The talent settlement policy disrupts the property market, will the purchase restriction gap open?

Since 2019, the war for talent has been staged in many cities across the country. Nearly 30 cities have issued various talent introduction and settlement policies, many of which have been relaxed again.

Some analysts pointed out that the talent policies of most cities can be directly settled. As more and more people settle in, more and more people are qualified to buy houses, which will inevitably bring problems to the local real estate market. Make an impact.

Experts believe that one of the main reasons why housing prices have rebounded in many cities across the country in the past two years, especially in some second-tier cities, is that the new talent policy has relaxed purchase restriction policies.

Lower and Lower Talent Standards

A few years ago, only a few second-tier cities issued large-scale talent introduction policies, but now they are everywhere, from first- and second-tier cities to third- and fourth-tier cities. They are all competing for talent. At the same time, policies are becoming more and more relaxed, and the competition for talents has even evolved from a competition for labor.

According to the Beijing News, Gaobeidian City, Hebei Province recently issued the "Implementation Opinions on Supporting the Development of the Private Economy", which mentioned in terms of encouraging the recruitment of talents: "Enterprises have introduced talents with great potential. Graduates with a technical secondary school degree or above (including vocational colleges), intermediate professional and technical personnel, and skilled personnel; enterprises recruit managers according to development needs; enterprises and individual merchants that implement the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development strategy, their registration Legal representatives, department managers, shareholders, directors, supervisors and founders and heads of public welfare organizations of social groups are allowed to purchase a commercial house in our city (not allowed to be listed for trading within 3 years). ”

Gaobeidian. The city is located in the triangle area of ??Beijing, Tianjin and Baoding and is close to Xiongan New Area, making it attractive to home buyers from Beijing and Hebei. As early as May 2017, Gaobeidian City introduced a property market purchase restriction policy. For non-Gaobeidian households, they are required to provide tax certificates or social insurance payments for three years or more, and are limited to purchasing one property.

Statistical data from Centaline Real Estate Research Center shows that as of now, nearly 30 cities have issued various policies for talent introduction and settlement in 2019. Looking at the talent policies in recent years, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, analyzed that the new talent policy in 2017 mainly focused on a few second-tier cities. Entering 2018, more than 100 cities at different levels across the country have issued talent policies. By 2019, talent policies have basically blossomed everywhere. Cities that have tasted the benefits continue to increase their efforts, and talent standards have gradually lowered. To a large extent, it has begun to turn into a battle for the labor force.

Sino-Singapore Jingwei client found that in terms of academic talents, the settlement standards in many places have been reduced to technical secondary school diplomas. Since the release of the talent policy, Xi'an has attracted much attention. By the end of 2018, the number of newly settled people had exceeded 1.05 million. In February 2019, Xi'an once again relaxed the conditions for settling in. Those who graduated from secondary vocational schools (including technical schools) can settle in, and those with bachelor's degrees (including) or above are no longer subject to age restrictions.

Xie Yifeng, president of the China Urban Real Estate Research Institute, told the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client that the centralized introduction of talent policies in recent years is not only related to the increasingly fierce economic competition among cities, but also affected by the property market purchase restriction policy. He said that cities that have introduced talent and household registration policies are basically consistent with cities that implement purchase and loan restriction policies, and the numbers are also relatively consistent.

Talent policies disrupt the property market

After the rise in housing prices since 2016, first- and second-tier cities and some third- and fourth-tier cities have basically implemented purchase restriction policies. Outsiders with social security or personal income tax are blocked from the door, which can be described as a "sharp tool" to cool down the property market. However, the talent introduction and household registration relaxation policies in major cities across the country have allowed some people to bypass purchase restrictions. As talent standards become lower and lower, more people can easily obtain the qualifications to buy houses.

After graduating from graduate school in 2018, Lu Qiang (pseudonym) from Henan went to work in Shanghai. Near the end of the year, he decided to buy a property in Zhengzhou, the provincial capital. Although he did not have a Zhengzhou household registration, under the guidance of a real estate consultant, he successfully passed the talent introduction policy review with a fake labor contract and bought a house.

According to the "House Purchasing Policy for Non-Zhengzhou Household Registered Talents" in the local talent introduction policy, non-Zhengzhou registered talents who work in Zhengzhou and have a full-time undergraduate degree or above, and associate senior professional titles (senior technicians) or above, can apply in Zhengzhou For those who purchase their first self-owned commercial residence, only academic qualifications, professional titles and certifications from the Ministry of Education, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, and the employment status of the home buyer will be reviewed during the purchase restriction review. The payment deadline for social security and individual tax certificates will no longer be reviewed.

According to the sales price changes of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in January 2019 released by the National Bureau of Statistics, Xi'an's newly built commercial housing increased by 23.5% year-on-year, ranking among the top 70 cities; Xi'an in September 2018 The number of newly built commercial residential buildings increased by 6.2% month-on-month, ranking first among the 70 cities. Zhang Dawei said that judging from the cities where housing prices have risen in the past two years, most of them have issued talent policies. The rise in housing prices in Xi'an has a lot to do with the loose talent introduction policy.

Zhang Dawei believes that the talent policy has lowered the purchase limit threshold in disguise, pushing talents into the real estate market with an already tight supply and demand structure, and bringing about rising expectations. In the past two years, housing prices have rebounded in many cities across the country, especially in some second-tier cities. One of the main reasons is that the new talent policy has relaxed purchase restriction policies.

Yan Yuejin, Research Director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, analyzed on the Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client that the starting point and feedback of the talent policy are very good, which has reduced the cost of talent introduction in many cities and optimized the talent structure. Although the original intention of the policy is not to relax regulation, the effect is not much different from relaxation. Some provincial capital cities have strict home purchase policies, which may result in home buyers taking advantage of loopholes in the policies, causing housing prices to rise.

According to Xie Yifeng’s observation, judging from the cities that have recovered recently, they basically have the characteristics of issuing talent introduction policies and increasing the permanent population, registered population, and administrative population. In cities with good population conditions, their real estate markets It is expected to be the first to recover.

Should talent policies be linked to property market purchase restrictions?

Although the talent introduction policy is suspected of relaxing purchase restrictions in disguise, Xie Yifeng said that on the one hand, talent introduction and household registration reform are effective in promoting urban development and urbanization, and they also slowed down the market during the downturn of the property market. The cooling speed will prevent the property market from experiencing sharp ups and downs.

On the other hand, after talents are introduced, the reasonable housing needs of new citizens must also be met. Blindly one-size-fits-all will also compromise the talent policy. Therefore, local governments need to balance the relationship between talent introduction, household registration reform and stabilizing the real estate market.

Zhang Dawei said that talent policies should not be linked to property market purchase restrictions. Talents can be directly subsidized with housing vouchers and provided with talent apartments, instead of treating attracting talents as attracting home buyers. Yan Yuejin said that the key is to further subdivide the housing purchase policy for talents. For example, after talents purchase a house, the house is not allowed to be transferred at will, and social security must be paid for 6 months after settling in, so as to enhance the authenticity of house purchase. Xie Yifeng said that in areas where population or talents are flowing in, the supply of land should be increased, and the supply of policy housing such as affordable housing, private housing, public rental housing, and affordable housing should be increased to ensure market stability.

Recently, the official position on real estate regulation has been expressed many times. Housing is for living and not for speculation, city-specific policies, "stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices, and stabilizing expectations" have been repeatedly mentioned. Yan Yuejin analyzed that the "three stability" policy shows that subsequent control will continue. Although there is the possibility of policy relaxation, there will still be supervision when it comes to the financial system and transaction order.