How will car prices change after the financial crisis?

Experiencing 2008 is a kind of fate for us. The earthquake disaster, the Olympic dream and the "capitalists pouring milk into the river" that we only saw in textbooks are all related to us this year. So close.

OPEC’s daily output, Chrysler’s employees, Dutch flower exports, Sotheby’s auction guarantees... Coastal small and medium-sized enterprises that were unable to recruit workers last year have already seen 3 million Chongqing migrant workers return home this year— —In addition to those virtual indexes, the financial crisis shows a more terrifying side in these details.

CCTV-2 has two special programs every day called "Storm on Wall Street". From the title, it seems that the crisis has nothing to do with us.

If you only look at the auto market: Toyota's global sales in the third quarter experienced negative growth for the first time since 1998. Sales at some 4S stores in Chengdu fell by more than 50% month-on-month in September. Even during the consecutive international auto shows and western Expositions also have very limited impact on actual sales.

Compared with the stock market and property market, the auto market seems to receive little attention. The central bank has injected capital, the Ministry of Finance has cut taxes, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission has improved trading rules to promote the entry of funds into the market, but the index still cannot lift its head; in order to save the property market, local governments have not hesitated to announce the use of local finances to acquire unsaleable commercial housing.

People who are confused about this may have overlooked one point: the reason why the stock market and property market need external help to save themselves is because they are investment markets and even places for speculation. The root cause of the crisis lies in these investments. Or the speculative asset bubble bursts, but innocent people will inevitably be injured when the bubble is squeezed. The purpose of "rescuing the market" is to try to avoid such accidental injuries. The car market is different. Cars do not have investment value, so there will be no bubbles caused by investment or speculation. Under normal circumstances, cars are regarded as consumer goods. When everyone is scrimping on food and clothes to prepare for the "winter", consumer goods should be the most vulnerable to impact. However, at the same time, cars are means of production, a tool for creating wealth, and can completely change necessities of life.

So, we have not seen the government bailing out the car market, nor have we seen automakers cutting prices at all costs. What we see is that car dealers are busy reducing sales costs while working hard to expand after-sales scale.

The dead leaves are blown away, but the trunk remains standing

The autumn wind sweeps away the fallen leaves, and the auspicious snow heralds a good year - these two sentences are more suitable to describe the impact of the crisis on the auto market.

When the cold wind of the financial crisis blows, those brands, products and dealers that lack core competitiveness and are already on the edge of the market will be swept away like dead leaves that have lost their attachment. In the past, when describing Chengdu’s car market as hot, people would say, “Anything with four wheels can be sold here.” However, it is inevitable for the market to return to rationality from fanaticism. It’s just that the financial crisis has brought this return earlier. At this time, relying on concepts Competing for the market with pure marketing is powerless and ineffective. The first to be eliminated are those who have "nothing but four wheels."

This applies to all market segments: Focus’s single-store sales have dropped from about 180 units per month to about 140 units before, affecting profits but not endangering survival. However, among competitors at the same level Some models are already facing the embarrassment of being delisted; Camry, Lingyu, Meng

Dior-Zhisheng, Magotan and other benchmarks for mid-to-high-end cars, although the absolute number of sales has declined, their respective market shares But it has risen instead of falling, and those like Tianlai that have never broken into the mainstream may have been completely marginalized.

The boss of a 4S store said in an interview with a reporter: "The cooling of the market is a bad thing, but it is not absolute. Because it is difficult to make money, and maybe even lose money, some people who did not have it before It is a good opportunity to solve the problems that have been exposed or have not been dealt with in time. From dealers to manufacturers to the entire industry, I said it during the meeting with the employees. This is called 'auspicious snow heralds a good year'. Manufacturers that survive this winter will usher in a healthier market. "

Rigid demand supports the hope of the auto market

There is no doubt that both private cars and housing have rigid demand. The rigid demand for housing has been suppressed by excessively high housing prices - when most people regard buying a house as a "dream", this rigid demand cannot be transformed into actual consumption power. In this regard, cars from 20 years ago are the best example. Today's private car prices are very reasonable - you can buy a standard sedan for 39,800.

This kind of rigid demand without price barriers will not be suppressed for a long time, and the current thin sales in the auto market are temporary. In other words, the auto market will recover much faster than other markets.

The reporter learned during the interview that consumers who are now in a wait-and-see mood are often buying cars for the second time. "Let's just drive for a while and then change cars when the situation improves." their mentality. Most consumers who buy a car for the first time postpone the purchase of a car for one to two months, or reduce part of their budget, but their decision to buy a car does not change.

The auto market has another unique "rigid demand": after-sales service. The number of private cars in Chengdu ranks among the top three in the country. The huge number of cars supports the after-sales output of dealers, making up for the impact of declining sales on operations. It is precisely because of this that dealers who have always attached great importance to after-sales service management are much more calm when facing crises, while dealers who are accustomed to playing tricks quickly fall into trouble, and some even reach the edge of bankruptcy.

Looking at the financial crisis in a different light brings people back

When Wall Street suddenly "collapsed" and the short-term panic after the outbreak of the financial crisis gradually passed, people discovered that a financial crisis actually helped We have found a lot of long-lost happiness.

My entertainment after get off work has decreased, and I have discovered that I can laugh so happily while lying on the sofa with my family watching TV; I went to the supermarket to buy things on the weekend, and I found that the queue in front of the checkout was much shorter than usual; I realized that Unconsciously, they began to save money, but the numbers on their pay slips remained unchanged; the falling housing prices allowed couples in love to own their own homes in advance... Oh, and the hundreds of thousands of private car owners in Chengdu looked like they were falling. 50% of crude oil futures are filled with joy and hope that the oil price will return to the good old days of two years ago, when it cost 150 yuan to fill a tank. Let us happily look forward to spring flowers blooming in this warm winter.