The Central Economic Work Conference adhered to the principle of "housing without speculation" and proposed for the first time to explore a new model of real estate development.

For many years, we have adhered to the positioning of "housing and not speculating".

The Central Economic Work Conference once again pointed out that it is necessary to adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation.

According to the report of the Central People's Hospital, the tone of the central government's insistence on "housing and not speculating" remains unchanged, and the relevant contents have been mentioned in the Central Economic Work Conference for many years, and the general direction of real estate regulation has not changed.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that this meeting once again emphasized the positioning of "staying in the house and not speculating", which means that the basis of real estate regulation will not change, and the stability of the real estate market is still the main direction of regulation. It also means that the future property market policy will still crack down on speculation and guarantee the real housing demand, and the future fine-tuning policy will be beneficial to the just-needed.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, explained that the positioning of "housing and not speculating" was first proposed by the central government at the end of 20 16. Over the past five years, this orientation has played a positive role in stabilizing housing prices and guiding housing consumption. The meeting once again stressed that the positioning of "housing without speculation" has a new meaning in the new environment. At present, there is no support and market for real estate speculation and investment speculation. Even if the local government can relax the real estate market policy in the future, it must strictly hold this "red line".

First, explore new development models.

One of the highlights of this conference on the real estate market is that it is the first time to explore a new development model.

The report of the Central Reference Institute mentioned that the background of exploring a new development model is that after more than 20 years of rapid development of the real estate industry, the per capita housing area of urban residents in China has reached about 40 square meters, and the incremental market scale has peaked. The development model of "high leverage and high turnover" of housing enterprises in the past needs to be changed urgently. The mode of rapid expansion through high leverage and high debt is coming to an end, and the industry is changing from incremental development to stock management. In the future, housing enterprises should expand new business models and achieve high-quality development. At the same time, for local governments, the "land finance" model driven by rising house prices and land prices in the past also needs to be changed urgently.

Xu Xiaole also believes that exploring new development models will promote the transformation of the development model of housing enterprises. The development model of high turnover and high leverage formed by the long-term development of housing enterprises is unsustainable. Some housing enterprises have debt crisis, so it is necessary to adopt a combination of unblocking and blocking to speed up the transformation and upgrading of housing enterprises and prevent and resolve real estate financial risks from the development mode. In the future, real estate enterprises should explore new development models, combine the social development trend, the evolution law of housing demand and their own advantages, and participate in leasing business, community pension, renovation of old communities, property management services and other fields to achieve diversified transformation. This is an inevitable choice to prevent and resolve the development risks of the real estate industry, and it is also the only way for the real estate industry to achieve sustainable development.

Li believes that exploring new development models includes several aspects. First of all, from the past, developers in the real estate market were the only suppliers to multiple suppliers; The second is the diversification of housing types, including public rental housing, property rights and guaranteed rent. ; The third is to explore new ways of land supply, which can revitalize the stock and engage in comprehensive development with flexible term and multi-purpose without new land supply construction; Fourth, in terms of financing methods, new financing methods such as special bonds, REITs and ABS can be used to replace large-scale leverage; Fifth, commercial housing development should explore new land transfer methods, not the highest bidder, but various transfer methods such as bidding and construction drawing bidding.

Meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers.

The meeting mentioned that the commercial housing market should be supported to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers.

According to the report of the Central Reference Institute, the formulation of this meeting on supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers is consistent with the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting on February 6, 65438. It is expected that the support of credit policy for the first set of improved housing demand will continue to increase.

Zhang Dawei believes that this meeting emphasizes that meeting reasonable housing demand is based on demand side, guiding market sales to return to normal rhythm, and avoiding accidental injury to the first set of just-needed and improved demand. The development of the real estate market is to meet the reasonable needs of buyers, which is also conducive to maintaining the sustained, healthy and stable development of the real estate market.

Li mentioned that since the central government emphasized that "housing is not speculation", the expression of supporting the reasonable needs of buyers was rarely mentioned. This statement was mentioned again at this meeting. First, the problem of bubble and financialization of the property market cannot be solved in a day or two. It must be adjusted across cycles, emphasizing dynamic balance and macro-prudence. Second, we should see that China's economic development is under triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply shock and expected weakening, and real estate should not go down too fast.

Promote a virtuous circle of the real estate industry

The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry because of the city's policy.

The Central People's Court believes that, unlike the previous formulation, the order of "virtuous circle" and "healthy development" of the real estate industry has changed. In fact, the real estate industry will develop better and healthier after a virtuous circle. At present, it is a top priority for the government to get through the circulation of all chains in the real estate industry. Due to the city's policy, both funds and policies will strive to promote the real estate industry to achieve a virtuous circle.

Zhang Dawei also believes that in order to promote the virtuous circle of the real estate industry to the policy side, efforts should be made to prevent the vicious circle risk of sales and credit, and ensure the stable and orderly market expectation. The rapid expansion of the real estate industry in previous years mainly relied on the strategy of "quick turnover+high leverage", which was unsustainable. To achieve a virtuous circle, it is necessary to reduce the leverage of enterprises, improve the supervision of pre-sale funds, ensure the stable construction of developers and the stable development of the market, and ensure that credit will not be too tight and will not be loose again.

Xu Xiaole further explained that the virtuous circle of the real estate industry needs two necessary foundations. First, it is necessary to control the mine explosion risk of real estate enterprises and prevent the risk of local enterprises from being transmitted to the system; Second, the real estate market should operate. He believes that under the guidance of the virtuous circle of the real estate industry, the financial policy that was too tight in the early stage will be structurally adjusted. On the one hand, moderately relax the control over the financing of housing enterprises, rationally allocate real estate development loans and M&A loans, and ease the debt pressure of housing enterprises; On the other hand, the housing credit environment has improved, focusing on meeting the mortgage demand of buyers for the first suite and improved housing.

Li also mentioned that promoting a virtuous circle of the real estate industry is the focus of the real estate market in this meeting. This is the third time that the management or important meeting mentioned the virtuous circle of the real estate industry, which means that the current industry cycle is not smooth and affects the healthy development of the industry. First, the scale expansion mode of adding leverage and rapid turnover does not meet the demands of high-quality development of the industry; Second, the cycle mode of high land price-high housing price-high leverage is not conducive to expanding domestic demand and achieving the goal of double-cycle prosperity; Third, it is difficult to recycle new houses and second-hand houses reasonably, and it is difficult to make full use of existing resources, which does not meet the goal of "double carbon".

To promote the virtuous circle of real estate industry is to remove the above-mentioned problems that hinder the smooth circulation. Li said, "including controlling the disorderly rise of land prices from the source, controlling dependence, and thus controlling housing prices; Control the front-end land purchase financing and implement the long-term financial mechanism; Adjust housing supply institutions, such as increasing the supply of affordable rental housing and revitalizing existing resources. "