Introduction to feasibility study of real estate

Chapter I Feasibility Study of Real Estate

Operation link 1: Take the first investment step successfully.

The second operation link: the misunderstanding of feasibility study and its countermeasures

The third operation link: the strategic analysis of real estate feasibility study.

Step 4: Design a successful feasibility study process.

Step 5: Write an excellent feasibility study report.

Operation 6: How to coordinate the investment budget of feasibility study?

Step 7: Conduct a feasibility study from the overall situation.

operating guide

Feasibility study usually refers to the game where to shoot, shoot an arrow first and then draw a bull's-eye. The phased restriction of China real estate development leads to many uncertain factors in the market, and there is also a lot of room for manoeuvre for the success or failure of the project. Therefore, the most dangerous thing is that the feasibility study only becomes a rhetoric. The Practical Operation Manual of Real Estate Feasibility Study summarizes the main points and procedures of real estate feasibility study from a practical point of view, and incorporates them into the overall strategic design.

Operation link 1: the first step of successful investment.

1. Perspective on the feasibility study of private real estate

The feasibility study of real estate development project is a comprehensive study to make a comprehensive and systematic investigation and analysis of the proposed development project before the investment decision, and obtain a series of evaluation indexes by using scientific technical evaluation methods, and finally determine whether the project is feasible.

Generally speaking, the feasibility study is based on market supply and demand, limited by resource input, with scientific methods as the means and a series of evaluation indicators as the results. It usually has to deal with two problems:

The first is to determine whether the project can be implemented technically;

The second is how to achieve the best benefits (mainly economic benefits).

Judging from the actual situation of real estate project development, from the construction technology alone, there is generally no major difficulty that cannot be broken for a while. Whether it is a long-span bridge or a super-high-rise building, such as Yangpu and nanpu bridge, the 88-story Jinmao Tower with a height of 420 meters, and the Oriental Pearl with a height of 468 meters, it is a good proof. It can be seen that the key lies in the return on investment, that is, whether the best economic benefits can be achieved while taking into account social and environmental benefits.

2. Project investment is the first magic weapon to win.

Before the implementation of real estate projects, investment feasibility analysis must be carried out. At this stage, feasibility analysis is to solve the possibility of success of a specific project. Of course, just because an investment plan is likely to be successful or feasible does not mean that the project is suitable. Under normal circumstances, feasibility analysis should not only study one scheme, but also study several schemes at the same time. Sometimes several schemes may be feasible and attractive. In order to choose the best scheme from several feasible schemes, researchers can only comprehensively consider the market, capital, risk and other issues on the basis of feasibility analysis, and comprehensively evaluate the reasonable choice. Feasibility study can at least accurately answer these three questions:

Is this project feasible?

If so, to what extent?

C. If you invest, what is the worst situation you may encounter, and what should you do for it?

The third operation link: the strategic analysis of real estate feasibility study.

Analysis Angle 1: The impact of social, economic and environmental protection on the real estate market

The real estate industry is not an isolated industry. This book emphasizes in many places that it is wrong to regard the real estate industry as the "sprinkler industry" of the national economy. This is not just a matter of saying, but a basic question of understanding: does the real estate industry drive the development of the national economy, or does the growth of the national economy drive the development of the real estate industry? If this problem is reversed, there will be a fundamental error in the judgment of the situation. Both the government and enterprises will lead to the decision-making tendency of "putting others before themselves", such as Hainan, Huizhou, Beihai and other places in the early 1990s. The abnormal expansion and ups and downs of the real estate industry are the consequences of ignoring the development of the local national economy, reversing the priorities and not putting the real estate industry in a correct position.

Analysis angle 2: the influence of local government administrative behavior on the market.

The level of urban planning and planning control of some local governments directly affects local real estate development. As we all know, in Zhangjiagang City and Jiangyin City, where urban planning and management are good, real estate development has been in a relatively stable state. Advanced scientific planning, effective scale control and strict planning management have avoided the blind and rushing headlong into the real estate development in these two cities. In line with the principle of supporting, developing and managing together, there is basically no oversupply in the residential market here, and the pre-sale results of all properties are very good. In contrast, the scale of land transfer in many cities is seriously out of control, and the management of the real estate market is chaotic, which leads to serious land speculation, excessive supply of commercial housing, ups and downs of market prices, and improper planning and management by local governments, which brings great risks to developers.

Analysis angle 3: the influence of block environment on real estate marketing.

Gubei New District is not the center of Shanghai. Why is the property price so expensive? It turns out that Hongqiao Development Zone, the first foreign trade zone in Shanghai since the 1980s, has naturally become the main target for foreign businessmen to buy or rent houses with more and more foreign businessmen stationed in the office. The area is full of luxury houses, and the residents are mostly compatriots from Hong Kong and Taiwan and foreigners, so it has become a veritable residential area for foreigners in Shanghai. This makes Gubei New District enjoy a high reputation and naturally forms a unique social circle and living community. The building quality in this area is not bad, and there are many demanders who are willing to pay a lot of money. So prices and rents have been rising steadily. After entering 1996, although the house price in this community has declined, it is still the most expensive place in the country.

From the example of Gubei New District, it seems that the value of real estate does not depend entirely on the grade and quality of the building itself, but also on the surrounding neighborhood environment. It is precisely because of the development of Hongqiao Development Zone that there is a demand for noble houses in Gubei New District, and there is a clear functional complementary relationship between Hongqiao Development Zone and Gubei New District. Block function is the external motive force to realize the market value of real estate.

Investigation of investors' own situation

1, test your experience

Interlaced like a mountain, it is difficult to buy cattle across the mountain. It is impossible for any company to invest in areas that it doesn't know at all, and so is real estate investment. Even if it is a qualified enterprise in the real estate industry, if the company used to develop office buildings in the urban area and now the target investment object is suburban villas, can it be considered? That depends on whether the management of the company has talents with villa development experience, otherwise it is better to be cautious. Of course, things are not absolute. When you feel that the risk of "experience" is also worth taking, you don't have to think about it any more.

2. Check your investment method.

Due to different enterprise backgrounds and strengths, real estate investment enterprises have different project investment methods. Maybe your enterprise will never rent a building to get long-term returns, but build some and sell some, or even develop them through pre-sale, so you should think twice about those projects suitable for long-term development and areas suitable for long-term investment. Sometimes a good project becomes smelly shit in the hands of some real estate enterprises, and you can't throw it away if you want.

3. Check your financing ability.

The development of every real estate project will encounter the problems of borrowing and financing. The question is whether your lending channels and financing channels are reliable. If the project is built halfway and your follow-up funds are not provided, it will be fatal. I've seen many such things: a half-built project has been shut down for two or three years because there is no follow-up fund, and the upfront cost has increased by half, so even if it is built, there is no profit at all, which is obviously a loss-making business. Analysis Angle 4: The influence of investors' own conditions on marketing As the saying goes, "You know yourself". It is impossible for real estate developers not to analyze their own conditions when analyzing projects. It is impossible for a company to develop various projects and take various risks. Therefore, when investigating whether a region or a project is worth investing, we should also weigh whether the company is suitable for investing in that region.

The fourth operation link is the successful feasibility study process.

Step 1 Personnel arrangement and combination

The number of people in the project is responsible for project cost and time.

Certified real estate appraiser

Cost engineer

Market researchers and analysts

Economic analyst

producer

Sociology, environment and other experts

Step b: Market analysis

First, the macro factor analysis

When real estate developers plan to invest in a certain area of a country, the first thing to consider is the macro factors of the country, such as politics, economy, culture, geography, customs and religious beliefs, as well as the possibility of regional conflicts or wars.

B. Analysis of regional factors

Generally speaking, the development between China and the project area is unbalanced, and the differences always exist to varying degrees. It is not enough to study its macro factors, but also to analyze the factors in the area where the project is located. This is because: first, the macro-economy has different impacts on the regional economy, with great impacts on some areas and little impacts on others; Secondly, influenced by macroeconomics, there is a "time lag" phenomenon in regional economic development. It often takes a long time for the current macroeconomic situation to have an impact on regional economic development. Some areas are quick to respond, while others are obviously lagging behind, which must be considered when investing; Third, the specific regional economies of the three countries make some regional economies more or less affected by macroeconomic fluctuations, and even form a trend opposite to macroeconomic trends. China's special economic zones, free trade unions and bonded areas are relatively less dependent on international capital. Even during China's macroeconomic adjustment, when domestic funds are tight, its international capital is less affected, and projects in these fields are less affected.

C. Micro-market analysis

The analysis of the real estate micro-market in the region where the proposed investment project is located can be divided into the following two parts: one is the analysis of the proposed investment real estate market, and the other is the analysis of the same type of real estate market as the investment project.

Step c: Market forecast