How to deal with the changes and challenges of China industrial robot industry on 20 16?

Looking forward to 20 16, opportunities and challenges coexist in the development of China's robot industry, including favorable factors such as the deep influence of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, the accelerated pace of industrial economic transformation and upgrading, the gradual enhancement of endogenous motivation for economic development, and the continuous implementation of various favorable policies, as well as unfavorable factors such as increased international instability, increased downward pressure on the domestic economy, more severe foreign trade situation, and poor financing environment for enterprises.

Forward-looking Industry Research Institute's "20 16-202 1 China Industrial Robot Industry Demand Forecast and Transformation and Upgrading Analysis Report" points out that in the past 20 15 years, in the face of complicated domestic and international situations, China's robot industry has achieved healthy and rapid development, the market scale has been further expanded, the application fields and regions have been further expanded, and its own brands have been continuously developed and expanded. Looking forward to 20 16, opportunities and challenges coexist in the development of China's robot industry, including favorable factors such as the deep influence of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, the accelerated pace of industrial economic transformation and upgrading, the gradual enhancement of endogenous motivation for economic development, and the continuous implementation of various favorable policies, as well as unfavorable factors such as increased international instability, increased downward pressure on the domestic economy, more severe foreign trade situation, and poor financing environment for enterprises.

I. Basic Judgment of the Situation 20 16

(a) The global demand for robots continues to grow.

Since 20 15, the international economic situation is not optimistic, the global economic recovery is slow, and geopolitical and emergency risks are rising. However, with the rise of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, new manufacturing modes such as intelligent manufacturing, digital manufacturing and network manufacturing with the integration of information technology and manufacturing technology as the core are accelerating. Developed industrial countries and regions attach great importance to the development of robot industry and upgrade it to national strategy. These factors keep the global robot industry developing rapidly, especially in the Asian market. According to the International Federation of Robotics's statistics, in 20 14, the global sales of industrial robots was 225,000 units, an increase of 27% over that in 20 13, of which Asia accounted for about two thirds, and China, South Korea, Japan, the United States and Germany accounted for about 75% of the total global sales of industrial robots. From 2005 to 20 14, the average annual growth rate of newly installed industrial robots in the world was about 14%.

It is predicted that in 20 16, the economic recovery momentum of developed countries will increase, the development prospects of emerging economies are expected to improve, and the global demand for robots is expected to continue to grow rapidly. Among them, industrial robots are expected to grow by about 15%, the United States and Europe by about 6%, and Asia/Australia by about 16%. The top two sales of dedicated service robots are still expected to be national defense robots and milking robots, which account for about half of the sales of service robots. It is estimated that 8 million personal/household service robots will be sold, mainly household robots such as vacuuming, mowing grass, cleaning windows and entertainment robots.

(b) The industrial robot market in China is expanding rapidly.

Since 20 15, the downward pressure on China's economy has further increased, and enterprises are facing difficulties and challenges beyond expectations. Affected by the domestic and international economy, with the rapid rise of labor costs in China, the demographic dividend has gradually disappeared, and the demand of industrial enterprises for automation and intelligent equipment, including industrial robots, has risen rapidly. China robot industry has achieved healthy and rapid development. In 20 14, the installed capacity of industrial robots in China reached 57,000 units, accounting for about14 of the global sales, with a year-on-year increase of 55%, and the number of industrial robots increased to190,000 units.

It is predicted that in 20 16 years, the robot industry in China will still face a more complicated development situation. However, with the further manifestation of the effect of the domestic "steady growth" policy, the pace of industrial economic transformation and upgrading has accelerated, and the endogenous power of economic development has gradually increased. Many places urgently need to adjust the industrial structure and improve the ecological environment. It is expected that the number of newly installed industrial robots in China will continue to grow rapidly, with a year-on-year growth rate of 30%.

(3) Self-owned brand robots continue to grow and develop.

Since 20 15, with the release of "Made in China 2025" and the technology roadmap of its key areas, the promulgation of the implementation plan of the innovative development project of intelligent manufacturing equipment by the National Development and Reform Commission, and the implementation of the "Special Action of Intelligent Manufacturing Pilot Demonstration" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the development and growth of self-owned brand robots have accelerated. First, industrial robots have developed rapidly. Take Song Xin Robot Company as an example. From June 2065438 to July 2005, the company produced and sold more than 800 robots/kloc-0, with an output value of about 2.8 billion yuan. It is estimated that more than 3,500 robots will be sold in 20 15, and the sales income will be more than 5 billion yuan. Second, self-owned brand service robots began to exert their strength. First, the sales of cleaning robots have soared. In 20 15, the sales volume of "Double Eleven" in Cobos reached 3150,000, and the sales volume of sweeping robots reached100,000, which was a major breakthrough in the home service robot industry. Second, the development of self-balancing vehicles has accelerated. In 20 14 years, the domestic market sales of self-balancing vehicles was about 654.38 billion yuan. At present, there are brands such as Ninebot, i-ROBOT, Windrunner, Yibu Technology and Lexing in the domestic balance car market. Third, the localization of robot parts has accelerated. Guangzhou cnc has developed a series of drivers and servo motors, breaking the monopoly of foreign industrial robot drivers and servo motors. Wuhan Endeavour Robot Company has realized the independent production of key components such as motion controller and precision reducer.

It is estimated that in 20 16 years, with the development plan of strategic emerging industries in the 13th Five-Year Plan, the development plan of robot industry in the 13th Five-Year Plan and the introduction of new intelligent manufacturing policies to promote industrial restructuring, the demand for robots in the fields of manufacturing, housekeeping, medical and health care, entertainment and education, and public safety incident handling will continue to increase, and the robot industry will usher in a huge new development space.

(d) The application field continues to expand.

Since 20 15, on the one hand, the guiding opinions of the Ministry of industry and information technology on promoting the development of industrial robot industry, the plan for promoting the deep integration of raw materials industry (20 15-20 18), and the implementation plan of the humanized special project with less (no) civil explosion safety production have been continuously implemented, on the other hand, For example, Guangdong proposes to promote the integration of informatization and industrialization with intelligent manufacturing as the starting point, actively implement the transformation projects of "equipment substitution" and "production line and production system", cultivate the top ten intelligent manufacturing demonstration bases in the province, and vigorously develop the robot industry. Foshan promotes the application of industrial robots in automobile manufacturing, ceramic household appliances, mechanical equipment, metal material processing and other fields. Anhui Province promotes the application of industrial robots in automobiles, household appliances, construction machinery, ships and other industries. The application field of industrial robots has gradually extended from the current automobile, electronics, metal products, rubber and plastic industries to textile, logistics, national defense and military industry, civil explosion, pharmacy, semiconductor, food, raw materials and other industries.

It is predicted that in 20 16 years, with the continuous implementation of robot replacement projects in key positions, special projects for safe production (without humanization) and new application demonstration policies, the application fields of industrial robots will be expected to extend to textile and logistics industries with high labor intensity, national defense and military industries with high risks, industries such as medicine, semiconductors and food, and industries such as ceramics and bricks that endanger human health.

(e) The application field continues to expand.

Since 20 15, influenced by factors such as industrial base and enterprise will, the application fields of industrial robots are mainly concentrated in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Beijing and other places, and the number of industrial robots accounts for more than half of the country.

It is estimated that in 20 16 years, with the development of western China, the revitalization of northeast China, the rise of central China and the accelerated implementation of regional development led by the east, the use of industrial robots in central and western China will also increase, and industrial robots will be more used in high-end manufacturing areas such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta.

Second, the need to pay attention to several issues

(1) The products are mainly low-end.

20 16 there is still a big gap between the overall technology of robot industry in China and the advanced level abroad. Domestic industrial robots are mainly low-end products, mainly producing handling and loading and unloading robots, and the situation that most of them are three-axis and four-axis robots is still difficult to reverse. The market of six-axis and above high-end industrial robots used in high-end industries such as automobile manufacturing and welding is mainly occupied by Japanese and European and American enterprises, and domestic six-axis industrial robots account for less than 10% of the newly installed industrial robots in China.

(B) weak ability of independent innovation

20 16 core key technologies lack original achievements and innovative ideas, and the demand of enterprises and markets is still outstanding. There is a big gap between industrial robots and developed countries in high reliability basic functional components, product design, materials and technology, mass production of mainframe and system integration level. The technical gap of high-reliability basic functional components such as precision reducer, servo motor, servo driver and controller is particularly prominent, and it has long relied on imports. The precise control of service robot, multi-sensor information fusion and intelligent control, core components such as precision reducer and servo driver, and processing and assembly technology are far from foreign advanced products.

(3) The cost pressure of enterprises is high.

Entering 20 16, the situation of long-term dependence on imports of core components is still difficult to change, and the cost pressure of enterprises is great. In 20 15, about 75% of precision reducers were imported from Japan, and the main suppliers were Hamernaco, Nabotsk and Sumitomo. More than 80% servo motors and drivers are imported, mainly from Japan, Europe, the United States and Taiwan Province Province of China. A large number of key components depend on imports, which leads to great pressure on domestic enterprises' production costs. Compared with foreign enterprises, domestic enterprises should buy nearly four times the price of reducer and nearly two times the price of servo driver.

(D) The recognition of independent brands is not high.

In 20 16, the robot market in China will continue to be dominated by foreign companies, and independent brands need to develop and grow. Because user enterprises are used to using foreign brands, especially in the automobile and electronics industries, which require the highest quality of equipment, products of independent brands and parts cannot be put into the market as soon as possible, and even products with successful application experience are difficult to popularize and apply. Secondly, the scale of industrial robot production enterprises in China is generally small. Among them, 90% of enterprises are below 654.38+0 billion yuan. Even though the sales revenue of Shenyang Song Xin, a leading enterprise, reached 65.438+0.52 billion yuan in 2065.438+04, it was still very small compared with foreign enterprises such as An Chuan, Fanuc and Kuka, whose sales revenue exceeded/kloc-0.00 billion yuan. Third, the competition from foreign products is fierce. In 20 14 years, the sales volume of domestic industrial robots in China was 17000, accounting for less than 30% of the total market. Foreign-funded enterprises actively expand production and shift from assembly of complete machines to production of key components. For example, abb and An Chuan have established production bases in China; 20 15 Nabotsk Co., Ltd. of Japan and Shanghai Electromechanical Co., Ltd. jointly invested and settled in Wujin High-tech Zone. It is planned to put into production at the end of 20 16, with an annual output of 200,000 precision reducers.

(e) Industry standards need to be further standardized.

20 15 in order to improve the technical level and core competitiveness of China's own brand industrial robots and further promote the certification of industrial standards and norms in China's robot industry, the National Development and Reform Commission has set up a special project of "Building the third-party inspection and testing capability of industrial robots-National Robot Testing and Evaluation Center" in the special project of industrial revitalization and technological transformation, with its headquarters in Shanghai and Guangzhou, Chongqing, Shenyang, Wuhu and Beijing.

In 20 16, with the continuous progress in the formulation of standards and specifications by the national evaluation center and other departments, the lack of standards and certification specifications in China's robot industry is expected to be improved, and the specifications and indicators of physical safety, functional safety and information safety in product design are expected to be unified, which is expected to promote the quality improvement of domestic robot products.

Three. Countermeasures and suggestions to be taken

(A) improve the policy support system

First, corresponding support policies are introduced in terms of funds, taxes and product sales subsidies to improve the utilization rate of domestic industrial robots. Implement preferential tax policies for production enterprises; Expand the "Guiding Catalogue for the Promotion and Application of the First (Set) of Major Technical Equipment" to promote the research and development and application of independent brand industrial robots. The second is to study and formulate industry application guidance policies. For example, for some toxic, harmful and dangerous jobs, robots must replace manual work; For jobs with harsh environments such as high temperature and high noise, robots are encouraged to replace labor. Allow the establishment of leasing companies to promote the use of robots by small enterprises. The third is to encourage financial capital, venture capital and private capital to participate in the robot industry, and support qualified enterprises to directly raise funds in overseas capital markets.

(2) Strengthen technology research and development.

First, speed up technology research and development and break through the bottleneck of industrial technology. Second, according to the application requirements, the research on the reliability and manufacturing technology of industrial robots in the whole life cycle is carried out, and the key component technologies are overcome and industrialized. Third, make full use of and integrate existing resources, and continue to promote the construction of R&D platforms, application verification platforms and test centers for complete machines and key components. The fourth is to build next-generation technology research and development platforms such as artificial intelligence, perception, recognition, driving and control, and at the same time pay attention to technological innovations in the fields of energy, big data, safety and materials that are not covered by the existing robot technology system.

(3) In-depth demonstration application

First, around the demand of accelerating the development of intelligent manufacturing in China, we will promote typical application demonstration projects and carry out application demonstrations of self-owned brand industrial robots in automobile, electronics, textile, logistics, national defense and military industry, civil explosion, pharmacy, semiconductor, food and other industries. The second is to promote the industrial demonstration application of key components such as reducer, controller, servo motor, driver and sensor.

(D) efforts to break through key products

First, guided by the market demand, we should concentrate the main technical forces and funds, focus on breaking through 2-3 kinds of industrial robots for high-end applications such as automobiles and electronics, master the overall technology, and form large-scale applications, thus driving the development of China's industrial robot related parts manufacturing enterprises. Second, according to the diversified demand characteristics of customers, select market segments to launch some cost-effective products, and gradually seize the domestic small and medium-sized enterprise user market.

(5) Accelerate the formulation of industry development plans and standards.

First, accelerate the formulation of industry development plans, clarify development priorities, plan industrial layout and development steps, guide the healthy and orderly development of the national robot industry, and form a whole industrial chain system with coordinated development of host enterprises, system integration enterprises, spare parts and industrial service enterprises. The second is to strengthen the top-level design, formulate industry standards and key technical standards, as well as product standards and related application standards.

(six) to strengthen the construction of talent team

First, we should effectively promote the integrated talent training mode in Industry-University-Research and establish a new mechanism for joint training of talents between schools and enterprises. Relying on Chinese Academy of Sciences and other well-known research institutions, through the implementation of large-scale cooperative projects, the joint venture has trained multi-level technical talents from R&D, production and maintenance to system integration. The second is to use vocational training and vocational qualification system to train talents through practical training projects. The third is to strengthen the introduction of high-level talents and attract overseas students to return to China for innovation and entrepreneurship.