Is it reasonable to buy a fund, increase it by 20%, sell it in half, and add positions every day after it is sold out?

Why, this is not the way for funds to make profits.

As a fund practitioner with CFA qualification and an old driver with 13 investment experience, Shu Yun really didn't know what to say when he saw this, and felt that he needed to give a good reason to the new citizen, how to avoid the big pit and how to play with the fund for profit.

What is the significance of taking profit? Is to lock in profits. First of all, Shu Yun asked everyone, have you seen anyone talking about making profits from products such as deposits, baby money funds and low-risk bank financing? I don't think so.

Why? Because this kind of products have low risk and stable income, there is basically no possibility of falling losses.

Then why should the fund stop loss?

This is because the stock market fluctuates and the net value of the fund fluctuates. This leads to the fund's income and the time of holding the fund is not necessarily related. You can't make money by holding it all the time, and the longer you hold it, the more you earn.

To give a simple example, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has grown like this in the past decade:

Similarly, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index funds (such as Huatai Bairui Shanghai and Shenzhen 300ETF) have grown in this way in the past eight years:

If you have been holding it, then you have been taking the elevator. Although the time has been extended, the stock market is still rising, and the fund is indeed profitable for a long time, but the profit space will be much smaller. Moreover, no one can say whether you can persist in the bitter days of being quilted.

At this time, the significance of fund profit-taking came. The profits earned by the fund should be delicious and not lost; When the fund starts to lose money, pay attention to take profit, lock in the money already earned and refuse to take the elevator.

Where is the pit of take profit? Many so-called profit-taking methods are wrong. Regarding take profit, the method mentioned by the subject is the target rate of return-buy a fund and set a fixed rate of return, such as 20%. Once the fund has risen by 20% or the annualized rate of return has reached 20%, it will run away at one time or in batches.

The mistake of this method is that it ignores the uncertainty and unpredictability of stock market returns. The domestic stock market has always been characterized by short bulls and long bears. It is difficult to meet a big bull market, and the gains are considerable, such as the big bull market of 20 14-20 15, the big bull market of 2006-2007, the blue chip market of Big bounce in 2009, the blue chip market of 20 17, and the small and medium-sized stocks in the past year. Every time the increase is much higher than 20%. If you make 20% and run away, will you still make a profit in the future? If so, why run? If not, that's good. Congratulations, you probably won't make much money in the stock market. After all, you only made some sesame seeds and lost the big watermelon.

On the practical level, there is another question, how to choose the threshold-is it set at 20% or 30%? First of all, is it a slap in the face or is it based on historical experience? Is there sufficient theoretical basis and empirical support? If a value is set, such as 20%, it will rise to 19%. What should I do if I stop running and fall back?

How to take profit? Considering all the indicators, we got away with it at the end of the bull market. When investing in stock funds, we must set a reasonable investment cycle according to the bear-cow cycle. That is to say, gradually build positions at the end of the bear market, and gradually add positions as the stock market bottoms out. Finally, clear the position at the end of the bull market, rest in the subsequent bear market and wait for the next cycle. Therefore, the fund profit-taking only occurs in a period, that is, when the bull market ends.

For the judgment of the end of the bull market, Shu Yun felt that it should not be simply measured by several indicators. Every single indicator may go wrong. The best way is to look at more indicators. When individual indicators report to the police, they will gradually retreat in batches to minimize the possibility of a single indicator taking the wrong baton.

For example, consider the following indicators:

Market sentiment. Yunshu thinks this is the simplest and most reliable indicator. When the big bull market comes, the market will be very excited. Almost everyone is talking about the stock market, making money and how much money they plan to invest in it. When everyone is ready to enter the market to make money, is there anyone behind to take over? The bull market of 20 15 is such a portrayal. Shu Yun is outside the industry circle (as an insider, it is normal to discuss stocks in the circle every day, and not discussing them means losing his job), and he has also met too many people who are excited about the stock market, such as the aunt of the neighborhood Committee downstairs, the aunt who sells tea eggs, and the little brother of the barber shop next door. We must be careful when everyone is talking about the stock market. Although it may not fall immediately, it may not be far away.

Technical indicators such as turnover rate and withdrawal. The rise of the stock market is accompanied by the amplification of trading volume, which is called "sky-high price", but the peak of trading volume often precedes the peak of price. And the stock price began to fall below some important moving averages, which also means a change in the trend. Considering such technical analysis indicators can provide signals to some extent.

Macroeconomic indicators. It is just some fundamental factors, such as listed companies' profits not going up, and market interest rates are beginning to tighten.

Is it reasonable to buy a fund, increase it by 20%, sell it in half, and add positions every day after it is sold out? The essence of the subject's question is how to operate the fund after it rises sharply, which is often referred to as the problem of taking profit.

K-line demon's answer is that it is reasonable to sell half, but it is unreasonable to add it every day after it is sold out. Why do you say that?

1, learn how to sell in bulk.

The reason is very simple, whether the stock in hand is a fund or not, but if there is a sharp rise, you must be willing to take profit. In particular, the topic has increased by 20%. At this time, it is necessary to lock in profits in time and avoid taking the elevator. In order to avoid a sharp rise after the sale, the method of selling in batches can be adopted at this time.

So how to sell in bulk?

K-line demon suggests that you sell one-third of the positions for the first time. After selling this one-third, the cost of holding positions is also reduced simultaneously because of lightening positions, and your room for dealing with future declines is also enlarged. At this time, your mentality will become a little easier. Unlike in Man Cang, I am so swayed by considerations of gain and loss that my mentality affects my operation.

If the fund continues to rise, then after another 5% increase, the remaining positions will be reduced by about one third. In this case, you are out of the state of half the country.

If the fund continues to rise in the later period, then when the total increase of the fund reaches 30%, half of it will be sold. At this time, you only have more than 20% positions left, or you can sell them all.

2. Resolutely do not chase after the rise.

After a sharp rise, it was sold in batches. Once sold, we must grasp a principle and resolutely not chase after the rise. The subject said that it would be added every day after sale, which is completely wrong.

After selling, watching the fund continue to rise, there will inevitably be a feeling of regret, and then add positions every day. This practice is classically called chasing up. All of them are ultimately caused by greed. And all quilt covers are obtained because of chasing up.

3. Add positions on dips.

So, when should we add positions?

K-line demon believes that the market has always gone up and down, and doing band is the king of making money. As long as it is not in a unilateral downward trend, when the fund in hand drops by 10% from the highest point, you can increase the position by 10%. After that, you can add positions 10% every 5 points. For individual stocks, they need to fall by about 30% from the highest point, and they can increase their positions by 10%.

All of the above are actually to let retail investors develop the habit of buying in batches and selling in batches, rather than buying and selling in one hammer. This kind of bulk trading may not be able to eat fish heads and fish tails, but it will certainly ensure that you can eat fish bodies. As a retail investor, you are very happy to have fish to eat. Why should we pursue higher?

This can be done, but it is not necessary. This is not a question of rationality, but what is the reason for such planning? Investment is about strategy, not feeling.

Purpose and risk of this operation: 1. Objective: Under normal circumstances, intensive investment is nothing more than the hope that the market will rise rapidly, and then find opportunities to sell and repeatedly earn the difference.

2. Risk: This is a bit of a big luck, because the market will not run according to our mood. If you encounter a situation that lasts for a long time, you will feel that you have no love every day.

How to buy and sell funds is reasonable? First: first of all, it needs to be clear that it takes time to invest funds, and don't always think about making quick money. If you don't want to know the principle, you can skip to the second point. )

The essence of our investment fund is to give money to the fund company, and the professional team will buy and sell the underlying assets instead of us. Different funds correspond to different "basic assets".

For example, buying a stock fund is actually buying a combination of multiple stocks. Fund companies will make use of large-scale funds to make overall layout through operating strategies, and strive to make profits from them, but in a specific period, losses may also occur. Therefore, buying funds needs to wait patiently for the profit opportunities brought about by stock market fluctuations.

Then why don't we buy stocks, bonds, monetary instruments and commodities ourselves? The reasons are basically concentrated in the following aspects:

Secondly, the advantages and disadvantages of different subscription methods are analyzed.

1, buy and hold at one time, and redeem when the profit is rich.

Pros and cons: if you buy at a low level, it may bring a particularly rich profit space, otherwise it may be locked in for a long time and always be at a loss.

For example, the fund ranking in 2020 will increase by more than 100%.

Status of investors: Few people have the patience and courage to wait for opportunities all the year round. To put it another way, what if it falls this year? Isn't it crying to buy it once?

2, buy in batches, or hold or band operation, earn the difference.

Advantages and disadvantages: If you have enough judgment and capital utilization ability in the capital market, this operation mode is both offensive and defensive, which is actually a good investment mode.

Status quo of investors: Many people will feel that they are awesome, really fake, just look at the account.

3. Fixed investment mode, the system automatically deducts money.

Advantages: Strong ability to control funds and effective control of investment risks. (If you don't understand, watch other videos or articles)

Disadvantages: it is difficult to obtain the highest rate of return. (Lower risk will inevitably lead to limited benefits)

Conditions for profit from fixed investment:

For example, in 2020, the fund's fixed investment ranking, the income in the past year exceeded 50%.

By the way, the income of smart fixed investment is higher than that of ordinary fixed investment, but the premise of smart fixed investment is that you can hold it for a long time. If you always plan to have redemption operation at any time, the investment brought by ordinary fixed investment will feel better.

Current situation of investors: not many people simply do it, most of them will have nothing to do to make up their positions, and some people will think it is better than the classic model summarized by investment professionals for many years, so the investment results are not ideal.

4. Buy when you think it's appropriate.

This makes it difficult to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages, because the law of discovery is too arbitrary.

In fact, investment is a game of making money by rules.

Let's think about the people who have made money in the investment circle in recent years, which are out of rhythm? For example: real estate speculation, currency speculation, speculation of all kinds of things that can be speculated. ...

The secret of making money: you have money in your hand, you are bold enough, you master the heat, and you can stir-fry properly. (This is a technical job)

To sum up 1, we should consider our own conditions: make an overall plan according to the amount of funds, the use period of funds, the investment level and the investment expectation.

2, we must consider the market situation: how to make money when the market is good; When the market is bad, the practice of adding positions every day is similar to the feeling of frying yourself in an oil pan.

3. When the capital is invested at a certain pace, the suggested time limit is:

This question is a bit circuitous. Let's make it clear first. This is what my friend I want to ask:

First buy a fund with a net value of 1 yuan, assuming it is 20000 yuan. After a period of time, it rose to 1.2 yuan net worth, so I sold half of my position, leaving 1.2 million fund position, 1.2 million cash.

Next, I will continue to buy this fund every day. For example, I divide the cash of 1.2 million yuan into 20 times, and buy 600 yuan every time. Twenty days later, Man Cang became the case of this fund. As for the market value of the fund at that time, it depends on the net value of each fund at that time.

Seeing this, we can't help but ask: Why do you sell half of the fund when it rises by 20%, and then buy it back in batches every day? What's the point of this toss?

I think there is only one trend that can explain the assumption of this operation, that is, you think that after the fund rises by 20%, there will be a period of callback or shock trend. Because I was worried that this callback would be relatively large, I took the practice of lightening my position by half.

However, if you think this fund is going up, then immediately, you will continue to buy this fund by means of fixed investment, which can reduce the fund's position cost to some extent.

However, the logic of this operation is actually chaotic.

After selling, you buy in batches, which shows that you are firmly optimistic about the future of this fund. So is it necessary to do such a short-term repurchase, just to reduce a small part of the cost?

Remember, it is unwise to try to guess the short-term trend of funds. Especially when you are still optimistic about a fund in the medium and long term, there is no need to make short-term attempts to reduce positions and costs. If you are worried that this fund may face a round of decline after rising by 20%, and you don't know how big and how long this decline will last, then you can sell it in batches after the net value rises by 20%. After selling, wait for a period of time to consider, or choose another fund to invest.

When investing, you can't be swayed by considerations of gain and loss. You are afraid of wolves before and tigers behind, and you don't know how to advance or retreat.

You can't treat yourself as a fairy when investing. It is foolish to predict the trend. Only following the trend is king.

I don't think this operation is appropriate, but it also has some merits, including the following:

1: The strategy of realizing 20% take profit is quite good. It is safe to drop the bag, avoid callback and be quilted for a long time. It is said that the master will sell it.

I think it is necessary to add it every day after it is sold. If it rises too sharply in the early stage, you can continue to increase it with half the profit. At this time, the risk is too great. Just like the current market, it is very undesirable to sell and add. If you want to face the next big callback, the risks and benefits are not proportional.

Moreover, fund transactions will generate handling fees. There is no handling fee when you buy Class C, but you still have to sell it.

If the market keeps falling as it did in February this year, I think you are right to do so, and so am I.

Also, don't listen to others completely when buying funds. Other people's suggestions can only be used as reference, not blindly followed. .

I bought the pedestal in the same way as you. I click take profit and sell, and then decide to invest according to the situation. The income is good, but the principal is too small.

It is very reasonable and correct for the fund to stop making profits after it reaches 20% profit. I also operate my own fund account in strict accordance with this plan. My fund investment method is daily fixed investment, not one-time purchase, because it can use time to average the chip cost and reduce the risk level, and we must remember that in the investment process of fixed investment, there is only a stop loss.

If a fund continues to decline after its initial investment, then we should be happy, because we can buy lower chips every day than before. As long as there is no fundamental problem in the industry prospect of this fund, then we can stick to it and time will give us corresponding gains.

For example, in my fund account from last year to now, I also realized some gains through daily fixed investment, which is much more labor-saving than stocks, and it seems that the yield of this fund account is not much lower than my stock account at present. I started investing in an index fund in July last year, when it was around 3200 points. After a year of continuous investment, my cost has dropped significantly. In June, when the Shanghai Composite Index came near 3000 points again, my fund income exceeded 20%. After the profit point, I threw away more than half of my positions and left my bag for safety. You should know that the investment with a return of more than 20% a year has been very successful. You don't have to look back and forth, worrying that there will be vacancies after profit. As long as it is profitable, selling is the right choice.

However, I didn't stop the fixed investment, but started the second fixed investment on the original basis, and it may rise later, but it doesn't matter. The fund is not a place to pursue extreme profits, and more extra income depends on the stock account, and the fixed investment of the fund should be carried out in strict accordance with the "smile curve" operation idea.

At the same time, I started to invest in a securities fund every day from last year 1 1 month, and increased the investment of this securities fund after profit taking in June. This fund is more efficient. So far, it has achieved a yield of 24% in eight months. At the same time, I have begun to make profits in batches. However, due to the current high market heat, I chose not the strategy of direct full redemption, but the strategy of taking profits step by step. First of all, I must ensure that my profits can be kept.

Take profit is always right. Don't try to make every penny in the market, just keep your share. If we can take turns to ambush in another sector that has not yet started, it would be better to enjoy another harvest after making a profit ~

In fact, buying a fund is a sentence: I can stand loneliness and temptation!

This is my own experience.

Don't talk about stocks, it's tears if you talk too much. Fortunately, I didn't buy too much.

The fund has been in passive contact since 2003, and it has basically not been broken. In the past two years, I have made more fixed investments and bought less at one time.

Summarize your own lessons, try not to buy at one time, and try to make a fixed investment in the fund. Keep a low profile. not too good , not too bad But to be honest, fixed investment is basically profitable. If you hold it for more than 5 years, when you meet a cow, the income is very considerable.

As we said before, the bag is safe and the number is not money. A preset rate of return, such as 20%, will be collected when the target is reached. Now, I find this view misleading. The preset goal is too low, which makes you lose more opportunities. Then there is endless waiting, a chance to start again.

Therefore, the fund should establish the concept of long-term investment. Don't preset the rate of return, take it out if you need it, and hold it for a long time if you don't need it.

This is my opinion.

I think this method is desirable!

1. First, a fund rose by 20%. If you buy half, you can still make a profit from half of the positions. If you make a fixed investment during the period, more than half of the positions will make a profit.

2. In addition, if the fund falls after selling, you can take back the chips you sold before, but reduce the cost and get more fund shares, and then you can get excess returns when the fund rises again.

Although this method is mechanical, it can attack and retreat! Still a good idea!

I think it is ok to make a profit in this way, but is the ratio too high? I usually pay 20%, and if it keeps going up, I will pay 25%. Don't give away all the low-priced chips at once! The bull market is very unfavorable.

What we want to see most is that the fund will continue to rise after selling half. In this case, we can add a little every day and stop making profits after a while, but nothing can develop according to our own imagination.

If you encounter a decline, don't panic at all. After selling half, the risk is reduced by half. At this time, it is time to buy cheap chips, but don't add too much at a time. If you add positions at the beginning of the decline, it is very likely that your fund has not fallen to the end, because no one knows when it will stop falling. At this time, risk prevention is the most important.

In fact, investment funds are not complicated. As long as you control your position and keep rational thinking in the case of ups and downs, it is not out of reach for the fund to make money.