Hongyuan apartment property

In the real estate market that everyone is concerned about, three parts are mentioned.

1, solve the outstanding housing problems in big cities.

Housing is related to people's livelihood and welfare. We should adhere to the position that houses are used for living, not for speculation, and adjust measures to local conditions to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

2. We should attach great importance to the construction of affordable rental housing.

Accelerate the improvement of the long-term rental policy, gradually make rental houses enjoy the same rights in enjoying public services, and standardize the development of the long-term rental market. Land supply should be tilted to the construction of rental housing, and the land use plan for rental housing should be listed separately, and the use of collective construction land and idle land owned by enterprises and institutions should be explored to build rental housing. Both state-owned enterprises and private enterprises should play a functional role.

3, reduce the burden of housing rental taxes and fees, rectify the rental market order, standardize market behavior, and rationally regulate the rent level.

The economic work conference at the end of the year is the highest-level economic conference every year. Generally, it is held at the end of each year from 1 1 to 65438+2, and the meeting time generally does not exceed four days.

This meeting has two major functions: one is to judge the current economic situation. Second, it is the most authoritative weather vane for formulating macroeconomic policies for the second year.

Limited by space, we focus on the new formulation of the real estate market: solving the outstanding housing problems in big cities.

It has become the norm that there are more people and fewer houses in big cities.

Shen Wan Hongyuan's research shows that from the perspective of improved housing demand, the per capita living area in China is 32.9 square meters, and the living conditions are close to those in Britain and France, which is better than that in Japan and South Korea, which is 20 square meters per capita.

On the face of it, our house seems to be well-off and completely adequate.

However, the shortage of housing in first-and second-tier cities has not been alleviated. The per capita housing area in Beijing is 3 1.5 square meters, 28 square meters in Shenzhen and 24 square meters in Shanghai. Due to the scarcity of land resources, the per capita housing area in first-tier cities is less than the national average, and there is demand for improvement but limited by supply.

Economist Li Xunlei mentioned a set of figures in a report: the sales area of commercial housing in China has remained at around 654.38+07 billion square meters for three consecutive years. If it corresponds to residential sales, the annual sales of real estate area can probably accommodate more than 40 million people, and this level has been maintained for three years.

In other words, within three years, the houses sold will be enough for 65.438+0.2 billion people to live in.

In 20 17-20 19, the population entering the city was less than 20 million, and most of these 20 million people poured into first-and second-tier cities.

In recent years, with the efforts of Hangzhou, An, Ning, Yong, Guang and other places to "grab people", there are more and more big cities with "zero threshold", and the population of hot cities is as high as several hundred thousand a year. However, the land supply in the core areas of big cities is limited after all, and it is inevitable that there are not enough houses to live in.

These redundant houses are actually built in small cities, those unknown new urban areas and development zones.

The data shows that in recent years, the construction area of first-tier cities accounts for less than 6% of the country, second-tier cities account for about 28-29%, and cities below the third line account for 65%-66%.

There are plenty of houses in small cities, but the population runs to the first and second lines. This is the "mismatch between supply and demand" that Prynne has been telling everyone.

Under the situation of "limited supply of residential land+continuous inflow of population", how to alleviate the housing contradiction?

The answer is: renting a house.

It is not the first time to develop the rental housing market. In recent two years, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced several pilot cities for housing leasing, which basically achieved full coverage of the first and second lines, but the effect did not meet people's expectations.

The reason is that there are too few rental houses and too few choices. After all, the volume of public rental housing is limited.

Second, it is easy to settle down because the real "right to rent and sell" has not been realized, and going to school is still a long-standing problem.

Third, the rental market is still dominated by individual housing, tenants are in a weak position, and there is no expectation of long-term stable residence.

The meeting focused on these aspects.

For example, long-term rent, public services have equal rights.

Note that this sentence is the first sentence about the real estate content at the meeting, which can be said to directly hit the "pain point" of the property market.

In recent years, the household registration policy has become more and more relaxed, and the threshold for most first-and second-tier cities to settle down has been as low as secondary schools, making it easy to settle down.

However, various cities continue to introduce purchase restriction policies. Most people go to the streets as collective households to settle down, work in cities, pay social security and individual taxes, which is in line with the years of settlement, and finally use these conditions to buy commercial housing.

Everyone knows how different children are when they go to school, whether they have a house or not.

Also, after returning to work in March-April this year, many tenants who returned to the city were prevented from entering by security guards because they were not owners. The landlord broke the contract because he didn't want the tenant to live. Only when they stand in the cold wind and feel the homeless people, do they understand how important a piece of paper is.

This requires the implementation of "equal rights for renting and selling". Now the degree is getting tighter and tighter, and the local area is also very difficult. So the meeting said "step by step". On the one hand, the government will continue to invest in education. On the other hand, it is necessary to introduce supporting measures to do everything possible to protect tenants' rights and interests, so that the whole society can reverse the cognition of tenants' weak position.

Prynne told everyone that the trend of the real estate market is one sentence: home ownership, but home ownership does not necessarily have property rights

In the past, people paid attention to "property rights" when buying a house. Even if you buy a house, you won't rent it, but the property rights definitely belong to them. Subconsciously, they contain the motives and ideas of "realizing profit" in the future.

However, the concept of housing speculation focuses on the word "housing".

Everyone has a place to live, maybe affordable housing, maybe public rental housing, maybe an "old house" in an old community, maybe a long-term rental apartment. The property right is not necessarily their own, but tenants and homeowners enjoy equal rights such as education and medical care.

Yes, this is the well-known "Singapore model".

There are about 1.46 million houses in Singapore, of which 1 10,000 is more than 70%, and private houses only account for more than 20%. Generally speaking, the price of new units is only one third of the market price of private houses.

Rich people have money and want to buy luxury houses and commercial houses. No problem, there is no price limit, but they have to bear high property taxes.

For the vast majority of low-and middle-income people, living in low-rent housing provided by the government has convenient transportation, complete facilities and subsidies. Rich people can live in luxury houses such as swimming pools and gyms, but low-income groups, which account for the vast majority of the whole society, can live with dignity.

On the one hand, the system of commercial housing bought casually by rich people is not limited to purchase, but is subject to property tax and vacancy tax. Holding for a long time means losing money.

On the other side are low-cost affordable housing and rental housing. Although the property, supporting facilities and residential environment are not top-notch, there will be no shortage of school districts, hospitals and social security.

The conference described to us is such a vision.

To achieve this goal, it is necessary to "tilt the land supply to the leased land".

Last time, in the article on interpreting the "14th Five-Year Plan" real estate, Prynne had a dialogue with you. Our real estate market has a dual structure. Urban land is owned by the state, which can be auctioned and auctioned after storage, and rural land is owned by the collective. In order to protect the red line of cultivated land, it cannot be marketized.

For local governments, while selling commercial clothing and residential land at high prices, huge income is used to supplement finance. On the other hand, the land for infrastructure and industrial and mining storage is sold at low prices to seek GDP growth.

The city itself has so much land. On the premise of protecting the red line of cultivated land, most of it is used for transferring industrial and commercial land and residential land. What can be used to build a rental house?

From this point of view, it can be predicted that in 20021year, especially in the first-tier cities with shortage of housing, the supply of leased land will be more and more, and the urban areas, suburbs and outer suburbs will be covered. We will wait and see.

In addition to the way of urban land storage and re-circulation, collective land entering the market is also the core measure to expand the rental housing market.

Regarding the changes in the land market, Prynne has explained to you many times in her article.

From August 2065438 to August 2009, collective land was allowed to enter the market, which cleared the legal obstacles.

The new Land Management Law, which was implemented in 2020, added "collectively-operated construction land that has been identified as industrial, commercial and other business purposes in the overall land use planning and urban and rural planning, and has been registered according to law, and the land owners can hand it over to units or individuals for use through transfer or lease".

That is to say, starting from June 5438+1 October1this year, collectively operated construction land, homestead and agricultural land entered the market and began to be implemented nationwide.

Note that the nature of these collective land entering the market will not change, nor will it be used for building businesses and houses, but only for rental housing and affordable housing. This will not impact the original commercial housing system, but also increase the volume of rental housing.

Low rent, stable long-term rental expectation, improving the social status of tenants and increasing the supply of rental housing can solve the "housing shortage" in big cities and then "reshape" the property market.

Think of real estate as a big ship, which has deviated from the preset channel in the past 20 years. We have seen the madness of people buying houses with leverage, and we have also witnessed the helplessness of ants wandering in big cities. Now, it's time to change.