Interview with Cao Renchao

Cao Renchao talks about the financial market that has been galloping for 30 years.

Pang: Many readers and many of my clients have read your column. You used to give a lot of good advice and always make money. Why is personal finance so important? The younger generation didn't study at school. When should we start making personal financial plans? What should be the scope of personal finance?

Cao: In modern commercial society, if you want to live happily, I think it is best to have some money. For example, you want to invite your girlfriend to have a good candlelight dinner; Or you suddenly decide to travel overseas during the summer vacation; Children grow up and want to study abroad; Even if it is a marriage, you want it to be brilliant; If you have some money, I believe it will at least make your life more enjoyable. Pang: But how can I get the first money? What about the so-called first bucket of gold?

Cao: Personally, I often have a wish, and it is best to have the shadow of my father. If the previous generation worked hard and left us a legacy, it would be very happy. However, I believe that not everyone has the shadow of his father, and it is important to build wealth by himself.

Pang: Yes.

Cao: I remember when I graduated from middle school, I saw on TV that a bank bought an advertisement telling people to save money, saying that saving money can make people rich, and that saving money has pavilions and pavilions, and every little makes a mickle, which will make people rich in the future. At that time, I thought it was a big joke, because since the Second World War, Keynes's followers have dominated the decision-making power of all free economic countries in the world. They often use deficit budgets to stimulate economic growth, which has become the established policy of the central bank. In the long run, the deposit interest rate must be lower than the inflation rate. Take 100 yuan as an example, the bank will give you 5% interest, and you will get 105 yuan back one year later. But the inflation rate in Hong Kong is 8%, so your real purchasing power is only 96.6 yuan.

If you want to save all your lives, you are just fighting a battle that you will never win; Getting rich by saving is just a banker's tone, which is the biggest reason for the slow rise of personal finance.

Pang: If personal finance, as you said, wants investment to be higher than inflation, there are certainly two ways to do it. Some people may work hard, start a business hard, and even take the initiative to find investment opportunities with funds; But some people don't work so hard and only invest when they have spare money. What's the difference between the two methods?

Cao: As the saying goes, you have to suffer to be a master. Many people want to be bosses.

Pang: Yes!

Cao: Frankly speaking, there are only more than 500 listed companies. If you want to succeed, the chances are not that high. So, before you become a boss, you'd better ask yourself whether you are rich or not. As far as ordinary people are concerned, I advocate being a "middleman", that is, being a middle class and looking for a job. Deposit100000 should reach the goal in three years, and the rest is the welfare problem; If you want100000 yuan to appreciate by 20% every year, it will be 620000 in ten years, 3.8 million in twenty years and 23 million in thirty years.

Pang: impressive!

Cao: In other words, I believe many friends, most of whom can become multimillionaires in their lifetime. But to be clear, with the purchasing power of 23 million in 30 years, as for when to start investing in financial management, I think the sooner the better. At the age of 20, they were already multimillionaires at the age of 50. On the contrary, if you start at the age of 50, you won't be a multi-millionaire until you are 80. Pang: I tried it myself. When you earn some money at the age of 20, you can buy a beautiful car or spend all your money. How can I save the first money? For young people, sometimes it's really hard to do it. How can young people save enough investment capital when they are worried, not spending money indiscriminately, not taking their girlfriends to the theatre or going shopping?

Cao: It's hard to be a man, but it's easy to be a man. I turn on the TV myself, and sometimes I feel a little bored when I see many old people living on public assistance. I believe that most old people used to work hard. Why are they so miserable now? The biggest reason is that they don't know how to manage their personal finances. As a result, the money they have worked so hard to save has completely lost its purchasing power and become old and helpless under the erosion of inflation. It's really pathetic. Personally, I think it is the responsibility of the media to tell readers or listeners that if you start to suffer for those three years three years earlier, you will be very happy in your life; On the contrary, if you spend a lot of money from the beginning, I'm afraid that by the time you are 60 or 70 years old, you may become a "servant of mankind".

Pang: What's the difference between Cao Sheng and the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s? In fact, what is your past experience?

Cao: In the 1970s, it can be said that we experienced an era of high inflation. The most important point, I think, is the separation of 197 1 year from gold? So all physical objects have become investment targets, such as gold, antiques, famous paintings, real estate and stocks. It can be said that the whole policy is in terms of value preservation.

As Hong Kong people, the best investment is of course gold. 1970 gold cost more than 200 yuan an ounce, and by 1980 it rose to 4,800 yuan, an increase of nearly 20 times. It can be said that no other investment has such a big increase except oil. However, in the 1980s, American monetary policy changed, and the Federal Reserve used high interest rates to curb inflation, so the era of high inflation ended. On the other hand, interest rates have also dropped step by step from the peak period. In the case of falling interest rates, of course, it is best to buy houses and stocks. I remember in 1984 or 1985, when I asked someone to buy a unit, the price was more than 600 yuan a foot, but by the first quarter of 1994, the price per foot had reached more than 6,000 yuan.

Pang: tenfold increase!

Cao: Right. The Hang Seng Index was 800 points at that time, and reached 22,000 points in 1994, an increase of 15 times. Although it is not as good as the increase of gold price in the 1970s, it is believed to be another opportunity to get rich. The problem is that in the 1990s, Hong Kong's economy has also entered a mature stage, and those investments that increase by more than 10 times are hard to exist. It's like taking a cable car, going to the top of the mountain, and then looking down around Taiping Mountain. The scenery is infinite, but it's very difficult for you to go up a storey still higher! Pang: This metaphor is really appropriate! If I spend all my time walking around the top of the mountain and doing personal finance, inflation will still be low, about 7%. How should I invest now? Should we invest in China or look at the world?

Cao: It can be said that the period of rapid growth in Hong Kong has passed. I believe that we have finally entered a period of steady growth, and there will definitely be opportunities in the future, but it is not easy to grasp. According to the development experience of Hong Kong, I think the Asia-Pacific region is blooming everywhere. If we look at South Korea, Taiwan Province Province, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia from the experience of Hong Kong, they are repeating what happened in Hong Kong in the past 20 or 20 years. I believe that as experienced people, we have invested in these places.

Pang: Many Hong Kong people have been to Xingmatai today and often see these places. For example, when we went to Taiwan Province Province in the past, the local development was different from today, and so were other markets in ASEAN. I want to ask.

Cao: I personally believe that "young people don't work hard, but old people are sad", so I strongly encourage young people to scrimp and save for three years and start making financial planning as soon as they leave school. Because when people reach their prime, they usually have considerable burdens, such as getting married, having children, or being mortgaged.

Pang: So hard to save?

Cao: Saving is very difficult. As for the old people, I'm afraid time is not good for them. Therefore, I strongly encourage young people to make their own personal financial planning from the beginning, so that you can enjoy the golden age in middle age and old age. When you are old, you can pass on your twenty or thirty years' experience to the next generation to help them establish correct financial management methods. A family's life, big or small, will be very happy. Pang: That is to say, you should be bitter before sweet, eat less and suffer less first, and then the fruit is good!

Cao: Right.

Pang: What's the difference between a working class and an entrepreneur? What are the effects and differences between different genders on personal finance?

Cao: Wage earners and entrepreneurs are basically two kinds of people. The average entrepreneur, except your father's shadow, usually doesn't have enough money when starting a business. It would be quite difficult to ask him to take more money to make other investments at that time. Therefore, my only suggestion is that I hope he will work hard. As the saying goes, "if you work hard, the stone will open the door." I believe that entrepreneurship can be successful.

As for men and women, Hong Kong has basically reached the stage of equality between men and women, so there is not much difference. But in terms of personality, men and women are always different, so I advocate that it is best to have a husband and wife file, so that you don't have to worry about money in the future, and it is best to use a limited company, because it is not expensive to organize a limited company in Hong Kong; In this way, the man's character is enterprising, the woman's character is steady, and the combination is the most perfect.

Pang: Yes. This will have a balanced effect.

Cao: Right.

Pang: If you have property, how should people who already have a sum of money manage their money?

Cao: The biggest difference between different people in this world is whether you have money or not. Suppose you have more than10 million, it can be said that the role of money is getting smaller and smaller. For example, the house you live in may be bigger, or you drive a Mercedes and I drive a Japanese car. You have a yacht, but I don't. As for more than 100 million, my feeling is just a numbers game. It can be said that you can already buy what money can buy; As for what money can't buy, even if you have money, you can't buy it.

My idea is, for ordinary people, when your wealth has broken through the 10 million mark, I think the goal of life should be shifted from money to other places, such as your own health, whether your family life is happy, whether you care enough about your children, whether you help your friends and so on. , in order to avoid a lifetime of hard work, except money, a blank. Pang: Therefore, in addition to arranging money well, personal financial management should actually have a balanced life, so that life is happy.

Cao: Right.

Pang: But how can we make the first bucket of gold quickly? Which industry is better? In other words, there is an increase of more than ten percentage points every year, so I might as well go to China to do things. Or work in some emerging markets so that we can easily save money?

Cao: In the last decade or two, I have often received letters from readers asking me the same question. Usually my answer is: "I plant flowers with my heart, but I don't send them;" Unintentionally inserted willows into the shade. "I believe that 25 years ago, Mr. Alan Tam didn't know that singing could develop.

Pang: There is a red pavilion.

Cao: I'm sure Jackie Chan doesn't even know. It turns out that kung fu can be practiced. Today, Mr. Zhang Depei's achievements have clearly told us that tennis can be developed. So I think, don't force yourself to do things you don't like. In this world, man proposes and god disposes; As for your efforts to concentrate on the career you are interested in, I think your luck will come sooner or later. If you just want to get rich for a while and win a prize for a while, you will earn less money, but I believe it is not a long-term solution after all.

Pang: So it's best to work hard, find your own interests and play all the way. Sooner or later, you will have a chance to get ahead. The so-called dying. After 1997, China recovered Hong Kong's sovereignty. Has our personal finance strategy changed? See if China will gain more? Because China's economic growth is 10% every year, the speed is very high. What's your opinion?

Cao: I think that after Hong Kong's return to China, the era of British rule in Hong Kong has ended, and what everyone wants to see is the beginning of the era of Hong Kong rule. In the past, due to political factors, British capital occupied many advantages in Hong Kong's economy and investment, and this advantage will definitely be lost in the future. However, we hope to see a fair and competitive society in Hong Kong, which is what Mr. Xu Jiatun said in his article written with us: "One glass comes from platinum, and the other from capable people". I don't want to see Chinese-funded enterprises replace British capital, leaving behind a group of old people and bringing in a group of new wealth.

If Hong Kong can still maintain the system of fair competition in 1997, I believe the future of Hong Kong is still bright. If today's good civil service system is affected, the spirit of the rule of law that we firmly believe in is shaken, rich and powerful people are colluding step by step, and society is full of unfairness, then I am worried that the future of Hong Kong after 1997 will be pessimistic. So far, I don't know in which direction Hong Kong will develop, so I believe it will be a year or two before I can discuss the financial strategy with you in depth. Pang: Should we stay put for a while?

Cao: I think the Asia-Pacific region offers many good opportunities. So you might as well spend a year or two building your own understanding of the economic development of the entire Asia-Pacific region, which will definitely help you in the future.

Pang: Is there any winning investment method for personal finance? What can I do to make myself at least invincible?

Cao: I can't win! I have an invincible position, which is actually very simple. Make good use of it to stop erosion. If the price of any investment is lower than 10% or 15%, you will stop the erosion. I like to use the 18 moving average very much. After investing in any stock, if the stock price falls below the 18-day moving average, I usually sell it back.

Pang: sell it back?

Cao: Right.

Pang: Mr. Cao, what advice do you have for everyone to invest?

Cao: I remember Mr. Hu told me: "A governor in three days is rich in a thousand years", so there are no prophets in this world. Really successful people have good strategies, not blindly following the brigade; Therefore, it is better to know more about the incident beforehand than to regret it afterwards.

Pang: You must do your homework before investing!

Cao: Right.

Pang: Do your homework. A good beginning is half the battle.

Cao: Right, right!

Pang: This is very important. In terms of personal finance, Cao Shenggang said that when there is a price loss, it should stop. Everyone has heard a saying: "If you earn, you will earn a candy, and if you lose, you will lose the factory." This is worth remembering.

Cao: Right.

Pang: When making money, everyone will sell it if they earn less; But it sticks when it erodes, so it erodes even more!

Cao: Yes!

Pang: So anticorrosion is very important. Cao Sheng, how do you think personal finance is successful? How is it a failure?

Cao: Some people like to make quick money. I remember that when I helped Radio Television Hong Kong to do a program called "Great Finance and Great Strategy", I said something to them in the last episode, that is, "plant trees and flowers".

Pang: What is the relationship between planting trees and flowers and investment?

Cao: If a person wants to live a happy life, he will be happy to have a tree. This tree can provide a lot of fruit every year, and it will continue to take care of the next generation for you!

Pang: There is shade!

Cao: Yes!

Pang: But trees need a long time to grow. As the saying goes, "it takes ten years to plant trees, but it takes a hundred years to cultivate people"; To achieve short-term goals, or how to use short-term funds to earn the first bucket of gold?

Cao: So we need to plant flowers! The advantage of planting flowers is that after a month or two of hard work, you can see the results immediately, but a storm may make your results completely fail. Therefore, when a tree is not growing, you need to plant some flowers to help you repair it.

Pang: Besides, we should diversify our investments and diversify our flowers.

Cao: Yes!

Pang: Some flowers can grow in different seasons and their prices are different. I hope to make sure that your profit is better.

Cao: Yes!

Pang: There are some famous investment experts in the world, such as Warren Buffett, who himself emphasizes long-term investment. His reputation history is to earn14 billion dollars in assets within 40 years. In fact, you gave him 1 10,000 yuan, 1 10,000 yuan to invest, and earned 80 times in 40 years, which has reached 80 million. He believes that everyone can get rich by investing, as long as they are diligent, persistent, rational and self-disciplined! That's all! What's Cao Sheng's personal opinion on this?

Cao: It's amazing to hear what you said, because you said eighty times the return. There are tens of billions of funds! In fact, this is nothing more than welfare. As long as your wealth grows by 25% every year, you will be the second Buffett in 40 years. The key is to persevere, not one year, but 25% every year. After 40 years, your wealth can rival Buffett.

Pang: Better than him!

Cao: I think so.

Dating or living with an investment project

Pang: Good information equals wealth, making it easy for you to make money. However, due to the explosion of information, for example, there are so many investment experts in newspapers, some are optimistic and some are pessimistic. How do ordinary investors choose this information to help them invest? What do you suggest? Or have any experience?

Cao: I feel too tired with too much information. You all have dating experience. When two people don't meet, there are so many beautiful women in the world. But I can be your wife. I believe there is only one. Before getting married, try to choose one that suits your personality and ideal. In this way, if you live with her/him, I believe that marriage will be happy. On the other hand, if you go on like this, I believe your married life will not be happy until now.

Choosing good information, investment fund managers or stocks are all the same. You face hundreds of stocks and information explodes; Over a thousand funds, there are always some suitable for you. You slowly find a project that suits you, and you get along with it for a long time. I believe that in the next twenty or thirty years, everyone will be very happy.

Pang: That means you should spend more time at the beginning, watch it more, choose it more, date it at the same time, get to know it clearly, and then slowly entrust it to life and get along for a long time.

Cao: It's better to care more when dating, but we should stick together after marriage.

Pang: Finally, I want to ask a question. What's the difference between writing a column in a newspaper and teaching people to invest? How to say and do exactly the same, how to make money?

Cao: When I first started writing an investment column, I made all the mistakes that investors should make today. After my own painful exploration, I realized the difference between short-term and long-term It can be said that after more than 20 years, things like experience need time to accumulate. Young people might as well try more and see what suits them. But after a period of time, you will find your own investment strategy and stick to it. I believe that in old age, everyone's net worth should not be less!

Pang: There is a god of wealth in Japan. In fact, I think many thanks have revealed so much investment experience.

Cao: Thank you, thank you. On the last trading day of 20 10 stock market, both Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets closed two weighty Dayang lines. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2808.08 points, up1.76%; The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 2,458.55 points, up 2.63%. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges totaled 200.6 billion yuan, nearly 25% larger than Thursday.

Carefully observe the year-end closing point of the Shanghai Composite Index: 2808.08 points. A series of eight words is a coincidence?

Cao Renchao, formerly known as Cao Zhiming. He said he changed his name to because he wanted to be Superman Cao. Because in the mainland, investors regard him as a Hong Kong stock god.

Characteristics of the second stage of bull market

A shares are still the second stage of bull market from July 20 10 to the second half of 20 12, and the market performance is mainly plate rotation. The second bull market usually focuses on the development of individual stocks. Some stocks can rise by 100% to 200% in the second bull market, and some stocks can fall by 50% or more until the third bull market enters a full-scale rising period again. But the second stage of the bull market is very long, usually two years or more.

Referring to the two bull markets in Hong Kong in 1970s and 1980s, the second bull market in Hong Kong lasted for two years, while the first bull market in 1980s was affected by the return of Hong Kong's sovereignty, and the development of the stock market was not clear. For example, taking 65438+July 0984 as the second phase of Hong Kong bull market, it will take about two years to reach 65438+April 0986. Therefore, it is reasonable to believe that the second bull market of Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, which started on July 2, 20 10, can last until the middle of 20 12, and will enter the third bull market in the second half of 20 12. The third stage of the bull market was completed at 20 13 or 20 14, and the whole bull market was completed at 6 124 when it reached the A-share high in 2007.

Adjust the support level

20 10, 165438+ 10 month, 1 1, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a high of 3 186, and 20 1 1 sooner or later.

At the current point, will you choose to buy or sell, and where is it?

Foreign or Hong Kong stock markets allow short selling, which is most suitable for hedging in the second stage of bull market, that is, buying stocks in bullish industries and shorting stocks in bearish industries at the same time; Or buy low-priced stocks at the same time, short the stocks that have risen too high, and make profits in individual development. Retail investors generally do not do well in this respect and should invest in funds with excellent performance.

Operation plate stock

Because I don't live in the mainland, I can't make an in-depth analysis of the plate. In this regard, we can refer to the opinions of local analysts and look for sectors suitable for investors to invest. However, I think that at 20 1 1, the China stock market is still dominated by plate rotation, with individual industries speculating on ups and downs and low-priced stocks speculating on high-priced stocks falling.

What impact will the sudden interest rate hike by the central bank have on the stock market at Christmas?

Once again, raising interest rates and cutting interest rates should be seen together with the increase in CPI. 20 1 1 China 10, the CPI increased by 5. 1%, and it is expected to reach 6% in the first half of 201/kloc-0. The old interest rate is lower than 6%, indicating that the interest rate is still negative. Funds are unwilling to return to bank deposits to collect interest, or they will look for opportunities in the stock market and the property market. If the old interest rate rises to 6%, global hot money will flood into China to earn interest and RMB appreciation profits. The People's Bank of China has been caught in a dilemma, and it seems that it can only continue to maintain negative interest rates (that is, the interest rate is lower than the CPI increase). In the negative interest rate environment, the decline of property prices is extremely limited, and the stock market will only fluctuate into the box, not fall sharply.

The escalation of the conflict between the DPRK and the ROK, what impact will it have on China's stock market in such a big environment?

I believe that the European debt crisis will spread further. What is very certain is that the global economic recovery is slow and the contradiction between the DPRK and the ROK still exists. However, the above factors have limited influence on China stock market. Because since 2009, China has entered a domestic demand-driven economy. This shows that China has greatly reduced its dependence on the US and European markets, and the domestic demand economy has driven the economy for about 10- 15 years, which means that from 2009 to 2024, China's economy is optimistic. This has also become the basis for supporting the Shanghai Composite Index to enter the second stage of the bull market from July 20 10.

Retail operation strategy

However, due to the government's continuous regulation of real estate, the price of gold has also been at a historical high. In this case, how should investors manage their money, such as continuing to buy a house or gold, or have other more suitable financial strategies?

Inflation is irreversible, but the impact of inflation on property prices, gold and stocks is not what most people think. For example, from 1976 to 198 1, the inflation rate in Hong Kong was as high as 15%, but in that year, both property prices and the stock market rose with the gold price. From July 1984 to June 1987, the inflation rate in Hong Kong was very moderate. During the same period, real estate prices rose, gold prices soared and the stock market soared. Take 2002-2004 as an example. At that time, the inflation rate was extremely low, and the stock market, property prices and gold prices all rose. In other words, the relationship between inflation and real estate prices, gold prices and the stock market is very complicated.

Property prices will not fall because of government repression, and will not rise because of government support, because property prices have their own cycles. For example, from 1990 to 1997, the Hong Kong government kept suppressing the property market in Hong Kong, but property prices in Hong Kong rose the most. From 1994 to 2008, the Japanese government continued to support Japanese property prices, hoping that they would stop falling and rebound, but Japanese property prices remained unchanged at most during 14 years. Only when the government supplies a large amount of land, such as 198 1, can the Hong Kong government bring down the property prices; Or limit the supply of land. For example, from April 1985 to June 1997, the Hong Kong government only restricted the sale of 50 hectares of land every year, which greatly reduced the land supply in Hong Kong and lowered the property prices. In a word, the rise and fall of real estate prices are determined by supply and demand factors, not temporary government measures, as are gold prices and stock markets. Study the cycle of various investments, and don't follow suit.

The purpose of investment is to make money, not to fight inflation. Because the government has the ability to increase the money supply, inflation will always exist. Investment should learn how to grasp the ups and downs of various investments, rather than fighting inflation. Take the United States as an example Since 1945, the purchasing power of the US dollar has lost 3% on average every year. In the United States, property prices, gold prices and the stock market do not rise by 3% every year, but some days go up and some days go down. Since 1978, when China implemented the reform and opening-up policy, the purchasing power of RMB has been declining. In China, real estate prices, gold prices and the stock market have both gone up and down. Most of the above investment projects have little to do with the increase of CPI.