The new mortgage interest rate policy is implemented today! One city, 6 yuan, increased its monthly payment.

At present, there are hundreds of thousands of new housing loans every month in China, and the stock is as high as more than 60 million. It can be said that the change of mortgage interest rate is related to thousands of households.

Every time Bian Xiao (micro-signal: nbdnews) noticed, according to the announcement previously issued by the central bank, the new commercial personal housing loan interest rate (10.8) released today was formed by adding the LPR of the corresponding period in the latest month as the pricing benchmark.

According to the Chengdu Business Daily, the relevant person in charge of the Chengdu Branch of the People's Bank of China said that the new mortgage interest rate is more market-oriented, and banks will set prices according to factors such as risk prevention and control and personal credit risk. In the future, the floating rate of mortgage interest rate finally determined by everyone may be different, which also reflects the principle of policy-making due to the city.

1、

Mortgage interest rate "change anchor" landed today

On August 20 this year, the interest rate marketization reform went further. After the reform of LPR formation mechanism, the first quotation was announced, 1 year was 4.25%, and over 5 years was 4.85%. The quotation published for the second time on September 20th shows that the term of 1 year is 4.20%, and the LPR will remain unchanged after five years.

With the reform of LPR, the interest rate of individual housing loan has also changed greatly.

On August 25th, the central bank issued the announcement 12 (2019) in 2008, saying that since June 8th, 10, the new commercial individual housing loan interest rate was formed by adding the LPR of the corresponding period in the latest month as the pricing benchmark. The interest rate of the first home loan shall not be lower than the LPR in the same period, and the interest rate of the second home loan shall not be lower than the LPR plus 60 basis points in the same period.

"Cut off the old and the new" is another focus of this interest rate reform. In the announcement at that time, the central bank stated that the commercial personal housing loans issued before June 8/kloc-0 and the commercial personal housing loans signed but not issued were still implemented according to the original contract.

The relevant person in charge of the central bank explained that the announcement is mainly aimed at the newly released personal housing loan interest rate, and the existing personal housing loan interest rate is still implemented according to the original contract; Compared with before the reform, the interest expenses of households applying for individual housing loans are basically unaffected. Simply put, unless the central bank raises interest rates or cuts interest rates, the monthly payment of buyers who are already repaying loans will not be affected.

In addition, the central bank has made it clear that the interest rate policy of provident fund personal housing loans will not be adjusted for the time being.

2、

Is the mortgage interest rate rising or falling?

On September 20th, the National Interbank Funding Center announced the latest loan market quotation rate (LPR), of which the five-year term is 4.85%. This means that the interest rate of the first suite is not less than 4.85%, and the interest rate of the second suite is not less than 5.45%.

According to shanghai securities news, for property buyers, the biggest concern is whether the interest rate will change after "changing the anchor". Judging from the areas where LPR has announced interest rate hikes, interest rates have not changed much before and after.

Taking Beijing as an example, the loan interest rates for the first and second homes should not be lower than LPR plus 55 basis points and 105 basis points in the same period. According to the latest 5-year LPR of 4.85%, the lower limits of interest rates for the first and second home loans are 5.4% and 5.9% respectively.

This level is basically the same as the previous "old method". Previously, the interest rate of the first home loan in Beijing generally rose by 10% on the basis of the benchmark interest rate, and the second home loan rose by 20%. Based on the benchmark loan interest rate of 4.9%, the fluctuation range of 10% is 5.39%, and the fluctuation range of 20% is 5.88%.

According to the calculation of Beijing Youth Daily, taking the first home loan of 6,543,800 yuan in 25 years as an example, the repayment method of equal principal and interest is adopted. The previous monthly payment was 6075.36 yuan, and after the implementation of the new regulations, the monthly payment was 608 1.30 yuan, and the monthly loan interest increased by about 6 yuan. If it is a second suite, the previous monthly payment is 6369.86 yuan, and the reformed monthly payment is 6382.02 yuan, and the monthly loan interest is increased by about 12 yuan.

In Shenzhen, the interest rate of the first and second home loans shall not be lower than LPR plus 30 basis points and 60 basis points in the same period. Based on this calculation, the interest rates are 5. 15% and 5.45% respectively. This is not much different from the previous interest rates of 5. 145% for the first suite and 5.39% for the second suite in Shenzhen.

According to the Economic Daily, the interest rate of the first suite in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province is 80 basis points higher than that of LPR, and the interest rate of the second suite is 105 basis points higher. In Suzhou, the first suite is at least 120 basis points on the basis of LPR, and the second suite is 150 basis points.

According to Beijing Youth Daily, regarding the future trend of mortgage interest rate, Guo, a macro analyst of Xingye Research, believes that the mortgage interest rate should not change much in the short term, but in the long run, if the market's expectation of housing prices is completely reversed, the downward cycle of housing prices may be loosened, which may take a long time. At the same time, she stressed that the current trend of housing prices in first-and second-tier cities and third-and fourth-tier cities is very different, and the real estate regulation and control implemented by cities will continue in the future, and the mortgage interest rates in different cities are also different.

3、

In the fourth quarter, real estate developers "store customers' impulses"

According to the Securities Times, some real estate agents have been selling to buyers on the grounds that the loan interest rate will increase after 10 8, advocating buyers to buy a house as soon as possible. However, some property buyers seem very calm: the mortgage interest rate may rise slightly in the short term, but this increase can be said to be very small in the short term. Mr. Luo, who bought a house, said:

"I have been too busy at work recently, and I haven't had time to understand it, but I know something about the monthly supply, and I won't change my house purchase plan because of the mortgage interest rate."

Coincidentally, at present, in the traditional "Golden September and Silver 10" stage of the property market, the performance of the Shenzhen market is picking up. The data shows that 759 sets of first-hand residential nets were signed in Shenzhen last week, a sharp increase of 50.6% from the previous month. In terms of second-hand housing, last week, the city's second-hand housing transactions 1808 sets, an increase of nearly 34% from the previous month; In the previous week, except Nanshan District, the transaction volume of each district basically fell by more than 10%. At the same time, housing enterprises continued to accelerate the pace of entering the market, and the Shenzhen market added four pre-sale projects last week. According to Midland Property Statistics, there were 17 new projects in September. He Qianru, director of the National Research Center of Midland Property, said that under the wave of "Golden September and Silver 10", the supply and transaction volume of the whole city have steadily increased. It is expected that the property market will continue to maintain a steady and rising trend in June 5438+ 10.

According to china securities journal, judging from the situation of first-tier cities, despite the low popularity during the National Day, real estate developers and sales agents still actively "store customers" through a series of activities, and strive to sprint for the fourth quarter.

After the 11th Five-Year Plan, it is estimated that there will be 12 projects in Beijing, which are located in Chaoyang, Tongzhou, Changping, Shunyi, Shijingshan and Yanqing. At present, many projects have been actively "storing customers" through various means and sprinted in the fourth quarter. Some real estate developers said that at present, in the limited competition housing projects in Beijing, except for a few projects, many projects can be discounted. Under the pressure of rushing the annual sales in the fourth quarter, it is not excluded that some projects will launch "price-for-quantity".

Judging from the completion of the target, as of the end of September, nearly 40% of the housing enterprises that set the annual sales target for the year have achieved a target completion rate of over 75%, while another 40% have achieved a target completion rate in the range of 65%-75%, and the remaining housing enterprises have not achieved a target completion rate of 65%.

Kerui believes that the fourth quarter is a crucial period for housing enterprises to sprint their annual performance targets. Judging from the mid-year report of real estate enterprises, the supply nodes of most enterprises are concentrated in the fourth quarter, which will provide a strong guarantee for the performance sprint. It is believed that the overall sales scale of real estate enterprises will pick up in the fourth quarter when enterprises increase the supply of goods and strengthen marketing efforts.