How to comprehensively and accurately grasp the characteristics and changes of the current economic situation in China?

20 10 analysis of China's economic situation and problems worthy of attention.

◆ Characteristics of China's economic operation in 2009

Since 2009, faced with the severe challenges brought by the international financial crisis and the extremely complicated international and domestic situation, the China government has adhered to the macro-control policy orientation, and adhered to a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. With the implementation of the package plan to deal with the crisis and maintain steady and rapid economic development in the fourth quarter of 2008, the downward trend of economic growth has been rapidly reversed, and the momentum of economic stabilization and recovery has gradually increased, with obvious overall improvement trend and remarkable results.

1, China's economic growth is accelerating quarter by quarter, and the trend of stable to good is basically established.

In the first three quarters, the GDP was 21781700 million yuan, an increase of 7.7% at comparable prices. Quarterly, GDP increased by 6. 1% in the first quarter, 7.9% in the second quarter and 8.9% in the third quarter. The continuous rise for two consecutive quarters indicates that the trend of macroeconomic stabilization has been clear.

2. The rapid recovery is mainly driven by domestic demand, with strong growth in investment and consumption.

According to estimates, in the data of the first three quarters of 2009, the contribution of consumption to economic growth was 4 percentage points, and the contribution rate of investment was 7.3 percentage points. In the three quarters, the export's pull on GDP was negative 3.6 percentage points. In 2009, China's economy stabilized and rebounded, and domestic demand played a key role.

3. The decline in imports and exports narrowed, and the low level of exports stabilized.

Foreign trade data in the first three quarters show that China's exports have stabilized at a low level. 165438+1In the month of October, China's total import and export volume increased by 9.8%, achieving a positive monthly growth for the first time. 165438+1In the month of October, the national export decreased by 1.2% year-on-year and increased by 2.6% quarter-on-quarter.

4.CPI and PPI rose month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline narrowed.

The data shows that in the first three quarters, China's consumer price (CPI) decreased 1. 1% year-on-year, and the factory price (PPI) of industrial products decreased by 6.5% year-on-year. Both of them showed a downward trend from the previous month, and the year-on-year decline narrowed.

◆ Analysis of China's economic development environment in 2065438+00.

20 10 the internal driving force of China's economic growth is still strong, and the economy still has favorable conditions for achieving steady and rapid growth. However, we should also see that economic operation still faces many difficult factors, and some long-term contradictions and problems need to be solved through deep-seated reform and adjustment.

(A) Analysis of external conditions

20 10 the external environment of China's economic growth has improved, but it will take a long time for external demand to resume growth. Under the effect of "fierce drugs" prescribed by various countries, the global economy shows signs of initial recovery from serious illness. After several quarters of recession, the American economy shows signs of growth. All the major economies in the world have experienced different degrees of growth. Major economies such as the United States, Europe and Japan have begun to show signs of recovery, but they still face many challenges such as soaring unemployment rate, sharp fiscal deficit and sluggish consumption. The economic stimulus plan will also shrink or withdraw one after another, and the comprehensive economic recovery will be a tortuous and long process.

(B) Analysis of internal conditions

1, the domestic consumer market has a vast space to expand, but it is difficult.

The domestic consumer market still has great potential: First, the rural consumer market will start rapidly and form a new economic growth point. Secondly, the improvement of urban residents' income and consumer confidence is conducive to stimulating this round of consumption upgrading. However, under the current severe employment situation and the difficulty of increasing farmers' income, and at the same time constrained by multiple factors such as future expenditure and consumption habits, it is difficult to maintain a high level of consumption growth in China.

2. There is potential for domestic investment growth, but private investment is unwilling.

China's domestic investment growth has certain potential, which is mainly manifested in the following aspects: employment pressure and the urgent desire to improve the status quo have formed a high investment enthusiasm; The expansion of industrial scale and the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization brought by the development of real estate and automobile industry provide a broad space for investment; The huge national savings and foreign investment provide sufficient financial support for investment. But at present, the driving force of economic growth mainly depends on investment, and the growth rate of government investment is much faster than that of private investment. The key to achieving obvious economic recovery is to promote private investment.

3. The policy of stabilizing exports has achieved remarkable results, but the foreign trade situation is not optimistic.

First of all, the pressure of RMB appreciation has increased recently, and the dollar has depreciated sharply. It is difficult to fundamentally change the weak pattern of the US dollar in the medium and long term. China has the largest foreign exchange reserves and a huge trade surplus in the world. Recently, the pressure of RMB appreciation has increased, which is not conducive to China's export recovery. Secondly, international trade frictions have intensified. International trade protectionism is heating up, and China has become the biggest victim. In the future, it is unrealistic for China to reproduce the sustained high-speed growth of exports of 20%, 30% or more.

There are sufficient conditions for industrial growth, but structural adjustment is very difficult.

On the one hand, there are sufficient conditions for industrial economic growth: the inertia of profit growth of industrial enterprises still exists; The improvement of corporate governance and management level; The acceleration of consumption upgrading and the rapid growth of investment will increase the demand for manufacturing products. On the other hand, the rapid industrial growth has also brought about overcapacity, which is a chronic disease in China's economy. The exponential growth of exports in the past few years has absorbed China's ever-increasing excess capacity.

5. The fiscal and financial environment is good, but inflation expectations are gradually emerging.

20 10 China faces a relatively stable and good financial environment. First of all, financial strength and foreign exchange reserve strength have been gradually enhanced. In recent years, China's fiscal revenue has shown a rapid growth trend, and its financial strength has been continuously enhanced. Secondly, China's foreign debt service ratio, debt ratio and other indicators continue to fall. In addition, the financial supervision system has been continuously improved. However, we should also see that the expectation and pressure of national inflation will gradually increase in 20 10.

◆ Forecast of China's economic trend in 2065438+00.

The change of 20 10 total demand will show a moderate upward trend, and with the recovery of the world economy, the situation of foreign trade exports will change obviously. In this context, the economic growth in 20 10 will maintain a steady upward trend.

1. The investment is still very large.

The sustainability of 20 10 investment growth is still optimistic. The main reasons are as follows: First, the growth rate of newly started projects has reached 8 1. 1%, indicating that there will still be a large number of investment projects under construction to support faster investment growth in the future; Second, of the 487.5 billion yuan of new financial investment arranged by the central government in 2009, about 200 billion yuan has not been put into use, so there is a large space for government investment; Third, with the gradual recovery of external demand, the relevant policies of the government to support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises have been effective, and private investment is expected to pick up further.

2. Consumption growth will further accelerate.

20 10 with the development of consumer credit market in China, the increase of government expenditure on education and medical care, the improvement of social security system, the implementation and promotion of new rural construction, the release of consumption potential in central and western regions, and other policies and structural reforms to promote consumption will play a more powerful role in promoting residents' consumption.

3. Exports are expected to turn from negative to positive.

From the analysis of the current situation, the world economy is expected to recover slowly in 20 10, and the environment facing China's foreign trade development tends to improve as a whole. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economic growth will be 3. 1% in 20 10. With the remarkable achievements of policies and measures to stabilize financial markets in various countries, the risks in financial markets have been reduced, and the lending confidence of financial institutions has been enhanced.

There will be no serious inflation.

Faced with the abundant money supply and the rising international commodity prices in 2009, "20 10 is bound to inflation" is a view with great market appeal. In a closed economy, inflation may be due to the central bank's use of the right to issue money, injecting too much liquidity into the market, or it may be due to the expansion of credit supply by commercial banks, which leads to monetary expansion under the amplification effect of the currency multiplier. However, in an open system, inflation is not only caused by the above two reasons, but also driven by external factors. Based on the existence of domestic and global overcapacity and insufficient total demand, we think that there will be no serious inflation at 20 10.

5. Proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy will continue, and structural adjustment will be the main starting point.

In 20 10, China will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy, but in 20 10, the expenditure structure will be more optimized, and investment in people's livelihood and social security will be increased. The trend of 20 10 monetary policy has become the focus of attention.

20 10 Continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, guide financial institutions to reasonably grasp the pace of credit supply, and give full play to the positive role of monetary policy in supporting steady and rapid economic development. It is necessary to conduct open market operations in a timely and appropriate manner to maintain a reasonable and abundant liquidity in the banking system.

It is estimated that GDP growth will reach about 9% in 20 10; From June 5438+0 to June 5438+00, 2009, the nominal growth rate of fixed assets investment in the whole society reached 33. 1%, and the growth rate of 20 10 investment will continue; Judging from the growth rate of consumption, in June 2009, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was118 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and the annual consumption growth rate will remain at 16% and 20 10 years. From June 5438 to September 2009, the growth rate of imports was negative 20.4%, and the growth rate of exports was negative 2 1.3%. However, since August, the trend of import and export has narrowed, and the foreign trade situation of 20 10 will improve.

◆ Several issues worthy of attention.

Inflation problem

20 10 on the one hand, the strong recovery of domestic demand, the high growth of money and credit, and the further reform of the resource and energy price system will all form the kinetic energy to push up prices again; But on the other hand, there are also some factors that restrain inflation. Therefore, under the comprehensive influence of the two factors, the inflation problem of 20 10 will not be very prominent, but the pressure to start inflation may be significantly enhanced in the second half of the year.

(B) the real estate problem

At present, people are increasingly worried about the "bubble" of real estate. In the first three quarters of 2009, the sales price of houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities nationwide increased by 1.9% year-on-year. House prices are rising rapidly, investment speculation is often greater than consumption, and the characteristics of virtual assets will be obvious. Policy orientation to solve the real estate "bubble": first, pay attention to and control the negative impact of virtual assets in the property market on the macro-economy; Second, effectively increase the supply of ordinary commodity housing and support residents' self-occupation and improved housing construction; Third, encourage residents to obtain more property income by investing in the real economy; Fourth, use taxation, finance and other means to curb the demand for investment housing.

(c) structural adjustment.

1, to increase residents' income and expand domestic demand as a breakthrough.

The key to the current structural adjustment is to start with the final consumption demand. First, pay close attention to adjusting the national income distribution structure and form a reasonable income distribution mechanism for residents. Adhere to the direction of marketization and innovate the distribution mechanism of production factors according to their contributions; Establish a guarantee mechanism for the growth of residents' property income; By raising the salary of low-income groups, we will increase the proportion of labor remuneration in the initial distribution. Second, improve the national social security level as soon as possible and expand the coverage of social security. Finance should change to public finance more quickly; Constantly improve the rural social security system and reduce the uncertainty of rural residents. Third, reform the existing dual distribution mechanism of urban-rural division. Formulate public policies that can mobilize the city government to take the initiative to accept farmers' enthusiasm for entering the city; Actively establish the social security system and public service system for urban migrant workers; Establish a compensation system for landless farmers.

2. Comprehensively intensify the adjustment of industrial structure.

First, improve the market mechanism by further deepening reform. The government should focus on perfecting the market mechanism; By setting technical indicators such as equipment scale, energy consumption and pollutant discharge as the market entry threshold. Second, accelerate the contribution rate of technological progress. Finance at all levels should shift the focus of policy support to structural adjustment in time.

strategic emerging industries

Seven industries, including new energy, new materials, life sciences, biomedicine, information network, ocean engineering and geological exploration, meet the development conditions of strategic emerging industries. The policy orientation of cultivating strategic emerging industries is: first, accelerate the formulation and implementation of industrial revitalization and development plans. Second, increase government investment in science and technology. Third, encourage enterprises to expand investment subjects and introduce venture capital. Fourth, cultivate new growth points of key industries.