Solar power generation, is the trend good now?

Driven by European market demand, China's photovoltaic industry started around 2005. In the past ten years, it has achieved leap-forward development from scratch and from existence to strength, and established a complete market environment and supporting environment. It has become one of the few strategic emerging industries in China that can participate in international competition at the same time and reach the international leading level. This paper mainly combs the industrial chain, development status and competition pattern of photovoltaic power generation industry in China.

Major listed companies in photovoltaic power generation industry: At present, the major listed companies in domestic photovoltaic power generation industry are Poly Kangming (03800. HK), Zhonghuan (002 129), Longji (6010/2) and Tongwei (600438).

The core data of this paper: photovoltaic installed capacity, power generation cost and competition pattern.

General situation of industry

1, definition

Photovoltaic power generation is a technology that directly converts light energy into electric energy by using photovoltaic effect of semiconductor interface. Photovoltaic power generation systems are mainly divided into two categories, one is centralized, such as large-scale northwest ground photovoltaic power generation systems; One is distributed (bounded by >: 6MW), such as photovoltaic power generation system on the roof of industrial and commercial enterprises and photovoltaic power generation system on the roof of residential buildings.

After years of development, the application scope of solar photovoltaic power generation in China has gradually expanded, from solar power supply for household users to communication/communication, as well as many fields such as petroleum, ocean and meteorology.

2. Industrial chain analysis: After the layout is completed, the silicon wafer has shown a duopoly pattern.

The industrial chain of photovoltaic power generation is mainly composed of upstream raw materials related to photovoltaic cells, including monocrystalline silicon and polycrystalline silicon; The middle reaches are mainly battery chip and battery component manufacturers and system integration enterprises; Downstream is the application field of photovoltaic power generation, including distributed photovoltaic power generation and centralized power station.

At present, the upstream polysilicon and monocrystalline silicon production enterprises mainly include Poly Keming, Longji, Tongwei and Zhonghuan. However, silicon wafer manufacturers have shown a duopoly pattern. China solar silicon wafers occupy most of the global market share, while in China, the mainstream manufacturers are Longji, Zhonghuan and Zhongjing, and the production capacity pattern is still highly concentrated. In 2020, the foreign sales scale of Zhonghuan and Longji silicon wafers will be about 65.438+0.6829 billion yuan and 65.438+0.5.1300 million yuan respectively.

The manufacturers of battery chips and components in the middle reaches mainly include Tongwei, Longji and Jingao. The inverter manufacturers in photovoltaic power generation system mainly include enterprises such as sunshine power supply; Participating in system integration are Yijing Optoelectronics and Zhengtai. Some enterprises, such as Longji Co., Ltd., have basically formed a complete photovoltaic power generation industry chain from monocrystalline silicon to components to photovoltaic operation of power stations.

Industrial development course: the photovoltaic industry has achieved leap-forward development from scratch and from existence to strength.

Driven by European market demand, China's photovoltaic industry started around 2005. In the past ten years, it has achieved leap-forward development from scratch and from existence to strength, and established a complete market environment and supporting environment. It has become one of the few strategic emerging industries in China that can participate in international competition at the same time and reach the international leading level. It has also become a brand-new business card for China's industrial economic development and an important engine for China's energy reform. At present, China's photovoltaic industry ranks in the forefront of the world in terms of manufacturing scale, industrial technology level, application market expansion and industrial system construction, and has formed a complete industrial chain from high-purity silicon materials, silicon ingots/silicon rods/wafers, batteries/components, photovoltaic auxiliary materials and accessories, photovoltaic production equipment to system integration and photovoltaic product application, which has a solid foundation for moving towards smart photovoltaic.

Upstream supply: polysilicon and silicon wafers are in sufficient supply.

Since 2005, China's polysilicon industry has started under the impetus of policies, experienced overcapacity, elimination and merger, and the industry concentration has been continuously improved. The production cost of some advanced enterprises has reached the global leading level, and the product quality is mostly at the first-class level of solar energy. According to the statistics of China Photovoltaic Association, since 20 12 years, the output of polysilicon in China has been increasing continuously. In 2020, the national polysilicon output will be 4 19500 tons, up by 22.7% year-on-year.

In terms of silicon wafer production, China has an absolute advantage, with domestic production accounting for more than 90% of the global production. The silicon wafer industry has strong scale effect and high industrial concentration, and the output of the top ten silicon wafer enterprises accounts for more than 60%. In 2020, the domestic silicon wafer production will be 16 1.3GW, with a year-on-year increase of 19.8%.

Downstream development: centralized power stations are still the mainstream, and the proportion of distributed power stations is expected to increase.

According to the installed photovoltaic structure in China from 2013 to 2020, the proportion of distributed photovoltaics is below 33%, and centralized power stations are still the mainstream of photovoltaic power generation. However, the proportion of distributed photovoltaic has increased year by year since 20 16. With the country's vigorous promotion of distributed photovoltaics, it is expected that the proportion of distributed photovoltaics will still show an upward trend.

Present situation of industrial development

1, cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic: sustained and steady growth.

According to the statistics of National Energy Administration, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China has increased rapidly since 20 13 years. In 20 13 years, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China was only 19.42GW, and it has increased to 204.68GW by 20 19 years. In 20 13-20 19 years, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China increased by over 10 times. By the first half of 20021,the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China was 267.08GW.

2. Newly added photovoltaic installed capacity: 202 1 year-on-year growth in the first half of the year 12.93%.

According to the statistics of National Energy Administration, in 20 17, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China increased by 53.06GW, a record high. In 20 18, affected by the new photovoltaic policy of 53 1, the number of new photovoltaic power generation projects in various places declined, and the newly installed capacity was 44.26GW, down 16.58% year-on-year. Affected by the national photovoltaic industry subsidies, financial support and other policies, photovoltaic installed capacity will rebound sharply in 2020. In the first half of 20021,the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China increased by 13.05438+0GW, a year-on-year increase of 12.93%.

3. Photovoltaic power generation: 28 times more than 20 13 in 2020.

According to the statistics of National Energy Administration, China's photovoltaic power generation has increased rapidly since 20 13 years. In 20 13 years, the national photovoltaic power generation is only 9 1 100 million kwh. By 20 19, the national photovoltaic power generation will be 223.8 billion kwh, up 26.08% year-on-year. In 2020, China's photovoltaic power generation will reach 260.5 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 16.40%.

4. Power generation cost: It continues to decline, and the era of affordable Internet access is coming.

With the technical progress and policy support, the cost of photovoltaic power generation in China has dropped rapidly. The cost of photovoltaic power generation in 20 19 decreased by more than 40% compared with that in 20 15. Since 20021,the state has stopped subsidizing newly registered centralized photovoltaic power stations, industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic projects and new batch of onshore wind power projects, and the era of cheap internet access has officially arrived.

Note: The data is up to 20 19, and the data for 2020 has not been released.

5. Light rejection rate: The light rejection rate in Tibet and Qinghai is still high.

According to the data released by the National New Energy Consumption Monitoring and Early Warning Center, as of August 20021year, the national photovoltaic utilization rate was 98. 1%, and the light rejection rate was less than 2%. From the perspective of provinces and cities, during the period of 20021and1-August, the light rejection rate in some provinces and cities was still high, with 20.8% in Tibet and 13% in Qinghai.

Industrial competition pattern

1. Regional competition: Shandong, Hebei and Jiangsu are among the best.

According to the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity data of provinces and cities in the first half of 200210, by the first half of 200210, Shandong, Hebei and Jiangsu ranked among the top three in China, among which Shandong ranked first with the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity of 26.06GW.

Note: The above statistics exclude Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.

2. Enterprise competition: Longji shares won the first place in the list of national 10 photovoltaic enterprises in 2020.

The list of top photovoltaic enterprises in China 10 in 2020, which is counted by 365 Photovoltaic, has been released. Among them, Longji Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. ranked first, with an operating income of 32.897 billion yuan in 2065438+2009. In addition, GCL Holdings Limited, Jingke Energy Limited, Trina Solar Limited and Artes Sunshine Power Limited ranked second, third, fourth and fifth respectively.

Note: 1, the operating income in this table is the global income of key materials and equipment (components, inverters, supports and auxiliary materials) of photovoltaic related enterprises in 20 19, the global power station sales income, the global power station EPC income, the global power station design and power station operation and maintenance income; 2. This list is based on the data that 365 Photovoltaic can investigate.

Industrial development prospect and trend forecast

1. Policies continue to promote the development of the industry.

The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines the need to build a modern energy system, promote the energy revolution, build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system, and improve the energy supply guarantee capacity. Vigorously increase the scale of photovoltaic power generation, accelerate the development of distributed energy in the eastern and central regions, and build a number of clean energy bases with multiple complementary functions. During the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the proportion of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption will increase to about 20%.

On may/may1kloc-0/day, 2002, the national energy administration issued the notice on the development and construction of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in 20021year, which clearly stated that the proportion of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in the whole society in 20021year reached/kloc-0.

2. The development of distributed photovoltaics is accelerating.

Distributed photovoltaic power generation is close to the user end, which can improve the solar energy utilization rate in areas with large electricity consumption. The form of spontaneous self-use surplus electricity online conforms to the distributed characteristics of solar energy itself. Therefore, distributed photovoltaic power generation is also the inevitable trend of the development and promotion of photovoltaic power generation industry. In order to promote the development of distributed photovoltaic power generation, Zhejiang, Shandong, Jilin, Guangdong and other provinces will develop distributed photovoltaic as an important part of promoting energy transformation and write it into the 14 th Five-Year Plan.

2. In 2026, the cumulative installed photovoltaic capacity may exceed 700GW.

With the promotion of policies and the reduction of photovoltaic power generation costs, photovoltaic installed capacity will continue to climb. According to the forecast of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the average installed photovoltaic capacity in China will be 70-90GW. In order to achieve the peak of carbon dioxide emission in 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060, photovoltaic industry will become one of the new energy industries with long-term and rapid development. Based on this, it is predicted that the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation industry in China may be between 673-793GW in 2026.

The above data comes from the Analysis Report on Market Foresight and Investment Strategic Planning of China Photovoltaic Power Generation Industry by Forward-looking Industry Research Institute.