Traditional financing of housing enterprises has weakened and innovative financing has soared.

In 20021year, housing enterprises issued bonds by leaps and bounds. As of June 5438+1October 65438+March * *, 32 real estate enterprises have issued bonds, with an overseas bond issue amount of US$ 8.652 billion (about RMB 55.942 billion) and a domestic bond issue amount of RMB 6.5438+0.75 billion, which is a new trend since this year, but the interest rate still continues the previous normal.

65438+ 10/5, Zou Lan, director of the financial market department of the central bank, said at the press conference of the State Council Office that the growth rate of real estate loans last year was lower than that of various loans for the first time in eight years, and the central bank implemented a prudent management system for real estate finance, forming measures such as fund monitoring and management rules for key real estate enterprises.

Although in the long run, the restrictions on the real estate industry from the supply side have been implemented for many years, and the voice of financing freezing point is endless, and developers are crying out for poverty every year, in fact, the total financing of the real estate industry, especially the head company, is still increasing, but the Matthew effect is getting worse, and it is more difficult for small and medium-sized developers to get money, and the funds in the industry flow closer to the head.

In 20021year, the debt of housing enterprises was1244.8 billion yuan, which exceeded one trillion for the first time and reached the peak of debt repayment. From the policy point of view, the debt financing of housing enterprises is limited, the overall debt financing is weak, and equity financing breaks out.

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The traditional debt financing channels have been weakened.

As for the debt structure of housing enterprises in 2020, according to the data of Tongce Research Institute, the total financing of 40 typical housing enterprises in 2020 was 955.579 billion yuan, an increase of 18.95% compared with 20 19. The total financing of 40 housing enterprises was 803.322 billion yuan in 20 19 and 694.972 billion yuan in 20 18, and the growth rate of financing scale reached a new high in 2020.

From the perspective of issuance structure: in 2020, 40 typical housing enterprises issued corporate bonds of 260.38 billion yuan, down12.89% year-on-year; Domestic bank loans190.703 billion yuan, up 62.31%year-on-year; Other debt financing18103.8 billion yuan, up1.03% year-on-year; Trust loans reached 96.645 billion yuan, up 1.92% year-on-year.

These three financing methods have been the main supply channels for developers' funds for many years. Although the domestic bank loans of 40 typical real estate enterprises have increased by more than 60%, although the specific figures have not been disclosed, Zou Lan said at the press conference that the proportion of new real estate loans in various loans has dropped from 44.8% in 20 16 to 28% in 2020.

The total amount of real estate loans is decreasing, but the bank loans of head housing enterprises have increased substantially, which means that bank loans are concentrated in head companies.

On the other hand, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission also set a 40% ceiling on bank real estate-related loans, which also tightened the financing supply.

Trust, which used to be favored by developers, has been severely regulated this year, with a slight increase of 1.92%. At one time, the top 50 developers expressed their willingness to raise funds at the annual interest rate of 15%, but due to stricter supervision, this money is not easy to find in trust channels.

Corporate bonds have also declined slightly, which is related to the approval of the CSRC and also represents the tightening attitude towards financing in the real estate industry.

Generally speaking, debt financing is tightening, while the corresponding equity financing is strengthening.

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Equity financing soared? Year-on-year increase 162.79%.

In fact, the surge in 2020 is equity financing, which is understandable. After all, corporate financing is mainly divided into equity financing and debt financing.

Compared with bond financing, the advantage of equity financing is that the capital obtained does not need to repay the principal and interest, but the new shareholders will share the profits and growth of the enterprise like the old shareholders, which is to exchange space for time.

According to the data of Tongce Research Institute, in 2020, the equity financing of 40 typical housing enterprises was1709.23 billion yuan, up 162.79% year-on-year.

There are generally four modes of equity financing: equity pledge, equity transfer, capital increase and share expansion, and private equity financing. For a long time, what developers like best is equity pledge. Most A-share housing enterprises have equity pledge, which is a relatively cheap and fast financing method. Equity transfer is also the main financing force of some housing enterprises, such as Huaxia Happiness (600340, shares bar) and Sunshine City (00067 1, shares bar). Due to the restrictions of the real estate industry, it is rare to increase capital and share.

Private equity financing can't be verified because it is hard to find traces, but it is rumored that many developers are using it, but they need to be invited to enter, which is extremely closed.

After debt financing was limited, equity financing began to soar, and the spin-off listing from the second half of 2020 was extremely hot. The real estate company's split property listing will also increase a sum of money to supplement the existing funds. Some analysts said that if the current situation remains unchanged, developers will continue to spin off other sectors for listing. The typical representative is Evergrande's listing of automobiles, real estate and football in order to reduce the financial burden. In the future, the spin-off and listing of diversified housing enterprises is the general trend.

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The peak of debt repayment has reached the "trillion yuan" mark.

According to the data of RealData, in 20021year, the debt scale of real estate enterprises will reach1244.8 billion yuan, which is a historic breakthrough. According to Kerry's incomplete statistics, 95 real estate enterprises' bonds due in 20021year were 722,235,438+billion yuan, up by 22.45% year-on-year, while domestic bonds due increased by 5.77% year-on-year to 418,889 million yuan, and foreign bonds due by 5.652% year-on-year to 303,492 million yuan.

On the whole, the top 100 real estate enterprises account for most of the financing quota, and the frequent overseas bond issuance in the past few years has ushered in the peak of redemption.

Since 20 15, housing enterprises have started the normalization of high turnover and started to issue corporate bonds intensively. The issuance period of corporate bonds is generally 3-5 years, and the debt repayment period is 202 1 year from 2020.

On the other hand, after the domestic bond issuance was restricted at the end of 20 16, real estate enterprises began to issue bonds overseas on a large scale, with the bond issuance period of 2-5 years as the main force, so it will also be the peak of overseas debt repayment from 2020.

According to Ke Rui's report, with the increase of listed real estate enterprises in recent years and the increasing pressure of borrowing new ones to repay old ones, 95 real estate enterprises will issue bonds to a new level from 20/Kloc-0 to 8-2020, with the scale of issuing bonds exceeding 700 billion yuan, nearly 300 billion yuan more than that in 20 15, and the peak of debt repayment will continue in the future.

On the whole, housing enterprises are under great pressure to repay debts and operate, and more bond defaults may be born in the future.

How to face the peak of debt repayment? Some companies choose to continue large-scale financing, and funds are increasingly concentrated in head housing enterprises. The financing scale of China Evergrande, Zhongnan Construction (00096 1, shares bar), Jinke Shares (000656, shares bar), Huaxia Happiness and Vanke exceeds 50 billion yuan. Among the five companies, except Vanke and Jinke, all three red lines are successful. In particular, the financial problems of Huaxia Happiness have triggered the turmoil in the bond market, and Vanke and Jinke are also stepping on two lines, which is not optimistic.

At present, borrowing the new and returning the old is the main theme, and the demand for debt financing by head companies, especially high-debt companies, is even stronger.

Source: Tongce Research Institute

The data of the same policy research institute also shows that the funds flowing into the real estate industry are concentrated in the head, and the financing of the five major housing enterprises exceeds 370 billion yuan. Judging from the financing interest rate of enterprises, the nature of housing enterprises with strong financing ability and low interest rate is basically state-owned enterprises or central enterprises.

When God closes a door, he will open a window. Now the window of equity financing has arrived, but it will dilute the equity in the hands of real estate tycoons. How to weigh the pros and cons is the most difficult choice for developers in history.