The volume of residential transactions in first-tier cities has greatly increased. What is the obvious signal of the rise in luxury house prices?

"Shanghai's second-hand housing turnover in June 5438+February approached 40,000 sets, which is a very high turnover. The current market is very similar to when I first entered the business in 20 16. " Chen Hong (a pseudonym), a real estate agent in Shanghai, described the current Shanghai real estate market. According to the data of Yiju Research Institute, from June 5438 to February 2020, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shanghai was about 39,000 sets, a record high for many years, and the annual transaction volume of second-hand houses reached a record high of nearly four years.

The volume of second-hand housing transactions increased, especially in the second half of the year, which was staged simultaneously in four first-tier cities in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. According to the data provided by RealData, in 2020, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in first-tier cities increased by 23% year-on-year, setting a new high in the past three years. Combined with the data of various institutions, the overall housing prices in first-tier cities are relatively stable, but the prices of high-quality housing in the core areas, such as school districts and high-end housing, have increased significantly. Why does the real estate market in first-tier cities pick up in the cold winter? What should I do in the future?

The turnover has reached a new high in recent years.

At the beginning of 2020, the epidemic once had an impact on the real estate market. The new house sales department was shut down, and the second-hand house could not be seen because of the closed management of the community. Market sentiment is relatively pessimistic. However, with the effective control of the epidemic, the demand rebounded rapidly, and the market went out of a wave of first suppression and then promotion, and there was a "tail jump" phenomenon in the second half of the year.

Chen Hong told Zhongxin Jingwei client that the new housing market in Shanghai has been warming up since August 2020. In addition to the suburban market, many projects in urban areas are "one room is hard to find", and the proportion of popular real estate can reach one to ten.

"Last month, I had a customer and his fiancee come to our shop to look at the house. At that time, I didn't say I would buy it right away, but when I saw that the market was so hot, I went home to raise money and finally borrowed 6,543,803 yuan. If the market is not hot, he won't buy it if he has money, let alone chip in temporarily. " Chen Hong also said, "In February 2020, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shanghai approached 40,000 sets, which is a very high transaction volume. The current market is very similar to when I first entered the business in 20 16. "

According to the data of Yiju Research Institute, in June 5438+February, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shanghai was about 39,000 sets, up 20.3% from the previous month and 96.2% from the same period last year, and the transaction volume reached a multi-year high. The turnover of second-hand houses in the whole year was about 302,000 sets, up 27.0% year-on-year, reaching a new high of nearly four years.

According to the data provided by RealData, in 2020, the volume and price performance of second-hand houses in first-tier cities are obviously better than those in low-energy cities, and the demand is obviously picking up. The overall transaction volume of second-hand houses increased by 23% year-on-year. Specifically, Shanghai's annual second-hand residential transaction volume increased the most, about 26%; Followed by Guangzhou, the turnover increased by 25%; Shenzhen grew by 23% year-on-year, and the regulation in the second half of 2020 significantly cooled the market demand. The year-on-year growth rate of transactions in the second half of the year narrowed from 4 1% in the first half to 1 1%. The year-on-year growth rate of Beijing's transaction volume is slightly lower, reaching 16%, but both the transaction volume and growth rate are the highest since 20 17 years.

"The first-tier and four-city property markets have experienced strict regulation from the end of 20 16 to the beginning of 20 17. In the past three years, they are generally in a long repair period after regulation. In 2020, the epidemic hit the economy hard. The loose monetary policy, the downward mortgage interest rate, the release of the backlog of demand, accelerated the market repair. At the same time, first-tier cities have great economic development potential and strong property preservation ability, which is more favored by capital. In 2020, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in four first-tier cities hit a new high of at least three years. The contradiction between housing supply and demand in Shanghai and Shenzhen has tightened, resulting in a sharp increase in average prices. " RealData judgment.

In the new housing market, based on the data of many institutions, the transaction area of new commercial housing in Beijing will increase by 5% year-on-year in 2020; The transaction area of new commercial housing in Shanghai is about 9178,000 square meters, up 23. 1% year-on-year, setting a new high in four years. The number of first-hand residential buildings in Guangzhou was 100905, up 27% year-on-year, the second highest since 20 10, second only to 2016; There were 45,384 new residential transactions in Shenzhen, up 19.8% year-on-year, setting a new high in 20 16 years.

The price of high-quality housing has risen sharply.

Although the transaction volume of new and second-hand houses in four first-tier cities increased significantly, the overall price increase remained stable.

According to data from Shanghai Zhongyuan Research Institute, the average transaction price of new residential buildings in Shanghai in 2020 was 56,004 yuan/square meter, up slightly by 4% year-on-year. The market as a whole has risen steadily, with little fluctuation under the epidemic situation. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the price index of second-hand houses in Shanghai rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 5.5% year-on-year in June 2020.

According to RealData, the average transaction price of new commercial housing in Beijing in 2020 was 48 147 yuan/m2, up 3% year-on-year, which was basically the same as that in 20 19. Although the absolute level and growth rate of second-hand residential transactions have reached the highest since 20 17 years, the average transaction price in the city is 60,485 yuan/square meter, down slightly by 0.5% year-on-year, and the price has remained relatively stable for three consecutive years.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, analyzed the client of Sino-Singapore Jingwei. On the whole, house prices in four first-tier cities remained stable, with a slight upward trend. However, the market performance is obviously divided, and some areas are hot. For example, the price of school districts in Beijing and Shanghai has increased greatly, but the housing in the suburbs is tepid. In the first half of 2020, the rise in housing prices in Shenzhen caused widespread concern, but there was a big gap between the east and the west.

Chen Hong also said, "A colleague bought a house in the outer ring of Shanghai without a school district and subway, which increased by 5% this year. And a customer in Pudong, his house rose by almost 30%. The luxury home market is relatively "crazy". An owner who is going to sell a 20-million-yuan luxury house has raised the listing price by 2 million yuan. What he wants is how to sell 500 thousand more in case the customer is not sensitive to the price. "

RealData pointed out that the second-hand housing market in Beijing is characterized by "the volume of transactions in the peripheral urban areas is rising, and the prices in the central urban areas are rising" and "the prices with high total prices are falling". In addition to the four suburban counties, there are three districts in the 12 urban area, namely Haidian, Xicheng and Chaoyang. Dongcheng is basically flat, and the rest of the urban areas are falling. Judging from the changes of property prices in different total price segments, except for the average transaction price of houses with a price of more than 7.5 million yuan, which increased by 1% year-on-year, the average prices of other price segments all decreased year-on-year. It can be seen that in a relatively stable market, the prices of high-quality properties are more resistant to falling.

According to Guangzhou Zhongyuan Research and Development Department, in 2020, the average online sign price of second-hand residential buildings in Guangzhou was 288 15 yuan /m2, up 7.8% year-on-year, and the obvious increase was mainly in the central city, with the increase rates of Tianhe, Haizhu and Yuexiu reaching 15.5%, 9.0% and 8.7% respectively. As the favorable planning in Zengcheng District has been digested in advance, and the new talent policies in other districts have been upgraded to grab customers, the average price of online signing in this district has not risen but fallen, down 6.5% year-on-year.

The price of improved high-end residential buildings in Guangzhou has increased greatly. Guangzhou Zhongyuan Research and Development Department said that many customers have turned their investment eyes to high-quality real estate with high value preservation ability, such as traditional high-end sectors (with high-quality educational resources, location conditions or luxury property) such as Zhujiang New Town, Binjiang East and Dongfeng East, and their prices have basically increased by more than 65,438+00% year-on-year.

"The transaction volume of villas, luxury houses and high-end houses in first-tier cities is relatively good, and the proportion of improved and investment-oriented demand has increased, which is not only related to changes in market structure, but also inseparable from the centralized supply of luxury houses and the liberalization of price limit policies." Xie Yifeng, Dean of China Urban Real Estate Research Institute, told Zhongxin Jingwei Client.

Will there be "Xiaoyangchun"?

Quantity and price are interrelated. Will the volume of first-tier cities in the second half of the year have an impact on the next price trend?

Zhang Dawei believes that the increase in transaction volume in first-tier cities is the recovery after regulation, and the transaction volume has only reached the high point since 20 16 or 20 17, which is not a particularly high level. At present, with the promotion of school districts, housing prices in some areas are still rising. However, if there is no new control policy and the credit policy is not obviously tightened, the market may usher in a wave of market after the Spring Festival.

Zhang Dawei also said: "In 20 15 years, house prices rose because of the relatively loose credit policy. The key to the future price trend depends on the easing of credit. " Xie Yifeng believes that the real estate market in first-tier cities has stepped out of the epidemic trough and entered an inflection point. Whether to continue to rise or continue to fall depends on future supervision and monetary policy.

RealData predicts that the growth rate of new house transactions in 202 1 first-tier cities will be stable at 5%- 10%, and the average market price will keep growing; The price increase of second-hand houses in Shanghai and Shenzhen will narrow, and Beijing and Guangzhou will show a moderate increase.

The above-mentioned research institutions further analyzed that since the second half of 2020, the macro-monetary policy has returned to normal, and it is expected that this trend of 202 1 will continue, and the credit environment of the property market has bottomed out. At the same time, the financial leverage reduction in the real estate market continues to deepen, and housing finance is subject to stricter supervision; 202 1, the long-term regulation mechanism of real estate will continue to deepen, the monitoring and early warning of house prices will be strengthened, and the sustained and sharp rise of local house prices will face precise regulation; In 2020, many cities will increase the supply of residential land. For example, the transaction volume of residential land in Shenzhen and Guangzhou will increase by 3 times and 1 times respectively. In 2026, 5438+0, the supply of new housing market will increase, and the contradiction between supply and demand of second-hand housing market will be alleviated. By the end of 2020, the cycle of new houses in Beijing will be 17 months, and there are still more than 60% competing houses waiting to enter the market. It is unlikely that the price of second-hand houses will rise sharply in 2026, 5438+0.

Source: Zhongxin Jingwei