What impact does the financial crisis have on China's macro-economy?

The impact of the US financial crisis on China's economy in September 2008 seems unusual to the US financial community, just like a domino. Famous American financial institutions closed down one after another: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were already in trouble, were taken over by the US government on the 7th; Merrill Lynch promised to go to Bank of America on June 6, 2004; Lei Brothers 6+05 declared bankruptcy; On 6+06, AIG was in a hurry; Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley had no choice but to transform into ordinary commercial banks on the 26th. It is also the largest savings and loan bank in the United States. In addition, Bear Stearns, the fifth largest investment bank in the United States, was acquired by JPMorgan Chase in March this year because it was on the verge of bankruptcy ... When a series of financial events followed one after another, the global economy, which advocated the dollar-dominated market, was completely facing a huge crisis! As an important part of the global market, the extent to which China market is infected in this process has become the focus of attention from all walks of life in China. First, the impact of the US financial crisis on China's economy. As the world's leading currency, the US dollar has always been in a dominant position in the world economic system. Therefore, the impact of the US financial crisis on the whole world economy cannot be ignored. After China's entry into WTO, China's economy is becoming more and more global, and the American financial crisis will inevitably bring some influence to China's economic development. First, the impact on China's financial industry. Affected by the American financial crisis, the risks and uncertainties faced by the global economy have increased. China has not been spared from this disaster. In the process of crisis spreading, the United States has taken various measures to prevent economic recession, such as interest rate cuts, capital injection and financial subsidies. These policies have greatly aggravated the global liquidity problem. Coupled with the upside-down interest rates between China and the United States, the expectation of RMB appreciation remains unchanged, which cannot stop the inflow of international hot money into China, making China once again a safe haven for international capital preservation and appreciation, and China's investment in US dollar assets is at risk. Of China's $0.8 trillion foreign exchange reserve assets, about $0.8 trillion is currently invested in US Treasury bonds and institutional bonds. Among them, China holds 300-400 billion US dollars of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac-related bonds, accounting for nearly 20% of the official foreign exchange reserves; China Commercial Bank holds $25.3 billion in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac-related bonds; China Commercial Bank holds about $670 million in bonds related to the bankrupt Lehman Brothers; China Investment Company holds 9.9% shares of Morgan Stanley, an American investment bank; Lehman Brothers owes about $275 million to Citigroup's Hong Kong subsidiary. Bank of China new york Branch also took the lead in providing Lehman Brothers with a loan of US$ 50 million. The turmoil in the American financial market will inevitably lead to the decline in the price of asset collateral, making it difficult to realize assets. At this time, the crisis of payment will turn into a crisis of liquidity. Second, the impact on the real estate industry. In this financial crisis, the real estate industry is bound to be greatly affected. First of all, in the case of the sluggish domestic property market, American investment banks have recently sold their properties in China. For example, Morgan Stanley, a famous Wall Street investment bank, sold some residential projects in Shanghai. In addition to Morgan Stanley, Citigroup plans to sell a residential property in Shanghai. This is a chain reaction based on the problems of the American financial system. Although China's economy is not fully integrated into the world economy, it is also closely related to the world economy. Therefore, selling projects by American investment banks in China may accelerate the decline of China's real estate. Secondly, the impact of the financial crisis on China real estate is also reflected in the blow to the confidence of buyers, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. In August, Modern International Market Research Company conducted random street visits to 9 17 citizens in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Beijing and Shanghai. Among them, 72% of the respondents have low confidence in the property market. Only 14% of the respondents think that house prices may still rise after the Olympic Games, 37% expect to fall, 35% think it is basically flat, and 14% is unclear. At present, for the international investment banks on Wall Street, it is imperative to sell real estate to raise funds and seize cash to wait for future investment opportunities. The problem is that the collective selling of investment banks, in turn, further affects the confidence of the market. If confidence falls further, the retreat of investment banks will be extremely difficult. Third, the financial crisis makes real estate financing more difficult. Bank loans to real estate companies are declining. The financing channels of listed real estate enterprises through creditor's rights and equity have basically been blocked, and it is basically impossible for unlisted real estate enterprises to raise funds through public offering of shares. Overall, the real estate industry is in a dilemma. A few days ago, Zhong Wei, director of the Financial Research Center of Beijing Normal University, presided over a report entitled "2008 China Real Estate Industry Fund Report", showing that the real estate industry fund gap is expected to be 673 billion yuan this year. If the real estate industry encounters mid-term adjustment in 2009, the funding gap will reach 929 billion yuan. If there is a short-term adjustment, the funding gap will also reach 492.5 billion yuan. According to data from the People's Bank of China, in the first half of this year, bank loans to real estate enterprises fell by 30% to 399 billion yuan. Third, the impact on import and export. In China, which is gradually integrated into the global financial system, the mode of economic development is still export-oriented, with the total import and export value exceeding 60% of GDP. With the end of American citizens' borrowing consumption pattern, "Made in China" has been affected. Import and export trade is very important to China's economy. Last year, 2.5 percentage points of economic growth was driven by imports and exports, while the actual growth rate of exports from June to August this year was only about 3%. Export: According to the import and export data of the General Administration of Customs, the growth rate of China's foreign trade export slowed down obviously in the first eight months of this year. As the United States is the largest export market for China's goods, the growth rate of China's foreign trade exports, which surged once in June and July, will be tested again. The decline in external demand means that the demand of foreign consumers for high value-added products and low value-added products decreases at the same time. In this environment, exporters may not have the motivation to innovate technology, but are forced to maintain market share by lowering product prices, which may lead to further deterioration of the terms of trade of China's export enterprises. Import: The impact of the financial turmoil is closely related to the exchange rate of the US dollar. At present, almost all commodities in the international market are priced in dollars, and the strength of the dollar trend determines the level of commodity price trend. From the observable data, the prices of crude oil, iron ore and other commodities have shown a downward trend due to the recent reversal of the US dollar, which is good news for China, which needs a large number of resource products. However, the repeated turmoil in the US financial market has seriously affected the trend of the US dollar exchange rate and the confidence of holders, and the US dollar has been weak in the short term. As a result, the prices of crude oil, iron ore and other resource products will be pushed up again, and the cost of importing commodities denominated in US dollars in China will also be greatly increased. Second, the enlightenment of American financial crisis to China's economic development. The American financial crisis is called "once in a hundred years" by Greenspan, which shows that the crisis is very serious. Fortunately, due to the cautious pace of China's participation in globalization, it has largely avoided the direct impact of the US financial crisis; However, some aspects that triggered the financial crisis deserve our consideration, so as to draw some enlightenment that is beneficial to China's economic development. First, we should attach great importance to the risk of the real estate market and its possible diffusion effect. The all-round crisis in the United States may even end the existing financial system, which originated from the bubble of real estate prices. We should see that the real estate market has become the biggest economic and financial risk in China. In China, real estate investment accounts for 1/4 of the national fixed assets investment, and loans related to real estate account for 1/3 of the total bank loans. Real estate prices may fall across the board. Compared with the stock market, the consequences of falling house prices are much more serious. Therefore, stabilizing the real estate market should be one of the goals of the current macroeconomic policy. Second, we should strengthen the supervision of financial derivatives. Financial derivatives are a double-edged sword. Their innovation could have dispersed risks and improved the efficiency of financial institutions such as banks. However, when the risk is large enough, the chain of risk dispersion may also become a channel to transmit risk, which is fully illustrated by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. The subprime mortgage crisis can also be said to be a manifestation of market failure, and the lack of supervision or loopholes in the US financial system is hard to blame. China's financial regulators should take a warning and have the ability of early warning for similar situations. At present, China is encouraging state-controlled commercial banks to carry out business innovation and product innovation. The lessons of the United States warn us that while developing financial derivatives, we must strengthen the corresponding supervision to avoid over-exploitation of financial derivatives, so as to control the scale of risks. Third, accelerate the pace of China's economic transformation. China's economic growth pattern in the past 30 years has provided a way out for the rapid growth of industrial production capacity relying on investment and export. This year, the central government proposed to transform China's "export-driven" economy into "domestic demand-driven" economy. At this time, it coincided with the financial crisis, and China's export enterprises suffered heavy losses. Therefore, there is no choice for transformation. We must strengthen the growth of domestic demand through further reform, so that China's economy can be driven by the growth of domestic private consumption in the future. Otherwise, China's economy and society will face severe challenges. At the same time, enterprises should take precautions, open up new export markets and export some high value-added products that are less affected by financial fluctuations. In particular, we should avoid vicious export competition, change from quantity competition to brand competition as soon as possible, and avoid exchange rate risk in the choice of export settlement currency. The current economic globalization makes the spread of this financial crisis deeper and wider than any previous financial crisis. For China, the level of domestic economic globalization is relatively low, and its financial control and management ability is relatively weak. This may be the "good luck" for China to be marginalized by the financial crisis, and it is also an urgent problem for China's economy. China should learn from the financial crisis, deepen reform, strengthen supervision, improve its ability to cope with the financial crisis, and make China better and better on the road of world economic globalization.