Will the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States lead to a decline in house prices?

Although Lehman's investment in China's real estate sector is small, it coincides with the delicate period of domestic real estate. The collapse of Lehman and the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States had a great impact on China real estate.

In 2004, Lehman and Morgan Stanley Real Estate Fund joined hands to participate in the second phase of Shanghai Yongye Apartment developed by Shanghai Yongye Group, each holding 25% of the shares. Lehman Brothers first tested the China real estate market.

At the end of 2004, Lehman started to cooperate with China Shipping Real Estate and set up a small-scale real estate development fund. The two sides each invested 50 million US dollars to develop a small project of 65,438+10,000 square meters in Longgang, Shenzhen.

In June 2006, Lehman teamed up with a listed company in Hong Kong to set up a strategic capital investment company, and photographed Fuhai Commercial Building in Hongkou District, Shanghai at a price of 4160,000 yuan. This is an unfinished project in recent 10 years, and it has been auctioned three times.

June 5438+February 2007, Lehman injected US$ 200 million into Tianjin Sunac Group, intending to acquire 35% of the latter's shares. To this end, Sunac has also formulated a three-year listing plan.

Lehman's last real estate investment was in May 2008. Alam, a subsidiary of Lehman Brothers, joined hands with China Railway Second Bureau, a A-share listed company, to set up a joint venture company in Chengdu. Lehman contributed about 654.38+0.5 billion yuan, accounting for 49% of the joint venture company.

It is widely believed in the industry that the real estate projects invested by Lehman in China will definitely be sold. After the collapse of Lehman, Sunac and China Railway Second Bureau both claimed that they were not affected.

Chen, vice president of Sunac Group, said: "We are completely unaffected. The question is just who will clean up their debts. " However, among Lehman's many projects, Sunac may be the most affected. Because Sunac had hoped to catch up with Lehman's tree and make an initial public offering in Hong Kong before the end of 2008, raising $200 million. But now this listing plan may be postponed. China Railway Second Bureau said that Lehman's money had arrived. Alam is just an affiliate of Lehman. Therefore, the bankruptcy of Lehman does not mean the bankruptcy of Alam. In addition, Alam invested in the joint venture company in cash, and the specific management and development were operated by China Railway Second Bureau, so Lehman went bankrupt and the joint venture company of both parties was not greatly affected.

Shou Bainian, executive vice chairman and chief executive officer of Greentown China, explained that Lehman's sudden bankruptcy filing had an incalculable impact on Greentown China.

/kloc-in September, 2008, Honglong Holdings, a real estate company that started in Shenzhen and listed in Hong Kong, issued two announcements in succession, confirming the fact that Lehman held shares in the company, but the shareholding ratio was less than 13% as rumored by public opinion, about 60 million shares, accounting for 5.83% of the company's issued shares. According to the announcement, the company's current operating and financial conditions are normal, and six projects including Shenzhen Yifeng Plaza are being promoted.

Analysts pointed out that as one of the shareholders, Lehman's bankruptcy will not have much impact on the entity operation of Honglong Holdings. Next, the shares held by Lehman Brothers will seek to be sold, which is only a shareholder change for Honglong Holdings. But in the short term, the bankruptcy of Lehman will have a great impact on the stock price of Honglong Holdings.

The industry believes that the global recession has led overseas investment institutions to sell their projects in China, which will eventually affect the domestic real estate market, especially the office market.

It is said that the American financial crisis will temporarily slow down the domestic office demand. If the financial crisis continues to worsen, this impact will be transmitted from the financial industry to other industries, which may be followed by a decline in corporate performance and layoffs. The pace of further expansion of enterprises will slow down and the new demand for office space will be greatly affected.

Li Wenjie, managing director of Zhongyuan Real Estate North China, revealed that the recent feedback is that the office demand of customers is slowing down. Slower demand means higher vacancy rate, which may reduce office rents and prices in the future.

An industry insider said that the impact of Lehman's collapse on China's real estate is not so direct, but the chain reaction and market confidence caused by it may have an impact.

Recently, the foreign investors who "do more" in the real estate market in China have changed, and the news that many overseas investment institutions want to transfer real estate has made the market speculate constantly. For China real estate, which is struggling in the downturn, the impact of foreign selling is not too serious, but market confidence may be disturbed.

Investment banks sell real estate in China.

In March and April, overseas investment banks wanted to take advantage of the downturn in mainland real estate to look for high-quality projects everywhere, and their willingness to buy was very strong. Recently, the news that several major overseas investment institutions are eager to "ship" in the property market has attracted attention.

Since Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy protection, it has been reported that major overseas investment institutions plan to sell their properties in China in the real estate market, the main battlefield for foreign investment in China.

Shortly after Lehman filed for bankruptcy, there were rumors that Lehman intended to transfer its equity in Fuhai Commercial Building, a commercial building on Sichuan North Road in Shanghai. The Impact of American Economic Crisis on China

In February 2007, Lehman joined hands with the capital strategy and spent 450 million yuan to win Shanghai Hongkou Fuhai Commercial Building by auction. Later, after renovation, the building is now rented out again in the name of promotion of Shengbang International Building.

In China's real estate sector, Lehman's investment has just started. In February last year, Lehman injected US$ 200 million into Tianjin Sunac Group to acquire a 35% stake in the latter. In May this year, Lehman teamed up with China Railway Second Bureau, a A-share listed company, to set up a joint venture company in Chengdu. Lehman contributed about 654.38+0.5 billion yuan, accounting for 49% of the shares of the joint venture company.

In addition, Lehman also holds about 65,438+03% of Hong Kong listed company Honglong Holdings, which is mainly engaged in the development and leasing of mid-range real estate projects in Guangdong Province.

According to the interim results announcement of Greentown China, the number of ordinary shares of Greentown China held by Lehman is11418242 (L) and 38,462,275 (S), respectively, accounting for 7.44% and 2.5 1% of the equity of Greentown China. The letter (L) stands for good position and the letter (S) stands for short position.

Since Greentown China announced its interim results in 2008, Lehman's shareholding ratio has declined. According to the data of HKEx, Lehman currently holds 6.65% interest in Greentown China.

It is worth mentioning that the overseas investment institutions that are bearish on the China real estate market are not limited to Lehman Brothers in crisis, and Morgan Stanley seems to be the main force of selling.

Residential buildings acquired by Morgan Stanley from 2003 to 2006, such as Jinlin Tiandi in Shanghai, Lujiazui Central Apartment and Huashan Xiaduyuan, are all waiting for sale. It is said that Morgan Stanley's real estate fund has also started to sell properties in Hong Kong, including five serviced apartments and Yingzhi Building in Central. It seems that I am not interested in the 9% stake in Shanghai World Financial Center, the tallest building in the world.

Recently, some foreign investment funds began to look for buyers through intermediaries, ready to sell the property assets they bought in Shanghai before. Among them, Citibank plans to sell two high-rise small apartment buildings in Minhang Caohe Jingyuan; Merrill Lynch's projects, including the development of Nanjing West Road, are looking for buyers; Singapore Ascott Group, the world's largest serviced apartment operator, is planning to sell some previously acquired projects; Macquarie Australia also intends to sell some of its apartment projects in Shanghai. ...

According to incomplete statistics, since 2003, several overseas investment institutions have entered the real estate market in China, collecting high-quality projects everywhere, and the purchase amount has exceeded 35 billion yuan. Market participants estimate that due to the continuous rise in house prices in recent years, the market value has risen several times so far, and the estimated total market value is about 654.38+000 billion yuan.

Insiders pointed out that for international investment institutions on Wall Street, the urgent task is to sell real estate to collect funds and seize cash to wait for future investment opportunities. The problem is that the collective selling of overseas investment institutions, in turn, further affects the confidence of the market. In the case of further deep decline in confidence, its withdrawal will be extremely difficult.

In fact, the attempt of overseas investment institutions to sell real estate is not smooth. For example, Morgan Stanley intends to sell its Shanghai Jinlin Tiandi in the first half of this year, but after more than three months, there is still no suitable buyer to take over.

As for the main reasons that affect the overseas investment institutions in China property market to start shipping, they focus on two points: the expectation of China real estate is negative, so they seek to cash out; Because the financial crisis itself is difficult to protect, I hope to recover the funds and go back to my hometown to put out the fire.

Chen Limin, business development director of Jones Lang LaSalle in China, said that some overseas investment institutions mainly consider solving their own difficulties, while others are eager to cash out because they see that the market fundamentals are not as good as before. Overseas investment institutions are all profit-driven, and it is normal to choose to settle down when the real estate has appreciated.

It is worth mentioning that some trends of overseas investment institutions in the most economically active areas of China have attracted high-level attention. It is reported that relevant persons from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development recently went to Shanghai for investigation, mainly aiming at the current investment trend of foreign capital in the real estate market.

According to industry insiders, this survey is based on the fact that overseas investment institutions including Morgan Stanley and Citigroup have started to sell properties in Shanghai; On the other hand, the property market in China is declining, and the argument that foreign investors are buying real estate at the bottom appears from time to time. In order to understand the actual situation of foreign capital operation, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development began to investigate Shanghai, where overseas capital is the most active. affect

China Investment and Finance Network reported in 2008-10-122: 22:17.