With a population of over one million, how can Guangdong become the first fertility province-Xinjing think tank?

Shenzhen Qianhai Shenzhen-Hong Kong Modern Service Industry Cooperation Zone. Figure/Xinhua News Agency

There is a classic line in the hit drama "The Story of Hot Mom", "The most beautiful sentence I hear now is: Let me help you with your children for a while."

In recent years, the population problem has increasingly become a hot spot of social concern.

Following the release of 202 1 population data by the National Bureau of Statistics, 202 1 birth population data were released one after another in various places.

According to the statistics of local statistical bureaus, as of April 3, 23 provinces have released the birth population data of 202 1, of which Guangdong, Henan, Shandong and Hebei provinces have a birth population of more than 500,000.

It is noteworthy that in 202 1 year, the birth population in Guangdong was 1 18.3 1 10,000, and it was also the only province with a birth population exceeding 1 10,000.

The most populous province

Guangdong, China's largest province in economy, is also the largest province in resident population.

In 202 1 year, Guangdong's GDP was 12.4 trillion yuan, making it the first province to break through 12 trillion yuan.

On the other hand, according to the statistics of Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics, in 20021year, the permanent population of Guangdong reached 654.38+26.8 million, surpassing Shandong (1.01.70 million), Henan (98.83 million) and Jiangsu (85.054 million).

In terms of scale, the total resident population in Guangdong is close to 654.38+0.27 billion.

In addition to ranking first in China, even among the major economies in the world, the number of permanent residents in Guangdong can be among the best.

According to the data released by the Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, as of June 2020, 65438+ 10 1, the total population of Japan was 65438+262 million. According to the data of the United Nations, the population of Japan ranks 1 1 in the world, which is the first time that Japan has fallen out of the top ten since the comparative data of 1950.

According to media reports, it is estimated that the number of Japanese born in 20021year will be greatly reduced. This also means that the total population of Guangdong will probably surpass that of Japan in 202 1 year.

Although the number of permanent residents is still high, the number of births in Guangdong last year was also the highest in the country.

According to media statistics, the population born in Guangdong in 2002 1 18.3 1 10,000 people. Among the provinces that have published birth population data, Guangdong ranks first, and it is the only province that exceeds 1 10,000.

In terms of the number of births, Henan and Shandong ranked second, with 793,000 and 750,400 respectively. In addition, the number of people born in Hebei has also exceeded 500,000, reaching 533,000.

In addition to the birth population of more than 500,000 in four provinces, the birth population of Guangxi, Jiangsu, Hunan, Guizhou, Zhejiang and Yunnan in 20021year was between 400,000 and 500,000.

While the birth population exceeded one million, Guangdong's birth rate and natural growth rate also maintained a high level. In 202 1 year, the birth rate and natural growth rate of Guangdong were 9.35‰ and 4.52‰ respectively.

In contrast, the natural population growth rate of Jiangsu, the second largest province in economy, was-1. 1‰ last year, thus setting a record for the first time since the 1950s.

As a major coastal economic province, Zhejiang's birth rate and natural growth rate are only 6.90‰ and 1.00‰.

However, Zhejiang has surpassed Guangdong in the increment of resident population. Last year, the resident population in Zhejiang increased by 7 1.7 million, exceeding the increase of 604,000 in Guangdong. This is the first time that Zhejiang has surpassed Guangdong in this indicator.

Behind the "fertility" is a high fertility will.

Behind the far-ahead birth population is Guangdong's high fertility will.

Except for the birth rate of 9.35‰ in 20021year, before the epidemic, the birth rate in Guangdong in 20 19 was as high as 12.54‰, far higher than the national average 10.48‰.

Xinjing think tank combed the data of birth population of cities in Guangdong Province in 20021year, and found that among the cities with published data, Guangzhou ranked first with the registered population of 1 18000, and Shantou's annual birth population reached 76300, with a birth rate as high as 13.2‰. The annual birth population in Meizhou is also nearly 50,000, which is 49,900.

However, the birth population of cities in Guangdong Province also shows a trend of "differentiation". Except for the provincial capitals of Guangzhou and Chaoshan, other cities have a large birth population.

For example, although the birth rate in Dongguan last year was as high as 12.03‰, the birth population was only 32,200. The birth population of Jiangmen and Yangjiang last year was only 34,30010.93 million, respectively, and the birth rates were even lower than the provincial average, 8.54‰ and 7.42‰ respectively.

Since the reform and opening up, a large number of people have poured into Guangdong from all over the country, and the saying that "East, West, North and South, Guangdong will make a fortune" is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people.

In Guangdong, on the one hand, Chaoshan and other places have higher fertility willingness, on the other hand, Guangdong has the largest inflow population, mainly young and middle-aged, with a large population of childbearing age.

Last year, Yang, then director of the Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics, said that the continuous expansion of the floating population outside the province has effectively promoted the rise of the total resident population in Guangdong.

According to the "Seventh Census" (data from the seventh population census), among the permanent residents in Guangdong Province, the inflow population from other provinces (more than half a year) reached 29,62210,000, an increase of 8 1 0,234 compared with 20 10, with an average annual growth rate of 3.26%.

The net migration of household registration outside the province has also maintained a high level. 10, the net immigrant population in Guangdong province has reached 3 120200. In terms of the distribution of migrants in Guangdong, in addition to neighboring Hunan and Guangxi, Henan, a major labor province, is also one of the main sources of migrants in Guangdong.

Feng Wenyuan, deputy director of the Henan Provincial Bureau of Statistics, said earlier that in 2020, the population of Henan Province flowing out to other provinces reached 65,438 +0.665438 +0.009 million, of which Guangdong accounted for 2.77 million. Followed by Zhejiang 2.47 million, Jiangsu 2.2 million, Shanghai 6.5438+0.34 million, Beijing 6.5438+0.27 million.

It is noteworthy that the Land Spatial Planning of Guangdong Province (202 1-2035) proposes that by 2035, the permanent population of Guangdong will reach 6,543.8+3 billion.

This also means that there will be at least 3 million more people in Guangdong Province in the next decade. This year, the permanent population of Guangdong has increased by 604,000. According to this growth trend, the permanent population of Guangdong will reach 65.438+300 million by 2035.

On April 24th, 20021,Shenzhen held the China International Talent Exchange Conference and the Returnee Talent Recruitment Conference. Figure/Xinhua News Agency

The population structure is relatively young.

Guangdong is also one of the provinces with relatively young population structure.

The data of "Qipu" also shows that among the permanent residents in Guangdong, the population aged 0- 14 accounts for18.85%; 15-59 years old accounted for 68.80%; The population aged 60 and above accounts for 12.35%, of which the population aged 65 and above accounts for 8.58%.

In contrast, the population over 65 in Jiangsu and Shanghai has exceeded 16%. According to international standards, these two places have entered a deeply aging society.

Nationally, Guangdong's population aged 65 and over accounts for 8.58%, ranking third from the bottom in the country, which is 4.92 percentage points lower than that of the whole country (13.5%).

It can be said that compared with the national average, Guangdong's population structure is still relatively "young", and Guangdong is still far from deep aging.

On the other hand, the population aged 0- 14 accounts for 18.85%, which is higher than the national level of 17.95%, and the advantage of "demographic dividend" is also prominent.

It is not difficult to find that the overall population situation in Guangdong is good, the natural population keeps growing, and the population in Guangdong keeps growing steadily.

Lu Zeng, deputy dean of the School of Economics and Social Research of Jinan University, pointed out that Guangdong now enjoys a demographic dividend, mainly because more young people are flowing in. However, with the adjustment of industrial structure, if we want to turn it into a "talent dividend" in the future, we must find ways to attract highly skilled labor.

In order to attract young people to flow in, Guangdong, like many other places, is gradually relaxing its settlement policy.

On February 20th, 2002112, "Guangdong New Town Planning Notice (202 1-2035)" was officially issued, proposing to adjust and improve the settlement policies of Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and encouraging the central city and suburban new areas to adopt differentiated settlement policies.

Previously, Jiangmen, Huizhou and other places in the province have issued documents, proposing to fully liberalize the settlement restrictions, cancel the settlement restrictions such as insurance requirements, years of residence, and years of employment, without attaching any conditions, and implement the "zero threshold" access policy according to the household registration method.

However, we should also see that Guangdong's economic, industrial and population centers are all in the Pearl River Delta, and its population appeal to some cities in "non-Pearl" areas is relatively limited, so the "Matthew effect" of population concentration in core cities can not be ignored.

In the long run, the advantages of population size, birth population and young population will become important factors for Guangdong's sustained economic growth.

Cha Zhiyuan, a researcher at Xinjing Think Tank

Editor Li Xiaoxiao

Intern fund

Proofread Lin Zhao