Opportunities and Challenges of China Six Articles

First, the impact of the "Six Articles of the State" policy on the real estate market will be mainly reflected in the changes in consumers' choice psychology.

In recent years, the sales price of the real estate market has soared, making the real estate become the focus and hot spot of the government, the people and the public opinion. The basic housing needs of ordinary people have long been ignored by the real estate market, which has become a prominent social problem at present. National macro-control measures have great influence on public opinion and psychological expectation.

In 2005, the promulgation of "National Eight Articles" affected the general acceptance psychology of consumers in the real estate market to a certain extent, and "bearish" once became the mainstream voice in the market; Although the "National Eight Articles" did not form the result of stabilizing "house prices" in the end, public opinion cannot be violated. On the surface, the promulgation of "National Six Articles" did not further put forward specific measures to "suppress housing prices", but compared with the "National Eight Articles" in 2005, it has put forward very specific quantitative indicators to adjust the supply structure of real estate products, and at the same time, the central government cannot allow its own macro-control policies to fail again.

From the perspective of policy makers, it is impossible for the real estate market, especially the "house price", to continue to rise sharply; From the perspective of public opinion and the general public, the expectation of the market outlook will inevitably further increase the psychological expectation of "bearish". In the short term, we may place our hopes on the new "national six articles"; If the implementation effect of Article 6 is not obvious, it may be hoped that the state will introduce stricter macro-control measures in the long run. Once "bearish" becomes the mainstream public opinion and general psychological expectation, the rising trend of real estate prices will probably be reversed, but it is difficult to predict whether this change in psychological expectation will really affect the overall rising trend of the current real estate market sales price as expected by policy makers. Because in the process of this game, it is difficult to accurately predict the reaction of local governments at present.

Second, the impact of the "National Six Articles" policy on existing projects on sale and under construction will not appear immediately.

Because the "planning-supply" cycle of the real estate industry is relatively long, the current policy can not immediately produce substantial control effects on the existing market and the product supply structure in the market in a short time. On the contrary, the market trend forecast provided by "National Six Articles" may actually raise the price of existing products in the real estate market, because the information of "70% building area, 90 square meters" may give the impression that the existing products exceeding this standard will be in short supply in the future, thus providing a realistic market public opinion basis for the price increase of this part of existing supply.

Third, after the introduction of the "Six Articles of the State" policy, the price change trend of the real estate market may first appear an upward gap, and then enter a stable, sustained and slightly rising trend. In the discussion, everyone thinks that the real estate market is affected by the "six national policies", and the effective supply of the existing market will become the expected product shortage in the future. The price increase is inevitable, and the key is the extent of the increase. With the gradual change of the product structure supplied by the mainstream market and beginning to affect the real estate market price, the increase of the sales price of real estate products will tend to slow down to a certain extent, but the trend of the mainstream price change in the market will not be reversed. The reason is that Article 6 of the State Council emphasizes not only the adjustment of product structure, but also the "intensive and economical use" of land, which will inevitably lead to obvious changes in the volume ratio requirements of new land supply compared with the past, and this change will lead to changes in the property types of mainstream products in the existing market.

Before 2005, the plot ratio of land for residential projects sold was generally lower than 2. Accordingly, the mainstream residential property products supplied by the market are mainly multi-storey, and some projects are small and high-rise residential decoration. If the floor area ratio is required to increase, the mainstream product supply in the market will probably evolve into small high-rise or even high-rise property, and the rising construction cost will provide the most basic and practical reason for the high price of products in the market.

At the same time, generally speaking, the sensitivity of residential consumption in second-tier cities is far greater than the sensitivity of unit price, and the supply of mainstream products is limited to a relatively fixed quota within the range of market acceptable total price. It is inevitable for development enterprises to choose the price strategy of "high unit price and low total price". From this perspective, the average selling price of the real estate market will not reverse.

Fourth, the "National Six Articles" can hardly meet the minimum housing needs of most people for quite some time.

"National Six Articles" is a policy based on balancing the interests of all parties in the face of various conflicts of interest. The actual effect of "National Six Articles" and its implementation rules will be greatly reduced due to the influence of various aspects in the implementation process. At the same time, combined with our judgment on the overall trend of housing prices, if low-income people can't afford to buy a house that meets the basic living needs today, it should be said that it is difficult to realize the ideal of "owning their own house" in the short term.

5. A national macro-control policy like "Six Articles of the State" will be a continuous policy for the state to regulate the real estate market in the future.

With the continuous rise of real estate market, especially housing prices, excessive housing prices have become a focus of social contradictions in China. How to solve this social contradiction strategically is actually a subject that China government is trying to explore and solve. There is no doubt about the long-term nature of macro-control policies, or the government's determination to macro-control the real estate market in the medium and long term.

Six, the "National Six Articles" will accelerate the reshuffle process of internal enterprises in the real estate industry.

The macro-control policy introduced this time is very important to limit the financial strength and credit conditions of real estate enterprises. If this policy is implemented by local governments in the process of macro-control, the process of reshuffle of real estate enterprises will inevitably accelerate. We believe that this is the most likely area for local governments to respond positively.