Which cities are the most promising?

First of all, there is nothing better than the city with the most resources except the first-tier cities. A promising city must have the following characteristics:

First, more than three high-speed trains have passed and become node cities in the era of rail transit.

Second, the population has flowed in or at least returned in the past decade.

Third, local educational resources provide a strong backing for economic development.

Fourth, the per capita local and foreign currency deposits are relatively high, which can support local consumption and construction.

Fifth, the rapid growth of GDP.

In the ranking, we will comprehensively consider the region where the city is located, the existence of economy, education and culture, and the future engine that has been displayed.

Nanjing 1

According to the new eight vertical and eight horizontal high-speed rail plan to 2030, four or more high-speed rail node cities are Shenyang, Tianjin, Jinan, Shijiazhuang, Hefei, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Changsha, Chongqing, Guiyang, Chengdu, Xi 'an, Lanzhou and Yinchuan. Judging from the distance from China's core regional economic zone, the cities with the most bonuses are Zhengzhou and Wuhan, followed by others.

▲ Schematic diagram of medium and long-term (2030) planning of China's high-speed railway network.

Nanjing, which once ranked the third in GDP in Jiangsu Province, surpassed Wuxi by 20 14. At present, the trend of catching up with Suzhou has been formed, and the influence of resources in the province has spread to the east of Anhui Province, and it will inevitably become the most important city in Jiangsu Province in the future.

In the ranking of population inflow in 35 cities, from 2009 to 20 14, the inflow of permanent residents in Nanjing was 500,000, which was lower than that in Suzhou. However, the educational resources in Nanjing are far better than those in Suzhou, with 53 colleges and universities, which are far higher than those in Hangzhou. The development of Nanjing is supported by strong higher education.

In 20 15, the GDP of Nanjing was 972.077 billion yuan, and the per capita local and foreign currency deposits were 326.5438+0.4 million yuan. Among the three capital cities in the Yangtze River Delta, it is slightly lower than Hangzhou, much higher than Hefei, nearly double, but the growth rate exceeds Hangzhou.

The key is that Nanjing has profound cultural heritage and unique educational resources, which can almost rival Shanghai and other places. In addition, the human and talent resources in Anhui and other places tend to move eastward, which is a great impetus to the development of Nanjing.

2. Suzhou

There are not so many high-speed rail lines in Suzhou, but Suzhou is almost the city that benefits most from the export-oriented economy. From Singapore Industrial Park to thriving industrial parks and new districts, Suzhou has almost been built into a new city in developed countries in East Asia.

What is commendable is that Suzhou has almost completely preserved the original ancient city, which is almost the only well-preserved ancient city in China I have ever seen, leaving a wealth of resources, and I have to admire the decision-makers at that time.

▲ Suzhou

From 2009 to 2065,438+04, Suzhou had a population of 654,380+02,300, ranking 65,438+02 among 35 cities. From 2005 to 2065,438+05, its GDP increased by 257%, ranking 65,438+07 among 33 cities.

With the decline of foreign trade and the decline of manufacturing industry, Suzhou suffered a blow, and the withdrawal or rigidity of foreign capital led to the gradual decline of Suzhou enterprises, and the purchasing managers index of Suzhou manufacturing industry also collapsed.

In the past two years, Suzhou Zixing Paper Company, a subsidiary of Stora Enso Group of Finland, an international packaging and paper giant, closed down and was established in 1993.

20 15 12 took root in Suzhou 16, and the once brilliant Nokia Suzhou factory closed.

20 15 10, China resources, a domestic private glass giant headquartered in zhangjiagang, Suzhou, was blown out of production and liquidated.

2065438+July 2005, Puguang Electronics, the OEM of Samsung galaxy, closed down in Wujiang, Suzhou.

On 20 14, 1 1, Lian Jian, an apple supplier, announced its closure. At its peak, the company had more than 20,000 employees.

20 14, 1 1, the supplier of Nokia mobile phone accessories in Xukou Town, Suzhou, stopped production. At the most glorious time of Honghui Technology, there were tens of thousands of employees.

Suzhou's GDP is lower than that of Shenzhen, but Suzhou's investment is much higher than that of Shenzhen, and its consumption is far less than that of Shenzhen. This is the pain of Suzhou. The local economic structure and innovation ability are not as good as those of Shenzhen, so it must go through a phoenix nirvana. At present, the rise in house prices is only a monetary phenomenon.

A thin camel is bigger than a horse. According to the latest data, by the end of June, the balance of local and foreign currency deposits of financial institutions in Suzhou was 2,750.4 billion yuan, up 9.35% year-on-year. The latest resident population in Suzhou is about 106 1 10,000, and the per capita population is about 259,200, which is lower than that in Nanjing. The latest influx in Suzhou is falling sharply.

Suzhou can be listed as a city that will undergo great changes in the future, and its position in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration will not decline.

3. Wuhan

Wuhan is a high-speed rail node city, competing with Zhengzhou for the aviation hub. Unlike Zhengzhou, it is an important port city in the traditional sense.

From 2009 to 20 14, the inflow of permanent residents was1230,000, which was the same as Suzhou. The difference is that until now, the population of Wuhan is still flowing in. This is caused by different stages of development. Generally speaking, the population in the first-tier cities and the population inflow in the eastern coastal areas are declining, and the population is returning to the central region.

In 20 15 years, the per capita local and foreign currency deposit in Wuhan was 182800 yuan, slightly higher than that in Tianjin. In the past ten years, the GDP growth rate ranked third among 33 cities, reaching 387%, second only to Changsha and Chongqing. This is a city that is still investing heavily and importing population on a large scale.

What is important is that there are 86 colleges and universities in Wu Hanyou, which are second to none in China. If this educational resource is given to Shenzhen, Shenzhen will fly. When Wuhan's economy went down, the two lake basins provided Shenzhen with a steady stream of talent base.

▲ Wuhan

There is no doubt that this central town will continue to develop with the east wind of high-speed rail and the strength of huge infrastructure and education.

4. Hangzhou

In Zhejiang province, no city can compare with Hangzhou. Zhejiang is the birthplace of market economy in the new period. The scenic spots around the West Lake in Hangzhou are basically "bosses" with a Zhejiang accent, except for various nursing homes and government military schools.

In downtown Hangzhou, you can hear the local accent. In the ranking of 35 cities published by Cai Yi as of 20 14, Hangzhou ranks 15. In fact, locals will feel more, because the traffic near the West Lake has become a must, and the traffic jam is as good as Beijing. The city has changed from surrounding the West Lake to surrounding the Qiantang River.

Due to the large number of business owners, Hangzhou's wealth is deeply deposited. Among the important cities in the Yangtze River Delta except Shanghai, Hangzhou has the highest GDP and the largest local and foreign currency deposits. In 20 15, the total GDP reached1005358,000 yuan, and the per capita local and foreign currency deposits were 33 120 yuan, both slightly higher than those in Nanjing. If it is a separate country, it can already be included in the ranks of developed countries. In the past two years, the housing prices in Nanjing and Hefei have skyrocketed, but the increase in Hangzhou is not big, because the housing prices in Hangzhou have become impatient and have long been among the cities in the housing price 1.5 line.

▲ Hangzhou

In the process of transformation, Hangzhou Steel's problems have little impact on Hangzhou, unlike Angang Steel, because the economic growth here is enough to digest the pain of transformation.

This tourist city has become a creaking economic center with a large population, and its ambition is not small. It never wants to be a vassal of Shanghai. Now the e-commerce town is Hangzhou except Shenzhen. Among the creative industrial parks I have been to, Hangzhou is still relatively active. Nowadays, financial towns and characteristic towns are widely spread all over the country and become a useful supplement to Hangzhou. Even Wuzhen has become a characteristic IP with high housing prices, mixed water towns and modern colors.

Hangzhou also has problems. The traffic planning in the city is not smooth, and higher education lags behind Nanjing, Hefei and other cities. There are only 39 colleges and universities in Hangzhou, far less than 60 in Hefei and 39 in Nanjing, and the number of college students and graduate students is far less than that in Hefei and Nanjing, which is a hidden danger for Hangzhou. Of course, Hangzhou can attract foreign talents through its environment and wealth, which is what we are doing now.

5. Hefei

In the past six months, Hefei's housing price growth rate ranked first in the country, which was a compensatory increase. Among the capital cities in the Yangtze River Delta, it's Hefei's turn now. And Hefei's land policy is very wise.

Hefei has developed rapidly, with GDP of 85.3 billion yuan in 2005 and 566.03 billion yuan in 20 15, an increase of 6.63 times in ten years. 20 16 20 16 In the first half of the year, the GDP of Anhui Province was11028.5 billion yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year, and that of Hefei City was 257.55 billion yuan, up 9.4% at comparable prices. The key point is that the service industry is improving, and its contribution to GDP exceeds that of industry, which shows that the city has entered a dynamic era of segmented development, rather than a few central enterprises "running cooperatives with enterprises" and killing society.

▲ Hefei

Among the capital cities of the Yangtze River Delta, Hefei is a relatively backward city with a poor foundation. Local and foreign currency deposits rank the lowest among the capital cities of the Yangtze River Delta, which is more than half lower. According to the data of 20 15, the total local and foreign currency deposits are119371000000 yuan, and the per capita local and foreign currency deposits are 143700 yuan, which is incomparable with the per capita 330,000 yuan in Nanjing and Hangzhou.

In 2009-2065 438+04, Hefei's population inflow ranked seventh from the bottom among 35 cities in China, with an inflow of 340,000 people in five years, indicating that Hefei's attraction to the people of the whole country is still relatively weak, mainly in the province, and now it is gradually infiltrating into the Yangtze River Delta.

But Hefei has an advantage. Among the capital cities of the Yangtze River Delta, Hefei has the largest number of universities, 7 more than Nanjing and 2 1 more than Hangzhou! Hefei got the highest ranking from the University of Science and Technology of China, which led to companies like Iflytek. When Hefei's economy took off, the talent pool was relatively rich.

Although the economic growth and population growth of Hefei are not as good as those of Tianjin and other cities, from the perspective of existence and economic hinterland, Hefei is still included in the sequence of seeing more cities.

6. Zhengzhou

My preference for Zhengzhou has been widely publicized. This is not a cultural love, but an objective judgment based on the formation of the general trend, and the situation is stronger than others. There is no doubt that Zhengzhou has become the most concerned city in the Central Plains.

▲ Zhengzhou

Zhengzhou, like Wuhan, is a city on high-speed rail, and more than seven high-speed rails pass by. Zhengzhou is the city that has benefited the most from railway development. Dr. Sun Yat-sen's railway dream has been embodied in Zhengzhou today. In addition, Zhengzhou and Wuhan compete for the position of aviation hub, and around the layout of airport new city, it is possible to stage the glorious history of Zhengdong New District again.

In the past, Henan's population structure was unreasonable, with many children and many elderly people. When I was young and middle-aged, I dispersed to other urban agglomerations to work. This is an area that exports demographic dividends. However, in recent years, population mobility has changed, and the proportion of young and middle-aged population has increased.

From the data of population inflow in 35 cities, from 2009 to 20 14, Zhengzhou ranked sixth among the inflow population, at least the most attractive city in Henan Province.

Thanks to the industrial transformation and the westward migration of manufacturing industry, Zhengzhou's industrial development has attracted attention. According to the information released by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EUI) last August, the compound annual growth rate of Zhengzhou, a densely populated area, has reached 53%, ranking second in the EUI index. In 2005, Zhengzhou's GDP was 65.438+065 billion yuan, and in 2065.438+05, it was 736.5438+052 billion yuan, an increase of 44.3 times in ten years. There are 56 colleges and universities in Zhengzhou, which are not as good as Nanjing and Wuhan, but higher than Tianjin. The number of college students in Zhengzhou is higher than that in Chengdu and lower than that in Wuhan. In other words, Zhengzhou has advantages in both population and talents.

The disadvantage of Zhengzhou is also obvious. The development of market economy is lagging behind, which makes the standardized development of market economy take a long time. Whether begging, fake cultural relics, financial standardization, etc. Its reputation is not very good. Culturally speaking, the commercial civilization of the Central Plains has been relatively backward since modern times, and now it needs a process of catching up. Although there are certain advantages in educational resources, the labor force without professional training is larger, and it takes more than ten years of training to form a well-trained labor force group.

7. Chengdu

In Sichuan province, no city can compete with Chengdu at present and in the future. Chongqing, which once competed, was carved out of Sichuan and became an independent administrative region.

Chengdu is a city suitable for human habitation. Mahjong and bar styles complement each other. It is not surprising that so many people come from Sichuan in the super boy and super girl competition every year.

▲ Chengdu

There seems to be no opportunities for innovation in the eastern coastal areas, but there is an industry in Chengdu that is closely related to eating, drinking and having fun, and that is games. According to the relevant person in charge of Chengdu High-tech Zone, by the end of 20 15, Chengdu High-tech Zone had gathered more than 400 game companies, with a sales revenue of 8.24 billion, up 35.97% year-on-year. In the past three years, there have been no fewer than 30 funds active in Chengdu and Chongqing, whose investment direction is mobile Internet and games, including Jingwei Venture Capital, Lenovo Star, Dexun Capital, Kaisheng Capital, IDG, Zhenge Fund, Polaroid and Fukun Venture Capital. Of course, there are also small cases and many closures, but the industrial chain has developed.

The real estate price in Chengdu is not "eye-catching" in the provincial capital cities, mainly due to the large amount of land and large inventory. In the first half of this year, housing improved. According to the data of Sichuan Zhongyuan Real Estate's 20 16 semi-annual report, the supply area of commercial housing in the main urban area in the first half of the year was 434.065438+100000 ㎡, down 18.85% from the previous month and 20.62% from the same period last year. The transaction area was 4,667,500 ㎡, down 1.42% from the previous month and up1.88% year-on-year. In the first half of 20 16, the property market in Chengdu was unexpectedly warm, but it was only slightly warm, and commercial real estate remained a long-standing problem in Chengdu.

Commercial real estate is a headache. According to the data of Sichuan Zhongyuan Real Estate 20 16 semi-annual report, the commercial inventory in Chengdu is still high. The stock of shops is 6.5438+0.273 million ㎡, and the decontamination cycle is 7 years; The stock of office buildings is 332㎡, and the decontamination cycle is 6 years; The stock of apartments is 3.57 million ㎡, and the decontamination cycle is 3 years.

From 2005 to 20 15, the resident population of Chengdu increased by 2.448 million in ten years. There are 56 colleges and universities in Chengdu, just like Zhengzhou. There are as many as 78,500 graduate students, which shows the strength of local R&D. Chengdu's per capita local and foreign currency deposits are 20. 1 1 10,000, which is much higher than Hefei's, basically the same as the eastern coastal areas, and its consumption intention is very strong.

Sichuan established a new free trade zone in early September. The relevant person in charge of the Sichuan Provincial Department of Commerce said that the Pilot Free Trade Zone will be mainly located in Chengdu, which is even more powerful for Chengdu.

8. Chongqing

Chongqing, which has always been at odds with Chengdu, is an independent city and the largest municipality directly under the central government in China, with the most land resources, which is understandable because it is surrounded by large rural areas.

Chongqing has been dazzling in recent years, because GDP has grown rapidly, which has almost become a myth. 3 1 provinces and cities 20 16 The year-on-year GDP growth data show that Tibet, Chongqing and Guizhou lead the country in this indicator, with GDP growth rates of 10.6%, 10.6% and 10.5% respectively. Chongqing's economic growth rate has remained at the forefront of the country for ten consecutive quarters.

▲ Chongqing

Chongqing's finance and investment are among the best in the country. However, Chongqing has a low base. From the perspective of wealth accumulation, the total amount of deposits outside the local currency in Chongqing is similar to that in Chengdu, and the per capita is very poor, only 47% of that in Chengdu. Strangely, the consumption in Chongqing is not bad, which shows that the gap between the rich and the poor here is still serious.

Last year, the resident population of Chongqing was 300 1 .6555 million, which was1times that of Chengdu. There are 8 more universities than Chengdu, but the number of graduate students is not as good as Chengdu.

In southwest China, Chengdu and Chongqing are the three major transportation nodes leading to the Middle East, Europe and the East, thus integrating into the global economy. Chongqing's culture is very distinctive, and Jie Fangbei's fashion is famous all over the country. The Yangtze River Bridge that shuttles here indicates where Chongqing's economic bottom line is in recent years.

9. Tianjin

Tianjin is a municipality directly under the central government that has no sense of existence for a long time. Mainly because it is too close to Beijing, the siphon effect absorbs most of the resources. The former commercial capital couldn't bear to look straight at the street in the 1980s.

Tianjin was selected because Beijing's resources really overflowed, and the city of Tianjin turned over from the bottom. Tianjin's GDP grew by 9.3% last year, basically keeping pace with Chongqing. However, the disadvantage of Tianjin is that although the per capita GDP is 20 1 1, the per capita disposable income of urban residents is not far from that of Shanghai. Tianjin's GDP has not been well transformed into residents' income, but has become an investment in major projects. This is a city with a stronger government-led will than Shanghai. It is not something to boast about, and it has laid several mines for future development.

▲ Tianjin

Last year, the total amount of local and foreign currency deposits in Tianjin was 28 149.37 yuan, and the per capita income was182,000 yuan, which was lower than that in Nanjing and higher than that in Chongqing. This gives people the same impression as Tianjin, not as good as other eastern coastal areas. However, considering that there are many heavy chemical industries, the transformation is still a very hard work. With the establishment of Tianjin Free Trade Zone, the sales of imported cars have always stood out in the country.

With the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, Beijing cannot support an urban agglomeration independently, and the satellite cities around Beijing and Tianjin are the most beneficial cities. In the national strategy of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development, Tianjin's positioning is very clear: the national advanced manufacturing R&D base, the northern international shipping core area, the financial innovation operation demonstration area, and the reform and opening-up pioneer area. Its original intention seems to be to return to the former northern financial center, commercial center and shipping center. I have been to Tianjin High-tech Zone, and the government efficiency is not bad. There are 55 colleges and universities in Tianjin, only one less than Chengdu, and the educational resources are quite rich.

For Tianjin, the most difficult problem is to rebuild its independent character and deepen its marketization.

Xiamen 10

The population of Xiamen is not comparable to that of some provincial capital cities, nor is it comparable to that seaside city with a clear moon and clear wind. The recent rise in housing prices shows that there is only one most popular city in Fujian-Xiamen.

In 2009-20 14, the resident population of Xiamen increased by1390,000, ranking 1 1 among 35 cities in China, with an increase of about 330,000 in five years. According to this data, the residents of this city are rich, with a solid wealth base and strong consumption power.

▲ Xiamen

Xiamen is a distinctive tourist city. Compared with Dali and other characteristic tourist cities, Xiamen has a broader hinterland and a more developed industrial base, and is the first city to benefit from the economic docking with Taiwan Province Province. Stepping into Xiamen airport is small in scale, reasonable and efficient, with the same characteristics as Xiamen city, and completely different from the Big Mac planning of other cities.

Xiamen is the intersection of the Maritime Silk Road and the Land Silk Road. According to the Work Plan of Xiamen-Chengdu-Oubanlie National Logistics New Channel Construction issued by Xiamen Municipal Government this year, Xiamen-Chengdu-Oubanlie plans to ship 4,500 trains 100 and containers with a value of 4 billion yuan this year. It is estimated that by 2020, 2000 trains and 80,000 containers will be operated throughout the year, with a value of 78.3 billion yuan.