If the house price does not rise with the loan, will it lose interest if it is sold?

As we all know, in the 20 years of rapid development of the real estate industry, the average house price across the country has risen from 2,000 yuan to nearly 10,000 yuan, an increase of 4 or 5 times. It should be said that many economists have tasted the benefits of real estate appreciation. However, this is only the average house price, because the natural environment of the real estate industry in each big city is different. Therefore, if we look at first-and second-tier cities independently, the price increase will be more significant. For example, in first-and second-tier cities such as Shenzhen and Shanghai, it is more than 10 times. Therefore, the benefits of the real estate industry have long been needless to say. Of course, it is also the case that China people have always enjoyed buying a house, and both project investors and families with rigid needs will always stare at the house price after buying a house, hoping that the house price can keep growing, so sometimes the real estate industry gradually becomes a mobile game in the financial industry.

However, in recent two or three years, with the strict and centralized regulation of real estate, the house prices that were previously considered to be only rising but not falling have gradually stepped down from the altar, and diversification has returned to stability. It is worth mentioning that it is generally predicted in the industry that under the long-term precise positioning of staying in the house and not speculating, with the rapid advancement of the normalization of the real estate industry, stability may also become the long-term theme of the real estate industry. In April, 2020, at the annual sales performance exchange meeting of Vanke Real Estate in 2020, Yu Liang indicated that the regulation in the past four years has made the sales market clearly realize the reliability, cohesion and democratic style of the current policy, and the logic of the real estate industry has changed, so it will no longer be able to make big money and earn RMB, and the return of houses to livable characteristics has become an established and clear development trend. In Bian Xiao's view, not only real estate developers, but also property buyers should find this development trend earlier.

Then, in such a real estate market, will buying a house continue to be profitable as before? In view of this problem, the views of the industry at this stage are basically the same. For a long time, in everyone's impression, because the speed and intensity of the national housing price increase has been relatively fast, the existence of the cost of property ownership has basically not been felt, and it is indeed very rare to lose money in buying a house.

But once the future housing price level is maintained for a long time, the capital cost, loan interest cost and depreciation cost will appear one by one. In other words, when the cost of real estate ownership slowly exceeds the speed and intensity of the national housing price increase, it is not the national housing price increase that can complete capital appreciation. Then, the question is, if you choose to buy a house with a loan and sell it five years later, how much will the house price rise before you lose money? Now let's talk about what the insiders say, and simply calculate an account.

For example, suppose you buy a house of 100 square meter, and the price at the time of purchase is 15000 yuan per square meter, then the total purchase price is1.5000 yuan, and you use the repayment method of equal principal and interest for 30 years, and then sell the suite five years later (only five years later). First of all, consider a situation. If we don't buy this suite, but just deposit this 450,000 yuan (down payment) in financial institutions, then according to the interest rate of about 4% for large deposits in financial institutions, we can get a profit after five years: 450,000 * 4% * 5 = more than 90,000 yuan.

Secondly, if you buy a house with a loan, in addition to paying a 30% down payment, buyers also need to encounter high loan interest costs. After 30 years, the loan interest paid and the loan bank can be regarded as "evenly matched". According to the current LPR+70bp = 5.35%, the loan is 6.5438+0.05 million yuan, and the mortgage interest rate is about 4,600 yuan * 654.38+February *5 years = 276,000 yuan.

Third, in addition to the mortgage interest rate, various taxes and fees are also the majority. Among them, the real estate deed tax is about 1.5% * 1.5 million = 22,500; The housing maintenance fund is calculated as per square meter 100 yuan, which is about 100* 100 square meter =10000; The property management fee is calculated at two yuan per square meter, which is about 2* 100 square meter *5 years * 65438+February = 1.2 million). Look at all kinds of taxes, and the total is about 44,500 yuan.

Finally, after taking the house, interior decoration is the most important, not only the basic decoration, but also the soft design. Together, the conservative estimate must be 250 thousand.

To sum up, if the house is sold five years later, the fixed cost of the house is probably as follows: investment and financial loss profit+house purchase price+loan interest rate+taxes and fees+decoration expenses = 90,000+1.50,000+276,000+44,500+250,000 = 2160,500. However, after fully considering buying a house, there is no need to rent a house, which saves a lot of rent expenses. According to the monthly rent of 2,000 yuan, it can save about 2,000 yuan *12 * 5 =120,000 yuan. Therefore, the final purchase cost is at least 2,040,500 yuan.

According to the above analysis, it can be seen that if this house is sold in five years, the house price should be at least 2040 yuan per square meter if it is to break even. Compared with five years ago, house prices must rise by 5400 yuan per square meter. In other words, at least 36% of the indoor space can be guaranteed. Of course, this is only a fuzzy optimization algorithm, and there are many other fragmentary costs that have not been calculated, which buyers can use as a reference. If you really consider buying a house, you can also measure it according to your own specific situation, so as to ensure that you know what you are doing. After all, only by paying more attention before buying a house can you feel more at ease after buying a house.

In addition, we must also remind property buyers that today is different from the past with the changes in the real estate situation. Buying a house now, we must be concerned about the mobility of the house.

According to the published data, the per capita living area in China has reached 40 square meters at this stage. Therefore, compared with 20 years ago, the period of insufficient housing has long since bid farewell, and houses will no longer be scarce. It is worth mentioning that, under the background of gradual differentiation of the real estate industry, the industrial layout is relatively backward in view of the lack of population attraction or even continuous discharge. With the further separation of the financial characteristics of real estate, the houses here have basically no other great development potential except self-occupation. So, of course, you can buy a house if you live by yourself, but if it is a project investment, once a big city makes a mistake and doesn't buy a new property, it is likely that the demand will be in short supply and even it will not be sold. These are all things that buyers must pay attention to in the future.

Generally speaking, the property market has changed. "Close your eyes to buy a house" and "only make money without compensation" have become a thing of the past, so buyers should never treat the real estate industry with their past psychological state, recognize the trend and follow the trend is the best choice. What do you think of this matter? Warmly welcome to discuss together.