China's biggest economic problem turned out to be it. How to break it?

In our view, the biggest problem in China is not the expectation of future economic development, but the gap between the rich and the poor in society, which is more serious than any economic field. According to the report of China Business News, Peking University China Family Panel Research (CFPS) has written a series of special reports entitled "China People's Livelihood Development Report 20 15", taking 14960 families in 25 provinces and cities 160 districts and counties in China as the baseline sample, to explore the current situation, differences, causes and social mechanisms of people's livelihood issues.

The report shows that in recent 30 years, the Gini coefficient of China residents' income has risen from about 0.3 in the early 1980s to over 0.45 now. According to the data of CFPS20 12, the Gini coefficient of national income is about 0.49 in 20 12, which greatly exceeds the warning line of 0.4. The degree of property inequality is more serious. The estimation results show that the Gini coefficient of family property in China has expanded from 0.45 in 1995 to 0.73 in 20 12. The top 65,438+0% families own about one-third of the country's property, while the bottom 25% families only own about 65,438+0% property. In addition to the inequality of income and property, the differences between different groups in educational opportunities and medical care are also very obvious.

Why is the gap between the rich and the poor so important? As the old saying goes, the gap between the rich and the poor is the biggest social instability factor, because the greater the gap between the rich and the poor, the slower the mobility of the upper and lower classes in society, the less opportunities the people at the bottom get, and the more social resources a few people have, so that the bottom class, which eventually accounts for the majority, will see no hope and will intensify social contradictions.

Looking at history, we will find that the historical periodic law of the rise and fall of Chinese dynasties is generally based on the changes of two factors: first, the gap between the rich and the poor in society has widened, and social wealth has been occupied by a few people; Second, famine broke out on the basis of the former, and the bottom people could not live and work in peace and contentment. When the two factors met and formed a chemical reaction, the society fell into the turmoil of the rise and fall of the dynasty. According to the periodic law of historical rise and fall, the social cost is very large. Almost every time in history, the population will be halved or even reduced in nine cases out of ten, and this social cost can't be described in words at all. Social stability is out of the question, let alone development. Therefore, for China, the most serious economic problem at present is the gap between the rich and the poor. For this problem, we mentioned it many times in my book Danger and Opportunity of Big Game in China, and gave some suggestions for solutions.

According to statistics, in 2 1 century, China ushered in a decade of rapid development, and in the process of rapid economic development, China's Gini coefficient is also rising rapidly. According to statistics, from 2003 to 20 14, China's Gini coefficient was 0.479, 0.473, 0.485, 0.487, 0.484, 0.49 1, 0.490, 0.48 1, 0.477 and 0 respectively. Looking back, the intensification of social contradictions in China began in the process of the Gini coefficient rising constantly, and this intensification reached its climax in 20 12 (don't forget that in 20 12 and previous years, we invested huge funds for maintaining stability, but the society was not stable because of maintaining stability, which was because the symptoms were not cured). Moreover, in 20 12 and two or three years before, all kinds of moths were flying all over the sky, the most typical of which was the chaos in Weibo. In the past three years, China has made targeted adjustments. The most severe anti-corruption has targeted the official center to crack down on interest groups and increased investment in people's livelihood. Therefore, the Gini coefficient is also declining, and the value of 20 14 is the lowest since 2003. Judging from the current situation, the data of 20 15 should still be declining.

In the past three years, China's social stability could not have improved so much without a series of policies to appropriately reduce the Gini coefficient. A series of people's livelihood policies combined with promoting the rule of law have achieved today's achievements. However, this does not mean that the problem of the big gap between the rich and the poor has been solved, but there is still a long way to go. It can be predicted that if China can't reduce the Gini coefficient in the next few years, the potential of China's future economic development will be restrained, which will put great pressure on China's industrial upgrading and economic restructuring.

Perhaps many people don't quite understand why the gap between the rich and the poor has such a great impact on economic development. In fact, in addition to the reasons why the Gini coefficient is too high, it will affect social stability and economic development, and there are deeper reasons from the economic point of view. What is the result of the widening gap between the rich and the poor? A few people hold too much wealth, and most people hold too little wealth. If a few people hold a lot of social wealth, their consumption can only drive a small part of social production anyway, which will inevitably lead to poor economic cycle, a large number of economic factors will not be mobilized because of insufficient wealth flow, social production will not be actively mobilized, and the economic growth rate will naturally slow down. At present, the problem of the world economy is that there is too much wealth in developed countries and too little wealth in developing countries, which leads to poor world economic circulation, and the situation in most countries in the United States and Europe is basically the same.

In the past few years, the "One Belt, One Road" strategy put forward by China and AIIB is a worldwide solution to this problem. Domestically, China has adopted a series of policies, such as expanding anti-corruption, increasing investment in people's livelihood, accelerating the increase of minimum wage, and a series of industrial upgrading and economic restructuring. Investing in people's livelihood and rapidly raising the minimum wage are both measures to accelerate the increase of the income of the lowest income earners. Last year, China began to take targeted measures to help the poor. These are actually to solve the gap between the rich and the poor. The government is taking on the responsibility of transfer payment. At the same time, a series of policies on economic restructuring, industrial upgrading and encouraging entrepreneurship and innovation are all aimed at promoting fresh hematopoietic function, accelerating the economic cycle and driving more production factors into social production. Among them, strict anti-corruption is a safeguard measure to crack down on interest groups and promote social reform.

It will take about five years to solve these problems from 20 13, but in general, results will be obtained in two years, so in fact, 20 14 has achieved results in many aspects, but many people just don't pay much attention to it. As far as GDP data is concerned, the very important reason for the slowdown is the release of local economic risks. For example, the industrial structure of the three northeastern provinces and Shanxi is unreasonable, and the economic risks of the provinces that started late in the transformation will be released in this year or two; Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Chongqing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangdong have achieved initial results because of the early start of economic restructuring. As these places are on the right track and the risks in backward areas are released, the data will gradually improve in the next few years.

In fact, the gap between the rich and the poor, social security issues, we only have a targeted deepening solution, the economy can maintain long-term vitality in the future development. In this regard, the government and society should make great efforts to promote the solution in a down-to-earth manner, because these problems are solved well, and economic development will have stamina, and all localities cannot be lazy.

For the future economy, in order to achieve greater development results, on the one hand, we must solve the gap between the rich and the poor and social security problems, on the other hand, we must stimulate the vitality of social and economic activities. If you look at China's policies in the past three years, you will find that there are a series of measures to solve the gap between the rich and the poor and social security problems, which are of great significance in stimulating social and economic vitality, especially in the market's decision on resource allocation, and promoting the deepening of market reform.

In fact, this development idea can be summarized as follows: reducing the number of low-income people and ensuring their basic livelihood; It is necessary to increase the base of the middle class and promote the improvement of social welfare level of this group; It is necessary to fully release the energy of people with innovative and entrepreneurial abilities and stimulate their enthusiasm with high returns. If the relationship between these three factors is straightened out, the social and economic development of China will enter a virtuous circle, and an olive society with two sharp ends in the middle will be formed.

Of course, this growth rate does not completely mean that the wage level of the whole society has increased so much, but is this data shocking? This is not official data, but a statistical report released by Zhaopin, which is based on the situation of the talent market. What does this mean? It means that relatively high-level talents are accelerating the flow and allocation, and there is only one reason for this acceleration: a large number of high-profit enterprises need high-level innovative talents and do not hesitate to raise their salaries substantially. This shows that these new enterprises have entered the rapid growth channel, otherwise they will not be paid like this.

From the above statistics, do you see another opportunity? Think about it. A large group of people suddenly increased their income so much. What will the money do? It must be consumption! Then, will consumer goods and service industries usher in great development? Today, the new financial fan WeChat is pushing an article about supply-side reform, which is to improve the quality of products and services. This is a huge market opportunity! In 20 14, consumption abroad in China exceeded one trillion yuan, and domestic consumption also increased rapidly. Think about it. If we find new market opportunities and new service demands, and then solve the contradictions according to such demand contradictions, will it usher in great development?

As far as macro policy is concerned, China is basically in the right direction now, but there may be flaws in details and some problems in the middle, but this does not mean that future opportunities are gone. On the contrary, the solution of the problem itself is a market opportunity. Therefore, the government has policies to solve all this, and personally, the solution is to keep up with the pace of social development, or even lead the pace of development in its own field, so as to promote the development of an olive-income society on the one hand. At the same time, individuals should strive to move towards high-income people. As far as the country is concerned, the key to this trend lies in policy mobilization; Personally, the key is how to observe, analyze, look at and act.

Read our articles, don't just watch the excitement, but also find the development opportunities around you and seize them. After all, our influence is limited, but personally, we at least hope that our comrades can live a good life, develop well and achieve satisfactory results. In fact, despite Laba, we and the chef are too busy to even have time to drink Laba porridge. Anything, if you want to achieve something, requires great efforts. If you want to complain and vomit, you can enjoy it comfortably and make achievements. How is that possible?