Rongchuang Property Order Cartoon

In July, the regulation of the property market suddenly became more and more severe. From the central government to the local government, a new round of accountability and patching has begun, and restrictions on purchases, loans and supervision have all been upgraded.

Superimposed three red lines, two concentration and other regulatory policies, some people in the real estate industry said that real estate is welcoming the most severe regulation in the past few years, and the impact should not be underestimated.

Developers and the market have long felt the coolness of the policy, and real estate stocks bear the brunt, and have fallen by 16% so far this year. Now, the regulatory storm has extended to the developer's back garden-the real estate sector.

The rectification of the education department last weekend became the last straw to crush the camel. On the first trading day after the weekend (July 26th), the "reducible" sector hit a new low in the year, and the sector index almost reached a stock market crash of 20 18. However, real estate stocks have also experienced a rare plunge due to the rectification of the property market. Shimao services fell by 20%, and Country Garden services also fell by 16%.

Regulation is aimed at big real estate.

Different from the previous regulation only for the property market, this regulation is more comprehensive, aiming at the "big real estate industry chain".

On July 23, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other eight departments jointly issued a notice, focusing on rectifying four aspects: real estate development, house sale, house lease and property services.

Li, chief researcher of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, said that to establish a long-term mechanism of "stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices and stabilizing expectations", it is necessary to establish regulatory coverage covering the whole chain of development, sales, leasing and property until the real estate market is in order. In the field, establish a long-term mechanism to interrupt the idea of taking advantage of investment speculation.

Local supervision has not been relaxed. Shanghai also played a combination boxing, raising mortgage interest rates and regulating second-hand housing transactions. And continue to repair the real estate market.

On July 23, the same day that Shanghai introduced the regulation policy, Shaoxing, Hangzhou and other cities also raised prices one after another, putting a spell on the property market, and the regulation trend only increased.

However, such regulation obviously exceeds the market expectations. After the fermentation over the weekend, not only the "terrible" sector continued to be abandoned by investors on Monday, but even the property management sector, which had been on fire for two years, suffered a rare plunge.

The real estate (CITIC-1) index fell by 4.2 1% on July 26th. Even Vanke A fell 7.57%, bidding farewell to the 22nd trend of 2 1, and Poly Real Estate also fell 6.64%, closing at 10.4 1 yuan/share.

Year-to-date, the index * * * has fallen by 16.2%, just one step away from the low point of 20 18 financial crisis. No wonder the "catastrophic" sector was abandoned by investors this year.

After the announcement, real estate stocks fell sharply. By the close of July 26th, Country Garden services had dropped by 16.60%, Sunac services by 13.87%, Shimao services by 19.55%, Times Neighborhood Services by1.1%.

As can be seen from the above data, basically every family has evaporated 10%-20% of its market value, and the big brother and the little brother in the industry have not been spared. Soon Morgan Stanley made a judgment on this sudden stock market crash, and its view on the mainland property management stock industry was reduced from "attractive" to "in line with expectations".

Bank of America securities also put a question mark on this. With the mainland property management stocks about to announce interim results, the market will continue to reassess, but it is expected that the interim results will be "more surprised than happy" under many potential negative factors.

Some analysts also said that the recent downturn in real estate stocks was affected by the recent listing of small and medium-sized property management companies. Investors have doubts about the value of listed companies. The Notice further magnifies this doubt and believes that the industry will be hit by policies.

Industry differentiation will continue

The real estate industry has undergone earth-shaking changes, and investors also know about it.

The continuous decline of the "disastrous" sector, the hesitation of the real estate sector after two years of upsurge, and even the decline of the upstream and downstream industrial chains of real estate, the recent performance of the large real estate industrial chain in the capital market has been unsatisfactory.

You know, the real estate sector also experienced a big bull market for a year and a half after 20 16. Many investors have gained several times or even ten times the income of Country Garden and Sunac. These investors once had confidence in real estate enterprises, thinking that with the expansion of scale and profits, the stock price will rise forever, but now, these investors are withdrawing.

What investors see is that housing companies are constantly thundering. From Huaxia Happiness to Taihe to the recent development of Blu-ray and Xiexin, the whole industry is constantly cleaning up.

The housing enterprises that grew up in the past, such as Evergrande, also showed their true colors under the "three red lines", so that the whole industry experienced a crisis of trust. Sunshine City reported that bonds were shorted, and Sunac bought them back one after another in order to stabilize investors' confidence.

Analysts believe that after this round of adjustment, the market's concerns about the real estate industry have been excessive. This time, it is not a global and systematic risk like that in 2008, and the whole industry is dividing. The credit risk of this round of real estate can be solved by fast sales collection.

Chen Tiancheng of TF Securities pointed out that with the normalization of "policy by city" and the improvement of policy stability, the risk premium rate of the industry has decreased, and the financing end of the industry has tightened again, which may further catalyze the differentiation among enterprises.

Chen Tiancheng believes that the three red lines will profoundly change the business behavior of housing enterprises in the next three years. In the past, the performance of strong investment companies with high expected gross profit margin will be weaker than that of strong operating companies with low expected gross profit margin.

Over time, even by the end of this year, the top ten, top thirty and top fifty real estate companies will be rearranged.

This change also happened in real estate stocks. Country Garden Services acquired a controlling stake in Blu-ray Garbo Services, and Sunac Services acquired an 80% stake in Zhangtai Services. According to Kerry's incomplete statistics, in the first half of this year, the total amount of mergers and acquisitions in the property management industry was close to 654.38+0.33 billion yuan, exceeding the total of 654.38+0 billion yuan last year. The whole industry has also changed from "big fish eat small fish" to "big fish eat big fish".

There are also some housing enterprises that want to catch up with the last window of listing and split their own properties. However, although it was successfully listed in the end, the valuation no longer has the high valuation enjoyed by property management companies listed in the previous two years. Judging from the market performance, among listed real estate stocks, the valuation of head enterprises can reach up to 40 times PE, while this year's listed enterprises are generally around 10 times PE.

Some real estate analysts pointed out that this differentiation is mainly due to the fact that these small and medium-sized properties can't escape the fate of being acquired, or they are not competitive compared with the head property management companies, so the valuation is at the valuation level of non-listed companies.

CICC believes that the regulation of property-related policies is a consistent continuation of industry supervision policies, with the purpose of continuously guiding the standardized and market-oriented development of the industry, which is conducive to further expanding the share of head enterprises with legal and compliant operations and market competitiveness.

As CITIC Securities said, the market in China is huge and the space is immovable. High-density layout around specific areas and even participation in the formulation of smart city standards can really develop a unique and competitive head company.