Stick to the bottom line of real estate regulation and speed up the construction of long-term regulation and control mechanism

Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, the real estate market was significantly impacted, and many indicators such as investment, sales and financing declined significantly. In order to alleviate the impact of the epidemic on the real estate market, local governments have recently introduced temporary support policies, some of which ended in "one-day trips" because of being questioned about the "relaxation" of regulation.

For a time, will local governments start real estate to stimulate the economy again? Will the deterioration of housing enterprise funds lead to financial risks? ..... become the focus of attention.

Many experts in the industry pointed out that the positioning of "housing and not speculating" should not be changed because of the epidemic. With the aim of "stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations", we should speed up the construction of a long-term mechanism to improve real estate regulation and control and keep the real estate market running smoothly. Experts suggest that on the one hand, it is necessary to promote the resumption of work and production in an orderly manner, encourage and support housing enterprises to take the initiative to resolve potential risks such as overdue delivery and financial constraints. On the other hand, focus on the transformation of old residential areas, hedge the decline in fixed assets investment, and accurately play the economic "regulator" role of the real estate industry.

The potential risks in the real estate market are worthy of vigilance.

The sudden epidemic has impacted China's economy, and the real estate industry has also been greatly affected. Investment, sales, land acquisition, etc. have all declined significantly. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in March 16, from June 1 010/500 million yuan was invested in real estate development in China, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%. Among them, residential investment decreased by 16.0%. Land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises10.92 million square meters, down 29.3% year-on-year; The land transaction price was 44 billion yuan, down 36.2%.

At the same time, in June and February, the sales area of commercial housing was 84.75 million square meters, down 39.9% year-on-year. Among them, residential sales area decreased by 39.2%, office sales area decreased by 48.4%, and commercial sales area decreased by 46.0%. The sales of commercial housing was 820.3 billion yuan, down 35.9%.

The recent report released by Kerry Research Center also shows that due to the forced suspension of sales activities by several sales offices during the epidemic, the overall transaction volume of 27 key cities was 2.4 million square meters, down 83% from the previous month and 77% from the same period last year. In terms of enterprises, in February, the total sales of head housing enterprises nationwide was 325.6 billion yuan, down 37.7% year-on-year, and the monthly performance of over 80% of housing enterprises declined year-on-year.

The sharp decline in property market transactions has brought potential risks to the real estate market. The first thing is that the delay in payment of sales funds will lead to a sharp increase in financial risks in the industry. According to the data, in 20 19, the proportion of sales receipts of real estate development enterprises in the actual funds reached a historical high of 49.62%, totaling 886.4 billion yuan. At the same time, due to severe financing restrictions, the proportion of domestic loans in 20 19 was only 14. 13%, the lowest in history.

On March 6, the documents disclosed by Shanghai Clearing House showed that Xinhualian Holdings became the first real estate enterprise that defaulted on its debts due to the epidemic. Han Yizhiku's research report shows that the total amount of credit bonds issued by real estate enterprises in 20 19 is 590.9.10 billion yuan, while the total amount of credit bonds due in 2020 is 746.86 billion yuan.

Insiders pointed out that not only small and medium-sized housing enterprises with relatively weak financing ability, but also some leading enterprises will inevitably face cash flow pressure and debt default risk. In fact, in order to alleviate the shortage of funds, real estate enterprises are increasing their financing efforts.

Wind data shows that in the first two months of this year, domestic housing enterprise bonds raised 248.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36%. Some housing enterprises have also issued short-term financing bonds to ease the tight cash flow. As of March 6th, 37 short-term financing bonds, including general short-term financing bonds and ultra-short-term financing bonds, were issued this year, amounting to 25.45 billion yuan, roughly equivalent to one third of the total last year.

Secondly, the sharp drop in real estate development investment may cause the subsequent imbalance between supply and demand. Affected by the sluggish sales, the supply and transaction volume of the national land market both declined in February. According to the data of Ke Rui Research Center, in February 2020, the national land transfer fee was 240 billion yuan, which was 35% lower than the 370 billion yuan in June of 5438+ 10. In addition to the increase in transaction volume in first-tier cities, the transaction volume in second-and third-tier cities decreased by about 50% compared with last month.

Thirdly, the real estate market is also facing the challenge of the interruption of the epidemic and the intensification of market risks in third-and fourth-tier cities. In addition, the epidemic also led to the postponement of some land sales, and some real estate projects could not be started and completed on schedule. The risk of delivery delay caused by the stagnation of development and construction is also worthy of high vigilance.

The short-term risks faced by the real estate market are objective, and these potential risks should be faced squarely and prevented. In fact, in recent years, many policies related to real estate regulation and control have been issued all over the country, mainly to reduce the operating pressure of real estate enterprises, including measures such as reducing the tax burden of enterprises, moderately reducing the pre-sale conditions, and accelerating turnover. Housing enterprises themselves are also actively transforming, changing their marketing models one after another, opening an online sales platform for commercial housing, and giving full play to the advantages of the online sales platform with the help of the power of the Internet platform.

Give full play to the role of the real estate industry in stabilizing the economy

As an important part of the economy, the stability of the real estate industry has a great influence on the overall economic operation. At present, it is necessary to objectively analyze the position of the real estate industry in China's national economy in the new period, adhere to the general tone of "housing and not speculating" and the goal of "stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations", accurately play its role in stabilizing the economy, and do not use real estate as a means to stimulate the economy.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in February, the real estate development boom index was 97.39. It is worth noting that the boom index 100 is the most suitable boom level, and the boom level between 95 ~ 105 is moderate.

Sheng Songcheng, Counselor of Shanghai Municipal People's Government, pointed out that if the growth rate of China's real estate investment decreases by 15% in the first quarter of 2020, the GDP growth rate caused by the downward trend of real estate investment will decrease by 0.06 percentage points. In addition, the real estate industry is different from the 42 industries classified by the National Bureau of Statistics, and the downward trend of real estate investment will also disturb the upstream and downstream industries.

This can be seen from a set of data. According to the 20 19 data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the national real estate development investment has maintained a relatively high growth rate in several major areas of fixed assets investment. In 20 19, China's GDP was 99,086.5 billion yuan, and the national investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) was 55147.8 billion yuan, an increase of 5.4% over the previous year. Among them, the national real estate development investment 132 194 billion yuan, an increase of 9.9% over the previous year, accounting for 23.97% of the total investment in fixed assets. Among them, residential investment was 9707 1 100 million yuan, an increase of 13.9%.

Sheng Songcheng pointed out that from 20 17 to 20 19, the total amount of capital formation boosted China's economic growth by 2.3, 2.2 and 1.9 percentage points respectively, with an average of 2. 13%. From 20 17 to 20 19, the proportion of real estate investment in fixed assets investment was 17.38%, 18.92% and 23.97% respectively, with an average of 20.09%. Based on this calculation, real estate investment has boosted China's economic growth by an average of 0.43 percentage points every year in the past three years.

From the perspective of related industries, the real estate industry has a long industrial chain and many related industries. If we consider the driving effect of real estate investment and consumption on other industries, the steady development of real estate industry will play a more obvious role in stabilizing investment and economy. Investment in real estate development drives the construction industry and upstream and downstream manufacturing industries such as cement, steel, non-ferrous metals and excavators; Real estate consumption not only directly drives the manufacturing industries such as home appliances, furniture, home textiles and decoration related to housing, but also obviously drives the tertiary industries such as finance, media services, Internet and property management.

Judging from the general trend of urbanization, there is still room for development in the real estate industry. With the deepening of urbanization and the flow of population, there will be housing demand, which will bring the future development space of the real estate industry. From the evolution of consumer demand, driven by improved demand and service demand, there is still potential space in the future real estate market.

Experts said that on the one hand, efforts should be made to resolve potential risks, maintain the healthy and stable development of the real estate industry, and avoid ups and downs. On the other hand, the implementation of "policy for the city" and "policy for the time" will form the focus of industry investment around the transformation of old residential areas and hedge the risk of falling investment in fixed assets. According to the data of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, there are nearly10.6 million old residential areas in China, and the investment in comprehensive renovation is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan. At the same time, the investment cycle of old residential renovation projects is short, and by filling the "short board" of service facilities, residents' consumption can be effectively promoted.

"Slow without Stimulation" and Accelerate the Construction of "Three Stability" Long-term Regulation Mechanism

The steady development of the economy and the steady and healthy operation of the real estate market are unified and consistent. All the major central conferences have reiterated the main tone of regulation and control of "staying in the house and not speculating", and the direction of regulation and control of "keeping the strength and keeping the word steady" is also very clear.

The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly pointed out that the orientation of "houses are used for living, not for speculation" should be adhered to, and the housing system with multi-subject supply, multi-channel guarantee and simultaneous rent and purchase should be accelerated, so that all people can live and live. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee clearly pointed out that it is necessary to speed up the establishment of a housing system with multi-agent supply, multi-channel guarantee and simultaneous rent and purchase. At the end of last year, the Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that it is necessary to adhere to the positioning of "houses are for living, not for speculation", fully implement the long-term management and regulation mechanism of stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations due to urban policies, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

On March 16, the National Bureau of Statistics pointed out that the orientation of "housing without speculation" has not changed, and real estate is not used as a short-term stimulus policy. In recent years, the real estate market is generally stable, and the situation of stable land price, stable expectation and stable house price has been formed.

On March 3, the People's Bank of China, together with the Ministry of Finance and the China Banking Regulatory Commission, held a symposium and teleconference on financial support for epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, which clearly put forward the requirements of adhering to the orientation of "houses are used for living, not for speculation" and "real estate is not used as a short-term means to stimulate the economy" to maintain the continuity, consistency and stability of real estate financial policies. The recently held National Conference on Banking Insurance Supervision and Management in 2020 proposed that the requirement of "no speculation in housing" should be resolutely implemented, and the supervision rules such as credit concentration should be strictly enforced to prevent credit funds from illegally flowing into the real estate sector. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission recently punished some banks that violated the laws and regulations of the real estate industry.

There is no doubt that the positioning of "housing and not speculating" will not change because of this epidemic. Giving full play to the role of real estate in stabilizing the economy is by no means treating real estate as a short-term stimulus. What needs to be made clear is that giving reasonable and necessary support to the real estate industry at present is essentially a relief measure for the real estate industry in a special period from the perspective of stabilizing China's economy, considering the real estate regulation and control objectives of "stabilizing land prices, stabilizing house prices and stabilizing expectations". The main purpose of bail-out is to prevent industrial enterprises from going bankrupt on a large scale due to operational difficulties and broken capital chains, which will lead to an unexpected decline in real estate investment, an imbalance between supply and demand in the market, and form systematic risks, thus impacting China's economic stability.

In the short term, people in the industry pointed out that in resolving financial risks, we should support the reasonable financing needs of the real estate industry, allow some real estate enterprises that are greatly affected by the epidemic to postpone repayment, speed up the loan extension, adjust the repayment plan of enterprises, and not blindly draw loans, cut off loans and suppress loans, so as to alleviate the impact of recent shrinking sales on the capital chain of real estate enterprises. In terms of stabilizing real estate investment, while ensuring the smooth supply of building materials and logistics and transportation, we should strengthen supply-side regulation, reasonably and moderately increase the supply of real estate market, and ensure the relative stability of land prices.

In the long run, the key is to implement the long-term regulation mechanism of real estate. It is necessary to adhere to the word "stability", fully implement the long-term management and regulation mechanism of stabilizing land prices and housing prices due to the city, and establish and improve real estate regulation and control systems and mechanisms such as policy coordination, regulation linkage, monitoring and early warning, and market supervision to prevent and resolve risks in the real estate market and maintain the smooth operation of the real estate market.