Some listed real estate enterprises have hidden debts in "hidden corners"

Taihe Group, which is in financial crisis, recently disclosed the latest debt situation of the company in its reply to the annual report of Shenzhen Stock Exchange: As of July 7, Taihe Group's overdue debt was 27.065 billion yuan, accounting for 65,438+037.38% of Taihe Group's audited assets in the latest year; At the same time, the debt due in 2020 is 555 1 1 billion yuan. The Economic Information Daily reporter checked the data of the annual report of Taihe Group in the last two years, and the company's asset-liability ratio was continuously lowered at 20 18 and 20 19.

The reporter's investigation found that the rights and interests of high-leverage expansion of some listed real estate enterprises increased significantly, resulting in a decline in net debt ratio. Behind these seemingly "rights and interests", it is suspected that there are financial methods such as "clear shares and real debts". Since the beginning of this year, under the background of adhering to the bottom line of "staying and not speculating", due to multiple factors such as the downturn of the industry and the impact of the epidemic, the solvency and cash flow of some housing enterprises have continued to be under pressure.

The debt scale has increased by double digits, but the debt ratio has remained stable.

The reporter of the Economic Information Daily found that there are "hidden corners" in the debts of some listed real estate enterprises. These enterprises make the debt ratio present an "illusion" by increasing equity and other financial means.

The financial report of Zheng Rong real estate in 20 19 shows that by the end of 20 19, the total liabilities of Zheng Rong real estate were138159 million yuan, an increase of11.. However, the company's net debt ratio in 20 19 was 75.2%, which was only slightly increased by 1.2 percentage points compared with 74% in 20 18. While the total liabilities and loan scale are increasing, the company's net debt ratio remains stable.

The person in charge of Zheng Rong Finance said that this is inseparable from the "explosive" growth of the company's minority shareholders' rights. According to the company's 20 19 financial report, the increase in the rights and interests of minority shareholders in Zheng Rong real estate mainly comes from the properties developed by 39 joint ventures and associated enterprises with relatively small rights and interests in the consolidated statements. Zheng Rong real estate accounts for 0/3% to 35% of its equity/kloc-,and only three projects account for nearly 50% of its equity.

The insiders believe that the financial method of "whoever trades is consolidated" may inflated the owner's equity, but it actually hides the liabilities. According to the net debt ratio = (interest-bearing liabilities-monetary funds)/owner's equity, some housing enterprises reduce the net debt ratio by increasing the denominator.

According to the data of 50 typical listed real estate enterprises selected by Ke Rui Research Center, by the end of 20 19, the total interest-bearing liabilities of 50 typical listed real estate enterprises were 4,694.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, and 86% of typical listed real estate enterprises increased.

It is worth noting that although the total interest-bearing liabilities of listed real estate enterprises show a "double-digit" growth, the overall debt ratio is stable. According to the statistics of China Index Academy, the average asset-liability ratio of listed real estate enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 68.8% in 20 19, while the average asset-liability ratio of listed real estate enterprises in Hong Kong in the Mainland only increased by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year to 75.5%.

According to the statistics of Ke Rui Research Center, the total equity of listed real estate enterprises increased by 265,438+0.67% in 2065,438+09, which was higher than interest-bearing debt. Insiders pointed out that the decline in the net debt ratio of some listed real estate enterprises was mainly due to the substantial increase in the scale of equity, which was higher than the increase in interest-bearing liabilities. This phenomenon deserves the vigilance of the regulatory authorities.

"The rise in the rights and interests of housing enterprises, on the one hand, comes from the rise in equity financing of 20 19 housing enterprises; On the other hand, with more and more cooperation or mergers and acquisitions between housing enterprises, the scale and proportion of minority shareholders' rights and interests may be repeatedly calculated or even falsely reported, resulting in inflated rights and interests and decreased net debt ratio. " A real estate executive said.

Perpetual debt has become a "hidden lever" to avoid debt depression, pushing up risks.

Since the beginning of this year, "housing is not speculation" is still the main tone of property market regulation, and the real estate financing environment has not been relaxed. The reporter found that under the background of hopeless expectation of financing relaxation, some listed real estate enterprises are suspected of making low debt levels through "clear shares and real debts" in order to obtain higher ratings, lower financing interest rates and smoother financing channels.

The "Economic Information Daily" reporter noted that many housing enterprises with the background of central enterprises have greatly increased the issuance of perpetual bonds. The data shows that in 20 19, the issuance scale of perpetual bonds in the real estate industry was about 47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of nearly 30%. Among them, among the former 15 housing enterprises, the perpetual bonds of China Merchants Shekou, Poly Real Estate and China Resources Land all increased substantially, reaching 654.38+09 billion yuan, 654.38+0568 billion yuan and 654.38+000 billion yuan respectively, up by 65.438+076.5438+0.43% year on year.

"If the perpetual debt is included in the debt, the net debt ratio of listed real estate enterprises in 20 19 will rise sharply. However, in practice, most housing enterprises count it as equity, so the net debt ratio of more than half of listed housing enterprises actually rises. " Lin Bo, general manager of Ke Rui Research Center, said.

"Although perpetual bonds have reduced the net debt ratio of enterprises to a certain extent and optimized the financial statements, they will actually have future debt repayment pressure on housing enterprises." Huang Yu, executive vice president of China Index Academy, believes that with the maturity of a large number of debts, the short-term debt repayment pressure of listed real estate enterprises will continue to increase.

Huatai Securities research report pointed out that in recent years, off-balance-sheet financing has become one of the important financing methods for real estate enterprises, which is reflected in joint venture financing and "debt-clearing" financing. Off-balance-sheet financing will hide the debts of housing enterprises, and mislead relevant departments to overestimate the solvency of housing enterprises by optimizing financial indicators.

Wu Jianbin, the head of the research group of Yiju Wharton PMBA Real Estate Investment and Financing Group and the executive vice president of Sunshine City, revealed at the project conference of "Surfing the Future in Surfing Times" that the net debt ratio of small and medium-sized housing enterprises with sales scale below 65.438 billion yuan, especially below 50 billion yuan, is relatively high, and some enterprises have actually reached 200% or even 300%.

"In the upward phase of the real estate industry, it doesn't matter if the debt ratio is higher. It is no problem to use financing to promote business development. However, from 20 18, the industry entered a "sideways" stage of steady development, and the profit rate showed a downward trend, with an annual decline of about 1%. At present, the overall gross profit margin of the market is around 25%, the net profit margin of small and medium-sized housing enterprises is 7% to 8%, and some small enterprises are even worse. The central government will not relax the real estate control policy under the tone of' housing and not speculation'. In the case that the regulation of the real estate market continues to be tight, high-debt housing enterprises are very risky. " Wu Jianbin said.

The financing environment continues to tighten, and the solvency of housing enterprises is facing a greater test.

The reporter found that in the market environment where financing channels continue to tighten and financing costs continue to increase, housing enterprises have ushered in the peak period of debt repayment, and the debt repayment pressure has increased sharply, and the capital chain is facing a test.

The scale of debts of housing enterprises has obviously accelerated. According to Wind's statistics, the total liabilities of 132 A-share listed real estate enterprises in 20 19 reached 948610/billion yuan, up 13.28% from 82,263.74 million yuan in 20 18 years. Among them, the debts of 13 enterprises exceeded 200 billion yuan, an increase of 1 8 enterprises. The total liabilities of Vanke and Greenland Holdings both exceeded 1 trillion yuan, Vanke reached 14593.5 trillion yuan, Greenland10/43.1400 million yuan, Poly Real Estate also reached 803.686 billion yuan, and Xincheng Holdings reached 400/kloc. It is worth mentioning that among listed real estate enterprises in Hong Kong, Evergrande and Country Garden also have debts exceeding one trillion yuan. The total liabilities of Evergrande China are18,480.4 billion yuan, and those of Country Garden are as high as16,885.44 billion yuan.

Judging from the debt ratio, there are 1 1 companies whose debt ratio exceeds 85%. Five of them are over 90%, namely *ST Songjiang debt ratio is 94.72%, Diancheng investment debt ratio is 93.75%, Shang Lu development debt ratio is 9 1.62%, Beijing Investment Development debt ratio is 9 1.05%, and Zhongnan Construction debt ratio is 90.77%.

In terms of net debt ratio, the net debt ratio of as many as 36 real estate enterprises exceeds 100%. Among them, *ST Songjiang is as high as 827%, Yunnan Chengtou is 732.48%, Beijing Investment Development is 7 10.29%, Oceanwide Holdings is 277.33% and Taihe Group is 248.33%.

While the debt has risen sharply, the financing cost of housing enterprises has also increased. Since the second half of 20 19, the average financing cost of housing enterprises has risen sharply. In 2020, with the continuous tightening of financing supervision and the arrival of debt repayment peak, most listed real estate enterprises began to intentionally control their debts and reduce leverage.

Xu Jiayin, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Evergrande, said at the performance meeting that the company will focus on reducing its liabilities in the next three years. Interest-bearing liabilities will drop by 654.38+050 billion yuan every year on average, and the total liabilities of Evergrande will drop below 400 billion yuan by 2022. The management of SZSE Caesar also made it clear that the goal in 2020 is to reduce the debt ratio to 120% or less. Li Silian, co-chairman of R&F Real Estate, said that the company's debt ratio will drop by 65,438+05% this year.

Due to the contraction of diversified financing channels, the financing cost of housing enterprises has shown an overall upward trend. According to the statistics of Ke Rui Research Center, from the financing cost of 50 typical listed real estate enterprises at the end of 20 19, the financing interest rate of 60% companies increased, and the average cost increased by 0.33 percentage point year-on-year to 7. 13%. "In 2065438+2009, domestic and overseas financing was tightened, and financing costs generally increased. At the same time, low-cost corporate bonds issued from 20 15 to 20 17 have expired one after another, and the overall financing cost has risen. "

Ding Zuyu, CEO of Yiju Enterprise Group, said that since the beginning of this year, the scale of real estate financing has decreased compared with the same period of last year, and the financing pressure of housing enterprises has continued to increase. "There is an upper limit on the amount and proportion of real estate loans from banks and other financial institutions. If overseas debts are drastically reduced, the cash flow of housing enterprises will be stretched. "

Since April this year, overseas financing of major housing enterprises has basically stagnated. Statistics from Ke Holdings Inc show that in the first four months, the bond financing of real estate enterprises was 50 1 billion yuan, down by 10% year-on-year, and the new overseas debt was zero. Affected by the decrease in overseas bond issuance in April, the amount of overseas bond issuance from June 5438+0 to April decreased by 13% compared with the same period of last year, the third lowest in the past decade. Although it recovered in May and June, its vitality has been hurt. In this context, domestic equity financing, perpetual bonds and asset securitization products have become important sources of supplementary funds for housing enterprises.

Ding Zuyu said that since the third and fourth quarters of this year were the peak of overseas debt repayment. The proportion of innovative products such as domestic equity financing, asset securitization and debt financing may further increase.

To make matters worse, housing enterprises will usher in the peak of debt repayment in the second half of the year. "The real estate industry is sluggish. In order to reduce risks, the willingness of housing enterprises to increase leverage has generally decreased. " Lin Bo believes that this year we should pay close attention to the solvency and cash flow of developers to avoid sudden "shock" of housing enterprises.

Taihe, for the interest-bearing liabilities due in 2020, there is a certain liquidity risk in the solvency of the company. Recently, due to limited liquidity and narrow financing channels, Fitch downgraded Taihe Group twice in a row.

Moody's adjusted the outlook of China's real estate industry to negative, because the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic has put pressure on real estate demand and inventory level, and the overseas financing environment is still unclear. "The market shock caused by the epidemic is intensifying investors' risk aversion, leading to the narrowing of overseas financing channels, and some developers with weak liquidity and credit quality face higher debt risks." Moody's senior analyst He Sixian said.

Wang Xi, head of the PMBA Strategy and Organizational Change Research Group of Yiju Wharton and president of Zhujiang Investment Group, said frankly that the scale of housing enterprises is getting bigger and bigger, and the profits are getting less and less. "Housing enterprises do not exist for profit now, but need cash flow to continue their lives. This is a difficult point facing the real estate industry. "