What are the reasons and strategies for real estate to promote economic growth?

Reasons and strategies for real estate to promote economic growth _ Besson's heart has _ building economy _ building Chinese network Where the economy is developed, the real estate industry is not a pillar industry but also a developed industry, and its economic development is related to the economic pull of developed real estate industry. The pulling or spreading effect of real estate industry is particularly strong, mainly for the following reasons.

First, the reasons why real estate can stimulate economic growth

In developed countries, real estate industry is not a pillar industry but also a developed industry, and its economic development is related to the economic pull of developed real estate industry. The pulling or spreading effect of real estate industry is particularly strong, mainly for the following reasons.

1. The development of the real estate industry needs many departments and industries in the national economy to provide material information to match its development.

70% of the construction cost in China is material consumption, which is matched by products sold by other departments and industries. The development of real estate industry needs the cooperation of many material production departments and service industries in the national economy, such as building materials, equipment, machinery, metallurgy, ceramics, instruments, forestry, plastics, glass, hardware, fuel power and other products and services, thus affecting and stimulating its development.

2. The real estate products produced by the development of the real estate industry provide the premise and place for the development of many departments and industries of the national economy.

The development and construction of housing can provide the premise and development place for the development of commerce, furniture industry, household appliances industry, house decoration industry, garden flower and wood industry, home communication industry, moving company, housing finance and insurance industry, property management industry, family special service industry, house buying and selling intermediary industry, etc. The main means of production of the tertiary industry is housing, which provides a prerequisite for the development of the tertiary industry and promotes its development.

3. Real estate consumption, especially housing consumption, is a comprehensive consumption that affects and drives all aspects of life consumption.

Real estate consumption, especially housing consumption, is a comprehensive consumption, which affects all aspects of people's lives, such as eating, wearing, using, living, traveling, entertainment, fitness, learning, socializing, enjoying and developing. There are high-level and low-level ones. Senior residence is not only a means of survival, but also a means of enjoying development. A famous politician in the world said? Quot man-made houses make people.

Therefore, the development of real estate industry and the improvement of residents' housing consumption level have created conditions for the improvement of other aspects of people's lives and promoted the overall improvement of housing consumption level. At present, some people in our country want to buy a car, so there is no place to park. If the housing level is improved and there is a garage at home, it will definitely promote the car to enter the family consumption. Another example is fitness and entertainment consumption. Many families suffer from small housing and dare not buy fitness equipment if they want to exercise. In short, the improvement of housing level and living environment can promote many aspects of living consumption and stimulate many aspects of product sales and labor exchange.

It is precisely because the development of the real estate industry has a strong ripple effect, which has played a role in stimulating the development of the national economy in many aspects, so there are the following statistics and records on the development of the real estate industry in the world: the real estate value in industrialized countries has increased by 1 unit, which has led to an increase in the output value of related industries by 1, from 5 units to 2 units. According to the input-output table of China of Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences 198 1 year, for every additional investment of 1 billion yuan in China's housing industry, the other 23 related industries will increase by147.9 million yuan, including 70 million yuan in building materials, metallurgy, agriculture and forestry machinery industries. Some scholars estimate that the development of real estate can directly or indirectly drive the development of more than 60 departments and industries. To this end, Comrade Deng Xiaoping pointed out as early as the early stage of reform that the real estate industry in China should be developed into a pillar industry of the national economy. During the period of 1996, when the government of China formulated the Ninth Five-Year Plan and 20 10, it also put forward the idea of taking housing and automobiles as the new pillar industries of the national economy.

Second, there are many problems in the ineffective start of China real estate market.

In order to develop the real estate industry and stimulate the national economy, the government has introduced many policies and measures, such as reducing taxes and fees, lowering interest rates by banks, selling public houses to individuals, promoting mortgage loans, and opening up the secondary housing market. It can't be said that it has no effect on promoting real estate investment and developing the real estate industry, but it is not ideal. The reason is that there are fundamental and deep-seated problems that are not conducive to the effective realization of housing products in China.

1. Production and consumption are not coordinated, and the consumption rate is low.

Conditional development of the real estate industry to stimulate the economy, that is, the realization of real estate products. The biggest problem of investing in real estate development is also the realization of housing. Investing in real estate development has both demand effect and supply effect, which is the essential effect of investment. If the investment in real estate development can not produce demand effect and can not be realized, it will only affect the long-term development of the national economy.

Quench thirst by drinking poison, which aggravates the backlog of real estate products in the national economy. If the investment in real estate product development has demand effect and can be sold smoothly, the multiplier to the national economy will be large, and the supply and demand operation of the real estate market will remain benign.

The investment in developing real estate products has a demand effect and a great multiplier effect on stimulating economic growth. People must have a reasonable final consumption rate and monetary purchasing power. However, in the past 20 years, China's economy has grown rapidly. Although the absolute consumption of residents has also increased, the final consumption rate has shown a downward trend. Compared with 1996 and 198 1 year, the constant price of 1978 decreased by 10.6 percentage point. The reason is that from 1986 to 1998, the average annual growth rate of per capita income of urban and rural residents is 4 percentage points lower than that of gross domestic product (GDP) and 2.6 percentage points lower than that of the same period. As a result, the proportion of residents' income in GDP in this period decreased by 12 percentage points compared with the average level in the sixth five-year plan period; The ratio of 1998 is 4 1.4%, which is nearly 20 percentage points lower than the average level during the Sixth Five-Year Plan period. The international average household consumption rate is about 60%.

Famous development economist H? An empirical study by Chenery et al. shows that when the per capita GDP is about 1000 US dollars, the consumption rate is generally 6 1%, while the per capita GDP in China is 1997 860 US dollars, but the consumption rate in China is only 47.5%, which is 1.4 percentage points lower than the international average. The consumption rate in China is so low. It is the accumulation of low wages and people's income growth rate lagging behind GDP growth rate for a long time. This situation leads to the backlog of products and affects the smooth reproduction. As far as housing is concerned, at the beginning of the reform, the per capita housing in cities and towns was more than 3 square meters. At present, the per capita housing in many cities and towns has exceeded 10 square meter, and the house price has doubled. However, the per capita disposable income of urban residents has only increased by 2. 1 1 times from 1978 to 1997, and many places are still investing in development. The disharmony between production and consumption and the low consumption rate are the crux of the difficulty in starting real estate.

2. The transformation of housing financing system is asymmetric.

Before the reform, China implemented a low-wage system, and the labor remuneration of employees and cadres was actually paid in two forms: monetary wages and in-kind remuneration. Monetary wages control food and clothing, while material rewards control housing, medical care and study. This is in line with the leftist thought and system of a freshman and sophomore at that time. In the product value (c v m), V is artificially reduced, M is artificially expanded, and employee housing accumulation fund, etc. , by the expanded M turned over to finance, housing funded by the state, owned by the state, free use of workers. The essence of housing system reform is to change the financial public financing system into individual financing system to meet the requirements of market economy system.

The housing accumulation fund enters the wages of employees, and the individual employees contribute to the purchase of houses in the market, and the government no longer distributes houses in kind. Now the housing reform is also changing in this way. On the one hand, it gives housing subsidies to employees, on the other hand, it requires employees to buy houses with money. But in the specific reform practice, it is asymmetric and uncoordinated. When workers buy a house with money, they have to hand it over immediately, and the salary subsidy given by the government to employees is much cry and little rain. Imagine that except for coastal cities, the average annual income of employees in most cities and towns in China is only a few thousand yuan, which was lower in previous years. It's really hard to suddenly want to spend tens of thousands of yuan and hundreds of thousands of yuan to buy a house now. Even if the mortgage loan is implemented, the principal and interest of several hundred yuan a month will be repaid, which makes many employees daunting and banks dare not lend. The original consumption rate is too low, and the asymmetric transformation of housing financing system makes it more difficult to start the real estate market.

3. The antinomy and imbalance of people's psychological expectations.

In order to make people willing to invest in buying houses and starting real estate, the key lies in residents' confidence in psychological expectations, eliminating psychological barriers to buying houses and having confidence in future income and expenditure. But if residents want to have confidence in the future, they must have appropriate consumption policies and systems. In the final analysis, consumption policy can only adjust two kinds of balance relations: one is the balance relationship between personal financial assets used for investment and consumption; The second is the balance between spot consumption and long-term consumption. If it is used for investment, it is used for consumption, and if it is used for short-term consumption, it is used for long-term consumption.

But the current policy is: on the one hand, encourage people to invest in stocks, solve the financing problem of state-owned enterprises, and change indirect investment into direct investment; On the other hand, through various media propaganda, people are encouraged to buy relatively surplus goods in the market and spend money on tourism. On the one hand, let people spend money quickly, spend money now and buy goods that are relatively surplus in the current market. On the other hand, the introduction of housing reform, medical reform and educational reform, especially the purchase of houses, will take more responsibility for long-term consumption. On the one hand, it is difficult to get laid off and get employment, and the income expectation is not optimistic. On the other hand, the expectation of expenditure increases, and residents lose confidence in their psychological expectation of future income and expenditure. Government policies will solve major problems in the current national economy and solve the housing backlog problem, all of which depend on 6 trillion yuan of bank savings deposits.

Let's not say that the income distribution gap is large, nor that 80% of residents only account for 20% of savings deposits. With a population of 65.438+0.25 billion in China, the per capita savings is only about 5,000 yuan, and the average household savings is only 6.5438+0.7 million yuan, or even less. When the income budget decreases and the expenditure is expected to increase, that is, mortgage loans are implemented to buy a house, people are also cautious about buying a house. Even if families have a small amount of savings, residents' prudent saving function plays a leading role, for the sake of life safety, and they dare not rashly take out their houses.

4. The income distribution gap has widened and the marginal propensity to consume has declined.

In China, a country with low per capita GDP, the current final consumption level is 58.8%, and the consumption level of residents is 47.5%, which is obviously low. In recent years, the income distribution gap has been widening.

According to the sampling survey of 35,000 urban residents and 70,000 farmers in China conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics195, the per capita disposable income of urban residents in195 was 4,283 yuan, and the per capita living expenses income was 3,893 yuan, both increasing by 4.9% compared with194. 1996' s per capita disposable income and per capita living expenses increased by more than 4% compared with 1995. But at the same time, while the per capita income is increasing, the decline of residents' income is expanding. In the first half of 1994, the income of urban residents in China decreased by 37.9%, which was 2.7 percentage points higher than that in the same period 1993. During the period of 1995, the average income of urban residents in China increased by nearly 5 percentage points, while the income of 4 1% residents decreased by more than 1994. In particular, the decrease in income is mainly concentrated in low-income groups. From 1997 to 1998, the per capita income of cities and towns in China is still increasing. At the same time, due to economic restructuring and economic depression, a large number of workers are laid off and their income is reduced. The decrease in income is still concentrated in low-and middle-income people, and the income gap continues to widen or even widen. This income gap is manifested among different groups. For example, the income of employers in private enterprises (including foreign-funded enterprises) is generally 10 times that of ordinary workers, and some are as high as 100 times.

It is estimated that there are more than one million millionaires in China, and there are more than 1 0 million millionaires. This excessive income gap is reflected in China's Gini coefficient, which was 28.8 in the 1980s and 38.8 in the 1990s, thus widening the gap between the rich and the poor. This excessive income gap is reflected in residents' savings deposits. The rich who account for 20% of the total population have 80% of the 6 trillion deposits, while the residents who account for 80% of the total population have only 20% of the 6 trillion deposits.

The law of living consumption expenditure is that the marginal consumption tendency of low-income class is higher than that of high-income class, and the marginal monetary efficiency of low-income class is higher than that of high-income class. According to the analysis of the survey results of 36,370 households in 1996 and 37,890 urban residents in 1997, the above principle is also confirmed. From 1996 to 1997, the growth rate of consumption expenditure of the lowest-income families in China was 0.25%, and that of the highest-income families was 12.78%. From the vertical, we can see that in the process of people's income improvement, the absolute amount of consumption expenditure also increases accordingly. The demand elasticity coefficient of the lowest-income households and the highest-income households, that is, the ratio of the growth rate of consumption expenditure to the growth rate of total income, is 2.5 for the lowest-income households and 1. 13 for the highest-income households. This means that the income increased by the former accounts for more than the income increased by the latter. However, due to the widening income distribution gap in China, the income reduction has expanded in recent years. The income reduction is mainly concentrated in low-income groups, and the income increase is mainly concentrated in high-income groups. This leads to the marginal propensity to consume of urban residents in China dropping from 198 1 to 1997, and from 0.84 to 0.64.

As far as the purchase and start-up of real estate are concerned, the low-income groups with poor housing conditions have a strong desire to buy houses. Although their income demand elasticity coefficient is large and their marginal propensity to consume is high, they are unable to buy houses, while the high-income groups with mainly concentrated income distribution have the ability to buy houses, but their demand elasticity coefficient is small, their marginal propensity to consume is low and their housing conditions are relatively good, so they are not in a hurry to buy houses. Therefore, it is difficult to realize a well-developed house and start real estate.

Third, the idea of starting the real estate industry in China.

1. Continue to implement policies and measures to combat recession and adjust the economic cycle.

To start real estate, we think it is necessary to distinguish between general policy measures and special strategies aimed at reality. The policies and measures introduced by the government some time ago should be regarded as the practice under the guidance of the general theory of anti-recession and economic cycle regulation in market economy countries; For example, reducing bank interest rates, reducing deposit reserve and encouraging banks to lend, expanding fiscal expenditure, substantially raising employees' wages and enhancing residents' purchasing power, reducing taxes and fees, and encouraging residents to invest in stocks and bonds. , play a role in preventing prices from continuing to fall and slump, preventing the national economy from recession and decline, and regulating the growth trend and stable development of the national economy from different angles. Of course, it has also played a regulatory role in the development of the real estate economy to varying degrees. Because there is a thermometer between the real estate industry and the national economy. In the future, we need to continue to implement these policies and measures, whether for the national economy to get out of the trough or to start real estate.

However, due to the above-mentioned deep-seated problems that are not conducive to the realization of real estate, and the problems accumulated over the years cannot be solved immediately in the short term, it is not ideal and effective to start real estate only by relying on the above-mentioned general policy measures. For example, because the growth rate of residents' income lags behind the growth rate of GDP for a long time, the consumption rate is low, and residents' ability to pay for housing is insufficient. It is impossible to make up for nearly 14 percentage points of GDP by raising wages and increasing income in one or two years, and reach a reasonable proportion of 60% of residents' consumption rate. Because it takes a long time and a complicated process. In addition to increasing the wages of employees year by year, we should also reduce unemployment, increase employment and develop small towns; Increasing employment depends on the rational adjustment of economic structure, which in turn depends on the time and process of policy formulation and implementation.

In order to start real estate quickly, besides continuing to implement the general policies to stimulate the development of national economy, we must also proceed from reality and implement some special strategies in a targeted manner.

2. Targeted short-term strategies to start real estate.

(1) Seize the groups with higher income levels and start with real estate through tax cooperation. At present, banks in China have 6 trillion savings deposits. If we make a concrete analysis, we can't simply say that residents don't have the ability to buy houses or dare to spend money. A considerable part of these 6 trillion deposits are owned by high-income or higher-income classes.

According to Guo's article "How to Look at the Coordinated Growth of Investment and Consumption" published on the front page of Economic Daily on May 20th 1999, at present, a large-scale high-income class has formed in the field of science and technology education in China, and their bank deposits account for about 20% of the total savings of residents. The government attaches great importance to improving the housing conditions of intellectuals, who are also enterprises.

Looking forward to the improvement of housing level and living environment. The income of intellectuals is not only growing steadily and rapidly, but also full of confidence in the psychological expectation of future income and expenditure. For example, the government leases some land with better environment at preferential prices, develops and builds some high-grade apartments and villas, and cooperates with the reduction and exemption of personal income tax such as labor remuneration and royalties. They should be willing to invest in buying a house. This can not only start the multiplier of real estate to promote economic growth, improve the living and working conditions of intellectuals, but also benefit the socialization of the service system of universities and scientific research units.

Entrepreneurs, private entrepreneurs, performing stars, etc. China is a high-income class. Housing has the function of showing social status. If the government can lease some land with elegant environment, develop and build high-class villas, build entrepreneurs' gardens and star villas, and improve supporting exchange centers, negotiation centers, social places, entertainment palaces and shopping buildings, it will not only have an elegant living environment, but also show their reputation and status, which is also conducive to their business information exchange and social interaction. If you add the government's personal income tax relief and some private enterprise income tax, they will be willing to invest and buy.

(2) Grasp the socialization of service system in colleges and universities, and develop student apartments and their living facilities. The Ministry of Education plans to continue to expand the enrollment scale in the next five years, reaching100000 students in 2005, catching up with the average level of 15% of the world's young people studying in colleges and universities. The reform of education system requires the socialization of service system in colleges and universities. By 2005, the teacher-student ratio will reach 1: 14. This reform has brought opportunities to the development of the real estate industry and is promising. The normal consumption of a college student (including tuition) is 65.438+billion yuan a year, and millions of college students account for 65.438+billion yuan. As far as student apartments are concerned, 50 million square meters of each student's 5 square meters (including toilets and bathrooms) will be built and rebuilt; In addition, it is necessary to build and rebuild millions of college students' canteens, supporting rooms for washing, entertainment, shopping and communication, as well as living rooms for relevant personnel serving them. The development of student apartments and supporting houses only talks about development and construction, not about sales and leasing, and there is no problem of realizing the value of houses.

At present, the survey results of residents' willingness to save and consume published by National Bureau of Statistics and China Economic Climate Monitoring Center show that 10% of residents' savings deposits will be used for education expenditure. As many as 40% depositors in Wuhan save for education. 199865438+February, a real estate major of a university in Wuhan conducted a questionnaire survey on 200 students, and 90 students were willing to choose one room, one living room and one bathroom, accounting for 47%; 60 people are willing to choose two rooms, one living room and one bathroom, accounting for 32%; 30 people are willing to choose a single room and bathroom, accounting for15%; There are 1 1 people who are willing to choose single rooms and public toilets, accounting for 6%. But now the students in this school are usually 6-8 people, with an inner corridor layout, living in a dark and humid environment for a long time, and urgently need to live in a student apartment. 1999, the newly-built student apartment of Shanghai Cuisine University can only accommodate 180 students, but as many as 1400 students applied for the exam, so the apartment became a hot commodity. All this shows that it is promising to start real estate to stimulate economic growth, whether it is new development, renovation or selling vacant houses now, and to do a good job in socialization of logistics services in colleges and universities.

(3) Develop and start the real estate industry with the broad concept of real estate industry. At present, many people only think about building and selling houses on the issue of starting real estate and developing real estate industry, so it is difficult to realize houses. If we start from the big concept of the real estate industry, we will open our minds and have a different world. The real estate industry is a commercial service industry, which belongs to the tertiary industry in essence. It is an industry with the exchange and circulation of real estate as its main content, as well as the investment, development and consumption in the process of real estate reproduction, and provides technology, intermediary and labor services for the circulation, investment, development and consumption of real estate. So there are many departments, industries and fields within the real estate industry. If we comprehensively consider the real estate industry from the connotation, it will not only be conducive to the improvement of the real estate market, but also to the development and sales of real estate, and also help to start the development of real estate and stimulate economic growth.

As far as the decoration industry in housing use and consumption is concerned, whether it is the output value created or the pull to the national economy, it should not be underestimated. At present, the investment in the renovation of new houses in cities ranges from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands and hundreds of thousands of yuan, and even the investment in individual renovation is greater than the investment in house purchase. Many families who refuse to accept new houses are also investing 10 thousand yuan and tens of thousands of yuan to decorate and improve their living environment.

At Wuhan 99 International Interior Decoration Expo, Gu Yuchuan, director of Hubei Economic and Trade Commission, calculated an account and said that there are 7 million families in the cities of the province, and the average investment for each family is 20,000 yuan according to 1/20 every year, and the total project amount reaches 6 billion yuan every year. The person in charge of the relevant departments said that at present, the home decoration industry in Hubei Province is increasing at an annual rate of 15%-20%, and it is estimated that the annual output value will reach 40 billion yuan by 20 10. It should also be noted that many families are waiting to see if they want to decorate and are afraid of spending money on gas. If the decoration market is standardized and a large-scale high-tech reputable company is formed as the main body of the market, people can really buy decoration enjoyment with money, and the decoration market has greater potential. For another example, many urban residential areas now have incomplete supporting facilities, lack of residential services and inconvenient life. The development of these supporting houses and the improvement of residential services are also the development of the real estate industry.

All the real estate activities in these fields need capital investment, labor investment and materials and equipment investment, which is conducive to starting the real estate industry, stimulating national economic growth, solving employment problems and increasing residents' income.

(4) Fully understand that currency purchase will start the real estate industry and stimulate economic growth. Buying a house with money is to cancel the housing distribution of the unit's physical welfare, and employees use their own monetary income to solve the housing problem. Its essence is to cancel welfare housing consumption and exchange labor income for housing. As for the housing form of residents, it is another matter. He can use his own currency to buy existing houses or auction houses in the market, exchange his other property for houses, buy building materials and labor to build houses, cooperate in building houses, rent houses, or raise funds from the unit to build houses. These forms are concrete manifestations of monetary house purchase, and they are all revolutions of welfare housing distribution consumption. Now some units have vast land, and employees are willing to raise funds to build houses. As long as the state finance does not spend and the unit does not subsidize, it should continue to raise funds to build houses.

In fact, some provinces, such as Jilin Province, now stipulate that workers should continue to raise funds to build houses, which effectively solves the housing problem and stimulates economic growth. We cannot oppose the reform of fund-raising housing and monetary housing reform, nor can we realize monetary housing reform.

Confuse form and content. The crux of the problem is that individuals spend money to buy houses. Now raising funds to build houses, the house price is roughly equal to or close to the market price. If employees are willing, why not? There is great potential for raising funds to build houses. A large unit in Wuhan invested nearly 100 million yuan in the first two times. And it is a week to raise funds to pay.

As far as the current national economic downturn is concerned, starting real estate is an effective measure to stimulate economic growth. It is easier said than done if it is mandatory for the employees of this unit to spend 100 million yuan to buy a house in the market. Why is there so much mobilization to raise funds to build houses? Mainly when I live, I don't lose my familiar environment and interpersonal relationship, I'm not afraid of buying a house fraud, I'm not worried about buying a house, and my work and life are convenient. The effectiveness and success of this form lies in the fact that the house price raised by fund-raising should not be higher than or roughly equivalent to the actual house price in the market economy, and the fund-raising should be fair and just. Otherwise, some people abuse power for personal gain, or the price is too high and too low, which not only violates the housing reform, but even undermines stability and unity. There is no pure thing in the world, and the realization form of monetary house purchase reform should be diversified. They can engage in real estate together, and they can also affect many departments and industries of the national economy and stimulate the growth of the national economy.

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