stable pattern, the structure of beer products can be continuously upgraded, and the price will be correspondingly increased, thus bringing about an increase in profit margin. For some consumers, beer is a high-frequency rigid demand. In the short term, the unit price is not high, and consumers are less sensitive to the price. Therefore, beer consumption is less affected by the epidemic, and short-term sales data are bright.

The intelligent upgrading of automobiles, including cars, interiors, exteriors and auto parts brought by electrification, cannot be completed in one year, two years or three years and five years, and it takes many years to accumulate. The time period of industrial trends is very long, long enough to correspond to the cycle length of the trajectory. Meanwhile, the market is huge. According to a year's calculation, the global automobile sales volume is nearly 1 100 million, corresponding to a market of several billion, and the market space is huge. There are high barriers to new energy vehicles, one of which is the strict entry threshold in the automobile supply chain. For new entrants, it will take about five to seven years to enter the supply chain or even become the mainstream supplier of the car factory. Generally speaking, it is a "long slope and thick snow" track.

Finally, considering the expectation of global macro-environment, loose domestic monetary policy, epidemic situation, real estate sales data and crowded institutional positions in the high boom track, we judge that there is a wide fluctuation in the fourth quarter. For the configuration in the fourth quarter, we will combine the judgment of industry prosperity and bottom-up stock selection. While choosing a high-prosperity track from top to bottom, we should also choose companies with long-term sustainable development, high competition barriers and clear growth veins through bottom-up stock selection.

Wang Jiandong, director of capital investment and fund manager.

From 2003 to 2009, he studied in Tsinghua University, and obtained a bachelor's degree and a master's degree in electrical engineering respectively. Worked for State Grid in 2009, and entered the fund industry on 20 1 1. He used to work for TEDA Hongli Jinjin Hotan Hong Fund Management Co., Ltd. as a senior researcher. 20 15 joined juju capital as the founding partner, fund manager and investment director.