Evergrande Real Estate Shuffle

Buying a house is the best choice at present.

The global currency has been liberalized, and everyone with a discerning eye knows that the era of asset shortage has come, and assets are an inevitable choice.

Pan Shiyi of SOHO China put it this way: A large amount of funds from various countries will certainly give birth to many strange things, but as long as we keep in mind the essence of creating social wealth, we will know what to do and what not to do, and we will be able to face any ups and downs calmly.

Obviously, due to the massive release of world currency, the era of global asset shortage has arrived. If ordinary people want to keep their wealth, they must know what to do and what not to do.

What should we do in the era of asset shortage? Personally, I think we should be greedy, buy scarce assets as soon as possible and hold as many scarce assets as possible.

What should we not do in the era of asset shortage? Personally, I don't think we should hold a lot of cash because it depreciates too quickly.

You should also know that the world is still in the epidemic period, and the reason why countries choose to invest a lot of money is to cure the economic losses caused by the epidemic. Now is not a good time to start a business, do business or invest.

In view of this, I personally think that buying a house is the best choice at present for five main reasons:

In order to cope with the large money supply, buying a house to fight inflation is the best choice at present, and it is also an inevitable choice under the asset shortage.

I deal with houses every day, and I talk about houses every day. Sometimes I calm down and think about it. In fact, the house has been biased by capital and public opinion. Especially at this time, should we buy a house greedily or sell it out of fear?

My opinion, for reference:

No greed, no fear. The key is to look at your own situation! External factors can be referenced, noticed and observed, but the final decision-making point is our own situation.

0 1. What external factors have changed now, which have affected the buying and selling of houses? Undoubtedly, the biggest change this year is the problem of global currency overshoot, and inflation expectations are in jeopardy.

Of course, these are just some issues that everyone cares about at the beginning of the year. Judging from the actual situation now, that is, in the middle of the year, inflation expectations are not as scary as some big bosses say.

It can even be said to be average!

After all, despite the high degree of global economic integration, China is so special! There are some bad guys out there who want to pass the crisis on to us and harvest our leeks, but it's not that easy.

Apart from inflation, rising prices and currency depreciation. Under the impact of the epidemic, the income of ordinary people is also threatened.

You may have found a phenomenon that prices have gone up and the currency has depreciated, but your effective income has not increased much, and some people are even going backwards.

For such a group of people, prices are rising, currencies are depreciating and incomes are declining. Obviously, such a life is more difficult. Life is very sad, let alone buying a house.

For people who have a house, what can they do if they sell it for money? Dare to do what? In the current economic situation, entities can't do it, and consumption can't do it. What is loss, investment and sales? Depreciation in cash?

So, whether it's buying a house or selling a house this year? You may not even have to struggle.

02. In addition to inflation and income, policies are constantly exerting efforts to regulate the future development of the property market.

The most obvious thing is that the puzzle of "long-term mechanism" is gradually putting together!

At the financial level, "three red lines" supervision is a very powerful measure to prevent real estate financial risks. Even Evergrande, the head housing company, was anxious and tried its best to meet the requirements of the three red lines.

At the regulatory level, "housing is not speculation" is the keynote, and restricting purchases, sales, loans and businesses is a concrete measure to curb overheating on the demand side.

The "centralized land supply" of 22 core cities is intended to disperse the land acquisition of housing enterprises, limit the rise of land prices and adjust prices from the supply side.

The purpose of "actively and steadily promoting" real estate tax legislation and expanding real estate tax pilot cities is to adjust the gap between the rich and the poor at the real estate holding end.

The transfer tax collection of land transfer fees, which started as early as next month, is intended to strengthen the supervision of land transfer fees, reduce the "operability" of local and housing development, promote the stable and healthy development of the industry, stabilize land prices and housing prices, and thus stabilize expectations.

In other words, real estate will be more and more supervised, and the stable trend of house prices will be a high probability event.

Therefore, whether buying a house or selling a house, looking at the future property market expectations may not be so entangled.

03. Should we buy or sell a house now? Inflation expectations have emerged, but the magnitude is not as high as expected, and it is not so terrible. If your income is not greatly improved, buying a house now may be risky.

Under the background that various "long-term mechanisms" in the country have been pieced together gradually, the policy outline of real estate tax has been somewhat clear, and the future trend of house prices is more likely to be stable. The real estate tax may not be as fierce as expected, and there is no need to be so afraid if there are extra houses.

So, are you buying or selling a house now?

More foothold or their own actual situation!

Buy if you have money and need it. After all, there are many policies to escort you, and the timetable for China's economy to surpass that of the United States has come out. In the next 10 year, China's economy will increase by about 60% on the basis of the present, reaching 160 trillion.

If converted into a house price comparison, it is roughly the gap between the house price in 2020 and the house price in 20 10!

However, we should also see that the long-term real estate mechanism in the future will be stricter, more perfect and more executive than in the past, and the future housing price gap is likely to be much smaller than in the past 10 years!

But one thing is certain: house prices will rise more easily in the future!

Don't worry too much about having extra houses, because real estate is still the ballast stone of the national economy. Although the real estate tax legislation is being actively promoted, it will not be too far away! However, there are still about 10 years before the official implementation, so don't be too afraid.

Therefore, in my opinion, I still focus on my own situation, not afraid of the present and the future! Do what you can, and postpone buying a house if you can't.

What about the seller?

Selling where you can make money, and continuing to hold a house where you can't make money, may be the best way to preserve wealth at present.

Come the other way. You are afraid when others are greedy, and you are greedy when you are afraid. This is the right thing to do.

In the past two years, housing prices in many places have been returned to their original shape. Look at the people around you, how many are still waiting to continue to fall?

House prices in Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen will never plummet. It will only stabilize and then climb slightly.

Other first-and second-tier cities, such as Hangzhou, Nanjing, Sanya, Chongqing, Zhengzhou and other places, just don't rise, and the plunge is not realistic.

I often live in Zhengzhou. Other cities don't understand, Zhengzhou is still clear.

It is said that house prices in Zhengzhou have fallen. Separate places! The embryonic form of autumn in the outer suburbs was exposed. For example, in Lubo, Xingyang and Pingyuan New District, oil prices all have a prefix of 7 or even lower.

But look at the price of a good school district in a good location in the city center, instead of falling, it will rise!

Isn't it the same even in Beijing?

Look at the housing prices in Gu 'an, Dachang and Xianghe around Beijing. They used to be 40,000, but now they have fallen to 1 10,000.

Look at the Haidian School District, where 200,000 square meters are still being snapped up.

So, don't be afraid, you just need it, and now is the best time to buy.

The biggest problem now is that, affected by the epidemic, the world has issued a large amount of money and released a lot of water, which is very embarrassing. Sell the property, take the cash, watch the money get more and more gross, and think about the M room to see if you are qualified to buy it.

I have to say that the real estate policy is well regulated. Moreover, some cities have also set up a new method of "m-room by ticket", which shows that it is imperative to weaken the financial attribute of real estate and return to the housing attribute. Then, as an ordinary member of you and me, how should we choose in the face of today's internal and external troubles? Which is better, room M or selling a house? Let me analyze it for you.

First of all: If the M house belongs to the investment type, we must choose scarce and high-quality assets to fight inflation. You can look at the surrounding environment and compare the first-and second-tier buildings with complete facilities, excellent degrees and lots with the third-and fourth-tier buildings The more suppressed the area, the more investors flock to it, and capital is the smartest. You can buy it as long as you have chips.

Secondly: it is difficult to sell a house now. If possible, plan to replace general property with core quality property as soon as possible.

Third, the current investment environment is the most unbearable moment in many years. Affected by the epidemic, the flow of people is limited, consumption is sluggish, and the real economy is struggling step by step. Holding cash, the currency depreciates at the rate of 14% every year, and the purchasing power declines, making the currency less and less valuable.

In the absence of good investment targets, only buying real estate in the core area is the best choice. Of course, it is also a good choice to invest in your brain and enrich your knowledge.

Let's give the simplest example. Many friends around me were penniless migrant workers at first. By chance, they made a lot of money by investing with those rich people. Some people will say, how can those migrant workers invest with the rich without money? In fact, this is a question of value. What do you have to attract rich people? Is it obedient? Diligence? There are information resources to enjoy. To put it bluntly, it means being used.

My friend is very clever. She has no money, but she has a clever mind and a glib tongue. She just matches the bridge and uses the information gap to make money. For example, she got a set of goods, and she found an intermediary company to cooperate with her. The cooperation was successful and she got a copy.

Then when the time is right, I will follow those rich people to buy good real estate for long-term investment. A few back and forth, I am now worth a lot. Imagine that if you want to achieve wealth and freedom by going it alone, you have to wait until the Year of the Monkey.

Finally: Say a thousand words and ten thousand words, high-quality assets are the best investment choice at any time. Only by purchasing high-quality real estate in the core area can we resist the global water release and ensure the preservation and appreciation of assets.

A few days ago, I heard from friends in the group that two sons and an old couple had worked hard for half their lives and earned a suite for their children. Very gratified and proud. As the old saying goes, it's worth the phoenix tree. Is the house the most important and trustworthy thing in a person's life?

I am engaged in property management and integrated with real estate companies. This is very beneficial to property management. Special housing quality, public facilities maintenance and other work carried out smoothly, and some evasive things rarely appeared. Speaking of houses, on New Year's Eve, all newly delivered buildings have renovation works. Go up and ask, people have moved in. I'm decorating, so I'll hurry up and finish packing early, move all the furniture in and leave it with my relatives for the time being. On the third day of the lunar new year, the owners began to load cars and decorate them one after another. When the rented house expires, they are not going to rent it again. They quickly packed up their new house and put an end to their troubles. From these aspects, we can see that people are eager to own their own houses for a long time. They can't wait to decorate it and then move in.

The epidemic situation has a certain impact on all industries. The country has introduced vaccines, and prevention and control measures have been gradually strengthened. The epidemic is expected to disappear in May. With the increase of construction workers returning to the construction site, I think the development and construction speed of real estate companies will also accelerate after the epidemic. Real estate will have a good situation. As for the price increase, it won't increase much. When it comes to price reduction, it is only a temporary and partial means of promotion. I think it's right to buy a house if you have money.

Are you greedy to buy a house or afraid to sell it?

First, "greedy" buying a house is human nature. If buying a house is mixed with "greed", it will form a speculative wind. The "real estate speculation for all" in previous years came from this.

After 20 or 30 years of prosperity, the real estate price has risen beyond the horizon, especially in the real estate "golden decade". Real estate speculators have made a lot of money in this "pass the package" game, and many investors who seize the opportunity have also made money. The people saw their friends in the property market and blindly followed the trend to participate in the army of "real estate speculation", thus forming the era of "real estate speculation for all".

If people who bought houses a few years ago were greedy, they are more rational now. With the gradual tightening of the regulation of the property market and the deepening of "housing without speculation", ordinary people realize that houses are used for living, not for speculation, and the main body of the real estate market has gradually become just-needed and improved, and fewer and fewer people buy houses for investment purposes. What's more, the house price is already very high. Who has so much money to buy a house greedily?

Second, "fear" is more rational to sell a house and buy a house, so what is the mentality of the current seller? Is it "fear" or "fear"?

With the continuous advancement of urbanization, the central area of the city has developed to the suburbs. Many people living in the old city moved to the new city, and then the houses in the old city were resold, resulting in more and more second-hand houses listed, which has become a trend in many cities. First-tier cities and several hot-spot second-tier cities have gradually entered the era of stock houses.

While the supply of second-hand houses is gradually increasing, the houses that have been listed for a long time are still not sold, but some second-hand houses that have just been listed are sold soon, which leads some owners to "fear" selling houses. They think that the current housing prices can't reach their own values. In fact, they also understand that what they can sell must be cheaper than their listing price, but they just want to be "equivalent", preferring to hang up rather than reduce the price.

Third, housing is not speculative. The house price is very high now. This has become an indisputable fact. Ordinary people are no longer "greedy" to buy a house, but people who sell a house are a little "afraid". Xiaohe believes that house prices will eventually stabilize, just keep a normal heart.

Greed and fear are two natural emotions of human beings and the expression of human nature, but if they are mixed with buying and selling houses, they should not be. Under the control of "housing is not speculation", the price increase gradually narrows, and the short-term price rise and fall can not represent anything. Whether buying a house or selling a house, you should keep a normal heart. According to the market situation at that time, it should be bought and sold. Buying a house can meet our own needs, and selling a house can solve the problem of capital turnover. That's right. Psychologically, people who "suffer from loss" will have and understand, but it is important to be normal if they want to live a happy life.

To sum up, in today's property market, ordinary people are no longer "greedy" to buy a house, but people who sell a house are a little "afraid". Xiaohe believes that whether buying a house or selling a house, it is good to keep a normal heart.

Its realization is that many people want to buy a house, why not buy a house? Because they don't know what kind of house to buy or what kind of house to buy for themselves. It's just that the house is a mass commodity and takes up a lot of money. In their hesitation, many people can't afford the house they want, so they don't buy it. They are afraid that after buying a house, the house will not fall with her, so they don't buy a house. So they must know more about the real estate market before buying a house, and they must know more about the real estate market before buying a house. This is the correct way to open it.

Now investment needs to be cautious! What you just need and improve can be shot! Well, near high school, or near the subway.

When it comes to houses, even economists can only talk about "expectations".

When you see the word "expectation", you know that the problem is complicated. "Expectation" can be "beyond expectation", "in line with expectation" and "below expectation". If it meets expectations, it will often form a new trend, and once this trend is formed, it will run along the already formed track. Therefore, it is said that "those who follow the wind will prosper and those who go against the trend will die", and those who know the times are heroes.

When it comes to housing prices, everything is "expected", and the trend is taking shape, not the trend has already taken shape. Therefore, it doesn't matter whether we are "greedy" to buy a house or "afraid" to sell a house.

There is a big difference now.

The performance of real estate agents and developers is the most direct. If you are not sure about the market situation, you will know by secretly observing the houses hung by real estate agents.

In a few words, just need housing, don't wait, buy. Buying a house now requires the courage to burn one's bridges. If you don't have the courage, just look at the suggestions of the media. 90% people will never wait for the best time to buy a house. Wait until the house price falls before buying. When will the house price fall to the right place? Everything is expected, no one knows, it is better to close your eyes and buy. If house prices fall, you will lose money by investing in the stock market. House prices have fallen steadily, and have risen steadily.

Simpler, don't worry, just test the following questions:

1. Can I buy back the house after selling it? If you can't buy it back, you can not sell it. Why bother?

2. Is there a better investment channel to fight inflation when the house is sold? If there is, sell it decisively. If not, it's next to it. Being a landlord may get some psychological comfort.

3. Is there a place to live after selling the house? Yes, you can consider selling it; No, just messing around.

I'm especially afraid of falling house prices. I'm already worried about it. Sell it. After all, the house only serves our life, not worries us.

1, Ma Yun predicted that "house prices will be as cheap as onion and cabbage in the next eight years" and suggested that young people rent a house.

Ma Yun's own reality is: sitting on the 1 1 billion "Peach Blossom Garden" in Hangzhou.

Cao thinks that the house price is too high now, so it's time to reduce the price.

Cao's own reality is that he has a 70 million house in Fuzhou.

Carina Lau invested in a house, not anything else. In her words, she buys a house as soon as she has money. Now her assets are hundreds of millions.

Need is the most important thing. If you just need it, buy it under any circumstances!

Since the second half of last year, except for the strong housing prices in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, most parts of the country have been on holiday! Take Tangshan City, Hebei Province as an example, the house price is too high, and the house could not be sold in the second half of last year, and the price dropped steadily! I think the same is true in other cities. Many houses in the small county are not built now, which is enough for the people in the county, not to mention the houses under construction now!

It is more rational to buy a house now, so you can't follow suit. All my friends around me have three or four suites, with up to two children! However, the number of newborns born in 2020 is a little more than10 million, and in 2065438+2009 it is16 million! The decline in the birth rate turned into a cliff-like decline. If this goes on, after many years, the house will become a burden and no one will live there!

Some people used to invest in real estate when they had money, thinking that we would beat inflation anyway. Buying a house is not as good as depreciating funds, but now this set is not suitable for the current development, and the bubble of the real estate economy cannot be ignored!

In short, rational consumption suits you!